Defense Keying Irish Rebound

I just wanted to interject with some quick thoughts to get the blog caught up on the season so far.  Things have been busy at OC Domer HQ, as the OC Son has started his senior year of high school and is smack in the middle of the college applications process with all the essays to write, letters of recommendation to procure, meetings with clueless guidance counselors to attend, etc...  In fact we will be taking a road trip to look at a few more schools VERY soon, so I won't be able to blog much in the next several days either.

In my last post I dissected the brutal loss at Michigan, and hammered the defense pretty well for its 4th quarter collapse.  I am very happy to report that the "D" has taken that criticism to heart and deserves the bulk of the credit for the Irish wins over Sparty and Pitt.  These past two games played out much more like my pre-season vision for this team:

As this season unfolds, I expect the signature unit of the team to be the aggressive, stifling defense, rather than the efficient, potent offense.  There will be weeks when the offense sputters a bit, but the defense will be consistently good and will key Irish success in 2011. 

The impressive 31-13 defeat of the Spartans was NOT the result of brilliant offense, as the 31 points would lead one to believe.  It was sparked by a defense that completely took Michigan State out of their preferred game:  rushing the football.  MSU was held to just 29 net rushing yards, for an average of 1.3 yards per rush.  Even though MSU quarterback Kirk Cousins put up some decent numbers throwing the ball, he was harassed enough by an aggressive Irish defense to blunt his effectiveness.  Cousins was sacked twice and intercepted once, and Sparty scored just one touchdown (and one field goal) in five Red Zone possessions.  That's terrific defense.  Add in a Robert Blanton 82-yard interception return, an 89-yard kick-off return for a touchdown by George Atkinson III (where has GA3 been all my life?), and some efficient offense, and you have the recipe for a win.

Kudos to Robert Blanton for a most impressive game:  In addition to the INT and return, #12 had an 11-yard sack, two other tackles for loss, six total tackles, and three pass break-ups.  Dominant.

Perhaps we should add "total offense" to the list of irrelevant statistics in Coach Kelly's system. 

The Irish outgained USF 508-254, and lost.  They outgained Michigan 513-452, and lost.

Notre Dame was out-gained by Sparty 358-275, and whipped 'em. 

And ND outgained Pitt 398-268 and barely escaped with a win. 

I Tweeted after the Pitt game:  "Better to win ugly than lose ugly. But make no mistake - it was ugly."  Poring over the stat sheet, I don't see anything to change my initial impression.  A sack/fumble by Rees that results in a Pitt 3-0 lead.  On First & 10 at the Panther 24, Rees throws  an  interception at the 4-yard line, squandering yet another scoring opportunity.  Mrs. Domer wonders aloud "What must Dayne Crist be thinking?"  He was benched for throwing a single interception against USF, and Tommy has thrown six interceptions and lost three fumbles since then.

I was very worried by the success Pitt had in confusing Tommy by disguising the coverages until just before the snap, and I was even more worried by how long it took our coaching staff to make the necessary adjustments.  The Irish were very lucky that Rees didn't throw more interceptions, as he threw several balls right at Panther defenders that were dropped.  I was very unhappy that Tommy (and Kelly) kept trying to force the ball to Michael Floyd.  As much attention as #3 was getting, surely Riddick and/or Jones were wide open.  How about a pump fake to Floyd to draw the safety and a lob down the field to TJ Jones?  That should loosen the defense up.  But instead we kept throwing those maddening horizontal passes into tight coverage.  It was a flashback to the worst tendencies of Charlie Weis' offense.  Throw it down the field!!!

Or run it.  Maybe with Jonas Gray - who took his second carry of the game 79 yards to the house and was promptly placed in the Federal witness protection program.  What was up with that?  Against Sparty, Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray split the running load 14 carries to 12.  Jonas goes off for 79 yards on one carry against Pitt - was I the only one shocked by his speed? - and gets only three carries against Wood's 23 carries.  Did Jonas pull a hammy?  

Fortunately, while the Irish "O" was stumbling around, the defense was putting in a very solid day, holding the Panthers to just 2.7 yards per rush and just 3.8 yards per offensive play.  Pitt QB Tino Sunseri was sacked FIVE times.  He threw for just 165 yards, with 18 yards as his longest completion.  Pitt only got into the Red Zone twice, resulting in one TD and one field goal.

Eventually of course Coach Kelly and T. Rees figured something out and Tommy put together the game-winning drive which clearly illustrated why he remains the starter despite his rookie mistakes.  Down 12-7 in the 4th quarter, Rees and the "O" take over at the Irish 15-yard line.  Tommy goes 8 for 8 passing on the 85-yard TD drive, and tacks on a 9th completion for the 2-pt conversion.  I think the word Coach Kelly likes to use is "moxie."  Nice job by Rees, and by Riddick and Eifert who keyed the drive with multiple receptions each.

State of the game:  The 15 points scored by Notre Dame was the fewest en route to a victory since Sept. 2, 2006, when the Irish slipped past Georgia Tech, 14-10.

Bottom line:  For the past two weeks the Irish defense has kept the opponent almost completely in check, while the offense has been just efficient/productive enough to get the win.  I think this is the formula for Irish success this year.

Up next is Purdue.  According to the Sagarin rankings at USAToday.com, the Boilermakers (2-1) are the 88th-best team in D-I football, having played the 181st-toughest schedule in the country.  Notre Dame slots in at #25 according to Sagarin, and have played the 5th-toughest schedule in the country so far.  Nobody ranked above the Irish by Sagarin has played as tough a schedule as Notre Dame.

It's a prime-time ESPN game under the lights at Ross-Ade though, so you know the crowd and the Boilers will be jacked up.  Back-to-back roadies for ND.  I expect Purdue to put up a good fight for about a half, then reality will set in and the Irish will win comfortably.  I do think Coach Kelly will put a premium on taking care of the ball, so we might see a lot of ball control runs on the offensive side that will keep scoring down a bit as we rely on the defense to overpower the Boilers and win the game.  

BLOGKEEPING NOTE:  Are you bundled?  I want to welcome to the OC Domer blog our new sponsor, Charter Communications, who encourages you to save more on TV, internet, and phone by bundling with Charter.  Learn more by clicking on "Charter Cable Packages." 

It wasn't as close as the score indicated

The Fighting Irish extended to ten their streak of consecutive losses to ranked opponents, falling to the Pittsburgh Panthers 27-22 despite a furious 4th quarter rally that was prematurely terminated by a bogus instant replay reversal which turned an incomplete Clausen pass under pressure into a game-deciding lost fumble. We'll never know if the Irish would have overcome the 4th-and-16 they faced after the incomplete pass, but it certainly would have been nice to have had the final outcome of the game decided by the players on the field rather than in the replay booth by some anonymous officials. Did anybody happen to hear what conference those officials were from?

The loss drops Notre Dame to 6-4 on the season, and means the best regular season finish the Irish can hope for is 8-4, which would require wins over Connecticut (probable) and a Stanford team that beat Oregon last week and humiliated the Southern California Trojans today (not so probable).

Prior to the season I wrote, after a lengthy analysis of the team's prospects:

For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

So, even if the Irish win their final two games, they clearly have under-achieved against what I considered to be very reasonable expectations for 2009.

I admit I have a headache tonight. Once again the team fought hard and mounted a comeback and took a game into the final minutes. That has been their style this year. In ten games played, two have been very comfortable wins (Nevada and Washington State). The remaining eight games have all come down to the final minutes or even the final seconds. Four of those games have gone Notre Dame's way, and four have gone the other way. This team is seriously a handful of plays from being 10-0, and another handful of plays from being 2-8. It is maddening.

If the Irish had managed to score on the final drive tonight and win the game it would have been very exciting and it would have been an important win over a ranked opponent (finally!). But it would have been a win achieved despite the fact that ND was out-played in just about every phase of the game.

Notre Dame had 66 net rushing yards to Pitt's 193. The Irish averaged 2.6 yards per rush to Pitt's 6.0 yards.

While ND had more net passing yards (283 to 236), the Irish only averaged 6.7 yards per attempt and 10.5 yards per completion. The Panthers averaged 8.7 yards per attempt and 15.7 yards per completion.

Pitt averaged 7.3 yards per offensive play versus 5.2 yards per play for ND.

The Irish were penalized 5 times for 53 yards, Pitt was penalized ONCE for just 5 yards.

Notre Dame threw one interception and lost one fumble. Pitt had zero turnovers.

Notre Dame had one PAT attempt blocked, and failed on a later 2-pt conversion attempt. Pitt was 3-for-3 on PATs.

On the bright side, Notre Dame had one touchback on a kick-off, and finally had a punt return for a touchdown. It's about damn time.

The loss will only intensify swirling speculation about Coach Weis' future. I wrote at length after the Navy loss about my feelings on the matter. Yet another disappointing loss certainly doesn't change my mind that Notre Dame should give someone else a chance to lead this team. I would expect Jack Swarbrick is busily (but quietly) putting out feelers and gauging the interest level of potential replacements. Jack may like Charlie on a personal level, but he is running out of options. Weis was not his hire, but if he doesn't act to replace Coach Weis he is going to find that his tenure as Athletic Director will be bound up with a football coach hired by Kevin White. I rather expect Jack would be more comfortable sinking or swimming with a coach of his choosing rather than a coach of Kevin White's choosing.

IBG: Get Your Headlines Here!

The Subway Domer is hosting this week's Irish Blogger Gathering. Head over there to read all the IBG contributors' responses once you're done here.

Subway is being cute this week (I can't stand cute) and, since the Irish have been very much in the headlines since last Saturday's scuttling at the hands of Navy, he's asking us to come up with a headline for each of our IBG answers. I feel like I used to in school when the English teacher asked us to make a movie poster showing the most symbolic part of the lame book we just read. Groan. Here we go. No, it'll be good. Really!

1. After weeks and weeks of living on the edge, Notre Dame finally fell off of that edge into a pile of shit. Please describe your mental state since the Navy game. Are you hopeless or hopeful? Why?

Help Wanted: Head Football Coach

This isn't as hard as I thought. I think my Sunday post, "You Are What Your Record Says You Are, Charlie" fairly clearly conveys my state of mind right now.

I listen to Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio each morning on my drive to work. Colin has been having fun the past few days making fun of Notre Dame fans for unrealistically thinking that Notre Dame should be considered as on the same level as Florida, 'Bama, Texas, or USC. But Colin is knocking down a straw man. Most of us don't think Notre Dame should be a Top 5 team year in and year out. We do, however, think the Irish should be a Top 20 team year in and year out. We don't expect to beat 'Bama and Texas and USC consistently. We do expect to beat Navy and other unranked teams nearly all the time, and to beat other Top 20 teams our fair share of the time. Under Charlie we are beating unranked teams only about 70% of the time, and we haven't beat a ranked team in the last 9 tries.

Hopeless or Hopeful? Hopeful the next coach can win more games and still do it the Notre Dame way.

2. Given the sorry state of the Fighting Irish defense, are they capable of slowing down Pitt's offense, or will Stull, Baldwin, and Lewis have career days?

Clausen, Irish Out-Duel Stull

I am actually a little optimistic about the ability of the defense to slow Pitt down. Pittsburgh is a good team, but their record has been compiled against the 70th-toughest schedule in the Division I. (Notre Dame's schedule is ranked #26 by Sagarin). They run a pretty conventional offense, nothing exotic. Two of Notre Dame's losses have come against un-conventional offenses. Michigan's dramatic improvement running the spread offense surprised us, and we didn't handle the triple option well. There is no excuse in either case, but the fact is that the unusual offenses have really hurt us. We have done better against more traditional offensive schemes, and have done okay (not great, but okay) against Pittsburgh's scheme in the past. No career days for Stull & Co. But they'll still get theirs, and the Irish will just need to out-gun them.

3. Notre Dame has had serious Red-Zone issues this year. They can't score... why is that? What needs to be corrected and how can they do this?

Ragone, Riddick Lead Irish Rally

The Red Zone issues were glaringly obvious last week, and they cost the Irish the game. On one level, you can say that Notre Dame ran into some bad luck with Clausen's fumble and the ricochet interception off Michael Floyd's back. (As an aside, was I the only one impressed with Clausen's accuracy on that play? He fired the ball out there and hit Floyd square in the middle of his "3"). On the other hand, there is a premium on execution in the Red Zone. You have to convert those chances into points to win games, and Notre Dame has not been consistent converting scoring chances.

I think the problem is that Coach Weis tends to radically change his approach once the offense nears the end zone. The offense will be humming along, moving the ball with alacrity down the field using one version of the game plan, then when they get down to scoring position they throw out the game plan that just chewed up 70 yards in eight plays and try something completely different. Just when the offense is in a rhythm and has the defense back on its heels, Charlie says "Hey, let's try the Wildcat!" Or maybe, "Let's get Robert Hughes some reps on slow-developing dive plays, because Theo's been eating them up on the quick-hitters to the outside."

In the open field the passing game is quick, crisp, and aggressive. Jimmy is throwing the ball with real zip to precise spots and the defense has no answer. Then, at the 5-yard line we shift gears to low-percentage, slow developing, delicate-touch fade patterns to the deep corner of the end zone. Does Charlie not realize that every cornerback in the country is expecting the jump-ball fade to Floyd or Rudolph once we get close?

The answer in the Red Zone is to dance with who brung ya. Stay spread, keep Theo Riddick in the game, and run the same plays that have baffled the defense all day. Run Theo off the edge on the stretch play. Or fake the handoff to Theo and hit the tight end on a slant, hook, or crossing pattern. Hit Michael Floyd or Golden Tate on quick outs or maybe (open your mind here) a fade-stop.

Back to my headline, keep Theo Riddick in the game in the Red Zone, and use him as the primary runner and tight end Mike Ragone (Kyle Rudolph is injured) as the primary receiver in the middle of the end zone, with Jimmy firing the ball to him on a rope, rather than floating balls to the corner.


4. Charlie Weis and Dave Wannstache started coaching their alma maters at the same time. They have both coached on crutches. They both seem to recruit fairly well. They are both considered disappointing in their respective 5 year campaigns. After reviewing their total body of work, who would you rather have coaching ND in 2010? Explain.

Weis Whips Wanny

Look, I like Charlie. I want him to flip the switch and start winning key games and eventually get his own statue outside the stadium. He's a Notre Dame guy. Can someone remind me how many Super Bowl rings Wanny has? Give me Charlie over the 'stache any day.


5. Prediction time. How does this game play out. Please include a score, an offensive MVP, a defensive MVP, and a sleeper.

Weis Not Done Fighting, Irish Out-Punch Panthers

It's the intangibles that make college football great. These two teams are very evenly matched on paper. Notre Dame travels to Pittsburgh after a humbling and dispiriting loss at home, with their head coach under intense fire from all sides. This team could arrive in Pittsburgh resigned to the fact that they aren't going to a BCS Bowl game, that their coach is going to get fired, that Jimmy is going to the NFL, and that they are still a long way from the promised land. That team could get crushed by Pitt. Or the team could show up in Pittsburgh truly pissed off, determined to redeem themselves and their coaches, and play the game of their lives. Say what you like about the team this year, but there has been no quit in them. I expect them to roll into the 'Burgh with a serious chip on their shoulders and looking for someone to hurt.

The Panthers, in the mean time, have been feasting on baby seals and have moved up to #8 in the AP Poll and #12 in the BCS Standings. They beat Navy 27-14 back in September, and are coming off an easy win over Syracuse. On one level I have no doubt that the Panthers see the Notre Dame game as very important and understand they should be really fired up to play the Irish. But I wonder if, unconsciously, the Panthers might make the mistake of taking this game too lightly. They beat us at our place a year ago. They are highly ranked, while ND is unranked after losing to Navy. Ahead of Pittsburgh on the schedule are West Virginia and Cincinnati. Two tough games standing between them and an 11-1 season. The Panthers could come in a little too full of themselves.

It's a shoot-out. Bet the "over". Notre Dame beats a ranked opponent for the first time since 2006, 45-30. Jimmy Clausen is the offensive MVP, with another 400-yard game that puts him right back into the thick of the Heisman race. Kyle McCarthy is defensive MVP, although in reality there probably shouldn't be a defensive MVP. Mike Ragone is the sleeper with a big game in relief of Kyle Rudolph.

Notre Dame Shaking Down the Thunder in 2009

Put up or shut up. That seems to be the consensus among the Irish faithful and the college football cognoscenti regarding Notre Dame's 2009 football season. The Irish return almost the entire offense from a year ago, led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a junior heading into his third year as a starting QB who completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards last year with a 25/17 TD/INT ratio. Clausen will be playing behind an offensive line that has already amassed 100 career starts between them, which puts them among the most experienced offensive lines in the country. That line experience should translate into time to throw the ball for Clausen, and a new offensive line coach, Frank Verducci, will hopefully mean improved O-line play in the running game.

If Clausen does have time to throw, and he should, that means trouble for opposing secondaries. With Golden Tate and 2008 OC Domer Player of the Year Michael Floyd at wide receiver and Kyle Rudolph at tight end, Notre Dame has among the best receiving corps in the nation. All three players can stretch the field (they average 18.6, 15.0, and 11.7 yards per catch, respectively); none can be effectively covered by a single defender. And you can't double-cover all of them. If these three stay healthy, Clausen and the Irish offense should put up Brady Quinn-esque numbers in 2009. Tate, Floyd and Rudolph are complemented most notably by junior Duval Kamara (who has terrific size but needs to have a bounce-back year) and freshman Shaquelle Evans who has looked impressive in camp and is really pushing for early playing time.

The ability to stretch the field with the passing game should really benefit the Irish running game, led by 2008 leading rusher Armando Allen (134 carries for 585 yards; 50 receptions for 355 yds), who has been announced as the clear starter by Coach Weis. Allen will be accompanied in the backfield by James Aldridge (91 carries for 357 yds in '08), now the starter at fullback. Robert Hughes (112 carries for 382 yds in '08) will be first to spell Allen, but sophomore Jonas Gray and exciting freshman Cierre Wood will both see carries in 2009. The expectations with the running game are that the vertical threat of the passing game prevent defenses from stacking 8 defenders at the line of scrimmage, thus giving the running backs some room to work. Key will be whether the new offensive line coach can solve the short-yardage woes that have plagued Charlie Weis' offense since he arrived in South Bend. If these experienced backs, running behind an experienced group of linemen, can finally be counted on to reliably move the sticks in short yardage situations, thus sustaining drives and keeping our defense fresh, Notre Dame fans should be treated to a very enjoyable year.

In the off-season Charlie Weis shuffled the duties of his coaching staff a bit (he now has an associate head coach and two assistant head coaches), but the most significant result is that Jon Tenuta is now the defensive coordinator. Most expect that this will therefore be an aggressive, attacking defense that attempts to dictate the tempo of the game to opposing offenses and keep opponents back on their heels. In some respects the approach can be high risk - high reward, as the frequent blitzes Tenuta employs leaves defensive backs working in single coverage. Fortunately, the Irish secondary looks to be top-notch this year and should be more than capable of handling the assignment. The loss of safety David Bruton to the Denver Broncos will certainly be felt, but safeties Kyle McCarthy (110 tackles in 2008, most ever by an Irish defensive back) and Harrison Smith (57 tackles in '08 was 4th on the team) should fill in ably. Notre Dame is deep at the corners, led by Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton. If teams are going to move the ball on Notre Dame, it will not be through the air.

As in previous seasons, the concern with the Irish defense is up front. Once again, D-line is considered to be talented and scrappy, but probably a bit undersized. Nose Tackle Ian Williams weighs in just north of 300 lbs, but the other projected starting defensive tackle, the very disruptive Ethan Johnson, weighs just 275 lbs. The defensive ends, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal weigh in at 265 and 246 lbs. These players are all well suited to Jon Tenuta's aggressive defensive system, but it remains to be seen how stout they can be against teams that are content to run the ball straight at you. The defensive front seven have to show the ability to take on blockers heads-up and stuff a hole. The past two seasons have seen too many defenders trying to run around blocks, leaving big seams for opposing ball carriers to run through until a defensive back came up to make a tackle.

The top tackler among defensive linemen last season was the departed Pat Kuntz, whose 42 was 6th best on the team. The next D-lineman in tackles was nose tackle Ian Williams with 40 (8th best in '08). Digest that for a minute. Notre Dame's top five tacklers in 2008 did not include a defensive lineman. You might argue that it's the scheme, that the D-line is supposed to occupy blockers and let the linebackers run to the ball. I'd buy that, if the stats backed it up. But the top two tacklers for ND last season weren't linebackers. They were safeties. And it wasn't close. Kyle McCarthy led all Irish defenders with 110, David Bruton was 2nd with 97. Linebacker Maurice Crum was a distant third with just 65 tackles. Notre Dame's front seven needs to be much more effective this year stopping the run, so that the defensive backfield can worry less about run support and concentrate instead on defending the pass.

While the loss of Maurice Crum's leadership in the middle of the defense will be felt, the fact is that the guys replacing Crum are much more talented. Super-recruit Manti Te'o will get on the field early, likely playing alongside junior Brian Smith and sophomore Darius Fleming, although the competition for starting linebacker jobs is intense this season, and that's a good thing. Whoever plays, the linebackers have to step up this year in both stopping the run without DB help and in getting home and sacking opposing quarterbacks on Coach Tentuta's blitzes.

On special teams, freshman Nick Tausch came into camp and took control of the kicker position, winning both the kick-off job and the place-kicking job. I am very anxious to see the young man kick. Lack of a consistent place-kicker has plagued the Irish for two seasons, and the inability to kick the ball into the end zone for touchbacks has been frustrating. If Nick Tausch can bring Notre Dame's not-so-special teams up from "awful" to "average" it will be a big boost to Irish fortunes in 2009. Eric Maust remains the ND punter.

So how do I see this team shaping up in 2009? As I wrote in an earlier post:

With respect to Notre Dame football, there just isn't much uncertainty this year, other than the ultimate uncertainty of how many wins the Irish will put in the books. [...] For 2009, there just aren't many unknowns. The players in 2009 are almost without exception the same guys we watched lose at home to Syracuse and then win impressively in Hawaii. Same quarterback, same running backs, same linemen, same receivers. Same defensive players, with the exception of an opening at linebacker and an opening at safety.

So, given that we're going to see what is essentially the same group of players, each of them a year older, a year more mature (physically and emotionally), a year more experienced, what can we realistically expect?

The 2008 Fighting Irish posted a 6-win, 6-loss regular season and had a dominating performance in winning the Hawaii Bowl 49-21. That's a 7-6 overall record. Digging just a little deeper, however, one quickly learns that the 2008 squad, from a talent perspective, should have posted a 9-3 regular season record. The losses to Michigan State (argh), Boston College and USC were never really in doubt. But ND blew double digit leads against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. A team with a little more experience, and a little more maturity, doesn't lose those games in 2008. So while they fully earned their 6-6 mark, from a talent and ability standpoint the Irish were arguably playing at the level of a 9-3 squad.

Is it unreasonable to expect the 2009 Fighting Irish, with the added maturity and experience, to play at least at that 9-3 level this season? I do not think that's unreasonable at all. And that's before you even begin to look at the 2009 schedule.

Let's go ahead and look at that schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).


Sept. 5: Nevada. The danger in this game is that the Irish fail to take this good team from the wacky WAC seriously enough while looking ahead to the Michigan game. In 2008 the Wolf Pack's offense was potent and balanced, led by QB Colin Kaepernick who is a true dual threat with 1,100 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing last season. 2009 will be his third season as a starting QB. The Irish defense's speed and athleticism should be able to slow Kaepernick enough to allow Jimmy Clausen and the ND offense to win the game by scoring at will against a poor Nevada defense whose main weakness is in the secondary. Key to the game will be the Irish defense getting off the field on 3rd Down and the Notre Dame offense controlling the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. (Isn't that always the key?). The point is, Nevada is dangerous and if you don't take care of business they are good enough to ruin your entire season in Week 1. I will be watching this game closely to see if the 2009 Irish dominate a less talented team like they should, rather than playing down to the level of the opponent and keeping the game "interesting" far longer than they should (see: 2008 season opener against San Diego State). Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%

Sept. 12: @Michigan. It was a party in Notre Dame Stadium as the Fighting Irish blew out the Wolverines in what must have been a cathartic 35-17 victory following the travesty that was 2007. While Notre Dame looked impressive that day, they were helped by 6 UM turnovers and actually had some problems slowing down the Wolverine running game in the person of Sam McGuffie. I expect UM to cut down on the turnovers and put up a better fight in the Big House, but they are still in a serious re-building mode and are expected to start a freshman at quarterback. Add to their already substantial problems the exploding controversy about the Wolverines and Dick Rod being a bunch of cheaters and I expect UM to be distracted and confused enough for the Irish to get a nice road win in a physical game. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Sept. 19: Sparty. I hate those guys. Coach Weis is 1-3 against Michigan State which, to coin a phrase, is not good enough. In 2007 MSU beat ND by 17 pts. In 2008 the margin was 16 pts. This is not progress. Notre Dame's problems against Sparty have been in the trenches. MSU has been more physical than the Irish on both sides of the ball and that has told the tale. ND has been unable to run the ball with any success, and has had difficulty contending with the Spartan power rushing attack. This game will be an important test against a very good team. Will the experienced Irish O-line finally be able to assert itself in the running game? Will the Irish front seven on defense be able to man up and compete with MSU's power game? MSU will be a very good team and probably the second toughest game on the Irish schedule. But Sparty will badly miss the leadership of talented QB Brian Hoyer and the production of RB Javon Ringer. Irish win a battle at home. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%

Sept. 26: @Purdue. Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 last season. Purdue's top three rushers, top two passers, and top two receivers from that team are gone, to be replaced by untested players led a by a first year head coach. The defense does return a lot of experience, and talent, but Purdue is going to have a tough year. The Irish defense should force some turnovers and lead Notre Dame to a convincing win in West Lafayette. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%






Oct. 3: Washington. The once proud Huskies were winless in 2008 and own a 14-game losing streak. But they got rid of Coach Tyrone Willingham and brought in former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to be the new head coach. No doubt they will eventually get better, but the Irish crushed UW last year 33-7 in Seattle, and one would have to expect a similar result when the Huskies visit Notre Dame Stadium in '09. Sarkisian will have the team playing with more heart and pride, no doubt, but even with touted QB Jake Locker healthy again, Notre Dame fans know all too well how hard it can be to overcome a Ty Willingham-created talent deficiency. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%

Oct. 10: -Bye-. Great spot for the bye week. Five games played and USC next up on the schedule. Gives the coaches and players a chance to re-group, get healthy, and take some time to prepare for the Trojans.

Oct. 17: USC. Toughest game on the schedule, again. It's great to get USC in Notre Dame Stadium. Unfortunately the Trojans are coming off a bye week as well. But they may well need it, having already played Ohio State and Cal, both on the road. A third tough road trip this early in the season could have the boys of Troy feeling a little ragged. Of course, USC is loaded, particularly at running back and receiver. But they just announced that true freshman Matt Barkley will be the starter at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. Recalling last year's painful game in the Coliseum, the Notre Dame defense actually played pretty respectably against the Mark Sanchez led Trojan offense. But the complete inability of the Irish to move the ball meant the defense was on the field all night, usually with their backs against the wall. Given the loss of so many 2008 Trojan defensive players, the Irish offense should fare better in 2009 (It really hurt that Michael Floyd was injured and unable to play against USC in '08). Likewise, the Irish defense should have more success this year playing against a true freshman at QB. I still can't predict an Irish victory, given that the gap between the two programs is too wide to close in the space of one season. Two things can really help Irish chances in this game. First, the students MUST go to the game. October 17 falls on the first weekend of Fall break, and it would be tough to win the game if the students go home for break and leave empty seats in the stadium. The team will be pumped up if everyone stays for the game and gets LOUD. Second, pray for snow. Or at least a really miserable cold, rainy day. Those Southern California kids HATE the cold. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 40% (i.e., 40% chance of Irish win)

Oct. 24: Boston College. My irritation at losing to Boston College (6 straight) is probably second only to my irritation at losing to Sparty. BC has a new head coach, although he's been in the program for a while, in Frank Spaziani. They do return some experience for '09 (13 or 14 starters depending upon who you read), but will be breaking in a new quarterback and installing a new offesnive system. The Irish lost to the eagles at BC in '08 by a 17-0 score, in a lackluster game featuring awful playing conditions and reportedly an Irish QB battling the flu. Despite the score, ND had more yards and more first downs than BC, but Jimmy Clausen threw four interceptions that killed off any chance te Irish had of scoring. Bring this game home to the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium (and hopefully in front of the students on Fall break who stayed on campus or came back early to cheer on the team), eliminate the INTs, and sprinkle in a little payback, and Notre Dame should FINALLY get over the hump against the Eagles. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Oct. 31: Washington State (@ San Antonio). That's right, San Antonio. wtf? Presumably, a lot of die-hard Notre Dame fans living in or near Texas will pack the Alamo Dome (or wherever the game is being played), giving the Irish a nice "home field" avantage for this neutral site game. I am also presuming that Charlie Weis will be using this game as a showcase of the program for Texas-based high school recruits and potential recruits. Otherwise this game makes no sense to me. All that said, the Cougars beat Portland State and Washington last season (in OT, at home). They lost every other game, most of them by very ugly lopsided scores. They'll be better this year (they would have to be, wouldn't they?), but they won't give the Irish much trouble. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%


Nov. 7: Navy. The Middies had a very nice 8-5 season in '08 under first year coach Ken Nimuntuukomuntotrklo, and gave the Irish a scare last season in a 27-21 ND win. But Navy has to replace all their top offensive weapons from '08 (rushing, passing receiving). They will play valiantly but lose to ND @ ND. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%


Nov. 14: @Pittsburgh. The third toughest game on the schedule, Notre Dame lost at home to the Panthers last season in quadruple overtime, 33-36, blowing a game they led 17-3 at halftime. This year the game is in Pittsburgh. The Panthers return nine offensive starters (but not LeSean McCoy), and four defensive starters (but not defensive leader Scott McKillop). It should be a real tester for the Irish on the road, but hopefully the desire to atone for last season's embarrassing collapse will be the difference. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%

Nov. 21: Connecticut. The Huskies lose their top rusher (Donald Brown, 2083 yards in '08) and starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen 48.8 pct., 869 yds passing) off a team that went 8-5 with a Bowl win last season. Starting at quarterback for U-Conn in '09 is a familar face - former Notre Dame QB Zach Frazer, who was 46 of 83 (55.4%) for 536 yds, 2 TDs and 6 INTs for the Huskies in '08. You may recall that Zach was the first big recruit to commit to Coach Weis after he took over at Notre Dame. Upon his transfer out of the program I wrote:

I can only wish Zach all the best. When they write the book on the Charlie Weis era, Zach Frazer should have a small chapter in it all to himself, as he was a pivotal character in the Weis story. Zach was the first big recruit landed by Coach Weis. Zach was the answer to the question: Will this former NFL assistant coach be able to bring premiere talent into the Notre Dame program when competing against experienced college head coaches in the recruiting wars? Zach Frazer was a high school junior with a big arm, big numbers, and big hype. He was rated four stars at both Rivals.com and Scout.com. His verbal commitment sent shock waves throughout the Notre Dame community and throughout college football. It served notice that Coach Weis was a serious, energetic, and aggressive recruiter. No longer would Notre Dame wait, and wait, and wait before finally tendering offers to 4- and 5-star athletes. From now on, we were going to get into the hunt early and force other programs to play catch up. With one verbal commitment from Zach Frazer, Coach Weis (and Zach) changed the perception of Notre Dame's talent level. Zach took the Irish from being a program of mostly 3-star talent with some 4-star athletes sprinkled in, to being a program with 4-star talent sprinkling in some 5-star players. After his verbal commitment, Zach continued to help build the program by actively recruiting other top talent to come to Notre Dame. [...] Prior to the arrival of Charlie Weis, Notre Dame was losing 1- 2- and 3-star quarterbacks to transfer when they learned they either weren't going to be the starter (LoVecchio) or weren't going to be the primary back-up QB (Wolke, Olsen). Notre Dame now expects to lose a 4-star quarterback who can't crack the top 3 positions on the depth chart. That is a dramatic change, and we ironically owe that change, at least in part, to Zach Frazer.

Frazer's 2 TD / 6 INT ratio last season is worth noting, since interceptions were a problem for him at Notre Dame as well. In the 2007 Blue & Gold game Zach was 0 for 4 with an INT, which set the table for his departure from South Bend. I'm guessing Coach Weis will be able to find some Zach Frazer videotape for Coach Tenuta to digest in preparation for the U-Conn game. U-Conn comes to Notre Dame after a bye week and they will be looking to get a BIG win for their rising program. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Nov. 28: @Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh has brought some toughness (one might say dirty play) to the Farm, and Stanford is no gimme for anyone. Notre Dame beat the Cardinal 28-21 in '08 in Notre Dame Stadium, so a road game against a team that returns 17 starters from last season, including all the key playmakers, is no picnic. Still, it is Stanford, who will be hosting the Irish the week after hosting the Cal Bears in the annual "Big Game." There's a significant chance that Stanford could have a letdown when Notre Dame shows up. This game reminds me of the 2005 game between these two teams. Brady Quinn's Notre Dame squad was highly ranked and traveling to Palo Alto in need of a win to secure a berth in a BCS Bowl game. The game was a real battle, with the Irish coming out on top 38-31 and on their way to the Fiesta Bowl to face Ohio State. The '09 ND v. Stanford game could have similar implications. If Notre Dame has the kind of season they are capable of having, a win against the Cardinal could punch their ticket to a BCS Bowl game. In that case, I would expect ND to be very motivated, and to be playing very well if they are in that position. Stanford would be pesky but ultimately no match for Notre Dame. If, however, Notre Dame does not live up to expectations and needs a win against Stanford to earn a trip to a lesser bow game, and if Stanford could improve their bowl outlook with a big win, this game could be close again. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Conclusion: You've already heard all about the predictions of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook, who each have Notre Dame playing in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, so I'm not sure what else I can add. I am as optimistic as any Notre Dame fan, but even I don't predict an appearance in the Championship game. To get there would require a 12-0 season, which of course means beating USC, which I personally think is only about a 40% possibility. I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.

Longest, Crappiest Week Ever

I don't know about you - but I have had an awful week. Yes, the election results were annoying. Hey Barack, if you could get that plan for world peace and an economic turnaround on my desk by the end of next week, that'd be great. Thanks. But what has really made me miserable these past seven days was the Notre Dame loss to Pitt last Saturday. Arrrrggghhhh! For me, that loss was the worst of the Charlie Weis era.

It was worse than losing to a quality USC in 2005 after an epic struggle. It was worse than getting pasted 38-0 by USC or Michigan. It's worse than losing to Navy. It was certainly worse than the two bowl losses to superior opponents.

Last Saturday hurt so much because the team lost a game, at home, that they needed to win, that they should have won, that they pretty much had in the bag, and that they just simply gave away. The Fighting Irish lost an important game to a lesser foe (yes, I do believe a one-dimensional Pittsburgh playing with a back-up QB is a lesser team than the Irish) simply because Pittsburgh wanted the game more than our guys did. It was more important to the Panthers to keep fighting and to come back and win one on the road than it was to our guys to come out in the third quarter and put the game away.

I have been a 100% supporter of coach Weis since the day he was hired, and I still believe he'll get the job done. I have excused bad losses to better teams as he rebuilds the program. I have excused close losses to mediocre opponents based upon our youth and inexperience. But last Saturday was the second time this season that the Fighting Irish had a game well in hand, were outplaying the opponent and had victory in sight, and then allowed the game to slip through their fingers. Coincidentally, both losses were triggered by coming out after half-time and getting whipped in the third quarter. What the heck is going on in the locker room at half-time?

Charlie, just in case nobody has explained it to you: At Notre Dame you are expected to win all the games you play against lesser opponents, and you are also expected to win your fair share of games against better teams. A typical schedule will have about 8 games on it that you "should" win and will have about 4 games that are "toss-ups." A "tossup" in Irish parlance is a game in which you are a decided underdog but which your fans expect you to win anyway. To get to 10 wins you need to win all the "gimmes" and half the tossups. So far, your teams have been losing far too many of the "should wins" and haven't won any of the "tossups," let alone winning any upsets.

Today, Notre Dame is in Boston to take on the BC Eagles. Odds makers have the Irish as a 3.5 pt underdog. That is an insult. Both teams are 5-3. Notre Dame has played a significantly tougher schedule than BC. The two teams have one common opponent - North Carolina. Notre Dame played at UNC and lost by 5 points. The Eagles played at Chapel Hill and got beat by 21 points. That point spread isn't based on the talent of the players on these two squads. That point spread is based on coaching and on heart. The odds makers look at the Fighting Irish and they see a team that still hasn't figured out how winners play football. They look at our coaches and see a group that hasn't yet figured out how to push the right buttons with this team. And who can blame them? Two of our three losses came in games where we had control of the contest at halftime, but managed to lose the game with a combination of lackluster play, poor execution, and bad play-calling.

How bad was it against Pitt? The Pitt game started coming off the rails in the third quarter, when the came roaring out of the tunnel with 14 point lead and managed to possess the ball in the 3rd quarter for 4:09, and had ZERO first downs on ZERO net rushing yards and 7 passing yards. The Irish were 0 for 3 on third down conversions and 0 for 1 converting 4th down. Meanwhile Pitt had one drive that went 8 plays and 71 yards for a TD and another than went 15 plays and 70 yards for a TD (that drive carried into the 4th quarter).

One of those teams made productive use of their time at the half, and one didn't.

The overtime periods were as woeful for the Irish offense as the 3rd quarter. In four OT periods, the Irish managed just 2 first downs, converting only 1 of 5 third downs.

• In OT1 the offense managed to get to 1st and Goal at the 10 yard line but couldn't score a TD.
• In OT2 the offense got to 1st and 10 at the 11, and couldn't score a TD.
• In OT3 the offense went backwards (-4 yards) and ended up kicking a field goal from the 29.
• In OT4 the offense gained 6 yards on 4 plays and had to settle for a FG attempt from the 19 on 4th and 4.

How's that for Red Zone offense?

To be fair, the defense was outstanding in overtime, playing much better than they had during the 3rd quarter.

The bottom line for this team is that they need to learn how to play HARD for 60 minutes. You can't take a play off, or a series off, or a quarter off and expect to win a game. Your opponent is not going to give up, or roll over just because you played a good first half. They want to beat your brains in and you have to return the sentiment. You have to play every down as though the guy across from you just groped your girlfriend at a party and then called her a dirty name when she rejected him. Every down. The goal has to be to score 20, then 40 then 60 points until the coaches call off the dogs and empty the benches.

And that goes for the coaches too. Quit easing off the gas pedal and trying to nurse a 2 TD lead for 30 minutes. It's a prescription for disaster. Go with what has been working until you are up by 40 points, then worry about offensive balance or running out the clock.

I've been so fixated on the loss to Pitt that I haven't taken much of a look ahead to Boston College. Point spreads aside, the teams are pretty evenly matched on paper. The Irish are just a few spots above BC in the Sagarin rankings. Points scored and points allowed per game are pretty even (slight edge BC). Notre Dame's offense averages about 50 yards per game more than BC's offense. Notre Dame's defense allows about 60 yards per game more than BC's defense. Notre Dame's strengths are in the passing game, both offensively and defensively. The Eagles' strength is in the ground game, both offensively and defensively.

Thus, when the Irish have the ball, I expect to see a lot of the spread offense again. Not only has it been most effective for the team this season, it matches up better against the BC defense which is very good defending the run. The wild card here is that the weather in Chestnut Hill is expected to be cool and possibly rainy (50% chance of showers), which could make it harder to throw and catch the football.

When BC has the ball, expect a lot of what Pittsburgh did. The Eagles' passing game is very modest, with more INTs than TD passes. To win this game, Boston College will need to run the ball effectively and often. If they get behind and have to throw the ball to play catch-up, it should work into Notre Dame's hands.

The game is being played on an artificial surface, which I think gives a big advantage to Notre Dame. Hard enough covering Golden Tate and Michael Floyd on a slow grass surface. Put those two and Armando Allen on turf and I think the Irish offense will be dynamic. Plus, playing on turf lessens the impact of the potentially wet weather (no mud).

The Irish actually made a game of it against BC last season and might have had a chance to win it but for some bad officiating. Since that game Notre Dame has gotten much better, and BC lost their first round draft pick QB to the NFL and are not as good as they were during their Cinderella run. But statistics and game plans aside, for me this game will boil down to whether the Notre Dame players are as disgusted and embarrassed by last week's loss as I am. If they come out looking to make the Eagles pay for all that frustration, if they are aggressive and angry, and determined and focused for 60 minutes they should beat BC handily.

Come on guys - show us some nasty!

Brandon Walker is a Stud

My belly still aches from Saturday's putrid performance against the Pitt Panthers, so I'm having a hard time digesting exactly what the Hell happened. Hopefully I'll have something insightful to write tomorrow about Notre Dame's failure to show up in the third quarter and their hapless inability to score a single touchdown in four overtime periods. Right now my angst seems to be focused on offensive play-calling and on the linebackers. Why is it that our safeties, Bruton and McCarthy, have to make so many tackles? On running plays?

But I did want to shout out to Brandon Walker, who played the game of his life and who deserves to be recognized for single-handedly keeping the Irish in a game through three overtime periods when the offense was completely inept. After struggling mightily at the beginning of the year and being on the verge of losing his job to a walk-on player straight off the interhall football fields, Brandon was 3 of 3 in PATs and hit his first 4 field goal attempts on the day, including one in each of the first three overtime periods to extend the game three times. On the day Walker hit 7 of 8 tries on PATs and FGs and I sure hope that NOBODY is giving him grief for the one he missed. The last person who needs to blame himself for Saturday's result is BW. Quarterbacks missed open receivers, defenders missed tackles, linemen missed blocks. They all need to share the blame. But BW should be singled out for praise.

He gets my game ball.