Wasn't That Special?

I worked feverishly last Saturday morning to complete my "2011 Irish Could Be Special" post before kickoff, so that I would have the right to bask in the glow of my own genius once the season was officially underway and had begun to unfold exactly as I had foretold.  Because that's why bloggers blog.  Well, the Irish performance wasn't exactly "special" in the way I had expected.  Saturday Night's "special" was more like this:

After watching the USF debacle I am having a very hard time deciding which was more bizarre: Two stadium evacuations due to lightning? Or the performance of the Irish on the field?  What follows here are my thoughts about what went down, as briefly as I can put them down.  Which is never brief enough, which is why I should quit doing this and get a life.

1.  It wasn't as bad as it looked and felt in the moment.  The Irish out-gained the Bulls by a factor of 2-to-1, 508 yards to 254 yards.  Although the performance was marred by atrocious lapses, you can't get too despondent over an offense that compiles 500+ yards, including 100+ yards and a 5.0 yards per carry average by the feature back.  The running backs had holes to run through, the quarterbacks generally had time to throw the ball.  What the QBs did with that time is another story.  The defense, in addition to holding USF to 254 yards, also allowed only one extended drive and yielded just one offensive touchdown.  That's a formula for success. South Florida's average gain per offensive play was just 3.5 yards, while ND had a 6.5 yard average gain per offensive play.

2.  In my "Irish Could be Special" season preview one common theme was that I expected the Irish defense to really be the backbone of this team and the key to its success.  The USF game was exactly the scenario I was contemplating.  The offense was struggling mightily to put points on the board, but the defense was stout and kept the team in the game.  Unfortunately, the offense was simply so inept that no amount of great defense could salvage the situation.  The "O" won't be THAT bad in the weeks to come, and this defense is good enough to win games for us.

3.  One really good thing I saw in the course of the game was the ability to make adjustments.  Early in the game the edge defenders were regularly losing contain and giving up some big plays around the end.  That wasn't happening any more in the second half.  The adjustments were made, the defensive ends/linebackers kept contain, and the same plays that hurt us in the first half were turned inside and snuffed out for short gains in the second.  As we move through a schedule that has Michigan's Denard Robinson and the twin option attacks of Navy and Air Force, the ability to adjust and play proper, disciplined assignment football will be critical.

4.  The one thing I didn't see from the defense was the big play - more specifically, getting the key turnover.  That was tied to a general lack of heat on USF QB Daniels, who the Irish sacked just twice for -7 yards.  While sound assignment defense is good, I really expected our defense to be more aggressive and disruptive.  Maybe we were being a little too cute with the game plan and saving some of those defensive wrinkles for Michigan?

5.  It really isn't fair to bash the entire offense for what happened on Saturday.  The O-line played a very good game, with only a couple of significant breakdowns that I recall.  As mentioned above, the running backs had room to move, the QBs had time to get the ball out.  The problem was limited to everyone on offense who actually touched the ball.

6.  I am guessing that Theo Riddick hasn't slept very well the past three nights.  His play on Saturday was awful.  Theo is a dynamic and exciting threat with the ball in his hands, which is why Coach Kelly has him returning kicks and punts in addition to being the number two wide receiver in the offense.   But if #6 can't figure it out and hold onto the ball, he's going be watching from the sideline.  Next man in.  I am wondering if Coach Kelly hasn't put too much on Theo's plate, and if we need to find someone else for punt return so Riddick can focus on his wide receiver duties.

7.  I feel a little bad for Jonas Gray.  His fumble (resulting in a record-long fumble-return TD) was a mistake, but I didn't think that it was completely egregious.  He was actually holding the ball pretty well.  Only when he was being held up by several USF defenders was one player able to really dig in and pry the ball loose.  Did anyone else think the referee was a little slow to blow the whistle on that play?  I thought Gray's forward progress was pretty clearly stopped.  And how is it that nobody in a gold helmet was in the area of the fumble to make the tackle and prevent any return at all?  Too much standing around.

8.  I mentioned in my season preview that I don't know who our third running back is, and also that I didn't know who was going to replace Robert Hughes.  The Gray fumble highlighted both issues.  Cierre Wood (who played a great game) is an exciting back.  He runs incredibly hard.  But that is a good news / bad news situation.  His hard running produces yards and points for the offense.  But it also wears him out.  He seems to need a lot of "breathers", and I am worried that he could get hurt.  He is not a bruiser.  He's tall and angular and reminds me of DeShaun Foster, who fought injuries throughout his short NFL career.  When he needs a break, Jonas Gray seems to be the only option right now.  Gray is not as dynamic as Wood, nor is he the power back that Hughes was.  The Gray fumble came in the type of goal-line situation that we saw Hughes in last year.  But I don't think Gray is going be a success in that role.  The point is, I think we need to see what our options are at running back after Wood and Gray, and develop that depth in a hurry.

9.  Speaking of the Gray fumble.  It occurred on 3rd down and goal to go from the 1-yard line.  Notre Dame had six Red Zone opportunities on Saturday and netted just two touchdowns, both of which came in the 4th quarter.  I haven't had the time to do a thorough analysis yet, but at some point I am going to take a hard look at Red Zone performance to get a feel for whether the Red Zone is an Achilles' heel for Coach Kelly's offense.  Has anyone seen a good analysis of that question?  To me, when you're trying to throw the fade route to Floyd on 3rd and goal you've run out of good ideas.  That damn fade route is such a low-percentage play, yet we run it all the time.  And we run it when everyone in the stadium knows we are going to run it.  It's a lousy call.  Roll the quarterback out, drag three receivers across the end zone, hit the open guy or run it in yourself. 

10.  I feel bad for Dayne Crist.  He has worked his butt off to come back from two knee surgeries and has given Notre Dame football his heart and soul.  Everyone says he is a great guy and an awesome teammate.  But I don't think he's going to make another start at quarterback for the Irish.  Although Dayne has the physique and the big, strong arm of the prototypical NFL quarterback, it doesn't appear that he has the calmness under pressure that makes some players "gamers."  It is said of the great ones (Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Joe Montana, Wayne Gretzky) that they experience the game in slow motion.  They are able to scan the field of play and clearly see what everyone is doing, and understand what his teammates and the opponents are going to do next, and then make the right play calmly and (seemingly) effortlessly.  One does not get that sense when watching Dayne play QB.  He just seems tight out there.  Trying way too hard not to f*$% it up.  Getting even tighter after he makes a mistake.  Although Dayne throws a beautiful ball, he takes too long to make the decision of where it needs to go and/or he misfires and throws an inaccurate pass resulting in an incompletion.

11.  Tommy Rees, who will make the start against Michigan, seems to be a "gamer."  He isn't perfect.  He has shown the ability to make mistakes and throws too many interceptions.  He isn't as tall as you'd like and he doesn't have the running ability or the rifle arm you'd like.  But he sure seems to have a better grasp of the offense than Crist, and he is definitely much quicker and more decisive about getting the ball out of his hand.  He seems to have no fear, and total faith in the offense.  If the pre-snap read calls for a pass to the tight end going down the seam with three defenders converging, then by God that's where the ball is going and he trusts his own ability to get the ball where it needs to be, and he trusts the receiver will make the play. He seems to have the memory span of a goldfish. (Goldfish were long thought to have such short memory spans that every lap around their tiny tank was filled with exciting "new" discoveries.  Scientists have since proven this to be untrue and unfair to the noble goldfish, but I have always loved this scientific tidbit and I cling to it for the purposes of this post).  Tommy is able to shrug off a bad play and approach the next snap as though the previous play never happened.  He is also very accurate with the ball.  The announcers on the broadcast were too distracted by Coach Kelly's teaching moment with TJ Jones to pick up on it, but did anyone else notice that on the Jones deflection and interception Rees literally stuck the pass in TJ's earhole?  Given that TJ wasn't looking for the ball and therefore did not adjust to the throw, that was very impressive.

12.  The team was 5 of 14 on 3rd-down conversions.  Not counting the 3rd-down rushing attempts, Dayne was 0 for 5 converting 3rd down via the pass.  He had one 4-yard completion on a 3rd-and-9, three incomplete passes, and one interception in the end zone.  That's four punts and one INT on five attempts to move the chains on critical 3rd-down.  Rees was 3 of 4 converting 3rd-downs via the pass.  He had one incompletion that set up the missed field goal attempt.  The other three times he completed passes to move the chains.  What is really remarkable when Tommy is in the game is how seldom he puts the team in a 3rd-down situations.  He led a 12-play, 76-yard drive that had only two 3rd-down plays: a 3rd-and-4 (converted via the pass) and a 3rd-and-goal from the 1 (converted by a Wood TD run).  He also led a 10-play, 99-yard drive that had only one 3rd-down play (3rd-and-9, converted by 12-yard pass to Eifert).

13.  So Tommy Rees is the Irish quarterback for now.  Did I mention that Rees was the OC Domer Player of the Year for 2010?  Just a little tidbit for you.  The question I have now is:  Who is number two?  If Tommy struggles, or gets hurt, is it Crist again?  Is the gap really that big between Crist and Hendrix or Golson?  If Tommy is the guy, the fact is that Dayne is a senior and is not likely to be your starter again.  When does Coach Kelly start getting Hendrix more practice reps, and game reps, to see if he gives the Irish a better chance to win that Crist?

14.  Much has been made of Coach Kelly's somewhat animated coaching style on Saturday.  Okay, I admit that I thought the guy was going to blow an aneurism and drop dead on national television.

I love Kelly coaching his team hard.  And I really, really love reading his lips when he is sharing a heartfelt moment with his team.  But even I thought he was over the line on Saturday.  Potential recruits don't want to see that.  Kelly lost his poise, and I thought he was unprofessional.  My guess is that Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick has addressed this issue.  Can I just say one thing though?  There are critics out there who have opined that Notre Dame should fire Kelly for treating his players this way, asserting that such behavior is unacceptable and should not be tolerated by a Catholic university.  When I first read this line of argument, all I could think is that the Catholic Church defended and protected pedophile priests for decades, if not longer.  Yet an angry football coach is beyond the pale.  Really?

15.  I didn't get the chance to put some of the final touches on my "Could Be Special" post Saturday, as I ran out of time.  I received some comments about being a "homer" and calling for a 12-0 season.  Those who have been with me a while know that I always put confidence level rankings next to my pre-season predictions.  My confidence level indicates how likely I feel it is that the Irish will win each of the games.  For example, my confidence level against USF was 70%.  Obviously, the result on Saturday fell within the 30% likelihood that we would lose.  I actually felt pretty good about my confidence level even after the game, because what were the odds, going into that game, that Notre Dame would commit the string of errors necessary for a South Florida win?  What were the odds of a 96-yard fumble return touchdown?  It has never even happened before.  The odds that David Ruffer misses a short field goal?  The odds that Harrison Smith gets personal foul penalties on back-to-back plays?  The odds that all those things happen in the same game?  And yet, despite all the disaster, Notre Dame lost by 3 points.  But to finish the thought, my confidence levels for the twelve games on the Irish schedule (posted here) are (in percentages):  70, 85, 70, 80, 90, 75, 70, 80, 90, 85, 85, 65.  If you add all those percentages up (using decimals, so 70% becomes .70), the result is a likely total of 9.45 wins.  So while I did think that Notre Dame had a shot at winning each of its twelve games, the math makes clear that a much more likely result is 9 or 10 wins.  With just a little luck we can still hit that target.  If it's ten wins instead of nine, this team can still hit my prediction of playing in a BCS bowl game.  It is much better to lose early than late, and I believe that South Florida will make some noise in the Big East and this loss, as painful as it was, won't hurt that much in the final polls.  But make no mistake, the loss to USF reduces the margin for error.

16.  Michigan is up next.  One thing we know for sure:  The Irish have more finish in them than the Wolverines.  The Big House experienced the same weather that caused the evacuations of Notre Dame Stadium, and it had to be emptied as well.  But unlike the Fighting Irish, the Wolverines decided to cancel the rest of their game against Western Michigan with 1:27 remaining in the 3rd quarter.  How embarrassing.

17.  The Wolverines had a fairly easy go of it against the Broncos, besides not having to actually play four quarters.  Denard Robinson was pretty balanced run versus pass, and didn't break any huge runs.  The key to the game on Saturday will be whether Coach Diaco has figured out what went so horribly wrong in trying to stop Robinson last season, and whether the Irish defense can make amends.  I expect the Irish to bounce back and play well under the lights in Ann Arbor.

Go Irish!  Beat Wolverines!               

2011 Irish Could Be Special

With kickoff for the new season less than 3 hours away, it's time to get myself on the record with my expectations for the 2011 Fighting Irish.  Bottom line:  BCS Bowl or Bust.  The 2010 edition of the Notre Dame football team compiled an 8-5 record that could have been (and arguably should have been) 11-2.

There is no way to argue the losses to Stanford and Navy.  Stanford was a very good team and there was no doubt that they were much better than N.D. last year.  The final score was 37-14, but the Cardinal was up 34-6 with less than eight minutes to play.  Navy gashed the Irish for 367 yards rushing yards, the most ever by Navy against Notre Dame.  The Middies put some wrinkles into their option attack that Notre Dame was unprepared for and unable to adjust to.  It was probably the worst coaching performance so far in the young Notre Dame career for Coach Kelly and his staff.

But the other three losses were all games that should have been won, and which almost certainly would have been won by the more seasoned Irish team that played the final four games of the season.  Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson had 502 total yards against N.D., and yet the Irish still led the game 24-21 before Robinson's game winning touchdown with 27 seconds left in the game.  Had Dayne Crist not been sidelined by a strange head injury for most of the first half, or had the defense been able to collect itself and contain the dynamic Robinson even a little bit, Notre Dame wins that game.

The Michigan State loss in overtime on a fake field goal was an even battle that could have gone either way.

The Tulsa loss was a gut-wrenching affair.  Even before kickoff the team was in emotional turmoil following the tragic death of Notre Dame student-videographer Declan Sullivan.  Although the Irish were in control for much of the game, Dayne Crist was knocked out of the game early due to a season-ending knee injury, and Tommy Rees, while throwing for 334 yards and 4 TDs, also threw 3 interceptions, including one that was returned for a Tulsa TD.  Add a Tulsa punt-return TD, and a failed two-point conversion returned by Tulsa for 2-points, and you get an awful loss.  It was a sloppy game marked by the loss of our starting quarterback in an emotionally difficult week.  In almost any other circumstance you have to figure the Irish find a way to win that game.

So, an 8-5 year that ended on a high note with four straight wins, including a thumping of The U in the Sun Bowl, could have been even better.  What does this mean for 2011?  With most of the key pieces coming back for another year in Coach Kelly's system, and with a very manageable schedule, I expect the Irish to win 10 games (and possibly more) and play in a BCS Bowl Game, with an outside chance of playing for the National Championship.

On offense, Dayne Crist has been tapped as the starting quarterback.  This shocked nobody, although I expect that Crist will be playing on a very short leash.  Before being knocked out of the Tulsa game last season on his second freaky non-contact knee injury in two years, the Irish were a disappointing 4-4.  Although Crist's numbers over those first eight games were actually pretty good (about 60% completions for over 2,000 yards and 15 TDs), a starting QB gets judged (or should be judged) on wins and losses, and on leadership.  A great quarterback exudes confidence and inspires the whole team to a higher level of play.  I don't feel that the Irish were getting that confidence and inspiration from Dayne in 2010.  To me, Dayne too often looked a little overwhelmed last season, with just a little bit of a "deer in the headlights" quality to his play.  By contrast, Tommy Rees, although lacking that stud QB physique and rifle arm, generally seemed very calm and in control of the game (even while throwing multiple interceptions).  The team certainly played better as a whole when he was the starter, and I am hesitant to just shunt aside they guy who led the most impressive four-game winning streak seen in Domerland in many years.  As alluded to above, Tommy did have a penchant for throwing a few more picks than did Dayne last year.  Crist threw 7 INTs in 294 attempts in 2010, compared to Tommy's 8 INTs in just 164.  Folks tend to focus on that stat, which is fair, but which needs a little context.  Three Rees INTs were in the Tulsa game, a game in which he had no idea he would be getting meaningful snaps.  He came off the bench and threw for over 300 yards and for 4 TDs, along with his 3 picks.  Three more picks came against USC in the L.A. Coliseum, in horrible conditions.  On the flip side, Rees' completion percentage on the season was actually better than Crist's (61% vs. 59.2%) and he threw 12 TD passes in just 164 attempts, while Dayne had 15 TDs in 294 attempts.

So while there is something noble in allowing Dayne to be the starter again coming off his injury, he needs to play well right away.  This team is good enough to make some noise nationally if the QB gets the job done.  I don't believe Coach Kelly will be as patient as he was last season, knowing that Rees is a proven winner off the bench.  In his press comments Coach Kelly has said some very glowing things about how Dayne has progressed since last year.  Am I the only one who read between the lines and heard the inference that Kelly was not terribly impressed or pleased with Dayne last season?  And it doesn't end with Crist and Rees.  Andrew Hendrix showed some impressive ability in the Blue & Gold game, and you can't help but be excited about Everett Golson.  Golson fits the mold for Kelly's offense of being a good passer who can drive a stake through the defense's heart with his legs.  It seems to me that the Irish have done well in the past with exciting dual-threat QBs from South Carolina.  The Irish seem to have four quarterbacks who could come in and be very effective.  I can't help but contrast this situation with what the team faced going into the 2007 season when we had four quarterbacks and were wondering if ANY of them could play.  (Frazer, Jones, Sharpley, Clausen).

I am excited about Cierre Wood at running back, spelled by Jonas Gray.  But I honestly don't even know who our third RB is.  Coach Kelly stated in one of his pressers that he would put his first 22 against anyone, but that depth was an issue.  Looking at the running back position, I can see what he means.  Cierre is a dynamic playmaker, and Gray has some toughness and reliability.  But those guys need to stay healthy.  I am very concerned that we don't have anyone on the roster to replace Robert Hughes.  Hughes was a real leader and embodied toughness when the Irish needed it.  Who is going to be the guy when we need that late, dominating drive to win the game like the Irish did at USC last year, with Hughes and the O-line imposing their will?

At receiver, we have Michael Floyd, Theo Riddick, and TJ Jones.  That is an awesome starting trio.  Floyd will be a key to our offensive success, but I hope he has actually gotten his off-field act together and we have seen the last of his immature behavior embarrassing the team and the University.  As at RB, the depth behind the starting receivers is a pretty steep drop-off as far as game-breakers go.  We have guys who can be be effective, but neither Toma nor Goodman strikes fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators like our starters can.  Tight end is not a feature position in Kelly's offense, but those duties should be very capably filled by Eifert and Ragone.

The offensive line appears to be very talented, and deep.  This line should give the offense some stability and give the team the chance to be effective from the get-go, in both the running and passing games.  They should also enable to Irish to control the ball and the clock when needed.

It's the defense that really has me excited bout 2011.  Although the D had some egregious low points in 2010 (Navy, Michigan, Tulsa), this unit clearly gelled late in the year allowing an average of less than 10 points per game in the final four contests (3, 3, 16, 17).  The performances against USC and Miami were dominant and inspiring.  Most of that unit returns, and for the most part the key losses will be very capably replaced.  On the back end, I am very comfortable with Robert Blanton replacing Darrin Walls at corner.  I am a little unsure about the two safeties.  Harrison Smith is a ball hawk and can make plays, but he is also the same guy who fell down at the end of the USC game and almost gave up the game-winning TD but for a lucky dropped ball.  There's a lot of Zibby in him, risk-reward.  Jamoris Slaughter and Zeke Motta are both upper-classmen with ample playing time and experience who should play well, but both players have been a bit under the radar and I don't have a real feel for my confidence level at that second safety position.

The front seven of the defense should be dynamic, disruptive, and at times flat-out dominant.  For the first time in a very long time the Irish D should be talented, deep, and stout at the point of attack.  This unit should be very difficult to run on, and the recruitment and development of explosive pass rushers will make opposing quarterbacks miserable.  Unlike the depth issues on offense, the problem on defense will be finding enough playing time for all the talent.  It will be fun to watch the upper-classmen rise to their potential (Manti Te'o, Ethan Johnson, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Darius Fleming) while also seeing the young guns flash their talent (Aaron Lynch, Louis Nix, Stephon Tuitt, Prince Shembo, Troy Niklas).

As this season unfolds, I expect the signature unit of the team to be the aggressive, stifling defense, rather than the efficient, potent offense.  There will be weeks when the offense sputters a bit, but the defense will be consistently good and will key Irish success in 2011. 

Special teams will be very solid.  Ruffer, Tausch, Turk all return to capably share the kicking/punting duties.  Theo Riddick has been named to return kicks and punts.  He will be very good as a returner, but I admit to being nervous about having such a key offensive player at risk of injury in the return game.  The fact that Riddick is by far the best man for the job confirms the lack of depth at RB and WR. 

I'll give a quick bite on each of the games for this season, as well as my confidence level for each game, as is the custom here at OC Domer.

South Florida (9/3).  The Bulls are a talented team that has was somewhat inconsistent in 2010.  What worries me is their head coach.  Skip Holtz is a former Irish player, an ND alum who coached at ND under has Dad.  He "gets" Notre Dame and I have to believe this game is a big-freaking-deal for him.  He is also a terrific coach, as he demonstrated by his success at East Carolina, a team nobody had ever heard of before he got there.  But Coach Kelly has familiarity with Holtz as a coach from their time together in the Big East, and Kelly has the more talented squad.  The defense will key an Irish win, but I don't expect a blowout.  ND 24, USF 13.  (Confidence level:  70%).

At Michigan (9/10).  The Irish lost a bizarre game last year.  Crist was on the sideline for most of the first half with vision problems, Denard Robinson was inexplicably impossible to tackle, and yet the Irish were with 27 seconds of winning the game.  Michigan is undergoing a coaching change and has seen a lot of layer defections in the off season.  The Irish are a significantly better team than they were a year ago.  Michigan is in a tough transition.  Irish earn a workmanlike win.  ND 30, UM 20. (Confidence level:  85%).

Michigan State (9/17).  I'm guessing Brian Kelly will remember losing in OT on a fake field goal forever.  I'm also guessing it doesn't happen again.  Mark Dantonio is a heck of a coach, and MSU will be very good again this year.  They just seem to reload with more of the same each year.  This will be a physical battle, but the Irish D is more stout up front than in previous years, and the offense should have an advantage spreading the field against Sparty.  And this time the game is at our place.  Irish win another close game, 24-21.  (Confidence level:  70%).

At Pittsburgh (9/24).  Irish won a close one at home in '10.  Pitt projects to have a very good defense in '11, but have a new head coach and are learning a new offense.  I expect the Irish D to win this game for us as the Irish O struggles a bit.  ND 20, Pitt 10. (Confidence level:  80%).

At Purdue (10/1).  It's Purdue.  Back-to-back road games for the Irish, but talent will tell.  Irish win comfortably, 45-20.  (Confidence level:  90%).

Air Force (10/8).   Glad to be back home in the friendly confines, but maybe peeking ahead to the USC game, this could be a trap.  Air Force is very experienced, and they beat a Navy team that whipped the Irish in 2010.  But the Falcons will be coming off a road game at Navy, and playing their first game of the season on grass.  Uncomfortably close, the Irish win 20-13.  (Confidence level: 75%).

Southern Cal (10/22).  The Irish get two weeks to prepare.  This year both teams should have their starting QBs healthy, and it should be a battle.  Barkley is really good, but his supporting cast is young.  NCAA sanctions are hurting Trojan depth, but bowl ban turns this night game into a Bowl game for USC.  The atmosphere of the night game should be electric, and I expect the Irish defense to build on last year's success to win another low-scoring contest.  ND 24, USC 14.  (Confidence level:  70%).

Navy (10/29).  This is Bob Diaco's big chance to redeem himself after getting burned badly by the Middies in '10.  I think he does so.  Could be a letdown game after USC though.  I think the Irish solve that pesky Navy offense and overwhelm them, 27-14.  (Confidence level:  80%).

At Wake Forest (11/5).  I love this game, because I like playing top level universities that take the concept of sudent-athlete seriously.  But the Demon Deacons aren't very good.  Irish win big, 40-13. (Confidence level:  90%).

Maryland (11/12).  The Irish are rolling now.  I would predict another blowout, but the Terps have a new coach, Randy Edsall, who proved at UConn that he doesn't buy into any Irish mystique.  Irish win comfortably, 35-17.  (Confidence level: 85%).

Boston College (11/19).   ND beat up the Eagles pretty well in 2010.  No reason for that not to repeat.  ND 38, BC 20.  (Confidence level:  85%).

At Stanford (11/26).  If they had asked me, I would have gladly hosted Jim Harbaugh's going away party.  This could be a HUGE game for the Irish.  If all goes well, a win in this game sets the Irish up for a BCS Bowl game.  If all goes REALLY well, this could be a game to decide whether ND gets to play in the BCS Championship.  For Stanford, the game figures to be "big" but not "BIG."  The Cardinal's fate in the Pac-12 will already be set.  Win or lose, they either will or won't be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  If they are in the conference title game, they could be looking past the Irish.  If they aren't, then this is a consolation game.  I much prefer a first-year head coach to playing Harbaugh.  The Irish are a much better team than they were in week 4 last year, and Stanford figures to take a step back, even with Luck at QB.  Irish win a real battle, 27-24, and earn a BCS Bowl berth if not better.  (Confidence level:  65%).

Conclusion:  I see the Irish with the very real potential to run the table.  But there very few gimmee games on the schedule, and if they have a couple injuries or show up flat, they could lose three or four.  I would predict that the breaks beat the boys a couple of times, and they end up 10-2, playing in a BCS Bowl.

Sorry I don't have time for pictures, etc... but it's almost kickoff!  Go Irish!

Dusting Off the Crystal Ball

Happy August to all of you! It's been a little slow around here at OC Domer, but I've been busy with my day job and just couldn't bring myself to write yet another story about not-very-bright students getting arrested by not-very-bright Indiana law enforcement officials for underage drinking at an off-campus party. My thoughts on the situation haven't changed a bit since my last rant on the topic in September of 2008.

The only thing I would add is this: Coach Kelly, you obviously still have a lot of work to do to to in teaching your players the right way to conduct themselves. And yes, I do hold the football team, who are attending the University on full scholarship, to a higher standard than I do the rest of the student body. To me, this incident also shows a lack of leadership on the team. Were there no upper-class players there who were willing to tell the underage players that they needed to put down the alcohol and drink the un-spiked punch instead? A lot of work to do.

But back to the crystal ball. I am getting ready to begin the arduous process of writing the OC Domer Pre-Season Spectacular post for 2010. In doing so, I went back and dusted off my pre-season predictions for the past several seasons (since the inception of the blog), and the results were so hilarious that I had to share them with you. The point of this exercise is to hopefully give you a good laugh, and to also serve as a slap across the face to me that will hopefully knock off my rose-colored glasses before I make any predictions for 2010.

2007 Predictions:

Final Results: With young but talented players all over the field, and with new defensive coordinator Corwin Brown, the Irish basically win the games they won and lose the games they lost in 2006 (UCLA being the exception). But we don't get blown out by anyone. We aren't a Top 5 program yet, but at 10-3 overall, we end up just outside the Top 10 in the final polls of the season. Entering 2008 we are a Top 10 team fighting to become an elite Top 5 program.

Conclusion. So, this is how I see the season playing out. Is it a prediction? Not really. It's just a thorough explanation of where I see the program and what I think I'm going to see. Might Charlie's Fighting Irish exceed my expectations? They could. The offensive line could be dominant, the QB play spectacular, the young receivers amazing. The front seven could be energetic AND stout. We could beat Michigan and UCLA, we might even surprise everyone with an improbable win over the Trojans. On the other hand, the O-line might not be what we need it to be. The young QBs and receivers might sputter. The front seven might give up too many yards in the running game. If that happens, we could lose to Georgia Tech, Penn State, MSU and BC. It could be a disaster. But, as one sage once said "That's why they play the games."

2007 Actual: 3 wins against 9 losses. Blown out by Georgia Tech (33-3), Penn State (31-10), Michigan (38-0), USC (38-0), Air Force (41-24). A triple-OT loss to Navy. The only wins against UCLA, Duke, and Stanford. A total, unmitigated disaster.


2008 Predictions:

Final Thoughts. Do I really think Notre Dame will finish the 2008 season 11-1? No. While I sincerely believe the Irish could, or even should, win each of their first 11 games, I also expect that a team as young as the Irish will have some untimely penalties and turnovers, or just come out flat, and let a couple of games get away from them. Counting the likely loss to USC, I expect nine wins, give or take one. Of course, a lot has to go right for nine wins to happen. But after last year I figure the Irish are due a little luck.

2008 Actual: 6 wins against 6 losses in the regular season, plus a nice win the the Hawaii Bowl to end our bowl game losing streak. This team was all over the map. Strong wins over Michigan, Purdue, Washington. Awful losses to North Carolina, Boston College, Syracuse. Only an impressive bowl win over Hawaii saved Charlie Weis' job.

2009 Predictions:

I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.

2009 Actual: 6 wins and 6 losses, including four losses in a row to end the season against Navy, Pitt, U-Conn, and Stanford. Adios Charlie.

Conclusion: I cannot be trusted to evaluate the fortunes of the Notre Dame football team. For 2007, 2008, and 2009 I predicted the team would win 9, 9, and 9 regular season games, which translated into 3, 6, and 6 actual regular season wins on the field. Not very impressive. But I'll give it a go anyway later in the month. Don't say you weren't warned!

As an aside, I challenge all my Irish blogging brethren to post their past prediction performance along with their predictions for 2010, so we can have total transparency, just like the Obama administration.

IBG: Life After Michael Floyd

Wow. It's been way too long since my last post, I'm embarrassed to say. Part of the problem was a business trip to Pittsburgh last week that threw me off my normal rhythm. But part of the problem has been a certain degree of befuddlement about the Irish that left me unsure of where I stand on this team. I wrote a quick post right after the loss to Michigan which pretty well captured my thoughts at that moment, and despite winning last week in a game that had very much the same feel as the Michigan game, my feelings haven't really changed much.

I feel like I owe you all a decent analysis of both the Michigan and Michigan State games, but I don't have the time to do so in a lot of detail. Here's the nutshell:

• The offense is playing well enough to win a lot of games. Passing game is strong, run game is acceptable.

• The defense is not playing well enough to win a lot of games. The vaunted Jon Tenuta "pressure" is rarely getting home, and the result has been unacceptably large yardage and scoring totals for two teams led by inexperienced quarterbacks. Michigan gained 430 yards (6.1 yards per play) and scored 38 points. Sparty gained 459 yards (7.1 yards per play) and scored 30 points.
  

• In each of the last two games four of the top five tacklers for the Irish were defensive backs. What's up with that?
  

• It's still the little things that kill you. Notre Dame had nine penalties for 75 yards against Michigan, and had ELEVEN penalties for 99 yards against Sparty.
  

• Special Teams play hasn't been special, although they were significantly better against Sparty than they were against Michigan. Against UM the Irish lost the field position battle by 8 yards (Irish ASFP of their own 29, Michigan at their own 37). Against MSU the Irish barely won the battle of ASFP (own 29 versus own 26). Funny how often winning the field position battle correlates to winning the game.
  

Bottom Line: If the Fighting Irish expect to meet any of their goals this season, the defense has to get a whole lot more stingy than it's been to date.

With Michigan and Michigan State finally out of the way, we can now turn our attention to the Purdue Boilermakers. This week's Irish Blogger Gathering is hosted by Frank V. at the UHND Blog. After you finish up here, head over there to read all the IBG posts for this week. This week's questions:

1. The obvious question for the week, how does Notre Dame deal with the loss of Michael Floyd? What wide receiver steps up? How, if at all, does the offense change?

Frank's right, as he usually is. This/these is/are the obvious question/questions. The answer has to be that the Irish handle the loss of Floyd in 2009 much better than they did in 2008. When Michael got hurt last season the Irish offense curled up into the fetal position and sucked it's thumb until he returned for the Hawaii Bowl. In his absence the Irish offense averaged 1.9 yards per play against USC, not even gaining a first down until the last play of the 3rd quarter. With Floyd watching from the sideline Notre Dame suffered a humiliating loss to Syracuse.

The primary problem the Irish have without Michael Floyd is that the offense goes from having two very dangerous deep threats to just one, Golden Tate. While ND has several quality receivers who can step into the mix, none of them have so far shown the ability to stretch the field vertically like Floyd and Tate can. It's an easy call for opposing defenses to double-cover Golden Tate and dare the other Irish receivers to beat them.

I expect to see more of Robby Parris and Duval Kamara, along with a heavy dose of tight end Kyle Rudolph. But the only other wide-out we have seen so far who has the ability to threaten the defense deep is freshman Shaquelle Evans. Physically he has the size and speed that reminds one of Floyd, although he hasn't yet shown the same play-making ability.

I hope that Coach Weis keeps the offense fundamentally the same as the first few weeks, stretching the field vertically with Tate and (probably) Evans. The difference will be that, in the absence of Floyd, Jimmy Clausen won't be able to just throw the ball up in the air and expect #3 to come down with it. He'll have to actually wait for a receiver to get open, and thus more throws will come over the middle of the field to Rudolph, Kamara, and Parris once Tate and Evans have lured the coverage deeper.

It would be a mistake to decide that this is Purdue, we should be able to handle them, so let's just work on our run game. That could well work for one game, but Coach Weis needs to let Clausen and the receivers run the entire offense so that they are ready to execute the full passing attack against Washington and USC without Floyd to lean on. This week will be a really good test of Jimmy Clausen's development. Can he work through his reads and deliver the ball to the open receiver without committing costly turnovers?

2. After seeing three games from Notre Dame in 2009 have your expectations increased, decreased, or remained the same?

At the conclusion of my season preview post I included the following thoughts on season expectations:

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations [...]. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

I think my feelings remain about the same. Notre Dame "should" win at least nine games. Ten or more wins would be a very good season. Less than nine wins would be very, very disappointing. I guess what has changed for me is my level of optimism that they will actually exceed nine wins. I still think they will, but the poor overall play of the defense and the loss of MF has reduced the margin of error for this team to almost nil.

3. The last two years against Purdue, a Notre Dame player has had their breakout game. In 2007 it was Golden Tate and in 2008 it was Armando Allen. Who do you think could have their breakout game against the Boilermakers this year?

I really, really hope that Shaquelle Evans or another wideout has the breakout game. For the longer term prospects of the team, we need to find another deep threat ASAP. But I'm not counting on it. I think the more likely breakout player is Jonas Gray. Armando Allen is nicked up and may not play, and almost certainly will not play as much this week. In his place Jonas Gray will get consistent carries, he will get into a rhythm, and he will grind down the Boilermakers. A slightly more conservative game plan will also alter the pass/run mix and mean more carries for Gray. I see him having a 100-yard game.

Another two possibles: Tight end Mike Ragone and linebacker Manti Te'o. Coach Weis has always liked two-TE sets, and the loss of MF is the perfect time to get really creative with his formations and personnel. Purdue knows that Kyle Rudolph can be trouble and will give him a lot of attention, opening things up for Ragone. Catch the ball when it comes your way Mike!

Besides Brian Smith, the Notre Dame linebackers have under-performed so far this season. If the starters aren't going to make any tackles or get to the opposing QB, why not put #5 in there and turn him loose? Let's see what the young phenom can do.

4. How would you grade the three new coaches on this year’s staff based on the first three games?

Offensive Line coach Frank Verducci gets an "A-". Jimmy has stayed upright and very productive. The running game is more consistently productive than any other time in Weis' tenure. The "minus" is for too many stupid penalties.

New Running Backs coach Tony Alford gets a "B+". The Irish running backs seem to be running with an entirely new level of confidence and decisiveness this season. Armando Allen is no longer falling over on first contact, and Jonas Gray doesn't even look like the same guy.

Defensive Line coach Randy Hart gets a "C-". His guys have been largely invisible so far this season. It has been so bad that when Ian Williams actually made a tackle last week I was genuinely surprised to hear his name called.

5. Your thoughts on Golden Tate’s stage dive into the Michigan State band? Was he trying to avoid running into the band? Was the whole thing intentional? Little of column A, little of column B?

It was totally hilarious. When I saw it, all I could think was "Lambeau Leap." Love the exuberance. Glad nobody got hurt. I always worry about guys getting a sheet music stand in the eye when they go into the band.

6. How has your opinion of the Notre Dame schedule changed from how you felt about it in the pre-season?

It doesn't look such a cakewalk now, does it?

• Michigan is MUCH better than expected.
• Washington BEAT the Trojans.
• Navy almost beat Ohio State.
• U-Conn, Stanford, Pitt all look to be legit.

The only team that looks less formidable than expected is USC who, despite losing to UW, has gone into the horseshoe and beaten Ohio State.

7. Should Jimmy Clausen be getting more hype for the Heisman?

Not yet. Jimmy has played well so far. But, seriously, throwing the ball up in the air knowing that Floyd and Tate are going to come down with it for a touchdown looks too easy. This week can be the start of Clausen's Heisman campaign if, without Michael Floyd to lean on, he can carve up Purdue for 300+ yards and three or four TDs. If Jimmy can make Robby Parris and Duval Kamara look like All-Americans, then any Heisman talk will be deserved.

Go Irish! Beat the Boilermakers!

P.S., If you are looking to buy or sell any Notre Dame football tickets, please visit our site sponsor, NotreDameTickets.com. They'll hook you up!

Notre Dame Opponent Poll after Week 1

Frank V. over at UHND.com is going to be publishing a weekly poll this season ranking from 1 through 12 Notre Dame's 2009 football opponents, and he has honored me by asking me to participate as one of the voters in the poll. The results of the poll after week 1 can be found at this link. In the name of transparency, my ballot for this week's poll appears below, with limited comments.

1. USC. (Any questions?)
2. Navy. Threatening to push Ohio State into overtime at the 'shoe was by far the most impressive performance by any Irish opponent this week. Navy may move down my list next week, but this week they get some respect at OC Domer.
3. Pittsburgh. Tough call, but beating Youngstown State 38-3 is slightly more impressive than beating Montana State 44-3. I think. So Pitt slides past Michigan State this week.
4. Michigan State. I hope nobody pulled a hammy versus Montana State. Sheesh.
5. Stanford. Put a whooping on a Pac-10 team, even if it was Washington State.
6. Michigan. Nice win over Western Michigan, I guess. Certainly the Wolverines looked a lot better than I expected.
7. Boston College. Who knew Northeastern has a football team?
8. Washington. Very nice game against the visiting LSU Tigers. They could be rated higher, but they still have to prove that last season is behind them, and SEC teams often look like crap when they leave the friendly confines of the Confederacy.
9. Purdue. I have to put them somewhere.
   
10. Connecticut. It may have been Ohio U., but they won. Former Irish QB Zach Frazer threw 3 INTs.
11. Nevada. They may be a better team than they showed Saturday. But based on Saturday they have to go here.
12. Washington State. Manhandled by Stanford. Not an awful game, but I can't justify putting them ahead of anyone.

After week 1, the Irish schedule doesn't look so weak anymore. Navy looks tough, Washington appears to be hugely improved. Not counting Notre Dame's victory over Nevada, the remaining eleven Irish opponents were 8-3 on the weekend, with one W and one L coming from Washington State and Stanford playing each other. Throw that game out and the remaining opponents were 7-2, albeit against suspect competition. I'll post my ballot in the UHND.com opponent poll each week, if I get around to it.

Notre Dame Shaking Down the Thunder in 2009

Put up or shut up. That seems to be the consensus among the Irish faithful and the college football cognoscenti regarding Notre Dame's 2009 football season. The Irish return almost the entire offense from a year ago, led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a junior heading into his third year as a starting QB who completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards last year with a 25/17 TD/INT ratio. Clausen will be playing behind an offensive line that has already amassed 100 career starts between them, which puts them among the most experienced offensive lines in the country. That line experience should translate into time to throw the ball for Clausen, and a new offensive line coach, Frank Verducci, will hopefully mean improved O-line play in the running game.

If Clausen does have time to throw, and he should, that means trouble for opposing secondaries. With Golden Tate and 2008 OC Domer Player of the Year Michael Floyd at wide receiver and Kyle Rudolph at tight end, Notre Dame has among the best receiving corps in the nation. All three players can stretch the field (they average 18.6, 15.0, and 11.7 yards per catch, respectively); none can be effectively covered by a single defender. And you can't double-cover all of them. If these three stay healthy, Clausen and the Irish offense should put up Brady Quinn-esque numbers in 2009. Tate, Floyd and Rudolph are complemented most notably by junior Duval Kamara (who has terrific size but needs to have a bounce-back year) and freshman Shaquelle Evans who has looked impressive in camp and is really pushing for early playing time.

The ability to stretch the field with the passing game should really benefit the Irish running game, led by 2008 leading rusher Armando Allen (134 carries for 585 yards; 50 receptions for 355 yds), who has been announced as the clear starter by Coach Weis. Allen will be accompanied in the backfield by James Aldridge (91 carries for 357 yds in '08), now the starter at fullback. Robert Hughes (112 carries for 382 yds in '08) will be first to spell Allen, but sophomore Jonas Gray and exciting freshman Cierre Wood will both see carries in 2009. The expectations with the running game are that the vertical threat of the passing game prevent defenses from stacking 8 defenders at the line of scrimmage, thus giving the running backs some room to work. Key will be whether the new offensive line coach can solve the short-yardage woes that have plagued Charlie Weis' offense since he arrived in South Bend. If these experienced backs, running behind an experienced group of linemen, can finally be counted on to reliably move the sticks in short yardage situations, thus sustaining drives and keeping our defense fresh, Notre Dame fans should be treated to a very enjoyable year.

In the off-season Charlie Weis shuffled the duties of his coaching staff a bit (he now has an associate head coach and two assistant head coaches), but the most significant result is that Jon Tenuta is now the defensive coordinator. Most expect that this will therefore be an aggressive, attacking defense that attempts to dictate the tempo of the game to opposing offenses and keep opponents back on their heels. In some respects the approach can be high risk - high reward, as the frequent blitzes Tenuta employs leaves defensive backs working in single coverage. Fortunately, the Irish secondary looks to be top-notch this year and should be more than capable of handling the assignment. The loss of safety David Bruton to the Denver Broncos will certainly be felt, but safeties Kyle McCarthy (110 tackles in 2008, most ever by an Irish defensive back) and Harrison Smith (57 tackles in '08 was 4th on the team) should fill in ably. Notre Dame is deep at the corners, led by Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton. If teams are going to move the ball on Notre Dame, it will not be through the air.

As in previous seasons, the concern with the Irish defense is up front. Once again, D-line is considered to be talented and scrappy, but probably a bit undersized. Nose Tackle Ian Williams weighs in just north of 300 lbs, but the other projected starting defensive tackle, the very disruptive Ethan Johnson, weighs just 275 lbs. The defensive ends, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal weigh in at 265 and 246 lbs. These players are all well suited to Jon Tenuta's aggressive defensive system, but it remains to be seen how stout they can be against teams that are content to run the ball straight at you. The defensive front seven have to show the ability to take on blockers heads-up and stuff a hole. The past two seasons have seen too many defenders trying to run around blocks, leaving big seams for opposing ball carriers to run through until a defensive back came up to make a tackle.

The top tackler among defensive linemen last season was the departed Pat Kuntz, whose 42 was 6th best on the team. The next D-lineman in tackles was nose tackle Ian Williams with 40 (8th best in '08). Digest that for a minute. Notre Dame's top five tacklers in 2008 did not include a defensive lineman. You might argue that it's the scheme, that the D-line is supposed to occupy blockers and let the linebackers run to the ball. I'd buy that, if the stats backed it up. But the top two tacklers for ND last season weren't linebackers. They were safeties. And it wasn't close. Kyle McCarthy led all Irish defenders with 110, David Bruton was 2nd with 97. Linebacker Maurice Crum was a distant third with just 65 tackles. Notre Dame's front seven needs to be much more effective this year stopping the run, so that the defensive backfield can worry less about run support and concentrate instead on defending the pass.

While the loss of Maurice Crum's leadership in the middle of the defense will be felt, the fact is that the guys replacing Crum are much more talented. Super-recruit Manti Te'o will get on the field early, likely playing alongside junior Brian Smith and sophomore Darius Fleming, although the competition for starting linebacker jobs is intense this season, and that's a good thing. Whoever plays, the linebackers have to step up this year in both stopping the run without DB help and in getting home and sacking opposing quarterbacks on Coach Tentuta's blitzes.

On special teams, freshman Nick Tausch came into camp and took control of the kicker position, winning both the kick-off job and the place-kicking job. I am very anxious to see the young man kick. Lack of a consistent place-kicker has plagued the Irish for two seasons, and the inability to kick the ball into the end zone for touchbacks has been frustrating. If Nick Tausch can bring Notre Dame's not-so-special teams up from "awful" to "average" it will be a big boost to Irish fortunes in 2009. Eric Maust remains the ND punter.

So how do I see this team shaping up in 2009? As I wrote in an earlier post:

With respect to Notre Dame football, there just isn't much uncertainty this year, other than the ultimate uncertainty of how many wins the Irish will put in the books. [...] For 2009, there just aren't many unknowns. The players in 2009 are almost without exception the same guys we watched lose at home to Syracuse and then win impressively in Hawaii. Same quarterback, same running backs, same linemen, same receivers. Same defensive players, with the exception of an opening at linebacker and an opening at safety.

So, given that we're going to see what is essentially the same group of players, each of them a year older, a year more mature (physically and emotionally), a year more experienced, what can we realistically expect?

The 2008 Fighting Irish posted a 6-win, 6-loss regular season and had a dominating performance in winning the Hawaii Bowl 49-21. That's a 7-6 overall record. Digging just a little deeper, however, one quickly learns that the 2008 squad, from a talent perspective, should have posted a 9-3 regular season record. The losses to Michigan State (argh), Boston College and USC were never really in doubt. But ND blew double digit leads against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. A team with a little more experience, and a little more maturity, doesn't lose those games in 2008. So while they fully earned their 6-6 mark, from a talent and ability standpoint the Irish were arguably playing at the level of a 9-3 squad.

Is it unreasonable to expect the 2009 Fighting Irish, with the added maturity and experience, to play at least at that 9-3 level this season? I do not think that's unreasonable at all. And that's before you even begin to look at the 2009 schedule.

Let's go ahead and look at that schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).


Sept. 5: Nevada. The danger in this game is that the Irish fail to take this good team from the wacky WAC seriously enough while looking ahead to the Michigan game. In 2008 the Wolf Pack's offense was potent and balanced, led by QB Colin Kaepernick who is a true dual threat with 1,100 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing last season. 2009 will be his third season as a starting QB. The Irish defense's speed and athleticism should be able to slow Kaepernick enough to allow Jimmy Clausen and the ND offense to win the game by scoring at will against a poor Nevada defense whose main weakness is in the secondary. Key to the game will be the Irish defense getting off the field on 3rd Down and the Notre Dame offense controlling the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. (Isn't that always the key?). The point is, Nevada is dangerous and if you don't take care of business they are good enough to ruin your entire season in Week 1. I will be watching this game closely to see if the 2009 Irish dominate a less talented team like they should, rather than playing down to the level of the opponent and keeping the game "interesting" far longer than they should (see: 2008 season opener against San Diego State). Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%

Sept. 12: @Michigan. It was a party in Notre Dame Stadium as the Fighting Irish blew out the Wolverines in what must have been a cathartic 35-17 victory following the travesty that was 2007. While Notre Dame looked impressive that day, they were helped by 6 UM turnovers and actually had some problems slowing down the Wolverine running game in the person of Sam McGuffie. I expect UM to cut down on the turnovers and put up a better fight in the Big House, but they are still in a serious re-building mode and are expected to start a freshman at quarterback. Add to their already substantial problems the exploding controversy about the Wolverines and Dick Rod being a bunch of cheaters and I expect UM to be distracted and confused enough for the Irish to get a nice road win in a physical game. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Sept. 19: Sparty. I hate those guys. Coach Weis is 1-3 against Michigan State which, to coin a phrase, is not good enough. In 2007 MSU beat ND by 17 pts. In 2008 the margin was 16 pts. This is not progress. Notre Dame's problems against Sparty have been in the trenches. MSU has been more physical than the Irish on both sides of the ball and that has told the tale. ND has been unable to run the ball with any success, and has had difficulty contending with the Spartan power rushing attack. This game will be an important test against a very good team. Will the experienced Irish O-line finally be able to assert itself in the running game? Will the Irish front seven on defense be able to man up and compete with MSU's power game? MSU will be a very good team and probably the second toughest game on the Irish schedule. But Sparty will badly miss the leadership of talented QB Brian Hoyer and the production of RB Javon Ringer. Irish win a battle at home. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%

Sept. 26: @Purdue. Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 last season. Purdue's top three rushers, top two passers, and top two receivers from that team are gone, to be replaced by untested players led a by a first year head coach. The defense does return a lot of experience, and talent, but Purdue is going to have a tough year. The Irish defense should force some turnovers and lead Notre Dame to a convincing win in West Lafayette. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%






Oct. 3: Washington. The once proud Huskies were winless in 2008 and own a 14-game losing streak. But they got rid of Coach Tyrone Willingham and brought in former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to be the new head coach. No doubt they will eventually get better, but the Irish crushed UW last year 33-7 in Seattle, and one would have to expect a similar result when the Huskies visit Notre Dame Stadium in '09. Sarkisian will have the team playing with more heart and pride, no doubt, but even with touted QB Jake Locker healthy again, Notre Dame fans know all too well how hard it can be to overcome a Ty Willingham-created talent deficiency. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%

Oct. 10: -Bye-. Great spot for the bye week. Five games played and USC next up on the schedule. Gives the coaches and players a chance to re-group, get healthy, and take some time to prepare for the Trojans.

Oct. 17: USC. Toughest game on the schedule, again. It's great to get USC in Notre Dame Stadium. Unfortunately the Trojans are coming off a bye week as well. But they may well need it, having already played Ohio State and Cal, both on the road. A third tough road trip this early in the season could have the boys of Troy feeling a little ragged. Of course, USC is loaded, particularly at running back and receiver. But they just announced that true freshman Matt Barkley will be the starter at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. Recalling last year's painful game in the Coliseum, the Notre Dame defense actually played pretty respectably against the Mark Sanchez led Trojan offense. But the complete inability of the Irish to move the ball meant the defense was on the field all night, usually with their backs against the wall. Given the loss of so many 2008 Trojan defensive players, the Irish offense should fare better in 2009 (It really hurt that Michael Floyd was injured and unable to play against USC in '08). Likewise, the Irish defense should have more success this year playing against a true freshman at QB. I still can't predict an Irish victory, given that the gap between the two programs is too wide to close in the space of one season. Two things can really help Irish chances in this game. First, the students MUST go to the game. October 17 falls on the first weekend of Fall break, and it would be tough to win the game if the students go home for break and leave empty seats in the stadium. The team will be pumped up if everyone stays for the game and gets LOUD. Second, pray for snow. Or at least a really miserable cold, rainy day. Those Southern California kids HATE the cold. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 40% (i.e., 40% chance of Irish win)

Oct. 24: Boston College. My irritation at losing to Boston College (6 straight) is probably second only to my irritation at losing to Sparty. BC has a new head coach, although he's been in the program for a while, in Frank Spaziani. They do return some experience for '09 (13 or 14 starters depending upon who you read), but will be breaking in a new quarterback and installing a new offesnive system. The Irish lost to the eagles at BC in '08 by a 17-0 score, in a lackluster game featuring awful playing conditions and reportedly an Irish QB battling the flu. Despite the score, ND had more yards and more first downs than BC, but Jimmy Clausen threw four interceptions that killed off any chance te Irish had of scoring. Bring this game home to the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium (and hopefully in front of the students on Fall break who stayed on campus or came back early to cheer on the team), eliminate the INTs, and sprinkle in a little payback, and Notre Dame should FINALLY get over the hump against the Eagles. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Oct. 31: Washington State (@ San Antonio). That's right, San Antonio. wtf? Presumably, a lot of die-hard Notre Dame fans living in or near Texas will pack the Alamo Dome (or wherever the game is being played), giving the Irish a nice "home field" avantage for this neutral site game. I am also presuming that Charlie Weis will be using this game as a showcase of the program for Texas-based high school recruits and potential recruits. Otherwise this game makes no sense to me. All that said, the Cougars beat Portland State and Washington last season (in OT, at home). They lost every other game, most of them by very ugly lopsided scores. They'll be better this year (they would have to be, wouldn't they?), but they won't give the Irish much trouble. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%


Nov. 7: Navy. The Middies had a very nice 8-5 season in '08 under first year coach Ken Nimuntuukomuntotrklo, and gave the Irish a scare last season in a 27-21 ND win. But Navy has to replace all their top offensive weapons from '08 (rushing, passing receiving). They will play valiantly but lose to ND @ ND. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%


Nov. 14: @Pittsburgh. The third toughest game on the schedule, Notre Dame lost at home to the Panthers last season in quadruple overtime, 33-36, blowing a game they led 17-3 at halftime. This year the game is in Pittsburgh. The Panthers return nine offensive starters (but not LeSean McCoy), and four defensive starters (but not defensive leader Scott McKillop). It should be a real tester for the Irish on the road, but hopefully the desire to atone for last season's embarrassing collapse will be the difference. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%

Nov. 21: Connecticut. The Huskies lose their top rusher (Donald Brown, 2083 yards in '08) and starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen 48.8 pct., 869 yds passing) off a team that went 8-5 with a Bowl win last season. Starting at quarterback for U-Conn in '09 is a familar face - former Notre Dame QB Zach Frazer, who was 46 of 83 (55.4%) for 536 yds, 2 TDs and 6 INTs for the Huskies in '08. You may recall that Zach was the first big recruit to commit to Coach Weis after he took over at Notre Dame. Upon his transfer out of the program I wrote:

I can only wish Zach all the best. When they write the book on the Charlie Weis era, Zach Frazer should have a small chapter in it all to himself, as he was a pivotal character in the Weis story. Zach was the first big recruit landed by Coach Weis. Zach was the answer to the question: Will this former NFL assistant coach be able to bring premiere talent into the Notre Dame program when competing against experienced college head coaches in the recruiting wars? Zach Frazer was a high school junior with a big arm, big numbers, and big hype. He was rated four stars at both Rivals.com and Scout.com. His verbal commitment sent shock waves throughout the Notre Dame community and throughout college football. It served notice that Coach Weis was a serious, energetic, and aggressive recruiter. No longer would Notre Dame wait, and wait, and wait before finally tendering offers to 4- and 5-star athletes. From now on, we were going to get into the hunt early and force other programs to play catch up. With one verbal commitment from Zach Frazer, Coach Weis (and Zach) changed the perception of Notre Dame's talent level. Zach took the Irish from being a program of mostly 3-star talent with some 4-star athletes sprinkled in, to being a program with 4-star talent sprinkling in some 5-star players. After his verbal commitment, Zach continued to help build the program by actively recruiting other top talent to come to Notre Dame. [...] Prior to the arrival of Charlie Weis, Notre Dame was losing 1- 2- and 3-star quarterbacks to transfer when they learned they either weren't going to be the starter (LoVecchio) or weren't going to be the primary back-up QB (Wolke, Olsen). Notre Dame now expects to lose a 4-star quarterback who can't crack the top 3 positions on the depth chart. That is a dramatic change, and we ironically owe that change, at least in part, to Zach Frazer.

Frazer's 2 TD / 6 INT ratio last season is worth noting, since interceptions were a problem for him at Notre Dame as well. In the 2007 Blue & Gold game Zach was 0 for 4 with an INT, which set the table for his departure from South Bend. I'm guessing Coach Weis will be able to find some Zach Frazer videotape for Coach Tenuta to digest in preparation for the U-Conn game. U-Conn comes to Notre Dame after a bye week and they will be looking to get a BIG win for their rising program. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Nov. 28: @Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh has brought some toughness (one might say dirty play) to the Farm, and Stanford is no gimme for anyone. Notre Dame beat the Cardinal 28-21 in '08 in Notre Dame Stadium, so a road game against a team that returns 17 starters from last season, including all the key playmakers, is no picnic. Still, it is Stanford, who will be hosting the Irish the week after hosting the Cal Bears in the annual "Big Game." There's a significant chance that Stanford could have a letdown when Notre Dame shows up. This game reminds me of the 2005 game between these two teams. Brady Quinn's Notre Dame squad was highly ranked and traveling to Palo Alto in need of a win to secure a berth in a BCS Bowl game. The game was a real battle, with the Irish coming out on top 38-31 and on their way to the Fiesta Bowl to face Ohio State. The '09 ND v. Stanford game could have similar implications. If Notre Dame has the kind of season they are capable of having, a win against the Cardinal could punch their ticket to a BCS Bowl game. In that case, I would expect ND to be very motivated, and to be playing very well if they are in that position. Stanford would be pesky but ultimately no match for Notre Dame. If, however, Notre Dame does not live up to expectations and needs a win against Stanford to earn a trip to a lesser bow game, and if Stanford could improve their bowl outlook with a big win, this game could be close again. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Conclusion: You've already heard all about the predictions of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook, who each have Notre Dame playing in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, so I'm not sure what else I can add. I am as optimistic as any Notre Dame fan, but even I don't predict an appearance in the Championship game. To get there would require a 12-0 season, which of course means beating USC, which I personally think is only about a 40% possibility. I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.

Fine, thanks. How's your summer going?

I know I've been remiss in not being more active on the blog, but I have two problems. First, the things that have really been getting me fired up are all political, and I don't want to subject all of you to a steady diet of Obama criticism with no football posts to keep things on an even keel. So I have held my tongue, so to speak. Second, it is July and nothing much is happening on the college football front. Of course, I could post every day just to keep my fingers in shape and to hear myself talk, but I prefer to write substantive posts that are thoughtfully reactive to actual events rather than manufactured topics designed just to keep you visiting the blog. But football season is approaching, the camps are getting ready to open, and I think I can just detect that "new season smell" in the air. Today I just wanted to get back into the groove by clearing the decks with a collection of quick thoughts that have been occupying my mind lately.

1. I listen to Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio as I drive to work each morning. Erik Kuselias is sitting in for Colin today, and he spent considerable time this morning talking about Florida QB Tim Tebow. He noted that Florida is favored by many to win the National Championship, and Tebow is favored to win the Heisman. If those things happen, Kuselias contends that Tebow would be the greatest college football player of all time, and that nobody else would even be in the discussion. I think Tebow is a very good quarterback on a great football team. Being on a great team gives you a chance to win National Championships. Being a very good QB on a great team gives you the chance to win Heisman Trophies. But being a very good QB on a great team does not make one the "greatest of all time." I like Kuselias a lot (very interesting guy, and very funny) but I think he is crazy on this topic. Off the top of my head I came up with about six players who are clearly greater than Tebow, and after a couple minutes research I rounded my list out at an even ten players. The following list is my quick and subjective opinion. I didn't even get into receivers, linemen, and defensive players. Just looking at QBs and RBs, here are my Top 10 College Football Players Greater Than Tim Tebow (In No Particular Order):

1. John Elway
2. Steve McNair
3. Colt Brennan
4. Billy Sims
5. Bo Jackson
6. Barry Sanders
7. Archie Griffin
8. Tony Dorsett
9. O.J. Simpson
10. Herschel Walker

How did I do?

2. I've been watching the Tour de France. Hey, It's freaking July! Alberto Contador is clearly the best rider this year. His performance in Stage 15, pulling away from the peloton on the final climb like the other riders were standing still was simply amazing. Lance Armstrong is riding very well and has an excellent chance of finishing on the podium in Paris, which in itself is very impressive. But Contador is the Big Dog now. By the way, Versus has been broadcasting the Tour in HD this year, and the French countryside is just beautiful. France has definitely moved up my list of places I want to visit.

3. Michael Vick is a free man, and the NFL Commissioner is expected to conditionally reinstate him very soon, permitting him to sign with an NFL team and go to camp, but not allowing him to play until after serving an additional four game suspension. Like a car wreck, I'm very anxious to see what happens with Vick. To me, he has paid his debt to society, so I don't have a problem with him playing football again. But I am very interested to see what team or teams are willing to give him a chance. How much will they pay him? What role will he play? How well will he play? To me, Vick's best asset has always been his speed and his running ability, and I think he'll be way behind the curve in the passing game. I think he can make his best contribution to a team as a return man and maybe a flanker/H-Back where the threat of a reverse or a Wildcat package would keep defenses off-balance.

4. Tom Watson, at 59 years of age, came within a gray whisker of winning the British Open last weekend. Great story. But did he or did he not just punk every other player in the PGA? How bad did it make Tiger Woods and every other young player on the Tour look to have gramps kick their collective ass around Royal Turnberry for four days?

5. The Over/Under win total lines for college football are starting to trickle out. So far, the O/U for Notre Dame is 8.5 games. I'll take the over. Notre Dame should win 11 games this year. Less than 10 wins may cost Coach Weis his job. To lose on the "over" the Irish would have to lose 4 regular season games. Where could those losses possibly come from? USC, Michigan, Michigan State, and ... B.C.? Pitt? Stanford? If Notre Dame loses four games against the 2009 schedule with this roster of players then new leadership would be required.

6. Where's Waldo? I think he's rooming with former USC quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate John David Booty. Do you remember how great J.D. Booty was at USC? How he was just waiting his turn to be the next Heisman Trophy winner at USC? Yeah, well he's still in Minnesota, sitting behind Tavaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and maybe Brett Favre on the Vikings' depth chart. I wonder if John David will give up his #4 jersey when Favre shows up in Mankato? And what about Heisman Trophy winner and National Champion Matt Leinart? Is he still sitting on the bench behind a 38-year-old grocery store stock-boy and Arena Football League league player Kurt Warner? Well, yes he is. All of which is a prelude to the question: How good is Mark Sanchez, really? Is he the next Carson Palmer? Or the next J.D. Booty? USC quarterbacks have the tremendous advantage of playing with a supporting staff of NFL-caliber players at every position. Their defenses are dominant. They are harassed in the pocket, and their receivers are generally wide open. They lose all those advantages at the next level. I still think Brady Quinn is better than any of the recent crop of USC quarterbacks, and I think we'll finally get the chance to see it this season. Go Browns!

7. Are you on Facebook yet? If not, you're just about the only one. Just a quick tidbit for you. My daughter will be a freshman at Notre Dame this year. (Woo-Hoo!). Earlier this summer she got her official Notre Dame e-mail address. The very first thing she did with it was to add it to her Facebook profile, so she could join the official Notre Dame network on Facebook. She also quickly joined the University of Notre Dame Class of 2013 group on Facebook. That group already has over 1,600 members. Think about that for a minute. Notre Dame enrolls about 2,000 students as freshmen each year. School doesn't start for this year's freshman for another month. There is no official University requirement or even suggestion that students should join Facebook. Yet 80% of this year's incoming freshman are already part of the ND Class of 2013 group on Facebook. That blows me away.

8. Speaking of Brett Favre. I really hope he plays. I love the NFL, although I'm not a huge fan of any particular team. I just love good games, and I love watching Brett play. I also hope he makes a decision soon, as I think it's a little unfair to the Vikes to keep them hanging this long. Of course, it has entered my mind that his "conflicting" emotions about whether he wants to play is really code for: "It's going to take more cash than what you've offered me to get me in purple."

9. I wrote previously about how cool it would be for Notre Dame to play Army in the new Yankee Stadium. Pencil it in. November 20, 2010. Road Trip!

10. Coach Weis and his staff have been working hard on the recruiting front, and the number of verbal commitments to the 2010 freshman class is already up to thirteen. This is great news as it shows that Coach Weis and Notre Dame can still attract quality kids to the University. I don't blog recruiting much, because (1) I have a life, and (2) I have a life. But seriously, it's a crapshoot. Projecting high school kids to the next level is very difficult. Kids mature at different rates. 5-star kids don't pan out. 3-star recruits surprise the heck out of you. Kids get hurt, buried on the depth chart, lost to academic or other problems. Think about this: We're all excited/anxious about how good Defensive End Justin Utupo will be and he won't set foot on campus until more than a year from now, and likely won't play significant minutes for two or three years. I'm still waiting to see how good Emeka Nwankwo, Steve Paskorz, and Mike Ragone are going to be, and they've been on campus since 2007. But I do have a couple thoughts on recruiting this year. First, a hearty OC Domer welcome to each of the thirteen verbal commits for 2010! I hope you all continue to feel the way you do about Notre Dame and honor your non-binding verbal commitment to the University. Second, I know it's early, and as I said I don't watch it that closely, but I get the sense this class so far is a little heavy on 3-star recruits and a little light on 4-star and 5-star players. Of the thirteen commits, we have one who is rated 5-stars on both Rivals and Scout, we have one who is rated 4-stars on both services. We have seven players rated seven total stars (4/3 or 3/4) on the two services, and six commits rated six total stars (3 & 3) on Rivals and Scout. I know the top 4- and 5-star kids tend to wait until later in the cycle to commit, but I would welcome someone pointing me to a good argument that we're right on target compared to Coach Weis' previous classes.

11. President Obama held a press conference earlier this week in which he urged Congress and the American people to pass a health care reform bill that hasn't even been written yet and with which not even he is familiar. In his remarks the President stated that two-thirds of the costs of implementing his proposed health care system would come from more efficiently utilizing the money that is already being spent on the system. In other words, the President is asking us to believe that the new system will be "revenue neutral" because a plan drafted by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and implemented by Barack Obama will achieve hundreds of billion of dollars' worth of improved "efficiencies" annually. When was the last time you heard of the government taking over a complex program and making it markedly more efficient? Are public schools more efficient? Are public hospitals right now more efficient? Does the Government erect buildings, stadiums, airports, etc... more efficiently than the private sector? But here's one data point to consider: In April, President Obama directed the members of his cabinet to find $100 million in budget cuts for 2009, and gave them a 90-day deadline to accomplish this task. At the time, everyone laughed because in the context of $1 Trillion stimulus packages, $100 million is a laughably small amount. Well, the 90-day deadline has come and gone and we're still waiting for the President and his cabinet to identify the $100 million in "cuts" for 2009. The White House has promised that the list of cuts is on the way. But the point is, $100 million is chump change, and the President is having a hard time finding $100 million in improved "efficiencies." If you can't easily identify $100 million is "savings" how do you expect us to believe you can magically produce hundreds of billions of dollars in annual savings in the health care sector? It is time for the American people to stop judging President Obama on his empty promises and to start holding him to account for his actual performance.