Wasn't That Special?

I worked feverishly last Saturday morning to complete my "2011 Irish Could Be Special" post before kickoff, so that I would have the right to bask in the glow of my own genius once the season was officially underway and had begun to unfold exactly as I had foretold.  Because that's why bloggers blog.  Well, the Irish performance wasn't exactly "special" in the way I had expected.  Saturday Night's "special" was more like this:

After watching the USF debacle I am having a very hard time deciding which was more bizarre: Two stadium evacuations due to lightning? Or the performance of the Irish on the field?  What follows here are my thoughts about what went down, as briefly as I can put them down.  Which is never brief enough, which is why I should quit doing this and get a life.

1.  It wasn't as bad as it looked and felt in the moment.  The Irish out-gained the Bulls by a factor of 2-to-1, 508 yards to 254 yards.  Although the performance was marred by atrocious lapses, you can't get too despondent over an offense that compiles 500+ yards, including 100+ yards and a 5.0 yards per carry average by the feature back.  The running backs had holes to run through, the quarterbacks generally had time to throw the ball.  What the QBs did with that time is another story.  The defense, in addition to holding USF to 254 yards, also allowed only one extended drive and yielded just one offensive touchdown.  That's a formula for success. South Florida's average gain per offensive play was just 3.5 yards, while ND had a 6.5 yard average gain per offensive play.

2.  In my "Irish Could be Special" season preview one common theme was that I expected the Irish defense to really be the backbone of this team and the key to its success.  The USF game was exactly the scenario I was contemplating.  The offense was struggling mightily to put points on the board, but the defense was stout and kept the team in the game.  Unfortunately, the offense was simply so inept that no amount of great defense could salvage the situation.  The "O" won't be THAT bad in the weeks to come, and this defense is good enough to win games for us.

3.  One really good thing I saw in the course of the game was the ability to make adjustments.  Early in the game the edge defenders were regularly losing contain and giving up some big plays around the end.  That wasn't happening any more in the second half.  The adjustments were made, the defensive ends/linebackers kept contain, and the same plays that hurt us in the first half were turned inside and snuffed out for short gains in the second.  As we move through a schedule that has Michigan's Denard Robinson and the twin option attacks of Navy and Air Force, the ability to adjust and play proper, disciplined assignment football will be critical.

4.  The one thing I didn't see from the defense was the big play - more specifically, getting the key turnover.  That was tied to a general lack of heat on USF QB Daniels, who the Irish sacked just twice for -7 yards.  While sound assignment defense is good, I really expected our defense to be more aggressive and disruptive.  Maybe we were being a little too cute with the game plan and saving some of those defensive wrinkles for Michigan?

5.  It really isn't fair to bash the entire offense for what happened on Saturday.  The O-line played a very good game, with only a couple of significant breakdowns that I recall.  As mentioned above, the running backs had room to move, the QBs had time to get the ball out.  The problem was limited to everyone on offense who actually touched the ball.

6.  I am guessing that Theo Riddick hasn't slept very well the past three nights.  His play on Saturday was awful.  Theo is a dynamic and exciting threat with the ball in his hands, which is why Coach Kelly has him returning kicks and punts in addition to being the number two wide receiver in the offense.   But if #6 can't figure it out and hold onto the ball, he's going be watching from the sideline.  Next man in.  I am wondering if Coach Kelly hasn't put too much on Theo's plate, and if we need to find someone else for punt return so Riddick can focus on his wide receiver duties.

7.  I feel a little bad for Jonas Gray.  His fumble (resulting in a record-long fumble-return TD) was a mistake, but I didn't think that it was completely egregious.  He was actually holding the ball pretty well.  Only when he was being held up by several USF defenders was one player able to really dig in and pry the ball loose.  Did anyone else think the referee was a little slow to blow the whistle on that play?  I thought Gray's forward progress was pretty clearly stopped.  And how is it that nobody in a gold helmet was in the area of the fumble to make the tackle and prevent any return at all?  Too much standing around.

8.  I mentioned in my season preview that I don't know who our third running back is, and also that I didn't know who was going to replace Robert Hughes.  The Gray fumble highlighted both issues.  Cierre Wood (who played a great game) is an exciting back.  He runs incredibly hard.  But that is a good news / bad news situation.  His hard running produces yards and points for the offense.  But it also wears him out.  He seems to need a lot of "breathers", and I am worried that he could get hurt.  He is not a bruiser.  He's tall and angular and reminds me of DeShaun Foster, who fought injuries throughout his short NFL career.  When he needs a break, Jonas Gray seems to be the only option right now.  Gray is not as dynamic as Wood, nor is he the power back that Hughes was.  The Gray fumble came in the type of goal-line situation that we saw Hughes in last year.  But I don't think Gray is going be a success in that role.  The point is, I think we need to see what our options are at running back after Wood and Gray, and develop that depth in a hurry.

9.  Speaking of the Gray fumble.  It occurred on 3rd down and goal to go from the 1-yard line.  Notre Dame had six Red Zone opportunities on Saturday and netted just two touchdowns, both of which came in the 4th quarter.  I haven't had the time to do a thorough analysis yet, but at some point I am going to take a hard look at Red Zone performance to get a feel for whether the Red Zone is an Achilles' heel for Coach Kelly's offense.  Has anyone seen a good analysis of that question?  To me, when you're trying to throw the fade route to Floyd on 3rd and goal you've run out of good ideas.  That damn fade route is such a low-percentage play, yet we run it all the time.  And we run it when everyone in the stadium knows we are going to run it.  It's a lousy call.  Roll the quarterback out, drag three receivers across the end zone, hit the open guy or run it in yourself. 

10.  I feel bad for Dayne Crist.  He has worked his butt off to come back from two knee surgeries and has given Notre Dame football his heart and soul.  Everyone says he is a great guy and an awesome teammate.  But I don't think he's going to make another start at quarterback for the Irish.  Although Dayne has the physique and the big, strong arm of the prototypical NFL quarterback, it doesn't appear that he has the calmness under pressure that makes some players "gamers."  It is said of the great ones (Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Joe Montana, Wayne Gretzky) that they experience the game in slow motion.  They are able to scan the field of play and clearly see what everyone is doing, and understand what his teammates and the opponents are going to do next, and then make the right play calmly and (seemingly) effortlessly.  One does not get that sense when watching Dayne play QB.  He just seems tight out there.  Trying way too hard not to f*$% it up.  Getting even tighter after he makes a mistake.  Although Dayne throws a beautiful ball, he takes too long to make the decision of where it needs to go and/or he misfires and throws an inaccurate pass resulting in an incompletion.

11.  Tommy Rees, who will make the start against Michigan, seems to be a "gamer."  He isn't perfect.  He has shown the ability to make mistakes and throws too many interceptions.  He isn't as tall as you'd like and he doesn't have the running ability or the rifle arm you'd like.  But he sure seems to have a better grasp of the offense than Crist, and he is definitely much quicker and more decisive about getting the ball out of his hand.  He seems to have no fear, and total faith in the offense.  If the pre-snap read calls for a pass to the tight end going down the seam with three defenders converging, then by God that's where the ball is going and he trusts his own ability to get the ball where it needs to be, and he trusts the receiver will make the play. He seems to have the memory span of a goldfish. (Goldfish were long thought to have such short memory spans that every lap around their tiny tank was filled with exciting "new" discoveries.  Scientists have since proven this to be untrue and unfair to the noble goldfish, but I have always loved this scientific tidbit and I cling to it for the purposes of this post).  Tommy is able to shrug off a bad play and approach the next snap as though the previous play never happened.  He is also very accurate with the ball.  The announcers on the broadcast were too distracted by Coach Kelly's teaching moment with TJ Jones to pick up on it, but did anyone else notice that on the Jones deflection and interception Rees literally stuck the pass in TJ's earhole?  Given that TJ wasn't looking for the ball and therefore did not adjust to the throw, that was very impressive.

12.  The team was 5 of 14 on 3rd-down conversions.  Not counting the 3rd-down rushing attempts, Dayne was 0 for 5 converting 3rd down via the pass.  He had one 4-yard completion on a 3rd-and-9, three incomplete passes, and one interception in the end zone.  That's four punts and one INT on five attempts to move the chains on critical 3rd-down.  Rees was 3 of 4 converting 3rd-downs via the pass.  He had one incompletion that set up the missed field goal attempt.  The other three times he completed passes to move the chains.  What is really remarkable when Tommy is in the game is how seldom he puts the team in a 3rd-down situations.  He led a 12-play, 76-yard drive that had only two 3rd-down plays: a 3rd-and-4 (converted via the pass) and a 3rd-and-goal from the 1 (converted by a Wood TD run).  He also led a 10-play, 99-yard drive that had only one 3rd-down play (3rd-and-9, converted by 12-yard pass to Eifert).

13.  So Tommy Rees is the Irish quarterback for now.  Did I mention that Rees was the OC Domer Player of the Year for 2010?  Just a little tidbit for you.  The question I have now is:  Who is number two?  If Tommy struggles, or gets hurt, is it Crist again?  Is the gap really that big between Crist and Hendrix or Golson?  If Tommy is the guy, the fact is that Dayne is a senior and is not likely to be your starter again.  When does Coach Kelly start getting Hendrix more practice reps, and game reps, to see if he gives the Irish a better chance to win that Crist?

14.  Much has been made of Coach Kelly's somewhat animated coaching style on Saturday.  Okay, I admit that I thought the guy was going to blow an aneurism and drop dead on national television.

I love Kelly coaching his team hard.  And I really, really love reading his lips when he is sharing a heartfelt moment with his team.  But even I thought he was over the line on Saturday.  Potential recruits don't want to see that.  Kelly lost his poise, and I thought he was unprofessional.  My guess is that Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick has addressed this issue.  Can I just say one thing though?  There are critics out there who have opined that Notre Dame should fire Kelly for treating his players this way, asserting that such behavior is unacceptable and should not be tolerated by a Catholic university.  When I first read this line of argument, all I could think is that the Catholic Church defended and protected pedophile priests for decades, if not longer.  Yet an angry football coach is beyond the pale.  Really?

15.  I didn't get the chance to put some of the final touches on my "Could Be Special" post Saturday, as I ran out of time.  I received some comments about being a "homer" and calling for a 12-0 season.  Those who have been with me a while know that I always put confidence level rankings next to my pre-season predictions.  My confidence level indicates how likely I feel it is that the Irish will win each of the games.  For example, my confidence level against USF was 70%.  Obviously, the result on Saturday fell within the 30% likelihood that we would lose.  I actually felt pretty good about my confidence level even after the game, because what were the odds, going into that game, that Notre Dame would commit the string of errors necessary for a South Florida win?  What were the odds of a 96-yard fumble return touchdown?  It has never even happened before.  The odds that David Ruffer misses a short field goal?  The odds that Harrison Smith gets personal foul penalties on back-to-back plays?  The odds that all those things happen in the same game?  And yet, despite all the disaster, Notre Dame lost by 3 points.  But to finish the thought, my confidence levels for the twelve games on the Irish schedule (posted here) are (in percentages):  70, 85, 70, 80, 90, 75, 70, 80, 90, 85, 85, 65.  If you add all those percentages up (using decimals, so 70% becomes .70), the result is a likely total of 9.45 wins.  So while I did think that Notre Dame had a shot at winning each of its twelve games, the math makes clear that a much more likely result is 9 or 10 wins.  With just a little luck we can still hit that target.  If it's ten wins instead of nine, this team can still hit my prediction of playing in a BCS bowl game.  It is much better to lose early than late, and I believe that South Florida will make some noise in the Big East and this loss, as painful as it was, won't hurt that much in the final polls.  But make no mistake, the loss to USF reduces the margin for error.

16.  Michigan is up next.  One thing we know for sure:  The Irish have more finish in them than the Wolverines.  The Big House experienced the same weather that caused the evacuations of Notre Dame Stadium, and it had to be emptied as well.  But unlike the Fighting Irish, the Wolverines decided to cancel the rest of their game against Western Michigan with 1:27 remaining in the 3rd quarter.  How embarrassing.

17.  The Wolverines had a fairly easy go of it against the Broncos, besides not having to actually play four quarters.  Denard Robinson was pretty balanced run versus pass, and didn't break any huge runs.  The key to the game on Saturday will be whether Coach Diaco has figured out what went so horribly wrong in trying to stop Robinson last season, and whether the Irish defense can make amends.  I expect the Irish to bounce back and play well under the lights in Ann Arbor.

Go Irish!  Beat Wolverines!               

2011 Irish Could Be Special

With kickoff for the new season less than 3 hours away, it's time to get myself on the record with my expectations for the 2011 Fighting Irish.  Bottom line:  BCS Bowl or Bust.  The 2010 edition of the Notre Dame football team compiled an 8-5 record that could have been (and arguably should have been) 11-2.

There is no way to argue the losses to Stanford and Navy.  Stanford was a very good team and there was no doubt that they were much better than N.D. last year.  The final score was 37-14, but the Cardinal was up 34-6 with less than eight minutes to play.  Navy gashed the Irish for 367 yards rushing yards, the most ever by Navy against Notre Dame.  The Middies put some wrinkles into their option attack that Notre Dame was unprepared for and unable to adjust to.  It was probably the worst coaching performance so far in the young Notre Dame career for Coach Kelly and his staff.

But the other three losses were all games that should have been won, and which almost certainly would have been won by the more seasoned Irish team that played the final four games of the season.  Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson had 502 total yards against N.D., and yet the Irish still led the game 24-21 before Robinson's game winning touchdown with 27 seconds left in the game.  Had Dayne Crist not been sidelined by a strange head injury for most of the first half, or had the defense been able to collect itself and contain the dynamic Robinson even a little bit, Notre Dame wins that game.

The Michigan State loss in overtime on a fake field goal was an even battle that could have gone either way.

The Tulsa loss was a gut-wrenching affair.  Even before kickoff the team was in emotional turmoil following the tragic death of Notre Dame student-videographer Declan Sullivan.  Although the Irish were in control for much of the game, Dayne Crist was knocked out of the game early due to a season-ending knee injury, and Tommy Rees, while throwing for 334 yards and 4 TDs, also threw 3 interceptions, including one that was returned for a Tulsa TD.  Add a Tulsa punt-return TD, and a failed two-point conversion returned by Tulsa for 2-points, and you get an awful loss.  It was a sloppy game marked by the loss of our starting quarterback in an emotionally difficult week.  In almost any other circumstance you have to figure the Irish find a way to win that game.

So, an 8-5 year that ended on a high note with four straight wins, including a thumping of The U in the Sun Bowl, could have been even better.  What does this mean for 2011?  With most of the key pieces coming back for another year in Coach Kelly's system, and with a very manageable schedule, I expect the Irish to win 10 games (and possibly more) and play in a BCS Bowl Game, with an outside chance of playing for the National Championship.

On offense, Dayne Crist has been tapped as the starting quarterback.  This shocked nobody, although I expect that Crist will be playing on a very short leash.  Before being knocked out of the Tulsa game last season on his second freaky non-contact knee injury in two years, the Irish were a disappointing 4-4.  Although Crist's numbers over those first eight games were actually pretty good (about 60% completions for over 2,000 yards and 15 TDs), a starting QB gets judged (or should be judged) on wins and losses, and on leadership.  A great quarterback exudes confidence and inspires the whole team to a higher level of play.  I don't feel that the Irish were getting that confidence and inspiration from Dayne in 2010.  To me, Dayne too often looked a little overwhelmed last season, with just a little bit of a "deer in the headlights" quality to his play.  By contrast, Tommy Rees, although lacking that stud QB physique and rifle arm, generally seemed very calm and in control of the game (even while throwing multiple interceptions).  The team certainly played better as a whole when he was the starter, and I am hesitant to just shunt aside they guy who led the most impressive four-game winning streak seen in Domerland in many years.  As alluded to above, Tommy did have a penchant for throwing a few more picks than did Dayne last year.  Crist threw 7 INTs in 294 attempts in 2010, compared to Tommy's 8 INTs in just 164.  Folks tend to focus on that stat, which is fair, but which needs a little context.  Three Rees INTs were in the Tulsa game, a game in which he had no idea he would be getting meaningful snaps.  He came off the bench and threw for over 300 yards and for 4 TDs, along with his 3 picks.  Three more picks came against USC in the L.A. Coliseum, in horrible conditions.  On the flip side, Rees' completion percentage on the season was actually better than Crist's (61% vs. 59.2%) and he threw 12 TD passes in just 164 attempts, while Dayne had 15 TDs in 294 attempts.

So while there is something noble in allowing Dayne to be the starter again coming off his injury, he needs to play well right away.  This team is good enough to make some noise nationally if the QB gets the job done.  I don't believe Coach Kelly will be as patient as he was last season, knowing that Rees is a proven winner off the bench.  In his press comments Coach Kelly has said some very glowing things about how Dayne has progressed since last year.  Am I the only one who read between the lines and heard the inference that Kelly was not terribly impressed or pleased with Dayne last season?  And it doesn't end with Crist and Rees.  Andrew Hendrix showed some impressive ability in the Blue & Gold game, and you can't help but be excited about Everett Golson.  Golson fits the mold for Kelly's offense of being a good passer who can drive a stake through the defense's heart with his legs.  It seems to me that the Irish have done well in the past with exciting dual-threat QBs from South Carolina.  The Irish seem to have four quarterbacks who could come in and be very effective.  I can't help but contrast this situation with what the team faced going into the 2007 season when we had four quarterbacks and were wondering if ANY of them could play.  (Frazer, Jones, Sharpley, Clausen).

I am excited about Cierre Wood at running back, spelled by Jonas Gray.  But I honestly don't even know who our third RB is.  Coach Kelly stated in one of his pressers that he would put his first 22 against anyone, but that depth was an issue.  Looking at the running back position, I can see what he means.  Cierre is a dynamic playmaker, and Gray has some toughness and reliability.  But those guys need to stay healthy.  I am very concerned that we don't have anyone on the roster to replace Robert Hughes.  Hughes was a real leader and embodied toughness when the Irish needed it.  Who is going to be the guy when we need that late, dominating drive to win the game like the Irish did at USC last year, with Hughes and the O-line imposing their will?

At receiver, we have Michael Floyd, Theo Riddick, and TJ Jones.  That is an awesome starting trio.  Floyd will be a key to our offensive success, but I hope he has actually gotten his off-field act together and we have seen the last of his immature behavior embarrassing the team and the University.  As at RB, the depth behind the starting receivers is a pretty steep drop-off as far as game-breakers go.  We have guys who can be be effective, but neither Toma nor Goodman strikes fear into the hearts of defensive coordinators like our starters can.  Tight end is not a feature position in Kelly's offense, but those duties should be very capably filled by Eifert and Ragone.

The offensive line appears to be very talented, and deep.  This line should give the offense some stability and give the team the chance to be effective from the get-go, in both the running and passing games.  They should also enable to Irish to control the ball and the clock when needed.

It's the defense that really has me excited bout 2011.  Although the D had some egregious low points in 2010 (Navy, Michigan, Tulsa), this unit clearly gelled late in the year allowing an average of less than 10 points per game in the final four contests (3, 3, 16, 17).  The performances against USC and Miami were dominant and inspiring.  Most of that unit returns, and for the most part the key losses will be very capably replaced.  On the back end, I am very comfortable with Robert Blanton replacing Darrin Walls at corner.  I am a little unsure about the two safeties.  Harrison Smith is a ball hawk and can make plays, but he is also the same guy who fell down at the end of the USC game and almost gave up the game-winning TD but for a lucky dropped ball.  There's a lot of Zibby in him, risk-reward.  Jamoris Slaughter and Zeke Motta are both upper-classmen with ample playing time and experience who should play well, but both players have been a bit under the radar and I don't have a real feel for my confidence level at that second safety position.

The front seven of the defense should be dynamic, disruptive, and at times flat-out dominant.  For the first time in a very long time the Irish D should be talented, deep, and stout at the point of attack.  This unit should be very difficult to run on, and the recruitment and development of explosive pass rushers will make opposing quarterbacks miserable.  Unlike the depth issues on offense, the problem on defense will be finding enough playing time for all the talent.  It will be fun to watch the upper-classmen rise to their potential (Manti Te'o, Ethan Johnson, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Darius Fleming) while also seeing the young guns flash their talent (Aaron Lynch, Louis Nix, Stephon Tuitt, Prince Shembo, Troy Niklas).

As this season unfolds, I expect the signature unit of the team to be the aggressive, stifling defense, rather than the efficient, potent offense.  There will be weeks when the offense sputters a bit, but the defense will be consistently good and will key Irish success in 2011. 

Special teams will be very solid.  Ruffer, Tausch, Turk all return to capably share the kicking/punting duties.  Theo Riddick has been named to return kicks and punts.  He will be very good as a returner, but I admit to being nervous about having such a key offensive player at risk of injury in the return game.  The fact that Riddick is by far the best man for the job confirms the lack of depth at RB and WR. 

I'll give a quick bite on each of the games for this season, as well as my confidence level for each game, as is the custom here at OC Domer.

South Florida (9/3).  The Bulls are a talented team that has was somewhat inconsistent in 2010.  What worries me is their head coach.  Skip Holtz is a former Irish player, an ND alum who coached at ND under has Dad.  He "gets" Notre Dame and I have to believe this game is a big-freaking-deal for him.  He is also a terrific coach, as he demonstrated by his success at East Carolina, a team nobody had ever heard of before he got there.  But Coach Kelly has familiarity with Holtz as a coach from their time together in the Big East, and Kelly has the more talented squad.  The defense will key an Irish win, but I don't expect a blowout.  ND 24, USF 13.  (Confidence level:  70%).

At Michigan (9/10).  The Irish lost a bizarre game last year.  Crist was on the sideline for most of the first half with vision problems, Denard Robinson was inexplicably impossible to tackle, and yet the Irish were with 27 seconds of winning the game.  Michigan is undergoing a coaching change and has seen a lot of layer defections in the off season.  The Irish are a significantly better team than they were a year ago.  Michigan is in a tough transition.  Irish earn a workmanlike win.  ND 30, UM 20. (Confidence level:  85%).

Michigan State (9/17).  I'm guessing Brian Kelly will remember losing in OT on a fake field goal forever.  I'm also guessing it doesn't happen again.  Mark Dantonio is a heck of a coach, and MSU will be very good again this year.  They just seem to reload with more of the same each year.  This will be a physical battle, but the Irish D is more stout up front than in previous years, and the offense should have an advantage spreading the field against Sparty.  And this time the game is at our place.  Irish win another close game, 24-21.  (Confidence level:  70%).

At Pittsburgh (9/24).  Irish won a close one at home in '10.  Pitt projects to have a very good defense in '11, but have a new head coach and are learning a new offense.  I expect the Irish D to win this game for us as the Irish O struggles a bit.  ND 20, Pitt 10. (Confidence level:  80%).

At Purdue (10/1).  It's Purdue.  Back-to-back road games for the Irish, but talent will tell.  Irish win comfortably, 45-20.  (Confidence level:  90%).

Air Force (10/8).   Glad to be back home in the friendly confines, but maybe peeking ahead to the USC game, this could be a trap.  Air Force is very experienced, and they beat a Navy team that whipped the Irish in 2010.  But the Falcons will be coming off a road game at Navy, and playing their first game of the season on grass.  Uncomfortably close, the Irish win 20-13.  (Confidence level: 75%).

Southern Cal (10/22).  The Irish get two weeks to prepare.  This year both teams should have their starting QBs healthy, and it should be a battle.  Barkley is really good, but his supporting cast is young.  NCAA sanctions are hurting Trojan depth, but bowl ban turns this night game into a Bowl game for USC.  The atmosphere of the night game should be electric, and I expect the Irish defense to build on last year's success to win another low-scoring contest.  ND 24, USC 14.  (Confidence level:  70%).

Navy (10/29).  This is Bob Diaco's big chance to redeem himself after getting burned badly by the Middies in '10.  I think he does so.  Could be a letdown game after USC though.  I think the Irish solve that pesky Navy offense and overwhelm them, 27-14.  (Confidence level:  80%).

At Wake Forest (11/5).  I love this game, because I like playing top level universities that take the concept of sudent-athlete seriously.  But the Demon Deacons aren't very good.  Irish win big, 40-13. (Confidence level:  90%).

Maryland (11/12).  The Irish are rolling now.  I would predict another blowout, but the Terps have a new coach, Randy Edsall, who proved at UConn that he doesn't buy into any Irish mystique.  Irish win comfortably, 35-17.  (Confidence level: 85%).

Boston College (11/19).   ND beat up the Eagles pretty well in 2010.  No reason for that not to repeat.  ND 38, BC 20.  (Confidence level:  85%).

At Stanford (11/26).  If they had asked me, I would have gladly hosted Jim Harbaugh's going away party.  This could be a HUGE game for the Irish.  If all goes well, a win in this game sets the Irish up for a BCS Bowl game.  If all goes REALLY well, this could be a game to decide whether ND gets to play in the BCS Championship.  For Stanford, the game figures to be "big" but not "BIG."  The Cardinal's fate in the Pac-12 will already be set.  Win or lose, they either will or won't be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  If they are in the conference title game, they could be looking past the Irish.  If they aren't, then this is a consolation game.  I much prefer a first-year head coach to playing Harbaugh.  The Irish are a much better team than they were in week 4 last year, and Stanford figures to take a step back, even with Luck at QB.  Irish win a real battle, 27-24, and earn a BCS Bowl berth if not better.  (Confidence level:  65%).

Conclusion:  I see the Irish with the very real potential to run the table.  But there very few gimmee games on the schedule, and if they have a couple injuries or show up flat, they could lose three or four.  I would predict that the breaks beat the boys a couple of times, and they end up 10-2, playing in a BCS Bowl.

Sorry I don't have time for pictures, etc... but it's almost kickoff!  Go Irish!

Brian Kelly Takes the Field: 2010 Expectations & Prognostications

The Notre Dame faithful have been waiting impatiently for the Brian Kelly edition of the Fighting Irish to take to the turf at Notre Dame Stadium, and now suddenly the first game of the 2010 season is bearing down on us like a runaway train and there doesn't seem to be enough time to brace for the inevitable collision. It's game week and there is much to do before kick-off on Saturday:

• Write my "Good Luck Coach Kelly" blog post. (Done).
• Prepare my pre-draft strategy and pre-rank players for the OC Domer Fantasy Football League draft. (Done).
• Submit my weekly picks for Subway Domer's college football pick 'em pool. (Done).
• Write my 2010 Fighting Irish season preview blog post (You're reading it).
• Write this week's contribution to the Irish Blogger Gathering. (Pending).
• Study NFL point spreads, pre-season college and NFL power rankings, and handicap three or four games for the contest against my Dad and my youngest brother. (Pending).
• Pre-trial preparation on my day job. (Really cramping my style!)

With so much still to be accomplished, I'm afraid the OC Domer season preview will be fairly short and sweet. Let's dive in!

What do I expect from Coach Kelly and the Irish in 2010? We've got a new coaching staff, a radically different playbook, but mostly the same players (although there are some surprises in the two-deep as several starters in 2009 have been passed up by new faces). Clausen & Tate are gone, but they are replaced by some outstanding, if raw, talent.

In trying to come up with a rational way of looking at the coming season I start with a few core assumptions:

1. Brian Kelly and his staff are at least as good at coaching today as they were at Cincinnati a year ago.
2. The player talent at Notre Dame is at least as good as the talent at Cincinnati.
3. The player talent at ND in 2010 is overall at least as good as it was in 2009.
4. The significant changes in coaches and system, coupled with a new quarterback, will result in a learning curve of some unknown duration and will result in some bumps in the road.

Viewing 2009 and 2010 through the prism of these assumptions leads me to some observations. The Cincinnati Bearcats went 12-1 last season (losing only to the Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl). The Fighting Irish were 6-6 in 2009. According to Jeff Sagarin, Cincinnati had the 44th toughest FBS schedule in 2009, while Notre Dame's schedule was ranked #37. That's not a significant difference. How is it that a team with less talent than Notre Dame could win six more games in 2009 than the Irish did when they both played comparable schedules?

The answer, of course, is that the Bearcats were better coached. They were significantly better coached.

And now, the coaching staff that won 12 games in 2009 with Cincinnati's talent is at Notre Dame with its more talented players (See Assumption 2). If the more talented players are coached as well as the Bearcats were last year (Assumption 1), then the Fighting Irish should be at least as good as, if not better than, the Bearcats of 2009, eventually (See Assumption 4, Learning Curve). At the very least, better coaching in 2010 should make the Irish better than they were in 2009 with a similar overall level of talent.

On offense, I expect that ND will end up with similar overall numbers as we saw under Charlie Weis when the offense was clicking. In 2009 the Irish ranked #32 in scoring offense (30.1 ppg) and #8 in total offense (451.8 ypg). Cincinnati was ranked #4 in scoring offense (39.3 ppg) and #11 in total offense (447.5 ypg). That isn't a huge gap between the programs in 2009. The difference I expect to see is that with the new scheme the offense will be more consistently productive. Fewer three & out drives. Less reliance on just throwing the ball up in the air and hoping that Tate or Floyd will make a great play. Less coming from behind and hoping Jimmy can pull off a miracle. I expect the new offense will steadily and reliably move the chains (albeit with a high tempo) rather than operate in fits and starts as we often did in 2009. Although the final numbers might look similar, the new offense will do a better job of controlling the game and managing field position. The receivers are a talented group (Floyd, Riddick, Jones, Rudolph), and after watching him in the Blue & Gold game I expect Cierre Wood to be a real home run threat every time he gets a small gap to run through. Much will of course depend on Dayne Crist. But Coach Kelly has a proven track record of getting his QBs ready to play at a high level.

On defense I expect to see improvement, but not drama. The Irish defense was a severe disappointment in 2009. The Corwin Brown & Jon Tenuta tandem blew up in Charlie Weis' face to some degree. There seemed to be some talent there, and it flashed occasionally, but the season was marred by atrocious tackling, missed assignments, and players out of position. The Notre Dame defense was ranked #63 in scoring defense in '09 (25.9 ppg) and #86 in total defense (397.8 ypg). Really, really disappointing. The Bearcats were better on defense in 2009, but only by about 20 spots. They were #44 in scoring defense (23.1 ppg) and #67 in total defense (374 ypg). That isn't a dramatic difference, but it is significant. Those 20 spots of defensive ranking appear to have been the difference between winning and losing close games. Notre Dame lost 6 games in '09 by a combined total of just 28 points. They lost to Michigan by just 4, Navy by 2, Pitt by 5, and UConn by 3. Cincinnati didn't lose any close games, but won three real nail-biters: By 3 over West Virginia, by 2 over UConn, and by just 1 over Pitt. The new defensive scheme seems to emphasize assignment football and keeping the play in front of you. No big plays, no high-risk high-reward blitz schemes. The D will be bend-but-don't-break, with an emphasis on fundamentals like TACKLING. The big plays will come when the opponent makes a mistake with an ill-advised throw, or a missed block, or a fumble. Make the opponent earn every yard and every point, and figure that we can slow teams down enough that the offense can out-score 'em.

I think the biggest difference we'll see will be very subtle. So subtle that you really won't see it unless you're looking for it. That difference will be game management. Coach Weis' teams were plagued by "bad breaks" or "bad luck" that resulted in blown leads, or wasted possessions, or missed opportunities that ended up costing the Irish winnable games. The lessons that Brian Kelly has learned in 20 seasons as a head coach will enable him to minimize the gaffes and the bad breaks and to maximize and seize upon the opportunities. Coach Kelly and his staff have a handle on the myriad small details upon which the outcome of a game can turn. As noted above, the Cincinnati Bearcats won all the close ones in 2009. And they won all the close ones in 2008 as well. Coincidence? I think not.

So I see a dynamic, entertaining offense, with the ball getting quickly into the hands of numerous play makers who will be fun to watch. I see a scrappy, fundamentally sound defense that makes offenses earn every yard. And I see a team that will look well-coached and disciplined and which minimizes mental errors. How do all these things translate into Win and Losses?

Let's look at the schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).

Sept. 4: Purdue. We beat the Boilers in '08 and '09, so getting them in our place with all the excitement of a new coach and a new season should mean a win. Normally Purdue is somewhat overlooked on our schedule as the third or fourth game of the year, typically coming off tough games against Michigan and Michigan State. This usually means that Purdue is a little more focused and "up" for the games than the Irish are. Not this year. This year Purdue is batting lead-off, and all Irish eyes are on the Boilers. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 85%.

Sept. 11: Michigan. We lost a game that should have been an important win for Charlie Weis in the Big House last season. But we get the Wolverines at our place this time, and UM's off-season has been filled with tumult and distractions. Plus, they can't cheat by breaking NCAA practice rules this year. The new Irish coaches are very familiar with Dick Rod's spread offense, so we should defend it much better this year. The desire to atone for the 2009 debacle in Atrocity in Ann Arbor will get the Irish off to a 2-0 start. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%.

Sept 18: @Michigan State. Night game in East Lansing. First road start for Dayne Crist, very hostile environment. Possible let-down off the win over Michigan. I am not convinced yet that our guys can go toe-to-toe with a very physical Sparty squad, which will have played two cupcakes as warm-ups prior to the ND game. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 45%. (i.e., 45% chance of Irish win).

Sept. 25: Stanford. Andrew Luck is a really nice quarterback. And Jim Harbaugh is an excellent young coach. But Toby Gerhart, who rushed for 205 yards in last year's game, is now a Minnesota Viking. Harbaugh isn't going to out-coach Kelly. Irish back in the friendly confines, smarting from a tough trip to East Lansing, get back on track against the Cardinal. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%.

Oct. 2: @Boston College. Back on the road. A tough game, but B.C. comes off a brutal contest against Virginia Tech. We beat 'em in '09, and this year we're better coached. So we beat 'em in 2010. But it's close. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%.

Oct. 9: Pittsburgh. Irish lost a tough one in Pittsburgh in '09. Panthers picked by many to win the Big East in '10. Coach Kelly and his Bearcats beat Pitt @ Pitt in a close one last year. Can he pull the same feat at home with better talent? Yes, he can. Barely. Maybe. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 55%.

Oct. 16: Western Michigan. I guess I appreciate them making the trip, but I have no idea how the Broncos got on the schedule. What a lousy home game for all the alumni who travel across the country to catch one game per season. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 95%.

Oct. 23: Navy (@ Meadowlands). I don't like the Irish in the Meadowlands. But here is where the coaching experience, the up-tempo practices, the emphasis on speed of play and fundamentals pays off. No more nail-biters against the middies. It won't be a blow-out, but it'll be over by early in the 4th quarter. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%.

Oct. 30: Tulsa. Another really unusual opponent, the Golden Hurricane come into Notre Dame Stadium off a bye week. 5-7 in 2009 against a weak schedule, Tulsa nonetheless can be a dangerous team. As long as we come to play we'll be fine. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%.

Nov. 6: -BYE-

Nov. 13: Utah. An excellent home game! And the OC Domer clan will be in the house. Utah is a highly regarded squad that will be looking to make a name for itself on national T.V. The Utes run a spread offense, which won't confuse many Irish defenders who see it every day in practice. Notre Dame has an extra week to prepare for this one, while the Utes are on the road after playing a tough game against TCU. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%.

Nov. 20: Army (@ Yankee Stadium). Really cool game to see if you can make it. Lot's of historical overtones for the old school football fan. A typically hard-nosed, scrappy military academy team, but Army lacks the talent to hang with the Irish. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 85%.

Nov. 27: @ USC. Thanksgiving weekend, our daughter is bringing a bunch of her Notre Dame friends home for this game. USC is getting a lot of love in 2010, despite the bitch-slap they got from the NCAA. Notre Dame only lost to USC by 7 in 2009. We're going to be better in 2010 than we were in 2009. Is USC really going to be better than last season? I'm not convinced. This is a statement game for Coach Kelly. His legacy will begin on the floor of the Coliseum. Much like Charlie Weis' first game against the unstoppable Trojans in 2005, this will be an instant classic. Only this time the good guys win. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%.

Conclusion: An 11-1 first season for Coach Kelly? Possible, but not likely. Remember Assumption #4, above. There will be growing pains. Using my confidence factors for the twelve games we compute a more reasonable expected win total:

.85 + .75 + .45 + .65 + .60 + .55 + .95 + .70 + .80 + .70 + .85 + .60 = 8.45 wins

So, if we use my estimation of the Irish chances of winning each of their twelve games, we get an expected win total between 8 and 9. I'd really love to see 10 wins. But if we win 8 or 9 and see real progress and growth in year one of the Kelly era, I could live with that. Especially if we beat USC and avoid any really awful Syracuse and Navy type losses.

What are your predictions for the 2010 Irish?

Good Luck Coach Kelly

Six days from now a coin will be tossed into the Indiana sky, a football will be kicked down the middle of a perfectly manicured field inside Notre Dame Stadium, the Irish faithful on the wooden benches and on their comfy sofas across America will be holding their collective breath, and finally the answers will be revealed. The answers to our questions, certainly. But that isn't what Notre Dame fans really want. What we really want is the answer to our prayers. From Iraq and Afghanistan to London, Dublin, Haiti, Peru, Tokyo and Sydney; from Boston to Orange County and from Pasquerilla East to Carroll Hall, the Loyal Sons and Daughters of Notre Dame have been praying for the next Knute Rockne to lift us out of the purgatory of football mediocrity and restore the Fighting Irish to greatness.

Will Brian Kelly be the answer to all those prayers?

Will Coach Kelly dramatically succeed where Davie, Willingham, and Weis so spectacularly failed?

I eagerly embraced Boob and Ty and Charlie. I bought into the idea that Davie was a defensive genius and that he would bring enough speedy ath-a-letes from Texas into the program to maintain what Lou Holtz had built. I was totally sold that Ty Willingham was a young coaching phenom and molder of men who, as a black man himself, would be able to recruit to Notre Dame the talented players from the South who are often reluctant to attend a very white Catholic school in the wintry Midwest. I totally believed that Notre Dame alumnus Weis, with his NFL pedigree and Super Bowl bling, would stock the program with future NFL players and would win titles with his decided schematic advantage.

Yeah, well, not so much.

But am I bitter? Have I become a complete cynic? Truth be told the years spent wandering in the desert with Davie/Willingham/Weis have left a little bit of a bad taste in my mouth. My heart has been broken enough times that it honestly is hard to close my eyes and jump back in with both feet and my rose-colored glasses. I'll admit to dark moments of doubt. Am I living the impossible dream? Has Big Time College Football gotten to the point where a program that genuinely cares about giving its players a quality education can't compete on an elite level? Is the true student-athlete as endangered as the Dodo bird?

But it's nothing a little winning won't cure.

Is Brian Kelly "The Guy"? Here is what we know:

• Coach Kelly has twenty years of experience as a college head coach.
  
• He won two NCAA Division II Championships at Grand Valley State.
  
• He coached the Central Michigan Chippewas to a MAC title.
  
• He took the Cincinnati Bearcats to two straight BCS Bowl games.
  
• I repeat - he took Cincinnati to back-to-back BCS Bowl games.
• Coach Kelly grew up the Catholic son of a Boston politician and a huge Notre Dame fan.
• He talks a good game.

And that, for now is all we REALLY know. But it tells us a lot. It tells us that Coach was able to lift three different programs to a very high level. That's a Division II program, A MAC team, and a Big East team. That's three different schools and three different groups of players. Somehow, he was able to reach each of those teams and pull greatness from them.

He isn't a one-hit wonder, but he isn't necessarily a miracle worker either. When Kelly took over the head job at Grand Valley State in 1991, the Lakers were already a powerhouse, having gone 11-1 and 10-2 in 1989 and 1990. Under Coach Kelly GVS didn't crack the 10-win plateau again until 2001, Kelly's 11th season as head coach. But in 2001, '02, and '03 his team went 13-1, 14-0 (Div. II Champs) and 14-1 (Div. II Champs). Clearly, the years at Grand Valley State were the formative years for Brian Kelly as a head coach. He learned a lot of lessons, honed his craft, and built his "system." Whereas Bob Davie and Charlie Weis had to learn all the hard lessons of head-coaching while on the job at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly had thirteen seasons at GVS to figure it out.

At Central Michigan, Coach Kelly took over a program that had won 2, 3, 4, and 3 games in the four seasons prior to his arrival. A really struggling program. Kelly turned the program around, but it wasn't overnight. The Chips went 4-7 in 2004, just one win better than 2003. They went 6-5 in 2005, two games better than '04. And in 2006 they were 9-4 and won the MAC (although Kelly did not coach the Motor City Bowl as he had moved on to the Cincy job). But look at the progression: 1-game better in year one, 2 more games better in year two than in year one, and 3 more games better in year three than in year two. That is dramatic, accelerating improvement.

Kelly took over an improving Cincinnati Bearcats team from Mark Dantonio, who left Cincy to take the job at Michigan State. The 'Cats were 7-5 in 2006. In Coach Kelly's first full year there (he had coached the 'Cats to a win the International Bowl to end the '06 season), Cincinnati went 10-3 with a win in the Papa John's Bowl. That's a 3-game improvement in year one. The Bearcats went 11-3 and 12-1 in 2008 and 2009, winning the Big East, playing in a BCS Bowl, and finishing the season ranked in the Top 20 both years.

Looking at Kelly's history on the brink of his first season at Our Lady's University, one has to wonder: Is the task he faces at Notre Dame more like his challenge at Central Michigan? Or is it closer to what he inherited at Cincinnati? The Chippewas had been a bad football team for a number of years when Kelly got there, and it took a couple of years to really turn it around. The Bearcats, on the other hand, were an improving team under Dantonio and Kelly just jumped on the accelerator and was able to elicit dramatic improvement in year one.

While I am leery of leading with my heart, I think Coach Kelly faces more of a Cincy situation at Notre Dame than a CMU situation. While the team clearly under-performed in the Weis era, Charlie did do a pretty good job as a recruiter. There is talent in the program, and it just needs to be developed and coached. For all his woes, Charlie Weis took a team that was 6-4 in 2004 under Ty Willingham and went 9-3 in 2005. Charlie was on pace to leave a tremendous legacy at Notre Dame until he was hammered in 2007 by the voids in the roster left him by Ty Willingham. That isn't going to happen to Kelly. The cupboard in not bare in the wake of Weis' departure.

Although 2009 was bitterly disappointing, the 6-6 Irish lost six games by a combined total of 28 points. They lost by four points to Michigan in the Big House in a game they clearly should have won. They only lost to USC by a touchdown. And although Clausen and Golden Tate are gone from that team, almost everybody else returns. Dayne Crist was a highly touted quarterback recruit coming out of high school who many thought was better than Jimmy Clausen. Michael Floyd was every bit as good as Tate when healthy, and Theo Riddick and TJ Jones are play makers.

Can Coach Kelly take these players and close the gap? Can he figure out how to win the close games and how to finish strong in November?

Much has been written about the tempo, the speed, of football practices under Kelly. There is little doubt that he is maximizing the amount of work that can be squeezed from every minute of practice. And it certainly sounds like he is paying attention to the details, as he demands from his players. In the final practices of fall camp last week, the Irish were spending time on Coach Kelly's list of 49 unusual game scenarios, which he said has grown over the years from just 16 scenarios when he started at Grand Valley State. The scenarios run the gamut from how to call a timeout before a two-point conversion attempt, to the turtle punt, to taking a safety on purpose. I can't be the only one who remembers Jarious Jackson spraining a knee while taking an intentional safety against LSU in 1998, thus knocking him out of action for the USC game (a 10-0 debacle in the Coliseum).

I don't get to watch practices. There aren't any meaningful videos available of what the team is doing on the field. All we think we know about how the players are progressing comes straight from the coach's mouth. Coach Kelly says the team is working hard, and preparing well, and is close to being ready for Purdue. But with the exception of Lou Holtz, that's what head coaches always say.

One thing we do know is that the competition for a starting spot on this team is intense. Nobody can take a starting slot for granted. Or even a back-up spot. There is no seniority system, no undue loyalty to the upperclassmen. Talent will play. Fifth-year senior and Notre Dame law student Chris Stewart is being pressed hard by sophomore Chris Watt at left guard. Dan Wenger and Braxston Cave are neck & neck at center. Cierre Wood has blown past Jonas Gray and Robert Hughes at running back and is breathing down Armando Allen's neck. Walk-on Nate Montana appears to be #2 at QB, ahead of heralded recruits like Andrew Hendrix. TJ Jones is pushing Duval Kamara hard at the third WR position (and will pass him in my estimation). There is lots of competition at linebacker, with the vocal and talented Brian Smith on the outside looking in as he has been surpassed (for now) by Kerry Neal and Darius Fleming.

So we have some talented players working very hard and competing intensely for playing time. And we have a Head Coach who has a proven record of winning at the college level. It would seem that the ingredients for success should be in place. But now, with all eyes on Notre Dame Stadium in six days, it only remains to play the games.

Good Luck Coach Kelly.

Go Irish! Beat the Boilermakers!

Dusting Off the Crystal Ball

Happy August to all of you! It's been a little slow around here at OC Domer, but I've been busy with my day job and just couldn't bring myself to write yet another story about not-very-bright students getting arrested by not-very-bright Indiana law enforcement officials for underage drinking at an off-campus party. My thoughts on the situation haven't changed a bit since my last rant on the topic in September of 2008.

The only thing I would add is this: Coach Kelly, you obviously still have a lot of work to do to to in teaching your players the right way to conduct themselves. And yes, I do hold the football team, who are attending the University on full scholarship, to a higher standard than I do the rest of the student body. To me, this incident also shows a lack of leadership on the team. Were there no upper-class players there who were willing to tell the underage players that they needed to put down the alcohol and drink the un-spiked punch instead? A lot of work to do.

But back to the crystal ball. I am getting ready to begin the arduous process of writing the OC Domer Pre-Season Spectacular post for 2010. In doing so, I went back and dusted off my pre-season predictions for the past several seasons (since the inception of the blog), and the results were so hilarious that I had to share them with you. The point of this exercise is to hopefully give you a good laugh, and to also serve as a slap across the face to me that will hopefully knock off my rose-colored glasses before I make any predictions for 2010.

2007 Predictions:

Final Results: With young but talented players all over the field, and with new defensive coordinator Corwin Brown, the Irish basically win the games they won and lose the games they lost in 2006 (UCLA being the exception). But we don't get blown out by anyone. We aren't a Top 5 program yet, but at 10-3 overall, we end up just outside the Top 10 in the final polls of the season. Entering 2008 we are a Top 10 team fighting to become an elite Top 5 program.

Conclusion. So, this is how I see the season playing out. Is it a prediction? Not really. It's just a thorough explanation of where I see the program and what I think I'm going to see. Might Charlie's Fighting Irish exceed my expectations? They could. The offensive line could be dominant, the QB play spectacular, the young receivers amazing. The front seven could be energetic AND stout. We could beat Michigan and UCLA, we might even surprise everyone with an improbable win over the Trojans. On the other hand, the O-line might not be what we need it to be. The young QBs and receivers might sputter. The front seven might give up too many yards in the running game. If that happens, we could lose to Georgia Tech, Penn State, MSU and BC. It could be a disaster. But, as one sage once said "That's why they play the games."

2007 Actual: 3 wins against 9 losses. Blown out by Georgia Tech (33-3), Penn State (31-10), Michigan (38-0), USC (38-0), Air Force (41-24). A triple-OT loss to Navy. The only wins against UCLA, Duke, and Stanford. A total, unmitigated disaster.


2008 Predictions:

Final Thoughts. Do I really think Notre Dame will finish the 2008 season 11-1? No. While I sincerely believe the Irish could, or even should, win each of their first 11 games, I also expect that a team as young as the Irish will have some untimely penalties and turnovers, or just come out flat, and let a couple of games get away from them. Counting the likely loss to USC, I expect nine wins, give or take one. Of course, a lot has to go right for nine wins to happen. But after last year I figure the Irish are due a little luck.

2008 Actual: 6 wins against 6 losses in the regular season, plus a nice win the the Hawaii Bowl to end our bowl game losing streak. This team was all over the map. Strong wins over Michigan, Purdue, Washington. Awful losses to North Carolina, Boston College, Syracuse. Only an impressive bowl win over Hawaii saved Charlie Weis' job.

2009 Predictions:

I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.

2009 Actual: 6 wins and 6 losses, including four losses in a row to end the season against Navy, Pitt, U-Conn, and Stanford. Adios Charlie.

Conclusion: I cannot be trusted to evaluate the fortunes of the Notre Dame football team. For 2007, 2008, and 2009 I predicted the team would win 9, 9, and 9 regular season games, which translated into 3, 6, and 6 actual regular season wins on the field. Not very impressive. But I'll give it a go anyway later in the month. Don't say you weren't warned!

As an aside, I challenge all my Irish blogging brethren to post their past prediction performance along with their predictions for 2010, so we can have total transparency, just like the Obama administration.

Madness!

March Madness begins (for real) tomorrow, so time is running out if you haven't filled out your brackets yet. As if anyone in the world could possibly care, I've finally filled mine out and you can see it (if you want), HERE. (After the games begin on Thursday).

Highlights of my picks in this year's Tourney:

• Notre Dame beats Old Dominion, but loses to a Baylor Bears team that makes a nice run all the way into the Final Four where they lose to West Virginia.
  
• #1 seed Duke gets taken out by Texas A&M (game being played in Houston) and thus failing to advance beyond the Sweet Sixteen.
  
• Baylor beating #2 seed Villanova in the other South Region semi-final (in Houston) to advance to the Elite Eight match-up versus Texas A&M.
• #1 seed Kentucky losing to #4 seed Wisconsin in their Sweet Sixteen match-up.
  

My Elite Eight:

1. Kansas
2. Ohio State
3. Syracuse
4. Kansas State
5. Wisconsin
6. West Virginia
7. Texas A&M
8. Baylor

The Final Four:

1. Kansas
2. Syracuse
3. West Virginia
4. Baylor

I have Kansas defeating West Virgina in the final game to win the National Championship.

Quick Hits, Pearl Harbor Edition

Things have been busy at OC Domer HQ and I just haven't been able to write all the posts I have wanted to write lately. So here are my thoughts on recent developments in condensed Readers Digest format:

1. Coaching Search. Well, what do you know? Brian Kelly will be meeting with Jack Swarbrick on Tuesday to discuss ... well, you know. All as foretold by OC Domer.

2. Pete Carroll's Girlfriend. Do I really care if Pete "Always Compete" Carroll is (or was) living with a USC grad student in Malibu? Hell yes I care. I'm not particularly proud of it, but I do care. I'm sure the Los Angeles media is all over this story and we'll get all the juicy details real soon. With pictures. (Won't they?) I want to see if Pete is hitting a higher class of "mistress" than Tiger Woods is. But you will note that in his profuse apologies about allowing an off-the-record comment to get into print that Charlie never quite says that the underlying facts about Pete and the grad student aren't true. Hmmm. Seems very unlike Charlie to let something like that slip without any basis.

3. Tiger Woods' Mistresses. Latest count is up to nine. At what point do we get real and stop calling all these tramps "mistresses"? And don't you love how all these "hostesses" are shocked and hurt by Tiger's infidelity? "I thought I was the only hooker gold digger in his life." Hilarious. What's not hilarious is that Tiger has hurt his wife Elin, who deserved better from him. I hope a few hundred million dollars will ease her pain.

4. Jimmy & Golden. Going pro. Not a surprise. I would love to see them play at Notre Dame for another year, but they'd be crazy to. Good luck to both guys as they move the show to Sundays. I hope they each make a big pile of cash and have long, glorious NFL careers. Thanks to both of them for giving all of us everything they had for three years. I hope they find the time somewhere down the road to complete their degrees and graduate from ND.

5. Charlie to Da Bears? Rumors have the Chicago Bears as a potential landing spot for Coach Weis next season, likely as offensive coordinator. Makes great sense. I would expect that CW will try to find a position as close to South Bend as possible to remain close to the Hannah & Friends facility that means so much to him.

6. Still Recruiting. Thanks to Coach Weis and all his assistants for being completely classy and professional and working to keep all the 2010 verbal commits in the fold.

7. Bowling. I agree with the decision not to accept any bowl invitations this year. Notre Dame has a long history of declining bowl invitations. During decades when we were THE elite program in the country we won National Championships without bowl games. We have frequently declined to go bowling when the team had a sub-par season or when the invitation wasn't from a prestigious bowl. There is no reason to humiliate ourselves by playing a bowl game in Detroit against some MAC opponent. In the current context there is no real upside. More weeks practicing the system of the just-fired coach? And who is calling the plays? And how motivated are our soon-to-be millionaire offensive leaders? And what would a win get us? Have some pride and play in a bowl again when you've actually earned it and when the game would mean something.

8. OC Domer Owns Subway Domer's 2009 Pick 'em Contest. Subway Domer once again hosted a weekly Pick 'em contest for this season. Players had to pick winners for about a dozen college games each week, straight up. Bonus points for correctly picking upsets. More bonus points for picking upsets in Top 25 games. After a very slow start to the season I went on a very nice run and finished 2009 as co-champion. Final results are here. My team is "Holy Cross." Thanks to Subway for putting on the contest again this season. I really do enjoy putting my picks together each week. It makes Saturdays more interesting without costing me a wad of cash.

Narrowing the List

I recently wrote about the "Long List" of potential successors to Coach Weis at Notre Dame. My stated criteria in assembling the Long List of more than 21 names were:

1. Track record as a successful head coach at the Division I college level or the NFL. (Assistants need not apply).
2. Ability to recruit. Ideally a proven recruiter, but may have to make judgment call on the recruiting potential of NFL candidates.
3. Person of integrity and class. (This rules out Urban Meyer and Nick Saban).
4. Committed to making sure Notre Dame student athletes go to class, graduate on time, and represent the University with class. (Real students, no thugs).

Yesterday the University officially announced the firing of Head Football Coach Charlie Weis, and Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick spoke for a few minutes with the media about his decision to "take our football program in a different direction" and he gave us some clues about where the search for a new coach might lead.

Clearly, from listening to Swarbrick and reading the full transcript of the press conference, there is a very strong preference for candidates "who have demonstrated an ability to build and sustain a Division I college football program." Swarbrick used that phrase twice in his remarks yesterday. "Building and sustaining." He also indicated that, while it wouldn't necessarily be a limiting factor, he does feel that we "need to play good defense." So I won't leave anyone off the list depending upon whether they are a defensive or an offensive minded coach, but just be aware that at the and of the day that might be the tie-breaker.

Should we believe what jack Swarbrick is telling us? Is he trying to throw us off the scent while he brings in another NFL coach? I don't think so. The template for success at Notre Dame has been fairly simple. When we have hired proven college head coaches we have had great success. When we have gone off that recipe, we have met disaster. So I think we can take Jack at his word. Having just dismissed a very good NFL coach, it would be a very risky move for Swarbrick to bring in another NFL guy and expect a better result. Much safer for him to go with what has worked well in the past.

So, taking Jack at his word, we can start whittling the Long List down, removing coaches who have not demonstrated the ability to build and sustain a Division I college football program. To me the word "build" means a coach who has taken a program from whatever level it was on when he was hired and then elevated the program to another level. The word "build" means, to me, that we don't necessarily want a coach who took over as the caretaker of a program that was already doing really well and simply maintained it. The word "sustained" means we don't want a one-year wonder. We want someone who built a program up to a high level and then kept it there for some time.

Applying these standards to the Long List and being a little flexible with the definitions of "build" and "sustain", I get the following names:

• Mike Belotti (Long-time University of Oregon head coach, now the UO Athletic Director)
• Pat Hill (Long-time and present head coach of Fresno State University)
• Greg Schiano (Head coach at Rutgers University)
• Skip Holtz (Head coach at East Carolina, former head coach at Connecticut)
• Brian Kelly (Head coach University of Cincinnati, former head coach at Grand Valley State and Central Michigan)
• Jim Harbaugh (Head coach at Stanford, former head coach at University of San Diego. Has beaten USC two of last three years)(Might be too short-lived to meet "sustain" requirement)
• Mike Riley (Head coach at Oregon State, former head coach of the San Diego Chargers. Perfect 5-0 record in bowl games. Beat USC in 2006 and 2008)(Nobody is talking about him, but he is a great coach)
• Pat Fitzgerald (Head coach at Northwestern)(Pretty young still. Might not meet "sustain" requirement yet).
• Randy Edsall (Head coach at University of Connecticut)
• Chris Petersen (Head coach at Boise State)(Didn't really "build" the program. Took over a really good team from Dan Hawkins).
• Gary Patterson (Head coach at TCU)
• Kyle Whittingham (Head coach at Utah)(Did not really "build" the program. Took it over from urban Meyer).
• Kirk Ferentz (Head coach at Iowa, former head coach at Maine)
• Bob Stoops (Head coach at Oklahoma. Won one National championship and 6 Big XII titles. Not sure if he is really interested as reported, or if he is just angling for a raise from OU)(I have some reservations about Stoops' integrity and the quality of player he recruits).
• Butch Davis (Head coach at North Carolina, former head coach at Miami and Cleveland Browns. Personally, I'd have difficulty accepting a former Miami coach at ND)(Did not "build" at Miami, but has "built" at UNC).
  
• Tommy Tuberville (Former head coach at Ole Miss and Auburn)

Can you think of anyone else? Add them in the comments below and if they fit the criteria I'll put them on the list. I am a little curious about the Division I-AA option, a la Coach Jim Tressel at Ohio State. I'm not sure Swarbrick would take the risk of bringing in a Div I-AA coach, but if you know of any really strong candidates from that level I'd love to hear about them. Jack said he was looking for Division I experience, but he didn't specify Division I-A only.

Eliminating the guys listed above who I think may be a little short on either the "build" or "sustain" criteria, my personal favorites from the shorter list are, in approximate order of preference:

• Brian Kelly
• Kirk Ferentz
  
• Mike Riley
• Mike Belotti
• Randy Edsall
• Butch Davis
• Tommy Tuberville

I think any of these guys would be outstanding hires. Who do you like?

Heard it through the grapevine: Brian Kelly

Charlie Weis may not know who Notre Dame's football coach is going to be next season, but it seems that many others "in the know" at the University understand that it will be Brian Kelly, currently head coach at the University of Cincinnati. If my contacts at Notre Dame are to be believed (and I do believe them), it's all but a done deal at this point, with no announcements coming until the end of the football season for the Irish and the Bearcats.

Take the rumor for what it is worth. I am sorry I can't be more specific with my sourcing. But until I see factual news reports proving otherwise, I'll be sleeping very well at night knowing that Coach Kelly will be leading the Irish next season.

Irish Blogger Gathering: Here Come the 2009 Fighting Irish!

We're going to try to keep Subway Domer's love child alive for a second season. Yes, the Irish Blogger Gathering is back for 2009. The idea is for our intrepid group of Notre Dame football bloggers to respond each week during the season to a set of questions posed to the group. The blogger asking the questions rotates, and the host for Nevada week is the Domer Law Blog. You can head over there to read Domer Law's IBG post, and in the comments you will find the responses written by all the bloggers participating in the Gathering this week. And so, without further ado:

1. What song or video do you feel typifies this year's Notre Dame team heading into the season? Embed a youtube or other similar video if possible.

The very first thought that popped into my head was "We're Not Gonna Take It" by Twisted Sister. This has to be the attitude of the Notre Dame coaches and players as they hit the field this year. They have to stand up and show the whole world that they aren't going to take being pushed around and beaten down any more. We need to see some attitude and some defiance from the '09 Irish.




2. Post a picture that to you portrays the attitude of this year's team and discuss.

As I've been writing all pre-season, we won't know anything about this team until Saturday. Talk and speculation is useless - this team needs to show up on game day and take care of business. The team that runs out into Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday afternoon needs to have the attitude of the incredible Hulk. They needs to be big, fast, strong, nasty, and not worried about breaking things or hurting anyone's feelings. They need to be merciless and supremely confident. They need to crush the Nevada Wolf Pack like a bug. Coach Weis needs to set the example by not taking his foot off the gas. Notre Dame lost three games last year because they had comfortable leads that they thought were safe and they tried to nurse those leads to the end of the 4th quarter. There can be no comfortable leads at half-time. Maybe if you're up by 28 with 5:00 to go you can nurse the clock. But this team needs to bring a little Hulk to Notre Dame Stadium. Is it a coincidence that the Hulk wears green? I think not.




3. What do you perceive as the team's biggest weakness heading into the season?

Toughness. Coach Weis has brought into the program some very talented athletes, and he has largely fixed Notre Dame's perennial problem - Team Speed. Now we need to see some toughness; some of the nasty that Charlie promised when he showed up in South Bend. The O-line needs to be tough. Armando Allen needs to run tough, not fall over on contact. The D-line needs to be tough against the run. The linebackers need to take on blockers and win the battles at the point of attack and stuff the run at the line of scrimmage without safety help.

4. With the exception of the 1990s, Notre Dame has won a National Championship in every decade since the 1920s. What are the chances (a) that Notre Dame wins a championship this year, and (b) if not this year, when do you predict the next championship for the Irish?

The odds makers have Notre Dame's odds of winning a National Championship at 25-1. In order to win the championship, the Irish have three major hurdles to clear. First, they have to beat USC. I put the chances of that at 40%. Second, they have to win the other eleven games on their regular season schedule. I put the chances of that at most at 30%. Then they would have to win the BCS Championship Game against Florida or some other very worthy opponent. If this team has played well enough to be 12-0 and beat USC and get voted into the Title game, I'll go ahead and give them a 50% chance of winning that game. A little math (4/10 x 3/10 x 1/2) gets you a 6% chance of Notre Dame winning a National Championship, which is only slightly better than the Vegas odds. That may sound very pessimistic, but to put it in perspective the chances of winning just five games in a row if the chances of winning each individual game is 50% is 3.125%. The chances of winning twelve games in a row if each game is a 50-50 proposition is 0.024%. (That's a 1 in 4096 chance).

Bottom line: The team has to play consistently at the top of its game for a whole season, and get some breaks along the way. But really, 6% is a decent chance in the big scheme of things.

If they don't win it all this season, I think they'll have an even better chance next year, as nearly every player of import will return in 2010.

5. Nevada runs the Pistol offense, Navy the Triple Option, and Michigan the Spread Option. Which offensive scheme do you think is the most difficult to prepare for, and why?

Okay, I suppose I could PRETEND that I understand the nuances of each of these offenses and the unique challenges they pose to a defensive coordinator. But that would be silly. The toughest offense to prepare for is the one featuring the most talented athletes with the most experience in the offense. Given Michigan's woes and Navy's rebuilding this year, you'd have to say that Nevada, with a very experienced starting QB in a system he knows well will be the most difficult to prepare for.

6. Is Colin Capaernick the best quarterback we'll see this year? If not, who is?

He probably is the best quarterback as of today. But USC's true freshman Matt Barkley will have much more talent around him, and will have five games under his belt (including on the road at Ohio State and Cal) when he arrives in South Bend. Thus, Barkley will likely pose a bigger challenge to defend than Capaernick.


7. Prediction time. We have to get on the record before the season kicks off. Give me:

(1) Overall prediction for wins/losses.

I'm calling for a 10-2 regular season. The probably lose to USC in a game that is much more competitive than the last three years, and they will lose one game that they should win, rather than losing three games they should have won in 2008. More details on my season forecast can be found at this link.

(2) Projected bowl game and result.

I expect Notre Dame to play in and win a BCS Bowl Game, albeit not the BCS Championship game.

(3) Predicted final ranking.

The bowl win will lead to a #5 ranking in the final polls, behind the two teams in the BCS Championship game and the winners of the other two BCS bowl games.

(4) Best player on the team.

I hope there will be a lot of competition for this honor, but in order for the team to reach it's goals the best player needs to be Jimmy Clausen.

(5) Heisman trophy winner.

If it isn't Clausen, I'm pulling for Colt McCoy.

(6) National Champion.

If not the Irish, I like Texas.

(7) Prediction for Nevada game, including score.

Notre Dame 38, Nevada 20

Notre Dame Shaking Down the Thunder in 2009

Put up or shut up. That seems to be the consensus among the Irish faithful and the college football cognoscenti regarding Notre Dame's 2009 football season. The Irish return almost the entire offense from a year ago, led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a junior heading into his third year as a starting QB who completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards last year with a 25/17 TD/INT ratio. Clausen will be playing behind an offensive line that has already amassed 100 career starts between them, which puts them among the most experienced offensive lines in the country. That line experience should translate into time to throw the ball for Clausen, and a new offensive line coach, Frank Verducci, will hopefully mean improved O-line play in the running game.

If Clausen does have time to throw, and he should, that means trouble for opposing secondaries. With Golden Tate and 2008 OC Domer Player of the Year Michael Floyd at wide receiver and Kyle Rudolph at tight end, Notre Dame has among the best receiving corps in the nation. All three players can stretch the field (they average 18.6, 15.0, and 11.7 yards per catch, respectively); none can be effectively covered by a single defender. And you can't double-cover all of them. If these three stay healthy, Clausen and the Irish offense should put up Brady Quinn-esque numbers in 2009. Tate, Floyd and Rudolph are complemented most notably by junior Duval Kamara (who has terrific size but needs to have a bounce-back year) and freshman Shaquelle Evans who has looked impressive in camp and is really pushing for early playing time.

The ability to stretch the field with the passing game should really benefit the Irish running game, led by 2008 leading rusher Armando Allen (134 carries for 585 yards; 50 receptions for 355 yds), who has been announced as the clear starter by Coach Weis. Allen will be accompanied in the backfield by James Aldridge (91 carries for 357 yds in '08), now the starter at fullback. Robert Hughes (112 carries for 382 yds in '08) will be first to spell Allen, but sophomore Jonas Gray and exciting freshman Cierre Wood will both see carries in 2009. The expectations with the running game are that the vertical threat of the passing game prevent defenses from stacking 8 defenders at the line of scrimmage, thus giving the running backs some room to work. Key will be whether the new offensive line coach can solve the short-yardage woes that have plagued Charlie Weis' offense since he arrived in South Bend. If these experienced backs, running behind an experienced group of linemen, can finally be counted on to reliably move the sticks in short yardage situations, thus sustaining drives and keeping our defense fresh, Notre Dame fans should be treated to a very enjoyable year.

In the off-season Charlie Weis shuffled the duties of his coaching staff a bit (he now has an associate head coach and two assistant head coaches), but the most significant result is that Jon Tenuta is now the defensive coordinator. Most expect that this will therefore be an aggressive, attacking defense that attempts to dictate the tempo of the game to opposing offenses and keep opponents back on their heels. In some respects the approach can be high risk - high reward, as the frequent blitzes Tenuta employs leaves defensive backs working in single coverage. Fortunately, the Irish secondary looks to be top-notch this year and should be more than capable of handling the assignment. The loss of safety David Bruton to the Denver Broncos will certainly be felt, but safeties Kyle McCarthy (110 tackles in 2008, most ever by an Irish defensive back) and Harrison Smith (57 tackles in '08 was 4th on the team) should fill in ably. Notre Dame is deep at the corners, led by Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton. If teams are going to move the ball on Notre Dame, it will not be through the air.

As in previous seasons, the concern with the Irish defense is up front. Once again, D-line is considered to be talented and scrappy, but probably a bit undersized. Nose Tackle Ian Williams weighs in just north of 300 lbs, but the other projected starting defensive tackle, the very disruptive Ethan Johnson, weighs just 275 lbs. The defensive ends, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal weigh in at 265 and 246 lbs. These players are all well suited to Jon Tenuta's aggressive defensive system, but it remains to be seen how stout they can be against teams that are content to run the ball straight at you. The defensive front seven have to show the ability to take on blockers heads-up and stuff a hole. The past two seasons have seen too many defenders trying to run around blocks, leaving big seams for opposing ball carriers to run through until a defensive back came up to make a tackle.

The top tackler among defensive linemen last season was the departed Pat Kuntz, whose 42 was 6th best on the team. The next D-lineman in tackles was nose tackle Ian Williams with 40 (8th best in '08). Digest that for a minute. Notre Dame's top five tacklers in 2008 did not include a defensive lineman. You might argue that it's the scheme, that the D-line is supposed to occupy blockers and let the linebackers run to the ball. I'd buy that, if the stats backed it up. But the top two tacklers for ND last season weren't linebackers. They were safeties. And it wasn't close. Kyle McCarthy led all Irish defenders with 110, David Bruton was 2nd with 97. Linebacker Maurice Crum was a distant third with just 65 tackles. Notre Dame's front seven needs to be much more effective this year stopping the run, so that the defensive backfield can worry less about run support and concentrate instead on defending the pass.

While the loss of Maurice Crum's leadership in the middle of the defense will be felt, the fact is that the guys replacing Crum are much more talented. Super-recruit Manti Te'o will get on the field early, likely playing alongside junior Brian Smith and sophomore Darius Fleming, although the competition for starting linebacker jobs is intense this season, and that's a good thing. Whoever plays, the linebackers have to step up this year in both stopping the run without DB help and in getting home and sacking opposing quarterbacks on Coach Tentuta's blitzes.

On special teams, freshman Nick Tausch came into camp and took control of the kicker position, winning both the kick-off job and the place-kicking job. I am very anxious to see the young man kick. Lack of a consistent place-kicker has plagued the Irish for two seasons, and the inability to kick the ball into the end zone for touchbacks has been frustrating. If Nick Tausch can bring Notre Dame's not-so-special teams up from "awful" to "average" it will be a big boost to Irish fortunes in 2009. Eric Maust remains the ND punter.

So how do I see this team shaping up in 2009? As I wrote in an earlier post:

With respect to Notre Dame football, there just isn't much uncertainty this year, other than the ultimate uncertainty of how many wins the Irish will put in the books. [...] For 2009, there just aren't many unknowns. The players in 2009 are almost without exception the same guys we watched lose at home to Syracuse and then win impressively in Hawaii. Same quarterback, same running backs, same linemen, same receivers. Same defensive players, with the exception of an opening at linebacker and an opening at safety.

So, given that we're going to see what is essentially the same group of players, each of them a year older, a year more mature (physically and emotionally), a year more experienced, what can we realistically expect?

The 2008 Fighting Irish posted a 6-win, 6-loss regular season and had a dominating performance in winning the Hawaii Bowl 49-21. That's a 7-6 overall record. Digging just a little deeper, however, one quickly learns that the 2008 squad, from a talent perspective, should have posted a 9-3 regular season record. The losses to Michigan State (argh), Boston College and USC were never really in doubt. But ND blew double digit leads against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. A team with a little more experience, and a little more maturity, doesn't lose those games in 2008. So while they fully earned their 6-6 mark, from a talent and ability standpoint the Irish were arguably playing at the level of a 9-3 squad.

Is it unreasonable to expect the 2009 Fighting Irish, with the added maturity and experience, to play at least at that 9-3 level this season? I do not think that's unreasonable at all. And that's before you even begin to look at the 2009 schedule.

Let's go ahead and look at that schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).


Sept. 5: Nevada. The danger in this game is that the Irish fail to take this good team from the wacky WAC seriously enough while looking ahead to the Michigan game. In 2008 the Wolf Pack's offense was potent and balanced, led by QB Colin Kaepernick who is a true dual threat with 1,100 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing last season. 2009 will be his third season as a starting QB. The Irish defense's speed and athleticism should be able to slow Kaepernick enough to allow Jimmy Clausen and the ND offense to win the game by scoring at will against a poor Nevada defense whose main weakness is in the secondary. Key to the game will be the Irish defense getting off the field on 3rd Down and the Notre Dame offense controlling the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. (Isn't that always the key?). The point is, Nevada is dangerous and if you don't take care of business they are good enough to ruin your entire season in Week 1. I will be watching this game closely to see if the 2009 Irish dominate a less talented team like they should, rather than playing down to the level of the opponent and keeping the game "interesting" far longer than they should (see: 2008 season opener against San Diego State). Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%

Sept. 12: @Michigan. It was a party in Notre Dame Stadium as the Fighting Irish blew out the Wolverines in what must have been a cathartic 35-17 victory following the travesty that was 2007. While Notre Dame looked impressive that day, they were helped by 6 UM turnovers and actually had some problems slowing down the Wolverine running game in the person of Sam McGuffie. I expect UM to cut down on the turnovers and put up a better fight in the Big House, but they are still in a serious re-building mode and are expected to start a freshman at quarterback. Add to their already substantial problems the exploding controversy about the Wolverines and Dick Rod being a bunch of cheaters and I expect UM to be distracted and confused enough for the Irish to get a nice road win in a physical game. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Sept. 19: Sparty. I hate those guys. Coach Weis is 1-3 against Michigan State which, to coin a phrase, is not good enough. In 2007 MSU beat ND by 17 pts. In 2008 the margin was 16 pts. This is not progress. Notre Dame's problems against Sparty have been in the trenches. MSU has been more physical than the Irish on both sides of the ball and that has told the tale. ND has been unable to run the ball with any success, and has had difficulty contending with the Spartan power rushing attack. This game will be an important test against a very good team. Will the experienced Irish O-line finally be able to assert itself in the running game? Will the Irish front seven on defense be able to man up and compete with MSU's power game? MSU will be a very good team and probably the second toughest game on the Irish schedule. But Sparty will badly miss the leadership of talented QB Brian Hoyer and the production of RB Javon Ringer. Irish win a battle at home. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%

Sept. 26: @Purdue. Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 last season. Purdue's top three rushers, top two passers, and top two receivers from that team are gone, to be replaced by untested players led a by a first year head coach. The defense does return a lot of experience, and talent, but Purdue is going to have a tough year. The Irish defense should force some turnovers and lead Notre Dame to a convincing win in West Lafayette. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%






Oct. 3: Washington. The once proud Huskies were winless in 2008 and own a 14-game losing streak. But they got rid of Coach Tyrone Willingham and brought in former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to be the new head coach. No doubt they will eventually get better, but the Irish crushed UW last year 33-7 in Seattle, and one would have to expect a similar result when the Huskies visit Notre Dame Stadium in '09. Sarkisian will have the team playing with more heart and pride, no doubt, but even with touted QB Jake Locker healthy again, Notre Dame fans know all too well how hard it can be to overcome a Ty Willingham-created talent deficiency. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%

Oct. 10: -Bye-. Great spot for the bye week. Five games played and USC next up on the schedule. Gives the coaches and players a chance to re-group, get healthy, and take some time to prepare for the Trojans.

Oct. 17: USC. Toughest game on the schedule, again. It's great to get USC in Notre Dame Stadium. Unfortunately the Trojans are coming off a bye week as well. But they may well need it, having already played Ohio State and Cal, both on the road. A third tough road trip this early in the season could have the boys of Troy feeling a little ragged. Of course, USC is loaded, particularly at running back and receiver. But they just announced that true freshman Matt Barkley will be the starter at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. Recalling last year's painful game in the Coliseum, the Notre Dame defense actually played pretty respectably against the Mark Sanchez led Trojan offense. But the complete inability of the Irish to move the ball meant the defense was on the field all night, usually with their backs against the wall. Given the loss of so many 2008 Trojan defensive players, the Irish offense should fare better in 2009 (It really hurt that Michael Floyd was injured and unable to play against USC in '08). Likewise, the Irish defense should have more success this year playing against a true freshman at QB. I still can't predict an Irish victory, given that the gap between the two programs is too wide to close in the space of one season. Two things can really help Irish chances in this game. First, the students MUST go to the game. October 17 falls on the first weekend of Fall break, and it would be tough to win the game if the students go home for break and leave empty seats in the stadium. The team will be pumped up if everyone stays for the game and gets LOUD. Second, pray for snow. Or at least a really miserable cold, rainy day. Those Southern California kids HATE the cold. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 40% (i.e., 40% chance of Irish win)

Oct. 24: Boston College. My irritation at losing to Boston College (6 straight) is probably second only to my irritation at losing to Sparty. BC has a new head coach, although he's been in the program for a while, in Frank Spaziani. They do return some experience for '09 (13 or 14 starters depending upon who you read), but will be breaking in a new quarterback and installing a new offesnive system. The Irish lost to the eagles at BC in '08 by a 17-0 score, in a lackluster game featuring awful playing conditions and reportedly an Irish QB battling the flu. Despite the score, ND had more yards and more first downs than BC, but Jimmy Clausen threw four interceptions that killed off any chance te Irish had of scoring. Bring this game home to the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium (and hopefully in front of the students on Fall break who stayed on campus or came back early to cheer on the team), eliminate the INTs, and sprinkle in a little payback, and Notre Dame should FINALLY get over the hump against the Eagles. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Oct. 31: Washington State (@ San Antonio). That's right, San Antonio. wtf? Presumably, a lot of die-hard Notre Dame fans living in or near Texas will pack the Alamo Dome (or wherever the game is being played), giving the Irish a nice "home field" avantage for this neutral site game. I am also presuming that Charlie Weis will be using this game as a showcase of the program for Texas-based high school recruits and potential recruits. Otherwise this game makes no sense to me. All that said, the Cougars beat Portland State and Washington last season (in OT, at home). They lost every other game, most of them by very ugly lopsided scores. They'll be better this year (they would have to be, wouldn't they?), but they won't give the Irish much trouble. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%


Nov. 7: Navy. The Middies had a very nice 8-5 season in '08 under first year coach Ken Nimuntuukomuntotrklo, and gave the Irish a scare last season in a 27-21 ND win. But Navy has to replace all their top offensive weapons from '08 (rushing, passing receiving). They will play valiantly but lose to ND @ ND. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%


Nov. 14: @Pittsburgh. The third toughest game on the schedule, Notre Dame lost at home to the Panthers last season in quadruple overtime, 33-36, blowing a game they led 17-3 at halftime. This year the game is in Pittsburgh. The Panthers return nine offensive starters (but not LeSean McCoy), and four defensive starters (but not defensive leader Scott McKillop). It should be a real tester for the Irish on the road, but hopefully the desire to atone for last season's embarrassing collapse will be the difference. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%

Nov. 21: Connecticut. The Huskies lose their top rusher (Donald Brown, 2083 yards in '08) and starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen 48.8 pct., 869 yds passing) off a team that went 8-5 with a Bowl win last season. Starting at quarterback for U-Conn in '09 is a familar face - former Notre Dame QB Zach Frazer, who was 46 of 83 (55.4%) for 536 yds, 2 TDs and 6 INTs for the Huskies in '08. You may recall that Zach was the first big recruit to commit to Coach Weis after he took over at Notre Dame. Upon his transfer out of the program I wrote:

I can only wish Zach all the best. When they write the book on the Charlie Weis era, Zach Frazer should have a small chapter in it all to himself, as he was a pivotal character in the Weis story. Zach was the first big recruit landed by Coach Weis. Zach was the answer to the question: Will this former NFL assistant coach be able to bring premiere talent into the Notre Dame program when competing against experienced college head coaches in the recruiting wars? Zach Frazer was a high school junior with a big arm, big numbers, and big hype. He was rated four stars at both Rivals.com and Scout.com. His verbal commitment sent shock waves throughout the Notre Dame community and throughout college football. It served notice that Coach Weis was a serious, energetic, and aggressive recruiter. No longer would Notre Dame wait, and wait, and wait before finally tendering offers to 4- and 5-star athletes. From now on, we were going to get into the hunt early and force other programs to play catch up. With one verbal commitment from Zach Frazer, Coach Weis (and Zach) changed the perception of Notre Dame's talent level. Zach took the Irish from being a program of mostly 3-star talent with some 4-star athletes sprinkled in, to being a program with 4-star talent sprinkling in some 5-star players. After his verbal commitment, Zach continued to help build the program by actively recruiting other top talent to come to Notre Dame. [...] Prior to the arrival of Charlie Weis, Notre Dame was losing 1- 2- and 3-star quarterbacks to transfer when they learned they either weren't going to be the starter (LoVecchio) or weren't going to be the primary back-up QB (Wolke, Olsen). Notre Dame now expects to lose a 4-star quarterback who can't crack the top 3 positions on the depth chart. That is a dramatic change, and we ironically owe that change, at least in part, to Zach Frazer.

Frazer's 2 TD / 6 INT ratio last season is worth noting, since interceptions were a problem for him at Notre Dame as well. In the 2007 Blue & Gold game Zach was 0 for 4 with an INT, which set the table for his departure from South Bend. I'm guessing Coach Weis will be able to find some Zach Frazer videotape for Coach Tenuta to digest in preparation for the U-Conn game. U-Conn comes to Notre Dame after a bye week and they will be looking to get a BIG win for their rising program. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Nov. 28: @Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh has brought some toughness (one might say dirty play) to the Farm, and Stanford is no gimme for anyone. Notre Dame beat the Cardinal 28-21 in '08 in Notre Dame Stadium, so a road game against a team that returns 17 starters from last season, including all the key playmakers, is no picnic. Still, it is Stanford, who will be hosting the Irish the week after hosting the Cal Bears in the annual "Big Game." There's a significant chance that Stanford could have a letdown when Notre Dame shows up. This game reminds me of the 2005 game between these two teams. Brady Quinn's Notre Dame squad was highly ranked and traveling to Palo Alto in need of a win to secure a berth in a BCS Bowl game. The game was a real battle, with the Irish coming out on top 38-31 and on their way to the Fiesta Bowl to face Ohio State. The '09 ND v. Stanford game could have similar implications. If Notre Dame has the kind of season they are capable of having, a win against the Cardinal could punch their ticket to a BCS Bowl game. In that case, I would expect ND to be very motivated, and to be playing very well if they are in that position. Stanford would be pesky but ultimately no match for Notre Dame. If, however, Notre Dame does not live up to expectations and needs a win against Stanford to earn a trip to a lesser bow game, and if Stanford could improve their bowl outlook with a big win, this game could be close again. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Conclusion: You've already heard all about the predictions of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook, who each have Notre Dame playing in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, so I'm not sure what else I can add. I am as optimistic as any Notre Dame fan, but even I don't predict an appearance in the Championship game. To get there would require a 12-0 season, which of course means beating USC, which I personally think is only about a 40% possibility. I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.