That is Gonna Leave a Mark

I'm a little late getting in here with reaction to the Michigan game.  But today is the first day I have been able to walk upright since taking that kick to the groin last Saturday, and I'm still feeling a little queasy.  There is obviously plenty of blame to go around for the loss, but for some reason I have been fixated on figuring out whether it was more the fault of the offense or the defense that we once again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.  It is a really close call, but I have decided that while nobody is blameless, the defense gets tagged with this loss just a tiny bit more than the offense.

The "O" has to take the heat yet again for its turnovers.  How many times have we heard the yapping heads on the TV tell us that the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 350% of the time?  The stat sheet says the Irish had five turnovers, but I don't really count the fumble on the final kickoff with time expiring.  That was inconsequential.  That fumble aside, we still have to deal with two interceptions thrown and two fumbles lost. 

1.  With the Irish up 14-0 early in the 2nd Quarter (do you even remember the Irish being up 14-0?) Tommy Rees threw an INT on 3rd-and-9 which gave Michigan the ball at the ND 45.  That's a bad thing, giving the opponent the ball with a short field.  Bad Tommy.  But the defense, which had been bottling UM pretty well, gave up a 43-yard TD pass on the second play of the UM drive.  Big chunk of yards, fast score.  We'll develop that theme.

2.  On the very next possession, still up 14-7, Rees and Irish march down the field but the drive ends on another Rees INT, caught at the UM 2-yard line and returned out to the 18.  It was a Red Zone scoring opportunity wasted (awful), but at least the Wolverines were backed up inside their own 20-yard line.  Michigan goes 3 & out and the Irish get the ball back at the 50 after a short punt.  Good job by the "D", and the turnover doesn't cost us additional points.

3.  In the 3rd Quarter, leading 17-7, Notre Dame's Cierre Wood fumbled the ball at the UM 29-yard line, recovered my Michigan.  Probably the only obvious mistake Wood made all game.  But we're still up by 10 points, and Michigan doesn't get great field position out of it.  Michigan gets one first down, but then Zeke Motta hauls in an Irish INT, and we're back in business at the ND 29.  Good work again by the "D", and the turnover doesn't cost us any points.  Rees and the offense then mount a beautiful 7-play, 71-yard touchdown drive that puts ND up 24-7.  Do you remember being up 24-7?

4.  Fast forward a bit to later in the 4th Quarter and the final (meaningful) Irish turnover.  It is probably the one everyone remembers.  With ND still ahead 24-21, they are driving and get to 1st-and-Goal at the Wolverine 7-Yard line.  Rees has a HORRIBLE, BUMBLING fumble and Michigan recovers at their own 9-yard line.  This is the second Red Zone opportunity wasted, and at this point the game is very tight.  Yet disaster did not ensue.  Michigan was pinned deep, and they went on a long drive that only ended when Robert Blanton intercepted a Denard Robinson pass in the Irish end zone.  Phew!  Bullet dodged.  Irish still lead, 24-21.  

Four turnovers, but miraculously only one of them led directly to a Michigan score.  Of course, two Red Zone opportunities were wasted and the team certainly could have used those points.  But when all is said and done, the offense once again amassed over 500 yards (out-gaining UM 513 to 452). The "O" did put 31 points on the board, staked the team to a 24-7 lead, converted 8 of 14 3rd downs, and possessed the ball for just over 37 minutes (37:01 to 22:59). The team averaged 6.0 yards per rush, and 7.1 yards per offensive play.  But for the inexcusable turnovers, that's a pretty impressive display of offense.  It should have been good enough to win.

The story of this loss has to be the collapse of the Irish defense.  From the start of the game until about midway through the 3rd quarter, the defense stymied the Michigan "O" pretty well.  Here are the numbers on the first nine Michigan drives:

3 plays, -1 yard, Punt
3 plays, 8 yards, Punt
4 plays, 15 yards, INT
4 plays, 21 yards, Punt
2 plays, 45 yards, TD
3 plays, -1 yard, End of Half
4 plays, 42 yards, Punt
4 plays, 14 yards, INT

That's actually some really good football.  One gaffe led to a quick TD, otherwise very, very solid. 

Now here are Michigan's next 5 possessions:

4 plays, 83 yards, TD
5 plays, 40 yards, TD
3 plays, 61 yards, INT (Whew!)
5 plays, 58 yards, TD
3 plays, 80 yards, TD

That was 28 points in the last 17 minutes and 13 seconds of the game.  Touchdown drives of 83 yards, 40 yards, 58 yards, and 80 yards - all of them like a hot knife through butter.  If the "D" had been able to just slow down Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense (never mind actually stopping them) ND would still have won the game.

I don't know the "why" of the defensive collapse.  Irish tacklers had pretty well contained Robinson the whole game, but in the 4th Quarter they were suddenly unable to catch him and bring him down.  Was it just fatigue?  Clearly the Michigan coaches decided that Gary Gray was the defensive back to pick on, and it paid off handsomely.  The whole planet sees that Gary needs to work on getting his head around sooner to find the ball when it is in the air.  And he better figure it out soon, because he is going to see a lot of jump balls in the end zone in the near future.

So at least I have settled the "who is to blame" question in my own mind.

Some quicker impressions of the Michigan game:

• Night game in Michigan Stadium, under the lights, was pretty cool.  Amazing atmosphere.  It would have been cool to have been there.  Except that I would have been surrounded by 100,000 drunk and obnoxious Michigan fans.  I was glad my daughter stayed back at ND for the game, rather than being in Ann Arbor in the middle of the night when that game let out.
• The Michigan throwback uniforms with the big "M" on the chest were awesome.  I didn't think the Irish uniforms were that great.  It'll be okay if I never see the green shamrock on the golden helmet again.   
• The Notre Dame cheerleaders throwback Catholic schoolgirl uniforms were awesome.  But probably I better say no more on that because it would make all of us uncomfortable.
• Glad to see Theo Riddick get back up on the horse and have a good game.  Apparently Coach Kelly agreed with me that having Theo work offense, kick returns and punt returns was too much.  
• Also glad to see TJ Jones make a nifty TD catch & run.  Nice bounce-back for him.
• Cierre Wood is the real deal.  Did you know he had 134 net rushing yards?
• Jonas Gray had a very nice game.  We need him to be solid.
• I really wish Ben Turk would show some consistency.  He had a better week but still shanked a 25-yarder early in the 4th Quarter that set UM up at the Irish 40-yard line.  Michigan was in the end zone 5 plays later.  We need to be able to control field position better in special teams overall. 
• Despite the painful turnovers, Tommy Rees is the right quarterback to lead this team.  That drive and TD pass to Riddick with 30 seconds remaining to put the Irish back on top 31-28 was cold blooded (even the TV announcers agreed) and I don't think Dayne Crist has shown that kind of moxie in tough spots. 

 

Just two weeks ago I picked the Irish to win 10 games and get to a BCS bowl game.  The 0-2 start has removed all the margin for error and this team has to be perfect for my prediction to come true.  I am not sure I see ten games' worth of perfection in this team which has coughed up ten turnovers in two games.  But that doesn't mean I'm not open to the possibility.

Sparty comes to town this week ranked #15 in both the AP and USA Today polls.  Clearly they deserve such praise, having dispatched of Youngstown State of the Missouri Valley Football Conference (an FCS school) and Florida Atlantic of the Sun Belt Conference.  According to the Sagarin rankings at USA Today, Sparty has played the 177th toughest schedule in the country so far this season.  Impressive!  But MSU must go on the road for the first time this year and take on a hungry and (hopefully) pissed-off Notre Dame squad that would like nothing better than a nationally televised win over a ranked opponent.  Notre Dame's schedule-to-date is ranked #20 by Sagarin.

Of course the Irish lost to Sparty on a fake field goal in OT last year.  The desire to atone for that bitter disappointment, in addition to playing in our house this year should make for a nice Irish win despite MSU's spot in the rankings.   

Wasn't That Special?

I worked feverishly last Saturday morning to complete my "2011 Irish Could Be Special" post before kickoff, so that I would have the right to bask in the glow of my own genius once the season was officially underway and had begun to unfold exactly as I had foretold.  Because that's why bloggers blog.  Well, the Irish performance wasn't exactly "special" in the way I had expected.  Saturday Night's "special" was more like this:

After watching the USF debacle I am having a very hard time deciding which was more bizarre: Two stadium evacuations due to lightning? Or the performance of the Irish on the field?  What follows here are my thoughts about what went down, as briefly as I can put them down.  Which is never brief enough, which is why I should quit doing this and get a life.

1.  It wasn't as bad as it looked and felt in the moment.  The Irish out-gained the Bulls by a factor of 2-to-1, 508 yards to 254 yards.  Although the performance was marred by atrocious lapses, you can't get too despondent over an offense that compiles 500+ yards, including 100+ yards and a 5.0 yards per carry average by the feature back.  The running backs had holes to run through, the quarterbacks generally had time to throw the ball.  What the QBs did with that time is another story.  The defense, in addition to holding USF to 254 yards, also allowed only one extended drive and yielded just one offensive touchdown.  That's a formula for success. South Florida's average gain per offensive play was just 3.5 yards, while ND had a 6.5 yard average gain per offensive play.

2.  In my "Irish Could be Special" season preview one common theme was that I expected the Irish defense to really be the backbone of this team and the key to its success.  The USF game was exactly the scenario I was contemplating.  The offense was struggling mightily to put points on the board, but the defense was stout and kept the team in the game.  Unfortunately, the offense was simply so inept that no amount of great defense could salvage the situation.  The "O" won't be THAT bad in the weeks to come, and this defense is good enough to win games for us.

3.  One really good thing I saw in the course of the game was the ability to make adjustments.  Early in the game the edge defenders were regularly losing contain and giving up some big plays around the end.  That wasn't happening any more in the second half.  The adjustments were made, the defensive ends/linebackers kept contain, and the same plays that hurt us in the first half were turned inside and snuffed out for short gains in the second.  As we move through a schedule that has Michigan's Denard Robinson and the twin option attacks of Navy and Air Force, the ability to adjust and play proper, disciplined assignment football will be critical.

4.  The one thing I didn't see from the defense was the big play - more specifically, getting the key turnover.  That was tied to a general lack of heat on USF QB Daniels, who the Irish sacked just twice for -7 yards.  While sound assignment defense is good, I really expected our defense to be more aggressive and disruptive.  Maybe we were being a little too cute with the game plan and saving some of those defensive wrinkles for Michigan?

5.  It really isn't fair to bash the entire offense for what happened on Saturday.  The O-line played a very good game, with only a couple of significant breakdowns that I recall.  As mentioned above, the running backs had room to move, the QBs had time to get the ball out.  The problem was limited to everyone on offense who actually touched the ball.

6.  I am guessing that Theo Riddick hasn't slept very well the past three nights.  His play on Saturday was awful.  Theo is a dynamic and exciting threat with the ball in his hands, which is why Coach Kelly has him returning kicks and punts in addition to being the number two wide receiver in the offense.   But if #6 can't figure it out and hold onto the ball, he's going be watching from the sideline.  Next man in.  I am wondering if Coach Kelly hasn't put too much on Theo's plate, and if we need to find someone else for punt return so Riddick can focus on his wide receiver duties.

7.  I feel a little bad for Jonas Gray.  His fumble (resulting in a record-long fumble-return TD) was a mistake, but I didn't think that it was completely egregious.  He was actually holding the ball pretty well.  Only when he was being held up by several USF defenders was one player able to really dig in and pry the ball loose.  Did anyone else think the referee was a little slow to blow the whistle on that play?  I thought Gray's forward progress was pretty clearly stopped.  And how is it that nobody in a gold helmet was in the area of the fumble to make the tackle and prevent any return at all?  Too much standing around.

8.  I mentioned in my season preview that I don't know who our third running back is, and also that I didn't know who was going to replace Robert Hughes.  The Gray fumble highlighted both issues.  Cierre Wood (who played a great game) is an exciting back.  He runs incredibly hard.  But that is a good news / bad news situation.  His hard running produces yards and points for the offense.  But it also wears him out.  He seems to need a lot of "breathers", and I am worried that he could get hurt.  He is not a bruiser.  He's tall and angular and reminds me of DeShaun Foster, who fought injuries throughout his short NFL career.  When he needs a break, Jonas Gray seems to be the only option right now.  Gray is not as dynamic as Wood, nor is he the power back that Hughes was.  The Gray fumble came in the type of goal-line situation that we saw Hughes in last year.  But I don't think Gray is going be a success in that role.  The point is, I think we need to see what our options are at running back after Wood and Gray, and develop that depth in a hurry.

9.  Speaking of the Gray fumble.  It occurred on 3rd down and goal to go from the 1-yard line.  Notre Dame had six Red Zone opportunities on Saturday and netted just two touchdowns, both of which came in the 4th quarter.  I haven't had the time to do a thorough analysis yet, but at some point I am going to take a hard look at Red Zone performance to get a feel for whether the Red Zone is an Achilles' heel for Coach Kelly's offense.  Has anyone seen a good analysis of that question?  To me, when you're trying to throw the fade route to Floyd on 3rd and goal you've run out of good ideas.  That damn fade route is such a low-percentage play, yet we run it all the time.  And we run it when everyone in the stadium knows we are going to run it.  It's a lousy call.  Roll the quarterback out, drag three receivers across the end zone, hit the open guy or run it in yourself. 

10.  I feel bad for Dayne Crist.  He has worked his butt off to come back from two knee surgeries and has given Notre Dame football his heart and soul.  Everyone says he is a great guy and an awesome teammate.  But I don't think he's going to make another start at quarterback for the Irish.  Although Dayne has the physique and the big, strong arm of the prototypical NFL quarterback, it doesn't appear that he has the calmness under pressure that makes some players "gamers."  It is said of the great ones (Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Joe Montana, Wayne Gretzky) that they experience the game in slow motion.  They are able to scan the field of play and clearly see what everyone is doing, and understand what his teammates and the opponents are going to do next, and then make the right play calmly and (seemingly) effortlessly.  One does not get that sense when watching Dayne play QB.  He just seems tight out there.  Trying way too hard not to f*$% it up.  Getting even tighter after he makes a mistake.  Although Dayne throws a beautiful ball, he takes too long to make the decision of where it needs to go and/or he misfires and throws an inaccurate pass resulting in an incompletion.

11.  Tommy Rees, who will make the start against Michigan, seems to be a "gamer."  He isn't perfect.  He has shown the ability to make mistakes and throws too many interceptions.  He isn't as tall as you'd like and he doesn't have the running ability or the rifle arm you'd like.  But he sure seems to have a better grasp of the offense than Crist, and he is definitely much quicker and more decisive about getting the ball out of his hand.  He seems to have no fear, and total faith in the offense.  If the pre-snap read calls for a pass to the tight end going down the seam with three defenders converging, then by God that's where the ball is going and he trusts his own ability to get the ball where it needs to be, and he trusts the receiver will make the play. He seems to have the memory span of a goldfish. (Goldfish were long thought to have such short memory spans that every lap around their tiny tank was filled with exciting "new" discoveries.  Scientists have since proven this to be untrue and unfair to the noble goldfish, but I have always loved this scientific tidbit and I cling to it for the purposes of this post).  Tommy is able to shrug off a bad play and approach the next snap as though the previous play never happened.  He is also very accurate with the ball.  The announcers on the broadcast were too distracted by Coach Kelly's teaching moment with TJ Jones to pick up on it, but did anyone else notice that on the Jones deflection and interception Rees literally stuck the pass in TJ's earhole?  Given that TJ wasn't looking for the ball and therefore did not adjust to the throw, that was very impressive.

12.  The team was 5 of 14 on 3rd-down conversions.  Not counting the 3rd-down rushing attempts, Dayne was 0 for 5 converting 3rd down via the pass.  He had one 4-yard completion on a 3rd-and-9, three incomplete passes, and one interception in the end zone.  That's four punts and one INT on five attempts to move the chains on critical 3rd-down.  Rees was 3 of 4 converting 3rd-downs via the pass.  He had one incompletion that set up the missed field goal attempt.  The other three times he completed passes to move the chains.  What is really remarkable when Tommy is in the game is how seldom he puts the team in a 3rd-down situations.  He led a 12-play, 76-yard drive that had only two 3rd-down plays: a 3rd-and-4 (converted via the pass) and a 3rd-and-goal from the 1 (converted by a Wood TD run).  He also led a 10-play, 99-yard drive that had only one 3rd-down play (3rd-and-9, converted by 12-yard pass to Eifert).

13.  So Tommy Rees is the Irish quarterback for now.  Did I mention that Rees was the OC Domer Player of the Year for 2010?  Just a little tidbit for you.  The question I have now is:  Who is number two?  If Tommy struggles, or gets hurt, is it Crist again?  Is the gap really that big between Crist and Hendrix or Golson?  If Tommy is the guy, the fact is that Dayne is a senior and is not likely to be your starter again.  When does Coach Kelly start getting Hendrix more practice reps, and game reps, to see if he gives the Irish a better chance to win that Crist?

14.  Much has been made of Coach Kelly's somewhat animated coaching style on Saturday.  Okay, I admit that I thought the guy was going to blow an aneurism and drop dead on national television.

I love Kelly coaching his team hard.  And I really, really love reading his lips when he is sharing a heartfelt moment with his team.  But even I thought he was over the line on Saturday.  Potential recruits don't want to see that.  Kelly lost his poise, and I thought he was unprofessional.  My guess is that Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick has addressed this issue.  Can I just say one thing though?  There are critics out there who have opined that Notre Dame should fire Kelly for treating his players this way, asserting that such behavior is unacceptable and should not be tolerated by a Catholic university.  When I first read this line of argument, all I could think is that the Catholic Church defended and protected pedophile priests for decades, if not longer.  Yet an angry football coach is beyond the pale.  Really?

15.  I didn't get the chance to put some of the final touches on my "Could Be Special" post Saturday, as I ran out of time.  I received some comments about being a "homer" and calling for a 12-0 season.  Those who have been with me a while know that I always put confidence level rankings next to my pre-season predictions.  My confidence level indicates how likely I feel it is that the Irish will win each of the games.  For example, my confidence level against USF was 70%.  Obviously, the result on Saturday fell within the 30% likelihood that we would lose.  I actually felt pretty good about my confidence level even after the game, because what were the odds, going into that game, that Notre Dame would commit the string of errors necessary for a South Florida win?  What were the odds of a 96-yard fumble return touchdown?  It has never even happened before.  The odds that David Ruffer misses a short field goal?  The odds that Harrison Smith gets personal foul penalties on back-to-back plays?  The odds that all those things happen in the same game?  And yet, despite all the disaster, Notre Dame lost by 3 points.  But to finish the thought, my confidence levels for the twelve games on the Irish schedule (posted here) are (in percentages):  70, 85, 70, 80, 90, 75, 70, 80, 90, 85, 85, 65.  If you add all those percentages up (using decimals, so 70% becomes .70), the result is a likely total of 9.45 wins.  So while I did think that Notre Dame had a shot at winning each of its twelve games, the math makes clear that a much more likely result is 9 or 10 wins.  With just a little luck we can still hit that target.  If it's ten wins instead of nine, this team can still hit my prediction of playing in a BCS bowl game.  It is much better to lose early than late, and I believe that South Florida will make some noise in the Big East and this loss, as painful as it was, won't hurt that much in the final polls.  But make no mistake, the loss to USF reduces the margin for error.

16.  Michigan is up next.  One thing we know for sure:  The Irish have more finish in them than the Wolverines.  The Big House experienced the same weather that caused the evacuations of Notre Dame Stadium, and it had to be emptied as well.  But unlike the Fighting Irish, the Wolverines decided to cancel the rest of their game against Western Michigan with 1:27 remaining in the 3rd quarter.  How embarrassing.

17.  The Wolverines had a fairly easy go of it against the Broncos, besides not having to actually play four quarters.  Denard Robinson was pretty balanced run versus pass, and didn't break any huge runs.  The key to the game on Saturday will be whether Coach Diaco has figured out what went so horribly wrong in trying to stop Robinson last season, and whether the Irish defense can make amends.  I expect the Irish to bounce back and play well under the lights in Ann Arbor.

Go Irish!  Beat Wolverines!               

Can I Change My Pick For Heisman? Michigan Reaction.

I actually have a lot of work to do today, but I wanted to very quickly throw out my thoughts on the tough loss to Michigan yesterday in a hard-fought, dramatic, and at times bizarre, football game.

• Denard Robinson is simply an astounding talent. He has been blessed with God-given ability, and he is making the most out of it in a system that is perfectly suited to maximize his potential. My Heisman Trophy ballot now has Robinson as my #1 choice, and I don't think anyone else is close enough to him to deserve to be #2 or #3.
  

• The fact that Denard Robinson is an amazing football player does not somehow transform Rich Rodriguez from scumbag to coaching genius. I'm looking at you Kirk Herbstreit.
  

• Robinson had 258 rushing yards and 244 passing yards, for 502 total yards of offense. By himself. All players not named Denard Robinson had just 30 rushing yards for Big Blue.

• Everyone will want to lament the fact that the Notre Dame defense gave up 532 yards to the Wolverines. Are you surprised to know that even though Notre Dame's starting quarterback was out of the game for most of the first half, the Irish still out-gained UM on the day with 535 yards? Yeah, I was surprised by that too.

• Despite Michigan's gaudy totals, I thought the defense played very, very well. Robinson certainly gashed us for a handful of big plays that were decisive, but Michigan only converted on 3 of 16 third downs in the game. Michigan was shut out in the second half until the final touchdown with 27 seconds remaining.

• Dayne Crist is going to be really good, pretty soon. He played just a little over one half of football yesterday and had almost 300 yards of total offense himself. He was 13 of 25 for 277 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. He also had 30 yards rushing and 1 sack for -11 yards, for a net 19 rushing yards. Total rushing and passing = 298 yards. His two touchdown passes were for 53 and 95 yards (to TJ Jones and Kyle Rudolph, respectively). But there is still a lot of room for improvement, in both accuracy and in decision making.

• Coach Kelly better take good care of Dayne Crist, because "next man in" at quarterback is problematic.

• I wonder if we'll ever learn what was going on with Dayne that caused him to sit out most of the first half. Loss of vision in one eye? So very strange, especially since he didn't appear to take any big hits on the noggin. I hope it was just a one-time thing and that Dayne is 100% healthy going forward. But it's a damn shame that such a freak thing probably cost us the game. Twenty-one of Michigan's 28 points came in the first half after Crist left the game.

• Notre Dame quarterbacks threw three interceptions (one per QB). This was a huge factor in Notre Dame losing the field position battle. Notre Dame's ASFP (Average Starting Field Position) was it's own 25. Michigan's ASFP was its own 32. On the young season, AFSP is 2 for 2 as a predictor of who wins the game.

• Another big factor in the field position battle was the inconsistency of Irish Punter Ben Turk. Turk punted 8 times on the day. Half of his punts were very good, pinning Michigan back inside their own twenty (two of them inside the 10). Half of his punts were poor: 38 yards to the UM 44, 37 yards to the UM 35, 29 yards to the 41, and 34 yards to the UM 48. Ben needs to step it up and drive the ball deeper when there's no danger of a touch-back.

• It's really nice to see our linebackers leading the team in tackles instead of our safeties. Manti Te'o is really maturing as a player. He had 13 total tackles on the day (6 of them solo). Carlo Calabrese, the meathead from New Jersey was second on the team with 10 tackles (3 solo).

• I like Mike Mayock as the new analyst. He's a football junkie who knows his stuff and doesn't mince words. He's actually value-added on the broadcasts.
  

• Our defensive line play has been a very pleasant surprise. Ian Williams, Kapron Lewis-Moore, and Ethan Johnson are all playing really well.

• Armando Allen was clearly the lead dog among running backs yesterday, and I have to think it was largely because he provided some leadership on the field while Dayne was out. He looked good, and Cierre Wood never really got it going.
  

• Did anyone else wonder if Kyle Rudolph's hamstring was going to hold up on his 95-yard race to the end zone? Nice job by the training staff getting him back to full health.

This was another amazing edition to the Notre Dame - Michigan series. It is painful that we came out on the losing end. But I think the team took some giant strides forward in the cajones department yesterday. They fought hard for sixty minutes in the face of severe adversity, and darn near pulled off a miracle. There will be no shame losing to this Michigan team once the end of the season rolls around, because as long as D. Robinson stays healthy the Wolverines are going to win some games.

Before the start of the season I thought we'd beat Michigan and quite likely lose to Sparty. I would probably revise that now. I think the defense is stout enough to slow down MSU's power game, and as long as Dayne is healthy we're going to score some points.

Go Irish!

Purdue Review and Muck Fichigan (IBG Week 2)

Her Loyal Sons hosts the Irish Blogger Gathering for this week. I've been on the road for work this week, putting in some long hours in the office, and my blogging has predictably suffered. Who the heck schedules any sort of actual work between September 1st and the Super Bowl anyway? It's anti-American in my view.

So I want to put down a few very quick thoughts on the Irish win over Purdue in Coach Brian Kelly's first game.

The Irish beat Purdue by 11 points, making the wise guys in Las Vegas look pretty darn wise. I had predicted a 14-point win, so I was pretty close. But the game was actually closer than the final score indicated. The Irish only out-gained Purdue by 36 yards (358 to 322). Each team had 20 first downs.

The things I saw that I really liked included an obviously improved ground game (Armando Allen was solid at 5.2 ypc, Cierre Wood was eye-popping at 8.3 ypc), and a generally solid bend-but-don't break defense that also managed to generate some pressure on the quarterback. Purdue's longest play from scrimmage was a 23-yard scramble by the quarterback. The longest run by a non-QB was 14 yards. The longest Boilermaker pass play was just 16 yards. The Irish sacked Marve 4 times. The final really good thing was a very solid special teams performance that contributed greatly to the Irish win in the field position battle. Notre Dame's ASFP (Average Starting Field Position) was it's own 33-yard line. Purdue's ASFP was the 22-yard line.

Dayne Crist's stat line was "fine." 19 of 26 for 205 yards, 1 TD and zero INT. I don't know how things go in your house, but in my house if my wife (or my daughter) tells me that something is "fine" that's not synonymous with "good." "Fine" is synonymous with "not at all fine, and you better figure it out and fix it mister or there's gonna be trouble later." It wasn't all on Dayne, as his receivers dropped several catchable balls. But Dayne had quite a case of Brady Quinn-itis going on, allowing his adrenaline (or something) to severely affect his accuracy. I am going to chalk it up to first-start jitters and hope there are no second-start jitters. Thank goodness for Kyle Rudolph who appears in the early going to be Crist's security blanket. Michael Floyd and Theo Riddick need to step it up against Michigan, and of course catch and hold onto the ball. Between the drops and three fumbles, the ball was on the ground way too often in game one. And a safety? Really? I trust that's the last we'll see of that.

All in all, a "good " start for the Irish in the Kelly era. Better than "fine," but not great.

Now a quick, but pithy contribution to this week's Irish Blogger Gathering


1) You've now seen Notre Dame Football: The Kelly Edition, Volume 1, Episode 1. Was it everything you thought it would be? Were characters missing from this episode that you were expecting to see featured? Did it strike you as a carbon-copy of Kelly's Cincinnati teams, or is there something discernible between the 2 programs beyond the colors of the uniforms?

It was not everything I thought it would be, as discussed above. I never felt like the passing game was truly "clicking", although the success in the running game was a bit of a surprise. I hope we'll see more from Theo Riddick this week. If he doesn't step up, opponents will shut down M. Floyd and dare you to find another way to beat them.

Was it a carbon copy of Cincinnati? Seriously? What Notre Dame fan has ever watched a Bearcats game? I haven't seen more than 5 minutes of Cincinnati highlights that I pulled off You Tube once. I only watch football that matters.


2) Pick one positive play, offense or defense, by the Irish from last Saturday that you feel serves as a bit of metaphorical foreshadowing for the 2010 Irish. Extra points if you can stretch the metaphor to fit Kelly's entire tenure at Notre Dame.

Man, you piled the words metaphorical, foreshadowing and tenure into this one question. I guess we know who the English major is.

Okay, here's your play. Score still tied 0-0 in the first quarter. The Irish have had the ball twice, punted twice. Armando Allen is the featured back and has had runs of 4, -2, 1, and 4 yards and one reception for no gain. Purdue is in Irish territory and driving, when Darrin Walls intercepts a Marve pass at the Irish 16. The Irish offense takes the field, with Cierre Wood at running back in relief of Armando Allen. On the first play of the drive, Cierre Wood takes the hand-off and slashes his way up field for 16 yards and a first down. He follows up with a 15-yard rush on the next play, and also adds another 15-yard run later in the drive. To cap the drive Armando Allen scores a TD on a nifty 22-yard drive that had a lot more energy than any of his carries before Wood entered the game.

Metaphorically, Cierre Wood's first carry was an injection of youth, energy, and talent into the the Irish offense that picked the team up and propelled it to a touchdown and, ultimately, to victory. This foreshadows the injection of youth, energy and talent in the person of Coach Kelly and the players he will bring into the Irish program.


3) Pick another play, offense or defense, by the Irish from last Saturday again, but this time, make it a negative play. Tell us how that play serves as a bit of metaphorical foreshadowing for the 2010 Irish. And again, bonus points for stretching it over Kelly's tenure.

Is it too easy to pick Michael Floyd's great catch and run, followed by his horrible fumble that cost the team a touchdown and put the outcome of the game in doubt?

That was a foreshadowing of the growing pains that we will see for much of 2010. We'll see flashes of brilliance, signs of great potential, and then we'll see flashes of failure, signs that we aren't ready to be champions yet. We saw all that on just that single painful play.


4) You know us, we're stat geeks. Give us a stat that we should be watching this season that will A) Tell us something enlightening about the 2009 Irish and/or B) Tell us something enlightening about the average Top-5 teams at the end of the 2009 season.

I love Average Starting Field Position (ASFP). It tells you a lot about the hidden yardage within a game. A team that takes care of the ball and makes few mistakes will generally win the AFSP battle, and they will usually win the game. Against Purdue, as noted above, the Irish won the ASFP battle by 11 yards (the 33 versus the 22 yard line). That's a fairly sizable margin, and that's why the Irish won by 11 points even though we barely out-gained the Boilers and both teams had 20 first downs. Turnovers is arguably the most important stat in football, and special teams play is the most under-appreciated. ASFP usually reflects a team's performance in both these important areas.


5) Notre Dame is currently a 4 point favorite in the coming Michigan game. You get 3 points for being at home. The AP poll actually ranks Michigan higher than ND. ND is 1-4-1 in the last 6 games with Michigan in which the Irish were favored and 9 and 6 in the last 15 games in which Michigan was favored. Does any of this worry you? Why or why not?

Let's see. Last November, with Irish QB Jimmy Clausen passing for 329 yards, UConn beat Notre Dame 33-30 in double OT in Notre Dame Stadium. One week ago, Michigan whipped UConn 30-10. So therefore Notre Dame is favored to beat Michigan this week by 4 behind a young QB making his second start.

Makes. No. Sense.

I'd prefer to be the underdog against UM any time. But I doubt that Coach Kelly is going to let the boys be over confident going into this game.


6) Last week, Frank at UHND put the Gathering on the spot with our predictions for the season. After week 1, are there any of those predictions that you'd like to alter? Any upon which you'd double down?

Clearly I was giving the Big East and Pittsburgh too much credit. I had Pitt ending the season as the highest-ranked Irish opponent, and I had their running back Dion Lewis winning the Heisman. Pitt has serious QB problems, which allowed Utah to just pack the box against them and stuff Dion Lewis. Lewis is in for a long season.


7) Describe in no fewer than 30 words why you hate Michigan.

Over the summer there was much discussion about a major re-alignment of college football, and many felt that Notre Dame could not survive as a relevant, national football power if it remained independent. So-called experts have repeatedly opined that it was obvious that Notre Dame should join the Big Ten. What most commentators fail to understand is that Notre Dame is independent for one reason, and one reason only: The University of Michigan, under a succession of football coaches and athletic directors, led a conspiracy fueled by anti-Catholic bigotry and jealousy which aimed to keep Notre Dame out of the Western Conference (forerunner of the Big Ten) and to discredit Notre Dame as a University and as a football program. Notre Dame became an independent and America's college football team playing coast-to-coast because the other universities in its own back yard refused to respect them enough to put them on the schedule. Given the long and inglorious history of despicable treatment of Notre Dame by the members of the Big Ten generally and Michigan particularly, Notre Dame should not EVER consider joining the Big Ten until the members of that conference issue a formal, public apology to Our Lady's University.

More on the ugly history of Michigan's treatment of Notre Dame can be found here:

http://www.domerdomain.com/forum/showthread.php?t=30904

Update On Michigan Cheating Allegations

Back in September the news broke about University of Michigan football players alleging that their own program was routinely violating NCAA rules by practicing and engaging in other football-related activities for hours well in excess of the daily and weekly limits set by NCAA rules.

Many poo-pooed the allegations, basically saying that if the Michigan players wanted to be a big-time football program, they should man up and stop whining.

I wrote that I thought the allegations were serious and indicated a lack of integrity in the Michigan program that was harmful to college athletics.

New information is now out which provides an important update on the allegations. There has been a thorough investigation of Coach Rich Rodriguez's program, and he has been cleared of all wrongdoing.

Just kidding!

Actually, both the University and the NCAA continue their investigations, and the latest news is that Coach Rodriguez and the football program failed to file, for the entire 2008-2009 school year, the monthly forms required by the school compliance office that track the hours put in by its players. Isn't that an odd coincidence?

The football program, it turns out, is the only sport at Michigan that failed to turn in the required forms. This certainly makes Coach Rodriguez look bad, but it doesn't say much about U of M's "institutional control" of the football program that nobody in the compliance office bothered to ask for the forms for a whole year either.

In possibly related news, ESPN's Michael Wilbon is reporting that Rich Rodriguez will not be back as the Wolverines' coach next year.

IBG: Life After Michael Floyd

Wow. It's been way too long since my last post, I'm embarrassed to say. Part of the problem was a business trip to Pittsburgh last week that threw me off my normal rhythm. But part of the problem has been a certain degree of befuddlement about the Irish that left me unsure of where I stand on this team. I wrote a quick post right after the loss to Michigan which pretty well captured my thoughts at that moment, and despite winning last week in a game that had very much the same feel as the Michigan game, my feelings haven't really changed much.

I feel like I owe you all a decent analysis of both the Michigan and Michigan State games, but I don't have the time to do so in a lot of detail. Here's the nutshell:

• The offense is playing well enough to win a lot of games. Passing game is strong, run game is acceptable.

• The defense is not playing well enough to win a lot of games. The vaunted Jon Tenuta "pressure" is rarely getting home, and the result has been unacceptably large yardage and scoring totals for two teams led by inexperienced quarterbacks. Michigan gained 430 yards (6.1 yards per play) and scored 38 points. Sparty gained 459 yards (7.1 yards per play) and scored 30 points.
  

• In each of the last two games four of the top five tacklers for the Irish were defensive backs. What's up with that?
  

• It's still the little things that kill you. Notre Dame had nine penalties for 75 yards against Michigan, and had ELEVEN penalties for 99 yards against Sparty.
  

• Special Teams play hasn't been special, although they were significantly better against Sparty than they were against Michigan. Against UM the Irish lost the field position battle by 8 yards (Irish ASFP of their own 29, Michigan at their own 37). Against MSU the Irish barely won the battle of ASFP (own 29 versus own 26). Funny how often winning the field position battle correlates to winning the game.
  

Bottom Line: If the Fighting Irish expect to meet any of their goals this season, the defense has to get a whole lot more stingy than it's been to date.

With Michigan and Michigan State finally out of the way, we can now turn our attention to the Purdue Boilermakers. This week's Irish Blogger Gathering is hosted by Frank V. at the UHND Blog. After you finish up here, head over there to read all the IBG posts for this week. This week's questions:

1. The obvious question for the week, how does Notre Dame deal with the loss of Michael Floyd? What wide receiver steps up? How, if at all, does the offense change?

Frank's right, as he usually is. This/these is/are the obvious question/questions. The answer has to be that the Irish handle the loss of Floyd in 2009 much better than they did in 2008. When Michael got hurt last season the Irish offense curled up into the fetal position and sucked it's thumb until he returned for the Hawaii Bowl. In his absence the Irish offense averaged 1.9 yards per play against USC, not even gaining a first down until the last play of the 3rd quarter. With Floyd watching from the sideline Notre Dame suffered a humiliating loss to Syracuse.

The primary problem the Irish have without Michael Floyd is that the offense goes from having two very dangerous deep threats to just one, Golden Tate. While ND has several quality receivers who can step into the mix, none of them have so far shown the ability to stretch the field vertically like Floyd and Tate can. It's an easy call for opposing defenses to double-cover Golden Tate and dare the other Irish receivers to beat them.

I expect to see more of Robby Parris and Duval Kamara, along with a heavy dose of tight end Kyle Rudolph. But the only other wide-out we have seen so far who has the ability to threaten the defense deep is freshman Shaquelle Evans. Physically he has the size and speed that reminds one of Floyd, although he hasn't yet shown the same play-making ability.

I hope that Coach Weis keeps the offense fundamentally the same as the first few weeks, stretching the field vertically with Tate and (probably) Evans. The difference will be that, in the absence of Floyd, Jimmy Clausen won't be able to just throw the ball up in the air and expect #3 to come down with it. He'll have to actually wait for a receiver to get open, and thus more throws will come over the middle of the field to Rudolph, Kamara, and Parris once Tate and Evans have lured the coverage deeper.

It would be a mistake to decide that this is Purdue, we should be able to handle them, so let's just work on our run game. That could well work for one game, but Coach Weis needs to let Clausen and the receivers run the entire offense so that they are ready to execute the full passing attack against Washington and USC without Floyd to lean on. This week will be a really good test of Jimmy Clausen's development. Can he work through his reads and deliver the ball to the open receiver without committing costly turnovers?

2. After seeing three games from Notre Dame in 2009 have your expectations increased, decreased, or remained the same?

At the conclusion of my season preview post I included the following thoughts on season expectations:

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations [...]. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

I think my feelings remain about the same. Notre Dame "should" win at least nine games. Ten or more wins would be a very good season. Less than nine wins would be very, very disappointing. I guess what has changed for me is my level of optimism that they will actually exceed nine wins. I still think they will, but the poor overall play of the defense and the loss of MF has reduced the margin of error for this team to almost nil.

3. The last two years against Purdue, a Notre Dame player has had their breakout game. In 2007 it was Golden Tate and in 2008 it was Armando Allen. Who do you think could have their breakout game against the Boilermakers this year?

I really, really hope that Shaquelle Evans or another wideout has the breakout game. For the longer term prospects of the team, we need to find another deep threat ASAP. But I'm not counting on it. I think the more likely breakout player is Jonas Gray. Armando Allen is nicked up and may not play, and almost certainly will not play as much this week. In his place Jonas Gray will get consistent carries, he will get into a rhythm, and he will grind down the Boilermakers. A slightly more conservative game plan will also alter the pass/run mix and mean more carries for Gray. I see him having a 100-yard game.

Another two possibles: Tight end Mike Ragone and linebacker Manti Te'o. Coach Weis has always liked two-TE sets, and the loss of MF is the perfect time to get really creative with his formations and personnel. Purdue knows that Kyle Rudolph can be trouble and will give him a lot of attention, opening things up for Ragone. Catch the ball when it comes your way Mike!

Besides Brian Smith, the Notre Dame linebackers have under-performed so far this season. If the starters aren't going to make any tackles or get to the opposing QB, why not put #5 in there and turn him loose? Let's see what the young phenom can do.

4. How would you grade the three new coaches on this year’s staff based on the first three games?

Offensive Line coach Frank Verducci gets an "A-". Jimmy has stayed upright and very productive. The running game is more consistently productive than any other time in Weis' tenure. The "minus" is for too many stupid penalties.

New Running Backs coach Tony Alford gets a "B+". The Irish running backs seem to be running with an entirely new level of confidence and decisiveness this season. Armando Allen is no longer falling over on first contact, and Jonas Gray doesn't even look like the same guy.

Defensive Line coach Randy Hart gets a "C-". His guys have been largely invisible so far this season. It has been so bad that when Ian Williams actually made a tackle last week I was genuinely surprised to hear his name called.

5. Your thoughts on Golden Tate’s stage dive into the Michigan State band? Was he trying to avoid running into the band? Was the whole thing intentional? Little of column A, little of column B?

It was totally hilarious. When I saw it, all I could think was "Lambeau Leap." Love the exuberance. Glad nobody got hurt. I always worry about guys getting a sheet music stand in the eye when they go into the band.

6. How has your opinion of the Notre Dame schedule changed from how you felt about it in the pre-season?

It doesn't look such a cakewalk now, does it?

• Michigan is MUCH better than expected.
• Washington BEAT the Trojans.
• Navy almost beat Ohio State.
• U-Conn, Stanford, Pitt all look to be legit.

The only team that looks less formidable than expected is USC who, despite losing to UW, has gone into the horseshoe and beaten Ohio State.

7. Should Jimmy Clausen be getting more hype for the Heisman?

Not yet. Jimmy has played well so far. But, seriously, throwing the ball up in the air knowing that Floyd and Tate are going to come down with it for a touchdown looks too easy. This week can be the start of Clausen's Heisman campaign if, without Michael Floyd to lean on, he can carve up Purdue for 300+ yards and three or four TDs. If Jimmy can make Robby Parris and Duval Kamara look like All-Americans, then any Heisman talk will be deserved.

Go Irish! Beat the Boilermakers!

P.S., If you are looking to buy or sell any Notre Dame football tickets, please visit our site sponsor, NotreDameTickets.com. They'll hook you up!

It's the little things that kill you

An awful, awful loss today for the Fighting Irish. Despite an offense that was very productive, and a defense that was largely in control, Notre Dame used a combination of penalties, turnovers, poor special teams play, poor tackling, and poor coaching to snatch defeat from jaws of victory.

Keys to the game:

1. Referees were awful. Overturn of the Armando Allen touchdown was horrendous. Ticky-tack call on Armando un-sportsmanlike conduct. Non-calls on Michigan un-sportsmanlike plays. Non-calls on clear pass interference plays.

2. Jonas Gray fumble was costly.

3. Tough day for Nick Tausch. Missed an easy field goal, and his kick-offs were too short all day.

4. Kick-off coverage was lousy. Special teams touchdown allowed was the difference in the game, both on the scoreboard and in momentum.

5. Did the Irish defense EVER put a clean shot on Tate Forcier? I blogged before the game about the importance of keeping contain on Forcier and NOT letting him get to the outside where he could hurt us. When we kept contain, he was held in check. Unfortunately, our defenders were juked out their jocks by Forcier on several plays that made the defense look bad.

6. Charlie Weis' clock management on the last offensive possession was awful. Too much high-risk play calling. Run the ball, throw short high-percentage passes, and work the damn clock!!!!

The only good news coming out of this game is that Michigan is vastly improved from a year ago and will win a lot of games, so a loss this week won't necessarily kill the Irish in the long run -- IF Notre Dame goes on and still wins ten games. NO more margin for error now.

Dammit!!!

It's Michigan

As a Domer from California, I have always considered USC to be the true arch nemesis of the Fighting Irish. I always get really jacked up for the games against Michigan, and I think it's a great rivalry that produces excellent football games, but for me USC has always been "the enemy."

For Notre Dame folks from the Midwest, however, it is Michigan. Irish fans from Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Illinois seem to feel about U of M the way I have always felt about the Trojans. Legions of Notre Dame supporters from that area of the country can't even utter the word "Michigan" without the word "sucks" right behind it. And they absolutely mean it every time they say it.

Whether you just love a great rivalry and a great game among two of the perennial powers of college football, or whether you're a hater, tomorrow's game in the Big House is big. You've heard the story line: Two programs teetering on the brink of redemption. One of the programs will use a victory on Saturday as proof that they're "back" as a player on the national stage. The other will suffer a bitter defeat and face the reality that there is still a long road ahead of them on the way back to legitimacy. It sounds a bit contrived, and there's some truth in it. But really, this game is big for each program, although for different reasons.

Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez needs to beat Notre Dame to prove that last year's debacle was an anomaly, that he really can coach football, and that the team is heading in the right direction. Beating Notre Dame would quiet the many of the doubters who have looked at last season's record and the current scandals surrounding the team and have begun to seriously wonder if Dick Rod is he right man for the job. In other words, beating Notre Dame would be an important positive step that would buy Rodriguez a little more good will and a little more time to put his system in place. Losing tomorrow would embolden the critics, and crank up the heat on the hot seat a little, but it wouldn't put Rodriguez in a drastically different spot than he was a week ago. In other words, for Michigan a win would be a big boost for the program while a loss would essentially leave them at status quo.

Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis needs to beat Michigan to show that the dramatic improvement in the way his team has played in Hawaii and against Nevada is not a fluke but rather is an accurate indication of how good this football team is. The Fighting Irish have big goals this year, and a win over Michigan is fully expected to be one more step on the path to playing in a BCS Bowl game this season. A nice win tomorrow would be some validation that this program is, in fact, heading in the right direction. Losing tomorrow, on the other hand, would be a big blow. It would likely let the air out of the BCS balloon. Losing to this Michigan team would be a clear sign that either (1) Weis isn't bringing athletes into the program that can compete against elite teams, or (2) he can't coach them up to an elite level. Making WAC teams look bad is all well and good, but it's meaningless if you can't run with the big dogs. If coach Weis in his 5th season, with this roster, can't beat Dick Rod in his 2nd season, with a depleted roster, playing a true freshman at QB, then folks are going to decide that he's not the right guy for the job. If not now, when? So Notre Dame is in the inverse of the position Michigan is in. For the Irish, a win is good, but really keeps the program at status quo. But a loss tomorrow would be a huge setback.

So is this game "bigger" for Notre Dame or for Michigan? Hard to say. Michigan has more to win, but Notre Dame clearly has more to lose. Unfortunately, this means Michigan is in the position of the underdog with nothing to lose and no pressure, while Notre Dame is the favorite with all the expectations on them and more at stake in the outcome. I expect the Michigan players to feel good about playing at home, and to be "loose" heading into the game. I am a little concerned that the Irish players could feel some of the pressure of a big game on the road as the favorites, and might be a little tight. There haven't been any signs of "tight" play the last two times out, but Coach Weis' teams have exhibited some "tight" play in the past. Hopefully the last two wins have instilled real confidence in the team, and not just fragile bravado. If the confidence is real, then they'll be fine.

Last year the Irish used six Wolverine turnovers and general disarray in the Michigan program to whip U of M 35-17. You have to expect a closer game this season. While Notre Dame is returning essentially the same cast of characters as last year, Michigan is a different team. Judging from last week's game against Western Michigan, it's clear that Coach Rodriguez has finally installed his offense in Ann Arbor. And although Tate Forcier is just a freshman, the highlights from last week demonstrate that he has at least a basic grasp of the offense and the right skill set to run it. On the other side of the ball, Michigan's new defensive coordinator is Greg Robinson, who was last seen coaching Syracuse to a 24-23 win over Notre Dame last season in what I consider to be the worst loss suffered in the Weis era. In that game the Orange held the Fighting Irish to just 41 net rushing yards and an average of 1.5 yards per carry. Notre Dame converted just 4 of 16 third down opportunities in that game.

Clearly, Michigan will be better on both sides of the ball than the team we saw last September. The Irish are going to have to show up expecting a tough game. Given the focus we saw from the team in the opener last week, I expect them to be ready to go.

While I do anticipate the Michigan defense to be improved from last season, I think the Irish offense is also better and will do fine as long as Clausen doesn't turn the ball over.

The key to the game will be how the defense handles Michigan's shiny new spread offense. I watched the key bits of the Wolverines' game against the Broncos, and it's clear that Tate Forcier is more mature and polished than the typical freshman. He doesn't have a rocket arm, but he is very accurate, both from the pocket and while on the move, and he seems to make very good decisions about where to go with the ball. The Notre Dame defense will have to be very disciplined to be successful.

First, the defensive backs are going to have to stay disciplined in covering receivers down field, and not coming off them too soon to defend what looks like a run by the QB. A high percentage of Michigan's offense starts from the play action, followed by the QB rolling out with a run-pass option. If the Irish DBs bite on the play action, or come up to stop Forcier running, he will throw the ball over their heads to wide open receivers running free down field. The defensive backfield has to understand that it is not a running play until Forcier actually crosses the line of scrimmage. A corollary of this is that the Irish front seven have to be able to handle the running game and pressure Forcier without secondary help. The safeties are going to be busy in coverage, so the defensive line and the linebackers are on their own in the run game.

Second, the front seven have to pressure Forcier, but they have to do so without letting him break contain. Forcier is okay from the pocket, but he really makes the big plays on the rollout after he has escaped the pocket. If the defense allows him to get outside, he will do a lot of damage with his arm or with his feet, especially since the defensive backs will be downfield in coverage rather than supporting run defense. Coach Tenuta's defense has to pressure the young quarterback and get in his face, but it is equally important to cut off his avenues of escape. If they can keep up both pressure and contain, they will have success. If they can't, it will be a long day.

Third, the defense has to make the first tackle count. Irish tackling was poor last week, and while it cost a few yards, it didn't cost us on the scoreboard. Against Michigan missed tackles will hurt. Forcier will escape and complete a long pass. Michigan's other quarterback, Denard Robinson, will turn a missed tackle into a long speedy touchdown. Although he's not real big, he is scary fast. I am hoping that he will spend some quality time with Manti Te'o tomorrow. I think Manti can slow him down a bit.

Robinson seems to be the designated "wilcat" QB for Michigan, and so far hasn't shown himself to be a real threat in the passing game. If the defense keeps contain on him and doesn't miss any tackles, he shouldn't pose as many problems as Forcier over the course of the full game.

Are they up to it? You bet they are. I believe Coach Tenuta's blitzing schemes, and the depth to keep the defense fresh, will have Tate Forcier's head spinning. I believe they'll play with the necessary discipline and they will slow the Wolverine attack more than enough to enable Notre Dame to win the game comfortably.

Notre Dame 31, Michigan 20.

Go Irish! Beat Wolverines!

Michigan's Cheating Scandal Is Serious

The big news in college football the past couple of days has been the report that Coach Rich Rodriguez and the University of Michigan football program have been systematically cheating by mandating that players participate in football activities for hours well in excess of the daily and weekly limits set by NCAA rules. It has been surprising to me that much of the early spin from the talking heads at places like ESPN has largely been of the "If you're not cheating, you're not trying" variety. Commentators are basically accusing the former and current Michigan football players of whining about the hard work required to play Division I football, even at a lesser program like Michigan's. (Cheap shot. Sorry. Not.)

Here, very quickly, is why I think the current scandal at UM ought to be taken very seriously.

1. It's an integrity issue. As an NCAA institution, Michigan has agreed to abide by a certain set of rules. If they knowingly and consistently break those rules they are cheaters, and it is fair to call their integrity into question. If I were a UM official, employee, alumnus or student, I would probably not want my University's integrity ridiculed. This doesn't appear to be an isolated incident either, as Dick Rod's integrity has been questioned since the day he left West Virginia for Michigan (and tried to renege on his contract buyout clause at WVU).

2. Competitive balance. There's a group of football players at Western Michigan University who are getting ready to play the Wolverines this Saturday. The Broncos already have to contend with playing against a team full of superior athletes. Now they have to contend with playing a team full of superior athletes that is breaking the rules to gain an unfair competitive advantage. That sucks for WMU, and it isn't fair to any team on Michigan's schedule (including Notre Dame). Do you remember how OUTRAGEOUS steroid use was in baseball, because it created an unfair competitive advantage? How OUTRAGEOUS the New England Patriots' filming from the sidelines was because it created an unfair competitive advantage? Consistently getting more hours of supervised workouts or mandatory training or coaching sessions in each week is an unfair advantage every bit as serious as either of those situations.

3. These are STUDENT athletes. At least they are supposed to be. Michigan has already been identified as one of the football factories that steers its players (mostly its black players) into worthless academic majors, and then fails to graduate them. They are already under criticism for sacrificing the education of their student athletes on the altar of football, so you would think that UM administrators would be paying a little more attention to the academic progress of their student athletes. Even at a school like Michigan, only a handful of players will ever play football professionally. The vast majority of student athletes will need to find another way to make a living, and they SHOULD be able to fall back on a Michigan education. I have no doubt that Dick Rod and his assistant coaches go into the homes of their targeted high school recruits and sell the academic excellence of the University of Michigan. No doubt they promise these kids' moms & dads that their son will get a world class education at U of M. But if the football coaches are placing unreasonable and illegal demands on the students' time, it is clear that the coach and the University do not consider actual education to be a high priority. Which is a moral problem as well as an integrity problem.

If these allegations about Coach Rodriguez and U of M prove to be true, I hope Dick Rod is humiliated and unceremoniously fired. Cheating should not be tolerated. Cheating that deprives student athletes of the opportunity to actually get the world class education they have been promised should be punished.

Notre Dame Shaking Down the Thunder in 2009

Put up or shut up. That seems to be the consensus among the Irish faithful and the college football cognoscenti regarding Notre Dame's 2009 football season. The Irish return almost the entire offense from a year ago, led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a junior heading into his third year as a starting QB who completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards last year with a 25/17 TD/INT ratio. Clausen will be playing behind an offensive line that has already amassed 100 career starts between them, which puts them among the most experienced offensive lines in the country. That line experience should translate into time to throw the ball for Clausen, and a new offensive line coach, Frank Verducci, will hopefully mean improved O-line play in the running game.

If Clausen does have time to throw, and he should, that means trouble for opposing secondaries. With Golden Tate and 2008 OC Domer Player of the Year Michael Floyd at wide receiver and Kyle Rudolph at tight end, Notre Dame has among the best receiving corps in the nation. All three players can stretch the field (they average 18.6, 15.0, and 11.7 yards per catch, respectively); none can be effectively covered by a single defender. And you can't double-cover all of them. If these three stay healthy, Clausen and the Irish offense should put up Brady Quinn-esque numbers in 2009. Tate, Floyd and Rudolph are complemented most notably by junior Duval Kamara (who has terrific size but needs to have a bounce-back year) and freshman Shaquelle Evans who has looked impressive in camp and is really pushing for early playing time.

The ability to stretch the field with the passing game should really benefit the Irish running game, led by 2008 leading rusher Armando Allen (134 carries for 585 yards; 50 receptions for 355 yds), who has been announced as the clear starter by Coach Weis. Allen will be accompanied in the backfield by James Aldridge (91 carries for 357 yds in '08), now the starter at fullback. Robert Hughes (112 carries for 382 yds in '08) will be first to spell Allen, but sophomore Jonas Gray and exciting freshman Cierre Wood will both see carries in 2009. The expectations with the running game are that the vertical threat of the passing game prevent defenses from stacking 8 defenders at the line of scrimmage, thus giving the running backs some room to work. Key will be whether the new offensive line coach can solve the short-yardage woes that have plagued Charlie Weis' offense since he arrived in South Bend. If these experienced backs, running behind an experienced group of linemen, can finally be counted on to reliably move the sticks in short yardage situations, thus sustaining drives and keeping our defense fresh, Notre Dame fans should be treated to a very enjoyable year.

In the off-season Charlie Weis shuffled the duties of his coaching staff a bit (he now has an associate head coach and two assistant head coaches), but the most significant result is that Jon Tenuta is now the defensive coordinator. Most expect that this will therefore be an aggressive, attacking defense that attempts to dictate the tempo of the game to opposing offenses and keep opponents back on their heels. In some respects the approach can be high risk - high reward, as the frequent blitzes Tenuta employs leaves defensive backs working in single coverage. Fortunately, the Irish secondary looks to be top-notch this year and should be more than capable of handling the assignment. The loss of safety David Bruton to the Denver Broncos will certainly be felt, but safeties Kyle McCarthy (110 tackles in 2008, most ever by an Irish defensive back) and Harrison Smith (57 tackles in '08 was 4th on the team) should fill in ably. Notre Dame is deep at the corners, led by Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton. If teams are going to move the ball on Notre Dame, it will not be through the air.

As in previous seasons, the concern with the Irish defense is up front. Once again, D-line is considered to be talented and scrappy, but probably a bit undersized. Nose Tackle Ian Williams weighs in just north of 300 lbs, but the other projected starting defensive tackle, the very disruptive Ethan Johnson, weighs just 275 lbs. The defensive ends, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal weigh in at 265 and 246 lbs. These players are all well suited to Jon Tenuta's aggressive defensive system, but it remains to be seen how stout they can be against teams that are content to run the ball straight at you. The defensive front seven have to show the ability to take on blockers heads-up and stuff a hole. The past two seasons have seen too many defenders trying to run around blocks, leaving big seams for opposing ball carriers to run through until a defensive back came up to make a tackle.

The top tackler among defensive linemen last season was the departed Pat Kuntz, whose 42 was 6th best on the team. The next D-lineman in tackles was nose tackle Ian Williams with 40 (8th best in '08). Digest that for a minute. Notre Dame's top five tacklers in 2008 did not include a defensive lineman. You might argue that it's the scheme, that the D-line is supposed to occupy blockers and let the linebackers run to the ball. I'd buy that, if the stats backed it up. But the top two tacklers for ND last season weren't linebackers. They were safeties. And it wasn't close. Kyle McCarthy led all Irish defenders with 110, David Bruton was 2nd with 97. Linebacker Maurice Crum was a distant third with just 65 tackles. Notre Dame's front seven needs to be much more effective this year stopping the run, so that the defensive backfield can worry less about run support and concentrate instead on defending the pass.

While the loss of Maurice Crum's leadership in the middle of the defense will be felt, the fact is that the guys replacing Crum are much more talented. Super-recruit Manti Te'o will get on the field early, likely playing alongside junior Brian Smith and sophomore Darius Fleming, although the competition for starting linebacker jobs is intense this season, and that's a good thing. Whoever plays, the linebackers have to step up this year in both stopping the run without DB help and in getting home and sacking opposing quarterbacks on Coach Tentuta's blitzes.

On special teams, freshman Nick Tausch came into camp and took control of the kicker position, winning both the kick-off job and the place-kicking job. I am very anxious to see the young man kick. Lack of a consistent place-kicker has plagued the Irish for two seasons, and the inability to kick the ball into the end zone for touchbacks has been frustrating. If Nick Tausch can bring Notre Dame's not-so-special teams up from "awful" to "average" it will be a big boost to Irish fortunes in 2009. Eric Maust remains the ND punter.

So how do I see this team shaping up in 2009? As I wrote in an earlier post:

With respect to Notre Dame football, there just isn't much uncertainty this year, other than the ultimate uncertainty of how many wins the Irish will put in the books. [...] For 2009, there just aren't many unknowns. The players in 2009 are almost without exception the same guys we watched lose at home to Syracuse and then win impressively in Hawaii. Same quarterback, same running backs, same linemen, same receivers. Same defensive players, with the exception of an opening at linebacker and an opening at safety.

So, given that we're going to see what is essentially the same group of players, each of them a year older, a year more mature (physically and emotionally), a year more experienced, what can we realistically expect?

The 2008 Fighting Irish posted a 6-win, 6-loss regular season and had a dominating performance in winning the Hawaii Bowl 49-21. That's a 7-6 overall record. Digging just a little deeper, however, one quickly learns that the 2008 squad, from a talent perspective, should have posted a 9-3 regular season record. The losses to Michigan State (argh), Boston College and USC were never really in doubt. But ND blew double digit leads against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. A team with a little more experience, and a little more maturity, doesn't lose those games in 2008. So while they fully earned their 6-6 mark, from a talent and ability standpoint the Irish were arguably playing at the level of a 9-3 squad.

Is it unreasonable to expect the 2009 Fighting Irish, with the added maturity and experience, to play at least at that 9-3 level this season? I do not think that's unreasonable at all. And that's before you even begin to look at the 2009 schedule.

Let's go ahead and look at that schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).


Sept. 5: Nevada. The danger in this game is that the Irish fail to take this good team from the wacky WAC seriously enough while looking ahead to the Michigan game. In 2008 the Wolf Pack's offense was potent and balanced, led by QB Colin Kaepernick who is a true dual threat with 1,100 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing last season. 2009 will be his third season as a starting QB. The Irish defense's speed and athleticism should be able to slow Kaepernick enough to allow Jimmy Clausen and the ND offense to win the game by scoring at will against a poor Nevada defense whose main weakness is in the secondary. Key to the game will be the Irish defense getting off the field on 3rd Down and the Notre Dame offense controlling the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. (Isn't that always the key?). The point is, Nevada is dangerous and if you don't take care of business they are good enough to ruin your entire season in Week 1. I will be watching this game closely to see if the 2009 Irish dominate a less talented team like they should, rather than playing down to the level of the opponent and keeping the game "interesting" far longer than they should (see: 2008 season opener against San Diego State). Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%

Sept. 12: @Michigan. It was a party in Notre Dame Stadium as the Fighting Irish blew out the Wolverines in what must have been a cathartic 35-17 victory following the travesty that was 2007. While Notre Dame looked impressive that day, they were helped by 6 UM turnovers and actually had some problems slowing down the Wolverine running game in the person of Sam McGuffie. I expect UM to cut down on the turnovers and put up a better fight in the Big House, but they are still in a serious re-building mode and are expected to start a freshman at quarterback. Add to their already substantial problems the exploding controversy about the Wolverines and Dick Rod being a bunch of cheaters and I expect UM to be distracted and confused enough for the Irish to get a nice road win in a physical game. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Sept. 19: Sparty. I hate those guys. Coach Weis is 1-3 against Michigan State which, to coin a phrase, is not good enough. In 2007 MSU beat ND by 17 pts. In 2008 the margin was 16 pts. This is not progress. Notre Dame's problems against Sparty have been in the trenches. MSU has been more physical than the Irish on both sides of the ball and that has told the tale. ND has been unable to run the ball with any success, and has had difficulty contending with the Spartan power rushing attack. This game will be an important test against a very good team. Will the experienced Irish O-line finally be able to assert itself in the running game? Will the Irish front seven on defense be able to man up and compete with MSU's power game? MSU will be a very good team and probably the second toughest game on the Irish schedule. But Sparty will badly miss the leadership of talented QB Brian Hoyer and the production of RB Javon Ringer. Irish win a battle at home. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%

Sept. 26: @Purdue. Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 last season. Purdue's top three rushers, top two passers, and top two receivers from that team are gone, to be replaced by untested players led a by a first year head coach. The defense does return a lot of experience, and talent, but Purdue is going to have a tough year. The Irish defense should force some turnovers and lead Notre Dame to a convincing win in West Lafayette. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%






Oct. 3: Washington. The once proud Huskies were winless in 2008 and own a 14-game losing streak. But they got rid of Coach Tyrone Willingham and brought in former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to be the new head coach. No doubt they will eventually get better, but the Irish crushed UW last year 33-7 in Seattle, and one would have to expect a similar result when the Huskies visit Notre Dame Stadium in '09. Sarkisian will have the team playing with more heart and pride, no doubt, but even with touted QB Jake Locker healthy again, Notre Dame fans know all too well how hard it can be to overcome a Ty Willingham-created talent deficiency. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%

Oct. 10: -Bye-. Great spot for the bye week. Five games played and USC next up on the schedule. Gives the coaches and players a chance to re-group, get healthy, and take some time to prepare for the Trojans.

Oct. 17: USC. Toughest game on the schedule, again. It's great to get USC in Notre Dame Stadium. Unfortunately the Trojans are coming off a bye week as well. But they may well need it, having already played Ohio State and Cal, both on the road. A third tough road trip this early in the season could have the boys of Troy feeling a little ragged. Of course, USC is loaded, particularly at running back and receiver. But they just announced that true freshman Matt Barkley will be the starter at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. Recalling last year's painful game in the Coliseum, the Notre Dame defense actually played pretty respectably against the Mark Sanchez led Trojan offense. But the complete inability of the Irish to move the ball meant the defense was on the field all night, usually with their backs against the wall. Given the loss of so many 2008 Trojan defensive players, the Irish offense should fare better in 2009 (It really hurt that Michael Floyd was injured and unable to play against USC in '08). Likewise, the Irish defense should have more success this year playing against a true freshman at QB. I still can't predict an Irish victory, given that the gap between the two programs is too wide to close in the space of one season. Two things can really help Irish chances in this game. First, the students MUST go to the game. October 17 falls on the first weekend of Fall break, and it would be tough to win the game if the students go home for break and leave empty seats in the stadium. The team will be pumped up if everyone stays for the game and gets LOUD. Second, pray for snow. Or at least a really miserable cold, rainy day. Those Southern California kids HATE the cold. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 40% (i.e., 40% chance of Irish win)

Oct. 24: Boston College. My irritation at losing to Boston College (6 straight) is probably second only to my irritation at losing to Sparty. BC has a new head coach, although he's been in the program for a while, in Frank Spaziani. They do return some experience for '09 (13 or 14 starters depending upon who you read), but will be breaking in a new quarterback and installing a new offesnive system. The Irish lost to the eagles at BC in '08 by a 17-0 score, in a lackluster game featuring awful playing conditions and reportedly an Irish QB battling the flu. Despite the score, ND had more yards and more first downs than BC, but Jimmy Clausen threw four interceptions that killed off any chance te Irish had of scoring. Bring this game home to the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium (and hopefully in front of the students on Fall break who stayed on campus or came back early to cheer on the team), eliminate the INTs, and sprinkle in a little payback, and Notre Dame should FINALLY get over the hump against the Eagles. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Oct. 31: Washington State (@ San Antonio). That's right, San Antonio. wtf? Presumably, a lot of die-hard Notre Dame fans living in or near Texas will pack the Alamo Dome (or wherever the game is being played), giving the Irish a nice "home field" avantage for this neutral site game. I am also presuming that Charlie Weis will be using this game as a showcase of the program for Texas-based high school recruits and potential recruits. Otherwise this game makes no sense to me. All that said, the Cougars beat Portland State and Washington last season (in OT, at home). They lost every other game, most of them by very ugly lopsided scores. They'll be better this year (they would have to be, wouldn't they?), but they won't give the Irish much trouble. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%


Nov. 7: Navy. The Middies had a very nice 8-5 season in '08 under first year coach Ken Nimuntuukomuntotrklo, and gave the Irish a scare last season in a 27-21 ND win. But Navy has to replace all their top offensive weapons from '08 (rushing, passing receiving). They will play valiantly but lose to ND @ ND. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%


Nov. 14: @Pittsburgh. The third toughest game on the schedule, Notre Dame lost at home to the Panthers last season in quadruple overtime, 33-36, blowing a game they led 17-3 at halftime. This year the game is in Pittsburgh. The Panthers return nine offensive starters (but not LeSean McCoy), and four defensive starters (but not defensive leader Scott McKillop). It should be a real tester for the Irish on the road, but hopefully the desire to atone for last season's embarrassing collapse will be the difference. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%

Nov. 21: Connecticut. The Huskies lose their top rusher (Donald Brown, 2083 yards in '08) and starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen 48.8 pct., 869 yds passing) off a team that went 8-5 with a Bowl win last season. Starting at quarterback for U-Conn in '09 is a familar face - former Notre Dame QB Zach Frazer, who was 46 of 83 (55.4%) for 536 yds, 2 TDs and 6 INTs for the Huskies in '08. You may recall that Zach was the first big recruit to commit to Coach Weis after he took over at Notre Dame. Upon his transfer out of the program I wrote:

I can only wish Zach all the best. When they write the book on the Charlie Weis era, Zach Frazer should have a small chapter in it all to himself, as he was a pivotal character in the Weis story. Zach was the first big recruit landed by Coach Weis. Zach was the answer to the question: Will this former NFL assistant coach be able to bring premiere talent into the Notre Dame program when competing against experienced college head coaches in the recruiting wars? Zach Frazer was a high school junior with a big arm, big numbers, and big hype. He was rated four stars at both Rivals.com and Scout.com. His verbal commitment sent shock waves throughout the Notre Dame community and throughout college football. It served notice that Coach Weis was a serious, energetic, and aggressive recruiter. No longer would Notre Dame wait, and wait, and wait before finally tendering offers to 4- and 5-star athletes. From now on, we were going to get into the hunt early and force other programs to play catch up. With one verbal commitment from Zach Frazer, Coach Weis (and Zach) changed the perception of Notre Dame's talent level. Zach took the Irish from being a program of mostly 3-star talent with some 4-star athletes sprinkled in, to being a program with 4-star talent sprinkling in some 5-star players. After his verbal commitment, Zach continued to help build the program by actively recruiting other top talent to come to Notre Dame. [...] Prior to the arrival of Charlie Weis, Notre Dame was losing 1- 2- and 3-star quarterbacks to transfer when they learned they either weren't going to be the starter (LoVecchio) or weren't going to be the primary back-up QB (Wolke, Olsen). Notre Dame now expects to lose a 4-star quarterback who can't crack the top 3 positions on the depth chart. That is a dramatic change, and we ironically owe that change, at least in part, to Zach Frazer.

Frazer's 2 TD / 6 INT ratio last season is worth noting, since interceptions were a problem for him at Notre Dame as well. In the 2007 Blue & Gold game Zach was 0 for 4 with an INT, which set the table for his departure from South Bend. I'm guessing Coach Weis will be able to find some Zach Frazer videotape for Coach Tenuta to digest in preparation for the U-Conn game. U-Conn comes to Notre Dame after a bye week and they will be looking to get a BIG win for their rising program. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Nov. 28: @Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh has brought some toughness (one might say dirty play) to the Farm, and Stanford is no gimme for anyone. Notre Dame beat the Cardinal 28-21 in '08 in Notre Dame Stadium, so a road game against a team that returns 17 starters from last season, including all the key playmakers, is no picnic. Still, it is Stanford, who will be hosting the Irish the week after hosting the Cal Bears in the annual "Big Game." There's a significant chance that Stanford could have a letdown when Notre Dame shows up. This game reminds me of the 2005 game between these two teams. Brady Quinn's Notre Dame squad was highly ranked and traveling to Palo Alto in need of a win to secure a berth in a BCS Bowl game. The game was a real battle, with the Irish coming out on top 38-31 and on their way to the Fiesta Bowl to face Ohio State. The '09 ND v. Stanford game could have similar implications. If Notre Dame has the kind of season they are capable of having, a win against the Cardinal could punch their ticket to a BCS Bowl game. In that case, I would expect ND to be very motivated, and to be playing very well if they are in that position. Stanford would be pesky but ultimately no match for Notre Dame. If, however, Notre Dame does not live up to expectations and needs a win against Stanford to earn a trip to a lesser bow game, and if Stanford could improve their bowl outlook with a big win, this game could be close again. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Conclusion: You've already heard all about the predictions of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook, who each have Notre Dame playing in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, so I'm not sure what else I can add. I am as optimistic as any Notre Dame fan, but even I don't predict an appearance in the Championship game. To get there would require a 12-0 season, which of course means beating USC, which I personally think is only about a 40% possibility. I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.