Defense Keying Irish Rebound

I just wanted to interject with some quick thoughts to get the blog caught up on the season so far.  Things have been busy at OC Domer HQ, as the OC Son has started his senior year of high school and is smack in the middle of the college applications process with all the essays to write, letters of recommendation to procure, meetings with clueless guidance counselors to attend, etc...  In fact we will be taking a road trip to look at a few more schools VERY soon, so I won't be able to blog much in the next several days either.

In my last post I dissected the brutal loss at Michigan, and hammered the defense pretty well for its 4th quarter collapse.  I am very happy to report that the "D" has taken that criticism to heart and deserves the bulk of the credit for the Irish wins over Sparty and Pitt.  These past two games played out much more like my pre-season vision for this team:

As this season unfolds, I expect the signature unit of the team to be the aggressive, stifling defense, rather than the efficient, potent offense.  There will be weeks when the offense sputters a bit, but the defense will be consistently good and will key Irish success in 2011. 

The impressive 31-13 defeat of the Spartans was NOT the result of brilliant offense, as the 31 points would lead one to believe.  It was sparked by a defense that completely took Michigan State out of their preferred game:  rushing the football.  MSU was held to just 29 net rushing yards, for an average of 1.3 yards per rush.  Even though MSU quarterback Kirk Cousins put up some decent numbers throwing the ball, he was harassed enough by an aggressive Irish defense to blunt his effectiveness.  Cousins was sacked twice and intercepted once, and Sparty scored just one touchdown (and one field goal) in five Red Zone possessions.  That's terrific defense.  Add in a Robert Blanton 82-yard interception return, an 89-yard kick-off return for a touchdown by George Atkinson III (where has GA3 been all my life?), and some efficient offense, and you have the recipe for a win.

Kudos to Robert Blanton for a most impressive game:  In addition to the INT and return, #12 had an 11-yard sack, two other tackles for loss, six total tackles, and three pass break-ups.  Dominant.

Perhaps we should add "total offense" to the list of irrelevant statistics in Coach Kelly's system. 

The Irish outgained USF 508-254, and lost.  They outgained Michigan 513-452, and lost.

Notre Dame was out-gained by Sparty 358-275, and whipped 'em. 

And ND outgained Pitt 398-268 and barely escaped with a win. 

I Tweeted after the Pitt game:  "Better to win ugly than lose ugly. But make no mistake - it was ugly."  Poring over the stat sheet, I don't see anything to change my initial impression.  A sack/fumble by Rees that results in a Pitt 3-0 lead.  On First & 10 at the Panther 24, Rees throws  an  interception at the 4-yard line, squandering yet another scoring opportunity.  Mrs. Domer wonders aloud "What must Dayne Crist be thinking?"  He was benched for throwing a single interception against USF, and Tommy has thrown six interceptions and lost three fumbles since then.

I was very worried by the success Pitt had in confusing Tommy by disguising the coverages until just before the snap, and I was even more worried by how long it took our coaching staff to make the necessary adjustments.  The Irish were very lucky that Rees didn't throw more interceptions, as he threw several balls right at Panther defenders that were dropped.  I was very unhappy that Tommy (and Kelly) kept trying to force the ball to Michael Floyd.  As much attention as #3 was getting, surely Riddick and/or Jones were wide open.  How about a pump fake to Floyd to draw the safety and a lob down the field to TJ Jones?  That should loosen the defense up.  But instead we kept throwing those maddening horizontal passes into tight coverage.  It was a flashback to the worst tendencies of Charlie Weis' offense.  Throw it down the field!!!

Or run it.  Maybe with Jonas Gray - who took his second carry of the game 79 yards to the house and was promptly placed in the Federal witness protection program.  What was up with that?  Against Sparty, Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray split the running load 14 carries to 12.  Jonas goes off for 79 yards on one carry against Pitt - was I the only one shocked by his speed? - and gets only three carries against Wood's 23 carries.  Did Jonas pull a hammy?  

Fortunately, while the Irish "O" was stumbling around, the defense was putting in a very solid day, holding the Panthers to just 2.7 yards per rush and just 3.8 yards per offensive play.  Pitt QB Tino Sunseri was sacked FIVE times.  He threw for just 165 yards, with 18 yards as his longest completion.  Pitt only got into the Red Zone twice, resulting in one TD and one field goal.

Eventually of course Coach Kelly and T. Rees figured something out and Tommy put together the game-winning drive which clearly illustrated why he remains the starter despite his rookie mistakes.  Down 12-7 in the 4th quarter, Rees and the "O" take over at the Irish 15-yard line.  Tommy goes 8 for 8 passing on the 85-yard TD drive, and tacks on a 9th completion for the 2-pt conversion.  I think the word Coach Kelly likes to use is "moxie."  Nice job by Rees, and by Riddick and Eifert who keyed the drive with multiple receptions each.

State of the game:  The 15 points scored by Notre Dame was the fewest en route to a victory since Sept. 2, 2006, when the Irish slipped past Georgia Tech, 14-10.

Bottom line:  For the past two weeks the Irish defense has kept the opponent almost completely in check, while the offense has been just efficient/productive enough to get the win.  I think this is the formula for Irish success this year.

Up next is Purdue.  According to the Sagarin rankings at USAToday.com, the Boilermakers (2-1) are the 88th-best team in D-I football, having played the 181st-toughest schedule in the country.  Notre Dame slots in at #25 according to Sagarin, and have played the 5th-toughest schedule in the country so far.  Nobody ranked above the Irish by Sagarin has played as tough a schedule as Notre Dame.

It's a prime-time ESPN game under the lights at Ross-Ade though, so you know the crowd and the Boilers will be jacked up.  Back-to-back roadies for ND.  I expect Purdue to put up a good fight for about a half, then reality will set in and the Irish will win comfortably.  I do think Coach Kelly will put a premium on taking care of the ball, so we might see a lot of ball control runs on the offensive side that will keep scoring down a bit as we rely on the defense to overpower the Boilers and win the game.  

BLOGKEEPING NOTE:  Are you bundled?  I want to welcome to the OC Domer blog our new sponsor, Charter Communications, who encourages you to save more on TV, internet, and phone by bundling with Charter.  Learn more by clicking on "Charter Cable Packages." 

Purdue Review and Muck Fichigan (IBG Week 2)

Her Loyal Sons hosts the Irish Blogger Gathering for this week. I've been on the road for work this week, putting in some long hours in the office, and my blogging has predictably suffered. Who the heck schedules any sort of actual work between September 1st and the Super Bowl anyway? It's anti-American in my view.

So I want to put down a few very quick thoughts on the Irish win over Purdue in Coach Brian Kelly's first game.

The Irish beat Purdue by 11 points, making the wise guys in Las Vegas look pretty darn wise. I had predicted a 14-point win, so I was pretty close. But the game was actually closer than the final score indicated. The Irish only out-gained Purdue by 36 yards (358 to 322). Each team had 20 first downs.

The things I saw that I really liked included an obviously improved ground game (Armando Allen was solid at 5.2 ypc, Cierre Wood was eye-popping at 8.3 ypc), and a generally solid bend-but-don't break defense that also managed to generate some pressure on the quarterback. Purdue's longest play from scrimmage was a 23-yard scramble by the quarterback. The longest run by a non-QB was 14 yards. The longest Boilermaker pass play was just 16 yards. The Irish sacked Marve 4 times. The final really good thing was a very solid special teams performance that contributed greatly to the Irish win in the field position battle. Notre Dame's ASFP (Average Starting Field Position) was it's own 33-yard line. Purdue's ASFP was the 22-yard line.

Dayne Crist's stat line was "fine." 19 of 26 for 205 yards, 1 TD and zero INT. I don't know how things go in your house, but in my house if my wife (or my daughter) tells me that something is "fine" that's not synonymous with "good." "Fine" is synonymous with "not at all fine, and you better figure it out and fix it mister or there's gonna be trouble later." It wasn't all on Dayne, as his receivers dropped several catchable balls. But Dayne had quite a case of Brady Quinn-itis going on, allowing his adrenaline (or something) to severely affect his accuracy. I am going to chalk it up to first-start jitters and hope there are no second-start jitters. Thank goodness for Kyle Rudolph who appears in the early going to be Crist's security blanket. Michael Floyd and Theo Riddick need to step it up against Michigan, and of course catch and hold onto the ball. Between the drops and three fumbles, the ball was on the ground way too often in game one. And a safety? Really? I trust that's the last we'll see of that.

All in all, a "good " start for the Irish in the Kelly era. Better than "fine," but not great.

Now a quick, but pithy contribution to this week's Irish Blogger Gathering


1) You've now seen Notre Dame Football: The Kelly Edition, Volume 1, Episode 1. Was it everything you thought it would be? Were characters missing from this episode that you were expecting to see featured? Did it strike you as a carbon-copy of Kelly's Cincinnati teams, or is there something discernible between the 2 programs beyond the colors of the uniforms?

It was not everything I thought it would be, as discussed above. I never felt like the passing game was truly "clicking", although the success in the running game was a bit of a surprise. I hope we'll see more from Theo Riddick this week. If he doesn't step up, opponents will shut down M. Floyd and dare you to find another way to beat them.

Was it a carbon copy of Cincinnati? Seriously? What Notre Dame fan has ever watched a Bearcats game? I haven't seen more than 5 minutes of Cincinnati highlights that I pulled off You Tube once. I only watch football that matters.


2) Pick one positive play, offense or defense, by the Irish from last Saturday that you feel serves as a bit of metaphorical foreshadowing for the 2010 Irish. Extra points if you can stretch the metaphor to fit Kelly's entire tenure at Notre Dame.

Man, you piled the words metaphorical, foreshadowing and tenure into this one question. I guess we know who the English major is.

Okay, here's your play. Score still tied 0-0 in the first quarter. The Irish have had the ball twice, punted twice. Armando Allen is the featured back and has had runs of 4, -2, 1, and 4 yards and one reception for no gain. Purdue is in Irish territory and driving, when Darrin Walls intercepts a Marve pass at the Irish 16. The Irish offense takes the field, with Cierre Wood at running back in relief of Armando Allen. On the first play of the drive, Cierre Wood takes the hand-off and slashes his way up field for 16 yards and a first down. He follows up with a 15-yard rush on the next play, and also adds another 15-yard run later in the drive. To cap the drive Armando Allen scores a TD on a nifty 22-yard drive that had a lot more energy than any of his carries before Wood entered the game.

Metaphorically, Cierre Wood's first carry was an injection of youth, energy, and talent into the the Irish offense that picked the team up and propelled it to a touchdown and, ultimately, to victory. This foreshadows the injection of youth, energy and talent in the person of Coach Kelly and the players he will bring into the Irish program.


3) Pick another play, offense or defense, by the Irish from last Saturday again, but this time, make it a negative play. Tell us how that play serves as a bit of metaphorical foreshadowing for the 2010 Irish. And again, bonus points for stretching it over Kelly's tenure.

Is it too easy to pick Michael Floyd's great catch and run, followed by his horrible fumble that cost the team a touchdown and put the outcome of the game in doubt?

That was a foreshadowing of the growing pains that we will see for much of 2010. We'll see flashes of brilliance, signs of great potential, and then we'll see flashes of failure, signs that we aren't ready to be champions yet. We saw all that on just that single painful play.


4) You know us, we're stat geeks. Give us a stat that we should be watching this season that will A) Tell us something enlightening about the 2009 Irish and/or B) Tell us something enlightening about the average Top-5 teams at the end of the 2009 season.

I love Average Starting Field Position (ASFP). It tells you a lot about the hidden yardage within a game. A team that takes care of the ball and makes few mistakes will generally win the AFSP battle, and they will usually win the game. Against Purdue, as noted above, the Irish won the ASFP battle by 11 yards (the 33 versus the 22 yard line). That's a fairly sizable margin, and that's why the Irish won by 11 points even though we barely out-gained the Boilers and both teams had 20 first downs. Turnovers is arguably the most important stat in football, and special teams play is the most under-appreciated. ASFP usually reflects a team's performance in both these important areas.


5) Notre Dame is currently a 4 point favorite in the coming Michigan game. You get 3 points for being at home. The AP poll actually ranks Michigan higher than ND. ND is 1-4-1 in the last 6 games with Michigan in which the Irish were favored and 9 and 6 in the last 15 games in which Michigan was favored. Does any of this worry you? Why or why not?

Let's see. Last November, with Irish QB Jimmy Clausen passing for 329 yards, UConn beat Notre Dame 33-30 in double OT in Notre Dame Stadium. One week ago, Michigan whipped UConn 30-10. So therefore Notre Dame is favored to beat Michigan this week by 4 behind a young QB making his second start.

Makes. No. Sense.

I'd prefer to be the underdog against UM any time. But I doubt that Coach Kelly is going to let the boys be over confident going into this game.


6) Last week, Frank at UHND put the Gathering on the spot with our predictions for the season. After week 1, are there any of those predictions that you'd like to alter? Any upon which you'd double down?

Clearly I was giving the Big East and Pittsburgh too much credit. I had Pitt ending the season as the highest-ranked Irish opponent, and I had their running back Dion Lewis winning the Heisman. Pitt has serious QB problems, which allowed Utah to just pack the box against them and stuff Dion Lewis. Lewis is in for a long season.


7) Describe in no fewer than 30 words why you hate Michigan.

Over the summer there was much discussion about a major re-alignment of college football, and many felt that Notre Dame could not survive as a relevant, national football power if it remained independent. So-called experts have repeatedly opined that it was obvious that Notre Dame should join the Big Ten. What most commentators fail to understand is that Notre Dame is independent for one reason, and one reason only: The University of Michigan, under a succession of football coaches and athletic directors, led a conspiracy fueled by anti-Catholic bigotry and jealousy which aimed to keep Notre Dame out of the Western Conference (forerunner of the Big Ten) and to discredit Notre Dame as a University and as a football program. Notre Dame became an independent and America's college football team playing coast-to-coast because the other universities in its own back yard refused to respect them enough to put them on the schedule. Given the long and inglorious history of despicable treatment of Notre Dame by the members of the Big Ten generally and Michigan particularly, Notre Dame should not EVER consider joining the Big Ten until the members of that conference issue a formal, public apology to Our Lady's University.

More on the ugly history of Michigan's treatment of Notre Dame can be found here:

http://www.domerdomain.com/forum/showthread.php?t=30904

Purdue Pete Too Fearsome: Seeking A Kinder, Gentler Image

I saw this story linked over at thewizofodds.com and just had to post it here. It seems that the Boilermakers' unofficial mascot, Purdue Pete, just causes way too many young kids to cry with his freakishly over-sized head and intense stare, so he's getting a makeover to soften his image and make him more approachable.

I will NOT make any jokes about the Boilermakers being plenty soft already!

Anyway, I will keep my eye out for Pete's post-makeover look and report back as soon as there are any public sightings of the new Pete.

Irish Learning How to Win

So how excited can you really be about a last minute win over the Purdue Boilermakers? Normally, I'd be writing a post full of disappointment about how the team under-performed and played down to the level of the competition.

But today I am actually very impressed with the guts and determination of the Fighting Irish. Lacking #1 wideout Michael Floyd, #1 running back Armando Allen, and working around a very limited and gimpy Jimmy Clausen, this team took a collective step up and, as a group, made the plays they needed to make to win an important road game in the face of serious adversity.

The final winning drive led by Clausen and finished in the end zone by TE Kyle Rudolph was very dramatic and should be remembered for a long time. But Notre Dame wouldn't have been in a position to win the game without key contributions from a bunch of guys who, until Saturday night, were not household names:

• Jonas Gray had 60 total yards rushing and receiving.
• Robert Hughes ran like a raging bull, flattening would-be tacklers on his way to 68 rushing yards and a touchdown.
• Golden Tate was Superman, rushing, receiving, wild-catting, punt-returning his way to 128 total yards, including a 14-yard touchdown run. (Okay, Golden's is a household name, but I couldn't leave him off this list!)
  
• Freshman Theo Riddick had just one offensive carry, but it went for 24 yards. He also had 96 kick-return yards (averaging 24 yards per return) for 120 total yards on the night.
• Freshman Nick Tausch was 1-for-1 on field goals, perfect on PATs, and had his best game yet on kick-offs booming the ball down near the goal line (and beyond).
• Quarterback Dayne Crist, while not allowed to open up the whole playbook, was very effective leading the offense when Clausen needed a break. Crist was 5-for-10 passing for 45 yards, and had four rushes for a net 16 yards, including a very nice 16-yard gain on his first play of the game that seemed to knock Purdue back on their heels a bit.
• Robby Parris had a huge 16-yard catch for a key first down on the final scoring drive.
• Robert Blanton had eight total tackles on the night.
• Darius Fleming went OFF for four solo tackles, including three tackles-for-loss and one QB sack.
• Kapron Lewis-Moore had for solo tackles, including one TFL.
• Manti Te'o had a big QB sack to put the game on ice on Purdue's last possession.

And that's not to forget the usual outstanding play of guys like Rudolph, McCarthy, Smith, Smith, Smith, Smith, and Brown; or the terrific play of the offensive line.

In 2008 this same team found a way to lose three games that it had well in hand and should have won. In 2009 this team let the Michigan game get away from them on the road, but held on to beat MSU last week. On Saturday the Fighting Irish finally had the feel of a team that collectively refused to lose. Despite losing most of its marquee offensive talent, the team scraped and clawed its way to a 10-point halftime lead. Despite losing that lead when the offense stalled and the defense stumbled, they regrouped and rallied around their injured quarterback and gave it everything they had until they got the ball across the goal line to take the lead for good. How freaking inspiring was Robert Hughes' 2-yard run on 2nd-and-goal at the Purdue four yard line with less than a minute to go? On the stat sheet it doesn't look like much, but seeing the determination as he dragged Purdue tacklers toward the goal line and refused to go down made me feel like he was carrying the hopes of his whole team on his shoulders and there was no way he was going to let his teammates down.

In 2005 and 2006 one often felt like the team was waiting for Brady Quinn to win the game for them. In 2008 it seemed like the team went as Clausen went. If he was hot the team did well, if Jimmy was off, the team had no chance. In this game against Purdue I felt that the whole team from Jimmy to Bobby Burger to Kerry Neal to Mike Anello took personal ownership of the fate of the team and as a group they said "You can take Floyd, you can take Armando, you can take Clausen, and we're still not going to let you beat us."

It was Purdue, but a night game on the road in the Big Ten with a lot of adversity to overcome was as good a time as any to begin to learn how to win games. That personal yet collective ownership of the fate of the team and the will to win no matter what will pay dividends down the road.

My Dad sent me an e-mail after the game criticizing Charlie Weis' play calling on their last possession of the 3rd quarter. With Notre Dame driving and with a first down at the Purdue 34, Notre Dame had a Hughes run for no gain, an incomplete pass attempt, another Hughes run for no gain, and a 4th-down sack of Crist for a 7-yard loss. Dad thought a pooch punt to bury Purdue in their own end was the smart play, feeling that there was no reason to give Purdue the emotional lift of a big 4th-down stop along with good field position. I replied that I thought the 3rd-down play was the worst of the series, in that it showed no confidence in Crist to run the offense. Plus, if you're going to let him throw it on 4th down anyway, let Dayne have a shot at making a play on 3rd down rather than just plowing into the line on 3rd-and-10.

But I also told my Dad that I thought he was being too negative on Charlie. I feel like he coached his ass off on Saturday night. He was without his #1 receiver, #1 running back, and his starting QB for much of the night, playing on the road against a jacked-up opponent. He went deep into the playbook and found a package of plays that managed to generate enough offense to win the game with the players he had on the field, including a game-winning TD drive at the end of the game led by a one-footed QB.

Coach Weis gets a lot of deserved criticism when he mismanages a game situation and/or gets too cute with his play calls. We should all be willing, however, to give him credit when it is due, and I think he deserves a lot of credit for writing a game plan (actually two or three game plans) that gave his team chance to win a tough game, and for managing the dynamics of the game as it unfolded in such a way as to bring home a "W".

Little Things: Notre Dame won the turnover battle (2-1), had fewer penalties and penalty yards (6 for 41) than Purdue (13 for 103), and won the field position battle (ASFP for Notre Dame its own 34; ASFP for Purdue its own 28).

IBG: Life After Michael Floyd

Wow. It's been way too long since my last post, I'm embarrassed to say. Part of the problem was a business trip to Pittsburgh last week that threw me off my normal rhythm. But part of the problem has been a certain degree of befuddlement about the Irish that left me unsure of where I stand on this team. I wrote a quick post right after the loss to Michigan which pretty well captured my thoughts at that moment, and despite winning last week in a game that had very much the same feel as the Michigan game, my feelings haven't really changed much.

I feel like I owe you all a decent analysis of both the Michigan and Michigan State games, but I don't have the time to do so in a lot of detail. Here's the nutshell:

• The offense is playing well enough to win a lot of games. Passing game is strong, run game is acceptable.

• The defense is not playing well enough to win a lot of games. The vaunted Jon Tenuta "pressure" is rarely getting home, and the result has been unacceptably large yardage and scoring totals for two teams led by inexperienced quarterbacks. Michigan gained 430 yards (6.1 yards per play) and scored 38 points. Sparty gained 459 yards (7.1 yards per play) and scored 30 points.
  

• In each of the last two games four of the top five tacklers for the Irish were defensive backs. What's up with that?
  

• It's still the little things that kill you. Notre Dame had nine penalties for 75 yards against Michigan, and had ELEVEN penalties for 99 yards against Sparty.
  

• Special Teams play hasn't been special, although they were significantly better against Sparty than they were against Michigan. Against UM the Irish lost the field position battle by 8 yards (Irish ASFP of their own 29, Michigan at their own 37). Against MSU the Irish barely won the battle of ASFP (own 29 versus own 26). Funny how often winning the field position battle correlates to winning the game.
  

Bottom Line: If the Fighting Irish expect to meet any of their goals this season, the defense has to get a whole lot more stingy than it's been to date.

With Michigan and Michigan State finally out of the way, we can now turn our attention to the Purdue Boilermakers. This week's Irish Blogger Gathering is hosted by Frank V. at the UHND Blog. After you finish up here, head over there to read all the IBG posts for this week. This week's questions:

1. The obvious question for the week, how does Notre Dame deal with the loss of Michael Floyd? What wide receiver steps up? How, if at all, does the offense change?

Frank's right, as he usually is. This/these is/are the obvious question/questions. The answer has to be that the Irish handle the loss of Floyd in 2009 much better than they did in 2008. When Michael got hurt last season the Irish offense curled up into the fetal position and sucked it's thumb until he returned for the Hawaii Bowl. In his absence the Irish offense averaged 1.9 yards per play against USC, not even gaining a first down until the last play of the 3rd quarter. With Floyd watching from the sideline Notre Dame suffered a humiliating loss to Syracuse.

The primary problem the Irish have without Michael Floyd is that the offense goes from having two very dangerous deep threats to just one, Golden Tate. While ND has several quality receivers who can step into the mix, none of them have so far shown the ability to stretch the field vertically like Floyd and Tate can. It's an easy call for opposing defenses to double-cover Golden Tate and dare the other Irish receivers to beat them.

I expect to see more of Robby Parris and Duval Kamara, along with a heavy dose of tight end Kyle Rudolph. But the only other wide-out we have seen so far who has the ability to threaten the defense deep is freshman Shaquelle Evans. Physically he has the size and speed that reminds one of Floyd, although he hasn't yet shown the same play-making ability.

I hope that Coach Weis keeps the offense fundamentally the same as the first few weeks, stretching the field vertically with Tate and (probably) Evans. The difference will be that, in the absence of Floyd, Jimmy Clausen won't be able to just throw the ball up in the air and expect #3 to come down with it. He'll have to actually wait for a receiver to get open, and thus more throws will come over the middle of the field to Rudolph, Kamara, and Parris once Tate and Evans have lured the coverage deeper.

It would be a mistake to decide that this is Purdue, we should be able to handle them, so let's just work on our run game. That could well work for one game, but Coach Weis needs to let Clausen and the receivers run the entire offense so that they are ready to execute the full passing attack against Washington and USC without Floyd to lean on. This week will be a really good test of Jimmy Clausen's development. Can he work through his reads and deliver the ball to the open receiver without committing costly turnovers?

2. After seeing three games from Notre Dame in 2009 have your expectations increased, decreased, or remained the same?

At the conclusion of my season preview post I included the following thoughts on season expectations:

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations [...]. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

I think my feelings remain about the same. Notre Dame "should" win at least nine games. Ten or more wins would be a very good season. Less than nine wins would be very, very disappointing. I guess what has changed for me is my level of optimism that they will actually exceed nine wins. I still think they will, but the poor overall play of the defense and the loss of MF has reduced the margin of error for this team to almost nil.

3. The last two years against Purdue, a Notre Dame player has had their breakout game. In 2007 it was Golden Tate and in 2008 it was Armando Allen. Who do you think could have their breakout game against the Boilermakers this year?

I really, really hope that Shaquelle Evans or another wideout has the breakout game. For the longer term prospects of the team, we need to find another deep threat ASAP. But I'm not counting on it. I think the more likely breakout player is Jonas Gray. Armando Allen is nicked up and may not play, and almost certainly will not play as much this week. In his place Jonas Gray will get consistent carries, he will get into a rhythm, and he will grind down the Boilermakers. A slightly more conservative game plan will also alter the pass/run mix and mean more carries for Gray. I see him having a 100-yard game.

Another two possibles: Tight end Mike Ragone and linebacker Manti Te'o. Coach Weis has always liked two-TE sets, and the loss of MF is the perfect time to get really creative with his formations and personnel. Purdue knows that Kyle Rudolph can be trouble and will give him a lot of attention, opening things up for Ragone. Catch the ball when it comes your way Mike!

Besides Brian Smith, the Notre Dame linebackers have under-performed so far this season. If the starters aren't going to make any tackles or get to the opposing QB, why not put #5 in there and turn him loose? Let's see what the young phenom can do.

4. How would you grade the three new coaches on this year’s staff based on the first three games?

Offensive Line coach Frank Verducci gets an "A-". Jimmy has stayed upright and very productive. The running game is more consistently productive than any other time in Weis' tenure. The "minus" is for too many stupid penalties.

New Running Backs coach Tony Alford gets a "B+". The Irish running backs seem to be running with an entirely new level of confidence and decisiveness this season. Armando Allen is no longer falling over on first contact, and Jonas Gray doesn't even look like the same guy.

Defensive Line coach Randy Hart gets a "C-". His guys have been largely invisible so far this season. It has been so bad that when Ian Williams actually made a tackle last week I was genuinely surprised to hear his name called.

5. Your thoughts on Golden Tate’s stage dive into the Michigan State band? Was he trying to avoid running into the band? Was the whole thing intentional? Little of column A, little of column B?

It was totally hilarious. When I saw it, all I could think was "Lambeau Leap." Love the exuberance. Glad nobody got hurt. I always worry about guys getting a sheet music stand in the eye when they go into the band.

6. How has your opinion of the Notre Dame schedule changed from how you felt about it in the pre-season?

It doesn't look such a cakewalk now, does it?

• Michigan is MUCH better than expected.
• Washington BEAT the Trojans.
• Navy almost beat Ohio State.
• U-Conn, Stanford, Pitt all look to be legit.

The only team that looks less formidable than expected is USC who, despite losing to UW, has gone into the horseshoe and beaten Ohio State.

7. Should Jimmy Clausen be getting more hype for the Heisman?

Not yet. Jimmy has played well so far. But, seriously, throwing the ball up in the air knowing that Floyd and Tate are going to come down with it for a touchdown looks too easy. This week can be the start of Clausen's Heisman campaign if, without Michael Floyd to lean on, he can carve up Purdue for 300+ yards and three or four TDs. If Jimmy can make Robby Parris and Duval Kamara look like All-Americans, then any Heisman talk will be deserved.

Go Irish! Beat the Boilermakers!

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Notre Dame Shaking Down the Thunder in 2009

Put up or shut up. That seems to be the consensus among the Irish faithful and the college football cognoscenti regarding Notre Dame's 2009 football season. The Irish return almost the entire offense from a year ago, led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a junior heading into his third year as a starting QB who completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards last year with a 25/17 TD/INT ratio. Clausen will be playing behind an offensive line that has already amassed 100 career starts between them, which puts them among the most experienced offensive lines in the country. That line experience should translate into time to throw the ball for Clausen, and a new offensive line coach, Frank Verducci, will hopefully mean improved O-line play in the running game.

If Clausen does have time to throw, and he should, that means trouble for opposing secondaries. With Golden Tate and 2008 OC Domer Player of the Year Michael Floyd at wide receiver and Kyle Rudolph at tight end, Notre Dame has among the best receiving corps in the nation. All three players can stretch the field (they average 18.6, 15.0, and 11.7 yards per catch, respectively); none can be effectively covered by a single defender. And you can't double-cover all of them. If these three stay healthy, Clausen and the Irish offense should put up Brady Quinn-esque numbers in 2009. Tate, Floyd and Rudolph are complemented most notably by junior Duval Kamara (who has terrific size but needs to have a bounce-back year) and freshman Shaquelle Evans who has looked impressive in camp and is really pushing for early playing time.

The ability to stretch the field with the passing game should really benefit the Irish running game, led by 2008 leading rusher Armando Allen (134 carries for 585 yards; 50 receptions for 355 yds), who has been announced as the clear starter by Coach Weis. Allen will be accompanied in the backfield by James Aldridge (91 carries for 357 yds in '08), now the starter at fullback. Robert Hughes (112 carries for 382 yds in '08) will be first to spell Allen, but sophomore Jonas Gray and exciting freshman Cierre Wood will both see carries in 2009. The expectations with the running game are that the vertical threat of the passing game prevent defenses from stacking 8 defenders at the line of scrimmage, thus giving the running backs some room to work. Key will be whether the new offensive line coach can solve the short-yardage woes that have plagued Charlie Weis' offense since he arrived in South Bend. If these experienced backs, running behind an experienced group of linemen, can finally be counted on to reliably move the sticks in short yardage situations, thus sustaining drives and keeping our defense fresh, Notre Dame fans should be treated to a very enjoyable year.

In the off-season Charlie Weis shuffled the duties of his coaching staff a bit (he now has an associate head coach and two assistant head coaches), but the most significant result is that Jon Tenuta is now the defensive coordinator. Most expect that this will therefore be an aggressive, attacking defense that attempts to dictate the tempo of the game to opposing offenses and keep opponents back on their heels. In some respects the approach can be high risk - high reward, as the frequent blitzes Tenuta employs leaves defensive backs working in single coverage. Fortunately, the Irish secondary looks to be top-notch this year and should be more than capable of handling the assignment. The loss of safety David Bruton to the Denver Broncos will certainly be felt, but safeties Kyle McCarthy (110 tackles in 2008, most ever by an Irish defensive back) and Harrison Smith (57 tackles in '08 was 4th on the team) should fill in ably. Notre Dame is deep at the corners, led by Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton. If teams are going to move the ball on Notre Dame, it will not be through the air.

As in previous seasons, the concern with the Irish defense is up front. Once again, D-line is considered to be talented and scrappy, but probably a bit undersized. Nose Tackle Ian Williams weighs in just north of 300 lbs, but the other projected starting defensive tackle, the very disruptive Ethan Johnson, weighs just 275 lbs. The defensive ends, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal weigh in at 265 and 246 lbs. These players are all well suited to Jon Tenuta's aggressive defensive system, but it remains to be seen how stout they can be against teams that are content to run the ball straight at you. The defensive front seven have to show the ability to take on blockers heads-up and stuff a hole. The past two seasons have seen too many defenders trying to run around blocks, leaving big seams for opposing ball carriers to run through until a defensive back came up to make a tackle.

The top tackler among defensive linemen last season was the departed Pat Kuntz, whose 42 was 6th best on the team. The next D-lineman in tackles was nose tackle Ian Williams with 40 (8th best in '08). Digest that for a minute. Notre Dame's top five tacklers in 2008 did not include a defensive lineman. You might argue that it's the scheme, that the D-line is supposed to occupy blockers and let the linebackers run to the ball. I'd buy that, if the stats backed it up. But the top two tacklers for ND last season weren't linebackers. They were safeties. And it wasn't close. Kyle McCarthy led all Irish defenders with 110, David Bruton was 2nd with 97. Linebacker Maurice Crum was a distant third with just 65 tackles. Notre Dame's front seven needs to be much more effective this year stopping the run, so that the defensive backfield can worry less about run support and concentrate instead on defending the pass.

While the loss of Maurice Crum's leadership in the middle of the defense will be felt, the fact is that the guys replacing Crum are much more talented. Super-recruit Manti Te'o will get on the field early, likely playing alongside junior Brian Smith and sophomore Darius Fleming, although the competition for starting linebacker jobs is intense this season, and that's a good thing. Whoever plays, the linebackers have to step up this year in both stopping the run without DB help and in getting home and sacking opposing quarterbacks on Coach Tentuta's blitzes.

On special teams, freshman Nick Tausch came into camp and took control of the kicker position, winning both the kick-off job and the place-kicking job. I am very anxious to see the young man kick. Lack of a consistent place-kicker has plagued the Irish for two seasons, and the inability to kick the ball into the end zone for touchbacks has been frustrating. If Nick Tausch can bring Notre Dame's not-so-special teams up from "awful" to "average" it will be a big boost to Irish fortunes in 2009. Eric Maust remains the ND punter.

So how do I see this team shaping up in 2009? As I wrote in an earlier post:

With respect to Notre Dame football, there just isn't much uncertainty this year, other than the ultimate uncertainty of how many wins the Irish will put in the books. [...] For 2009, there just aren't many unknowns. The players in 2009 are almost without exception the same guys we watched lose at home to Syracuse and then win impressively in Hawaii. Same quarterback, same running backs, same linemen, same receivers. Same defensive players, with the exception of an opening at linebacker and an opening at safety.

So, given that we're going to see what is essentially the same group of players, each of them a year older, a year more mature (physically and emotionally), a year more experienced, what can we realistically expect?

The 2008 Fighting Irish posted a 6-win, 6-loss regular season and had a dominating performance in winning the Hawaii Bowl 49-21. That's a 7-6 overall record. Digging just a little deeper, however, one quickly learns that the 2008 squad, from a talent perspective, should have posted a 9-3 regular season record. The losses to Michigan State (argh), Boston College and USC were never really in doubt. But ND blew double digit leads against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. A team with a little more experience, and a little more maturity, doesn't lose those games in 2008. So while they fully earned their 6-6 mark, from a talent and ability standpoint the Irish were arguably playing at the level of a 9-3 squad.

Is it unreasonable to expect the 2009 Fighting Irish, with the added maturity and experience, to play at least at that 9-3 level this season? I do not think that's unreasonable at all. And that's before you even begin to look at the 2009 schedule.

Let's go ahead and look at that schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).


Sept. 5: Nevada. The danger in this game is that the Irish fail to take this good team from the wacky WAC seriously enough while looking ahead to the Michigan game. In 2008 the Wolf Pack's offense was potent and balanced, led by QB Colin Kaepernick who is a true dual threat with 1,100 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing last season. 2009 will be his third season as a starting QB. The Irish defense's speed and athleticism should be able to slow Kaepernick enough to allow Jimmy Clausen and the ND offense to win the game by scoring at will against a poor Nevada defense whose main weakness is in the secondary. Key to the game will be the Irish defense getting off the field on 3rd Down and the Notre Dame offense controlling the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. (Isn't that always the key?). The point is, Nevada is dangerous and if you don't take care of business they are good enough to ruin your entire season in Week 1. I will be watching this game closely to see if the 2009 Irish dominate a less talented team like they should, rather than playing down to the level of the opponent and keeping the game "interesting" far longer than they should (see: 2008 season opener against San Diego State). Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%

Sept. 12: @Michigan. It was a party in Notre Dame Stadium as the Fighting Irish blew out the Wolverines in what must have been a cathartic 35-17 victory following the travesty that was 2007. While Notre Dame looked impressive that day, they were helped by 6 UM turnovers and actually had some problems slowing down the Wolverine running game in the person of Sam McGuffie. I expect UM to cut down on the turnovers and put up a better fight in the Big House, but they are still in a serious re-building mode and are expected to start a freshman at quarterback. Add to their already substantial problems the exploding controversy about the Wolverines and Dick Rod being a bunch of cheaters and I expect UM to be distracted and confused enough for the Irish to get a nice road win in a physical game. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Sept. 19: Sparty. I hate those guys. Coach Weis is 1-3 against Michigan State which, to coin a phrase, is not good enough. In 2007 MSU beat ND by 17 pts. In 2008 the margin was 16 pts. This is not progress. Notre Dame's problems against Sparty have been in the trenches. MSU has been more physical than the Irish on both sides of the ball and that has told the tale. ND has been unable to run the ball with any success, and has had difficulty contending with the Spartan power rushing attack. This game will be an important test against a very good team. Will the experienced Irish O-line finally be able to assert itself in the running game? Will the Irish front seven on defense be able to man up and compete with MSU's power game? MSU will be a very good team and probably the second toughest game on the Irish schedule. But Sparty will badly miss the leadership of talented QB Brian Hoyer and the production of RB Javon Ringer. Irish win a battle at home. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%

Sept. 26: @Purdue. Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 last season. Purdue's top three rushers, top two passers, and top two receivers from that team are gone, to be replaced by untested players led a by a first year head coach. The defense does return a lot of experience, and talent, but Purdue is going to have a tough year. The Irish defense should force some turnovers and lead Notre Dame to a convincing win in West Lafayette. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%






Oct. 3: Washington. The once proud Huskies were winless in 2008 and own a 14-game losing streak. But they got rid of Coach Tyrone Willingham and brought in former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to be the new head coach. No doubt they will eventually get better, but the Irish crushed UW last year 33-7 in Seattle, and one would have to expect a similar result when the Huskies visit Notre Dame Stadium in '09. Sarkisian will have the team playing with more heart and pride, no doubt, but even with touted QB Jake Locker healthy again, Notre Dame fans know all too well how hard it can be to overcome a Ty Willingham-created talent deficiency. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%

Oct. 10: -Bye-. Great spot for the bye week. Five games played and USC next up on the schedule. Gives the coaches and players a chance to re-group, get healthy, and take some time to prepare for the Trojans.

Oct. 17: USC. Toughest game on the schedule, again. It's great to get USC in Notre Dame Stadium. Unfortunately the Trojans are coming off a bye week as well. But they may well need it, having already played Ohio State and Cal, both on the road. A third tough road trip this early in the season could have the boys of Troy feeling a little ragged. Of course, USC is loaded, particularly at running back and receiver. But they just announced that true freshman Matt Barkley will be the starter at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. Recalling last year's painful game in the Coliseum, the Notre Dame defense actually played pretty respectably against the Mark Sanchez led Trojan offense. But the complete inability of the Irish to move the ball meant the defense was on the field all night, usually with their backs against the wall. Given the loss of so many 2008 Trojan defensive players, the Irish offense should fare better in 2009 (It really hurt that Michael Floyd was injured and unable to play against USC in '08). Likewise, the Irish defense should have more success this year playing against a true freshman at QB. I still can't predict an Irish victory, given that the gap between the two programs is too wide to close in the space of one season. Two things can really help Irish chances in this game. First, the students MUST go to the game. October 17 falls on the first weekend of Fall break, and it would be tough to win the game if the students go home for break and leave empty seats in the stadium. The team will be pumped up if everyone stays for the game and gets LOUD. Second, pray for snow. Or at least a really miserable cold, rainy day. Those Southern California kids HATE the cold. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 40% (i.e., 40% chance of Irish win)

Oct. 24: Boston College. My irritation at losing to Boston College (6 straight) is probably second only to my irritation at losing to Sparty. BC has a new head coach, although he's been in the program for a while, in Frank Spaziani. They do return some experience for '09 (13 or 14 starters depending upon who you read), but will be breaking in a new quarterback and installing a new offesnive system. The Irish lost to the eagles at BC in '08 by a 17-0 score, in a lackluster game featuring awful playing conditions and reportedly an Irish QB battling the flu. Despite the score, ND had more yards and more first downs than BC, but Jimmy Clausen threw four interceptions that killed off any chance te Irish had of scoring. Bring this game home to the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium (and hopefully in front of the students on Fall break who stayed on campus or came back early to cheer on the team), eliminate the INTs, and sprinkle in a little payback, and Notre Dame should FINALLY get over the hump against the Eagles. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Oct. 31: Washington State (@ San Antonio). That's right, San Antonio. wtf? Presumably, a lot of die-hard Notre Dame fans living in or near Texas will pack the Alamo Dome (or wherever the game is being played), giving the Irish a nice "home field" avantage for this neutral site game. I am also presuming that Charlie Weis will be using this game as a showcase of the program for Texas-based high school recruits and potential recruits. Otherwise this game makes no sense to me. All that said, the Cougars beat Portland State and Washington last season (in OT, at home). They lost every other game, most of them by very ugly lopsided scores. They'll be better this year (they would have to be, wouldn't they?), but they won't give the Irish much trouble. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%


Nov. 7: Navy. The Middies had a very nice 8-5 season in '08 under first year coach Ken Nimuntuukomuntotrklo, and gave the Irish a scare last season in a 27-21 ND win. But Navy has to replace all their top offensive weapons from '08 (rushing, passing receiving). They will play valiantly but lose to ND @ ND. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%


Nov. 14: @Pittsburgh. The third toughest game on the schedule, Notre Dame lost at home to the Panthers last season in quadruple overtime, 33-36, blowing a game they led 17-3 at halftime. This year the game is in Pittsburgh. The Panthers return nine offensive starters (but not LeSean McCoy), and four defensive starters (but not defensive leader Scott McKillop). It should be a real tester for the Irish on the road, but hopefully the desire to atone for last season's embarrassing collapse will be the difference. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%

Nov. 21: Connecticut. The Huskies lose their top rusher (Donald Brown, 2083 yards in '08) and starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen 48.8 pct., 869 yds passing) off a team that went 8-5 with a Bowl win last season. Starting at quarterback for U-Conn in '09 is a familar face - former Notre Dame QB Zach Frazer, who was 46 of 83 (55.4%) for 536 yds, 2 TDs and 6 INTs for the Huskies in '08. You may recall that Zach was the first big recruit to commit to Coach Weis after he took over at Notre Dame. Upon his transfer out of the program I wrote:

I can only wish Zach all the best. When they write the book on the Charlie Weis era, Zach Frazer should have a small chapter in it all to himself, as he was a pivotal character in the Weis story. Zach was the first big recruit landed by Coach Weis. Zach was the answer to the question: Will this former NFL assistant coach be able to bring premiere talent into the Notre Dame program when competing against experienced college head coaches in the recruiting wars? Zach Frazer was a high school junior with a big arm, big numbers, and big hype. He was rated four stars at both Rivals.com and Scout.com. His verbal commitment sent shock waves throughout the Notre Dame community and throughout college football. It served notice that Coach Weis was a serious, energetic, and aggressive recruiter. No longer would Notre Dame wait, and wait, and wait before finally tendering offers to 4- and 5-star athletes. From now on, we were going to get into the hunt early and force other programs to play catch up. With one verbal commitment from Zach Frazer, Coach Weis (and Zach) changed the perception of Notre Dame's talent level. Zach took the Irish from being a program of mostly 3-star talent with some 4-star athletes sprinkled in, to being a program with 4-star talent sprinkling in some 5-star players. After his verbal commitment, Zach continued to help build the program by actively recruiting other top talent to come to Notre Dame. [...] Prior to the arrival of Charlie Weis, Notre Dame was losing 1- 2- and 3-star quarterbacks to transfer when they learned they either weren't going to be the starter (LoVecchio) or weren't going to be the primary back-up QB (Wolke, Olsen). Notre Dame now expects to lose a 4-star quarterback who can't crack the top 3 positions on the depth chart. That is a dramatic change, and we ironically owe that change, at least in part, to Zach Frazer.

Frazer's 2 TD / 6 INT ratio last season is worth noting, since interceptions were a problem for him at Notre Dame as well. In the 2007 Blue & Gold game Zach was 0 for 4 with an INT, which set the table for his departure from South Bend. I'm guessing Coach Weis will be able to find some Zach Frazer videotape for Coach Tenuta to digest in preparation for the U-Conn game. U-Conn comes to Notre Dame after a bye week and they will be looking to get a BIG win for their rising program. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Nov. 28: @Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh has brought some toughness (one might say dirty play) to the Farm, and Stanford is no gimme for anyone. Notre Dame beat the Cardinal 28-21 in '08 in Notre Dame Stadium, so a road game against a team that returns 17 starters from last season, including all the key playmakers, is no picnic. Still, it is Stanford, who will be hosting the Irish the week after hosting the Cal Bears in the annual "Big Game." There's a significant chance that Stanford could have a letdown when Notre Dame shows up. This game reminds me of the 2005 game between these two teams. Brady Quinn's Notre Dame squad was highly ranked and traveling to Palo Alto in need of a win to secure a berth in a BCS Bowl game. The game was a real battle, with the Irish coming out on top 38-31 and on their way to the Fiesta Bowl to face Ohio State. The '09 ND v. Stanford game could have similar implications. If Notre Dame has the kind of season they are capable of having, a win against the Cardinal could punch their ticket to a BCS Bowl game. In that case, I would expect ND to be very motivated, and to be playing very well if they are in that position. Stanford would be pesky but ultimately no match for Notre Dame. If, however, Notre Dame does not live up to expectations and needs a win against Stanford to earn a trip to a lesser bow game, and if Stanford could improve their bowl outlook with a big win, this game could be close again. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Conclusion: You've already heard all about the predictions of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook, who each have Notre Dame playing in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, so I'm not sure what else I can add. I am as optimistic as any Notre Dame fan, but even I don't predict an appearance in the Championship game. To get there would require a 12-0 season, which of course means beating USC, which I personally think is only about a 40% possibility. I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.

Spring Blogkeeping - Some changes at OC Domer

It's been fairly quiet here at OC Domer over the past few weeks. In part it's because I find it difficult to contribute to the conversation in any meaningful way during spring football practice, which I have written about before. In part it's because other events at work and at home have nudged my blogging habit to the sideline for a bit. And it's also because I have been doing a lot of thinking about the future of the OC Domer blog and what it will look like going forward. I'll have more on that in a moment, but first I want to point out some of the minor tweaks I've made to the blog in the past few weeks.

• I've discontinued the "OC Domer International" feature on the sidebar. When I first started the blog I was pretty fascinated with my traffic and where it was coming from. The novelty of seeing hits from exotic places around the globe led to creation of the list of other countries with OC Domer readers. It was a lot of fun, but the thrill is pretty much gone and I haven't been maintaining the list for a while now. Before discontinuing the feature I was up to about 80 different countries, which is pretty cool. One interesting tidbit about the OC Domer International feature: One of the most common recurring sources of traffic to the blog was Google searches for the phrase "twirlers" from Muslim countries. There are sects in Islam that practice twirling (basically spinning in a circle really fast until one gets really dizzy and enters an enhanced state). (I know that is a gross over-simplification but I'm not interested in a treatise on religious practices right now). The humorous part is that Googling the word "twirlers" (or variations thereon) for a while would hit on my Purdue preview post from the 2007 season, which was a sarcastic look at the Golden Girl and all the other baton twirlers and band auxiliary elements surrounding Purdue's football program. Somehow I doubt that the Golden Girl is what the searchers from these Muslim nations were looking for. Or at least I hope so.

• I have dropped the sidebar ad for the FootballFanatics.com website. Not because I don't believe in the products (it's a great place for your Irish merchandise), but because I wasn't seeing any return on investment. It's actually pretty darn funny. When FootballFanatics first approached me about advertising on my blog, I really agonized about whether I wanted to commercialize OC Domer, which I do because I enjoy it, not to make money. Part of me didn't want to "sell out." But I decided that I believed in the product and would really be doing my readers a service by offering them a trusted source for their Notre Dame gear. So I opened my account with them and put up the ad. I sold my soul. And that ad generated exactly ZERO sales for FootballFanatics and ZERO cash for the OC Domer. So it's gone. I may sell out for Google Ads instead. We'll see.

• Fairly early in the history of OC Domer I was seeing traffic coming from Facebook.com, but I wasn't a member of Facebook and I couldn't see what was generating the hits. So I signed up for Facebook. My page isn't very fancy, but it gives me another way to keep up with my kids, and I even have a few Notre Dame football players as Facebook friends. I have added a badge that links to my Facebook page in the sidebar, and the badge even includes my Facebook status. If you're on Facebook, "Friend me!"

• One of the biggest stories to come out of spring football this year is that Notre Dame Head Football Coach Charlie Weis is "Twittering." Twitter is an internet application which has been called "micro-blogging." Basically Twitter allows a user to use the text messaging feature on their cell phone to broadcast short messages to anyone in the Twitter world who has signed up to "follow" that user. The user's Twitters (I think they are actually called tweets or twits?) also are automatically posted to the user's Twitter web page. Coach Weis is Twittering under the handle NDHFC. As of this moment Charlie has 1,877 followers, including OC Domer. I have installed an application at the top of the OC Domer sidebar that shows my readers NDHFC's last five Tweets, as well as a link to NDHFC's Twitter page. So come back to OC Domer to follow Coach Weis' Twitter updates, or sign up to follow him yourself. Charlie tends to send a flurry of messages in the morning when there is going to be football activity that day, and a flurry at night recapping the day's football events. He's kind of fun to follow as he doesn't really have the hang of the very brief Twitter text message format yet. He tends to send long messages that take up several Tweets. This morning's flurry of updates was all about the upcoming Blue & Gold game.

• In order to figure out the best way to install the NDHFC Twitter feed on the OC Domer sidebar, I had to sign up for Twitter myself and tweak one of their applications to get the NDHFC feed. At any rate, OC Domer is now Twittering too. I've added a Twitter badge to the sidebar that will take you my Twitter page. If you're completely insane you can follow my utterly ordinary existence. I have a way to go to catch up with Charlie's 1,877 followers. I tend to Tweet about current events from my own Right Wing Extremist perspective.

Which brings me to the biggest change at OC Domer, and the one that I have been thinking about a lot lately. In the history of the blog I have occasionally posted my thoughts on political topics. Ironically, the political posts tend to generate a lot more feedback and comments than my very thoroughly researched and cleverly written football posts. Many of the comments I get on those posts are positive and supportive, but a certain percentage come from folks who not only disagree with me, but who feel that such posts have no place on OC Domer. Given current events in America, I have been moved to write more about politics and other topics and I have been debating about whether I wanted to put those items on OC Domer or whether I wanted start another blog focusing on politics and current events. At the end of the day I decided that OC Domer is my baby and it is who I am. I don't owe it to anybody to partition my life according to their preferences. So right now I intend to start putting more politics/current events posts on OC Domer. I expect that the vast majority of my readers will be able to cope with that. Some will enjoy the posts, some will ignore those posts. The immature will attack me for daring to post my personal opinions on my personal blog, and they will call me names if they disagree with me rather than engage in civil debate. Some will stop reading me altogether. I'm a big boy, I can take it. OC Domer will still largely be about Notre Dame and Notre Dame football, especially during football season. But we're going to be branching out and growing the brand, so to speak. I just wanted to give my readers a heads-up and an explanation before we make this minor change in course.

Playmakers. Final Thoughts on the Purdue Game.

Before we move on to Stanford, I wanted to lay out very quickly my impressions following Saturday's very encouraging win against Purdue. I haven't gone back to dig out the stats to prove this point (I really need an intern here at OC Domer), but the game seemed to me to be the most balanced, complete overall game played by the Irish since playing Army on November 18, 2006. You may need to go back farther than that if you factor in the overall quality of the opponent, since Purdue in 2008 is better than Army of 2006.

The Irish had a terrific run/pass mix (40 rush, 39 pass) and was impressively effective in both modes (5 yards per rush, 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 13.8 yards per pass completion). Notre Dame did not turn the ball over via fumble or interception, only allowed one QB sack, and went 3 of 4 in the Red Zone. The Irish outplayed Purdue in both the punting game (net yards per punt: ND 42, PU 39.2) and the kicking game (net yards per kickoff: ND 51, PU 38.8) and won the field position battle with an Average Starting Field Position (ASFP) of the 29 yard line compared to Purdue's ASFP of the 21 yard line. The defense did give up some yards and a few points, but they held Purdue's pass-happy attack to fewer total yards than the Irish (462 vs. 476) and scored a defensive touchdown on a Robert Blanton 47 yard interception return for a TD.

All in all it was a very good day to be Irish.

There were four themes that popped into my head as I thought about the Purdue game: Playmakers, Youth, Respect, and Maturity. I'll hit briefly on each one.

Playmakers. Notre Dame has playmakers again. We had none last year, and frankly even the Brady Quinn led Irish lacked many real playmakers. By playmakers I'm talking about guys who scare the other team. Players who are essentially walking touchdowns. Guys who on THIS PLAY RIGHT NOW will take it to the house if you make a mistake and your foot slips in coverage or you miss a tackle. I'm talking about guys like Tim Brown and the Rocket. If Notre Dame is going to return to the highest levels of college football, we have to have playmakers. You need playmakers to keep up with the USCs and LSUs of the world. It is very exciting to see that type of talent wearing the gold helmets. Kudos to Charlie Weis for convincing those young men to come play at Notre Dame.

Youth. The guys making plays are YOUNG. From quarterback Jimmy Clausen to running back Armando Allen, to receivers Golden Tate, Michael Floyd, and Kyle Rudolph, they are young. Guys in the O-line, on the D-line, at linebacker and in the secondary are YOUNG. And the point is not that they are on the field, but that they are playing at a high level and they are making plays. The fact that these guys are #1 on the depth chart as freshman and sophomores tells us that they are very talented, and that the coaching staff is doing an excellent job getting guys ready to play. Those who were calling for Charlie Weis' head should take note. These kids represent a level of ability that we have not seen at Notre Dame since the Lou Holtz era. And more help is on the way. Sure, there is still a lot of growing to do, but the future is bright.

Respect. Purdue showed us something that we haven't seen from a Notre Dame opponent in a long time: RESPECT. Because the offensive line has vastly improved in pass protection, because we have true speed on the outside and are getting good play from the quarterback, Purdue was forced to respect the vertical threat from our passing game. They had to keep their secondary players back in coverage to help out their overmatched corners. And when they didn't respect our vertical threat, David Grimes took them deep straight down the middle of the field for a TD. That respect is what opened up the running game. No more loading the box and daring the Irish to throw. Purdue's corners were giving Irish wide receivers a 12-yard cushion. When was the last time you saw a Notre Dame receiver get a 12-yard cushion? RESPECT.

Maturity. These players are young, but they are growing up fast. As I recounted above, no turnovers, one sack allowed, excellent special teams play, win the field position game. All signs of maturity. But there were signs on an individual level as well. Clearly the light bulb has gone on for Armando Allen. He was finding big running lanes and he no longer hits the ground on first contact. Kyle Rudolph has gone from a young tight end with great potential as a receiver who was a real project as a blocker to a complete player in just about a month's time. Many of the key runs on Saturday featured excellent seal blocks from Rudolph. He still isn't going to punish a bull-rushing defensive end in pass protection, but his improvement is impressive. And Jimmy Clausen is starting to figure it out. He is running the team, recognizing defenses, changing the play at the line into better plays. And he is seeing the field better. One of the biggest knocks on JC to date has been that he locks onto a receiver early and leads the defensive back right to his target, resulting in an INT. I haven't gone back to look for more examples, but I saw two plays from Clausen in particular that were very encouraging. One example that was highlighted on the broadcast included JC looking to his right for a receiver, then at the last moment looking left and completing the pass to another target. He is actually looking off the safety! On another play Jimmy was in the pocket looking, looking, looking for a receiver, then he finally checked down and dumped the ball off to Armando Allen for a decent gain. He is going through his progression and hitting the check-down when nothing is open! He's on his way to being very, very good. Maturity.

Pummel Purdue!

Purdue. Harumph. I have to admit, as a die-hard Notre Dame fanatic I have trouble mustering a lot of emotion for the Purdue Boilermakers. Traditionally being Notre Dame's third Big Televen opponent each season, they tend to get short shrift, passion wise. Michigan is first, and the passion, the intensity, the gravitas of those games is palpable. Michigan State is second, and the disdain and disrespect and active dislike is manifest. Purdue is third. Yawn. Despite the historic nature of the series between these two teams, nobody (at least nobody on the Notre Dame side) cares that much about it. As an "in state rivalry" it's pretty tame. The series has been lopsided (Notre Dame is 51-26-2 in the previous 79 games against PU), and the game rarely matches two highly ranked opponents. It's almost always the scrappy underdog Purdue Pete trying to derail the lofty ambitions of the favored Fighting Irish. Coupled with Big Televen fatigue, this game often feels like playing basketball in the driveway against your younger brother. You play to win, and if you're paying attention and focus a little bit you almost always do win. But every once in a while you get lazy and he beats you, which means a lot more to him than it does to you. Good for you little fella - nice game.

One of my favorite posts from last season was the Purdue preview post. It was a fun and lightly informative look at the match ups between the Purdue Band (and its auxiliaries) and the band, cheerleaders and mascots of the Fighting Irish. I won't repeat it here, but I encourage you to check it out if you're looking for a little diversion. (Interesting side note on last year's Purdue preview post. It is one of the most frequent OC Domer posts to get direct hits from the google search engine. The search term that brings 'em in is "twirlers" or some variants thereon, and the hits come from Muslim countries all around the world. I often chuckle because I doubt that they get what they're looking for when they get a look at the Golden Girl, the Girl in Black, and the Silver Twins.)

The Purdue game was a significant turning point in the 2007 season. As I wrote after the game:

The Fighting Irish actually had some fight in them at Purdue, and for the first time this season found themselves in a football game that they still had a chance of winning in the fourth quarter. To get there, Notre Dame showed tremendous grit in climbing out of 23-0 half-time hole behind back-up quarterback Evan Sharpley to get within one score (26-19) with 7:58 remaining in the game. For one brief, shining moment the Irish faithful across the land, and the Purdue fans in Ross Ade stadium, could feel that Notre Dame might actually win a football game.

And:

The more you look at the numbers, the more disappointing it is that Notre Dame lost this game. We had more passing yards (377 to 252) and more total yards (426 to 371). Purdue had six more first downs than Notre Dame (27 to 21), but six of their first downs came via Irish penalty. Although it seemed at the time as though Kory Sheets was gashing us, he only averaged 5.2 yards per carry (that isn't good, it's just not as bad as it seemed), and Purdue as a team averaged only 2.8 yards per rush. Had the Irish cut down on the penalties, performed better on special teams, and not committed three turnovers we likely win that game. That sounds somewhat stupid because of course we did commit too many penalties, we did turn the ball over, and we did play poorly on special teams. The point is not that we should have won the game - we didn't play well enough to win. The point is how close we are getting to playing winning football. Purdue was a Top 25 team (barely), and we matched them in touchdowns and bested them in total yards. When you compare Saturday's performance to the previous four games you cannot help but be very encouraged by the progress this team is making week to week. We've gone from "can't block, can't tackle, can't score, blown out" to "penalties and turnovers cost Irish surprisingly close game."

And of course the progress continued the following week as the Irish flew out to the Rose Bowl and got their first win of the season against the UCLA Bruins.

This year's game in Notre Dame Stadium features two very closely matched teams. Each team is 2-1. The betting line has the Irish favored by a mere one point (usually the home field advantage is worth about three points on the betting line, which means that if this game were being played in West Lafayette or on a neutral field Purdue would likely be favored). The Jeff Sagarin rankings (which are beginning to produce some mildly interesting data three or four games into the season) has Purdue ranked #57 and Notre Dame ranked #58, although Sagarin has Notre Dame's schedule ranked #42 in toughness compared to Purdue's #122.

The Purdue offense has been modestly more successful than the Irish "O", particularly in the running game where the Boilers have been "mediocre" compared to ND's "pathetic". While Purdue is averaging a few more passing yards per game, the yards-per-attempt and yards-per-completion for these two teams are almost identical.

The defenses have had similar statistics year-to-date, with the edge to Purdue, but I believe that edge is more than offset by the fact that Notre Dame has played two games against BCS-conference opponents, while PU has played two games against non-BCS teams (Northern Colorado and Central Michigan).

Given the apparent parity between these two teams coming into the game, it will be decided by the factors that normally decide close games: Field position, turnovers, and special teams. Notre Dame has generally been performing much better in all those categories this season, and if that trend continues the Irish should win this game. While I would love to see Notre Dame pound Purdue with the running game, I am not holding my breath for it. The Irish couldn't run the ball against the Boilers last year, and they couldn't run it last week against MSU. What the Irish do seem to be able to do is throw the ball, and that's what I expect to see on Saturday.

In addition to the normal OC Domer obsession with winning the field position battle I want to add a couple points of emphasis for this week: First, no turnovers in the Red Zone. Second, convert at least 66% of our field goal attempts, including all attempts inside 40 yards.

I'm trying to find a way to articulate how important this game is for the Irish. But really, they're all critically important. A win tomorrow equals the win total for all of 2007, puts the Irish at 3-1 and constitutes another big stride back towards respectability. A loss, even a close loss, puts the Irish at 2-2 and leaves them mired in mediocrity for at least another week. The importance of this game is to show significant improvement since last year and to begin to re-establish the habit of winning at Notre Dame. Before we can return to the national stage and play in truly big games, we have to develop the habit of winning. We have to routinely win the games we're supposed to win. The Irish failed that test last week. They get another crack at it against Purdue.

Go Irish! Pummel Purdue!