Notre Dame Shaking Down the Thunder in 2009

Put up or shut up. That seems to be the consensus among the Irish faithful and the college football cognoscenti regarding Notre Dame's 2009 football season. The Irish return almost the entire offense from a year ago, led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a junior heading into his third year as a starting QB who completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards last year with a 25/17 TD/INT ratio. Clausen will be playing behind an offensive line that has already amassed 100 career starts between them, which puts them among the most experienced offensive lines in the country. That line experience should translate into time to throw the ball for Clausen, and a new offensive line coach, Frank Verducci, will hopefully mean improved O-line play in the running game.

If Clausen does have time to throw, and he should, that means trouble for opposing secondaries. With Golden Tate and 2008 OC Domer Player of the Year Michael Floyd at wide receiver and Kyle Rudolph at tight end, Notre Dame has among the best receiving corps in the nation. All three players can stretch the field (they average 18.6, 15.0, and 11.7 yards per catch, respectively); none can be effectively covered by a single defender. And you can't double-cover all of them. If these three stay healthy, Clausen and the Irish offense should put up Brady Quinn-esque numbers in 2009. Tate, Floyd and Rudolph are complemented most notably by junior Duval Kamara (who has terrific size but needs to have a bounce-back year) and freshman Shaquelle Evans who has looked impressive in camp and is really pushing for early playing time.

The ability to stretch the field with the passing game should really benefit the Irish running game, led by 2008 leading rusher Armando Allen (134 carries for 585 yards; 50 receptions for 355 yds), who has been announced as the clear starter by Coach Weis. Allen will be accompanied in the backfield by James Aldridge (91 carries for 357 yds in '08), now the starter at fullback. Robert Hughes (112 carries for 382 yds in '08) will be first to spell Allen, but sophomore Jonas Gray and exciting freshman Cierre Wood will both see carries in 2009. The expectations with the running game are that the vertical threat of the passing game prevent defenses from stacking 8 defenders at the line of scrimmage, thus giving the running backs some room to work. Key will be whether the new offensive line coach can solve the short-yardage woes that have plagued Charlie Weis' offense since he arrived in South Bend. If these experienced backs, running behind an experienced group of linemen, can finally be counted on to reliably move the sticks in short yardage situations, thus sustaining drives and keeping our defense fresh, Notre Dame fans should be treated to a very enjoyable year.

In the off-season Charlie Weis shuffled the duties of his coaching staff a bit (he now has an associate head coach and two assistant head coaches), but the most significant result is that Jon Tenuta is now the defensive coordinator. Most expect that this will therefore be an aggressive, attacking defense that attempts to dictate the tempo of the game to opposing offenses and keep opponents back on their heels. In some respects the approach can be high risk - high reward, as the frequent blitzes Tenuta employs leaves defensive backs working in single coverage. Fortunately, the Irish secondary looks to be top-notch this year and should be more than capable of handling the assignment. The loss of safety David Bruton to the Denver Broncos will certainly be felt, but safeties Kyle McCarthy (110 tackles in 2008, most ever by an Irish defensive back) and Harrison Smith (57 tackles in '08 was 4th on the team) should fill in ably. Notre Dame is deep at the corners, led by Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton. If teams are going to move the ball on Notre Dame, it will not be through the air.

As in previous seasons, the concern with the Irish defense is up front. Once again, D-line is considered to be talented and scrappy, but probably a bit undersized. Nose Tackle Ian Williams weighs in just north of 300 lbs, but the other projected starting defensive tackle, the very disruptive Ethan Johnson, weighs just 275 lbs. The defensive ends, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal weigh in at 265 and 246 lbs. These players are all well suited to Jon Tenuta's aggressive defensive system, but it remains to be seen how stout they can be against teams that are content to run the ball straight at you. The defensive front seven have to show the ability to take on blockers heads-up and stuff a hole. The past two seasons have seen too many defenders trying to run around blocks, leaving big seams for opposing ball carriers to run through until a defensive back came up to make a tackle.

The top tackler among defensive linemen last season was the departed Pat Kuntz, whose 42 was 6th best on the team. The next D-lineman in tackles was nose tackle Ian Williams with 40 (8th best in '08). Digest that for a minute. Notre Dame's top five tacklers in 2008 did not include a defensive lineman. You might argue that it's the scheme, that the D-line is supposed to occupy blockers and let the linebackers run to the ball. I'd buy that, if the stats backed it up. But the top two tacklers for ND last season weren't linebackers. They were safeties. And it wasn't close. Kyle McCarthy led all Irish defenders with 110, David Bruton was 2nd with 97. Linebacker Maurice Crum was a distant third with just 65 tackles. Notre Dame's front seven needs to be much more effective this year stopping the run, so that the defensive backfield can worry less about run support and concentrate instead on defending the pass.

While the loss of Maurice Crum's leadership in the middle of the defense will be felt, the fact is that the guys replacing Crum are much more talented. Super-recruit Manti Te'o will get on the field early, likely playing alongside junior Brian Smith and sophomore Darius Fleming, although the competition for starting linebacker jobs is intense this season, and that's a good thing. Whoever plays, the linebackers have to step up this year in both stopping the run without DB help and in getting home and sacking opposing quarterbacks on Coach Tentuta's blitzes.

On special teams, freshman Nick Tausch came into camp and took control of the kicker position, winning both the kick-off job and the place-kicking job. I am very anxious to see the young man kick. Lack of a consistent place-kicker has plagued the Irish for two seasons, and the inability to kick the ball into the end zone for touchbacks has been frustrating. If Nick Tausch can bring Notre Dame's not-so-special teams up from "awful" to "average" it will be a big boost to Irish fortunes in 2009. Eric Maust remains the ND punter.

So how do I see this team shaping up in 2009? As I wrote in an earlier post:

With respect to Notre Dame football, there just isn't much uncertainty this year, other than the ultimate uncertainty of how many wins the Irish will put in the books. [...] For 2009, there just aren't many unknowns. The players in 2009 are almost without exception the same guys we watched lose at home to Syracuse and then win impressively in Hawaii. Same quarterback, same running backs, same linemen, same receivers. Same defensive players, with the exception of an opening at linebacker and an opening at safety.

So, given that we're going to see what is essentially the same group of players, each of them a year older, a year more mature (physically and emotionally), a year more experienced, what can we realistically expect?

The 2008 Fighting Irish posted a 6-win, 6-loss regular season and had a dominating performance in winning the Hawaii Bowl 49-21. That's a 7-6 overall record. Digging just a little deeper, however, one quickly learns that the 2008 squad, from a talent perspective, should have posted a 9-3 regular season record. The losses to Michigan State (argh), Boston College and USC were never really in doubt. But ND blew double digit leads against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. A team with a little more experience, and a little more maturity, doesn't lose those games in 2008. So while they fully earned their 6-6 mark, from a talent and ability standpoint the Irish were arguably playing at the level of a 9-3 squad.

Is it unreasonable to expect the 2009 Fighting Irish, with the added maturity and experience, to play at least at that 9-3 level this season? I do not think that's unreasonable at all. And that's before you even begin to look at the 2009 schedule.

Let's go ahead and look at that schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).


Sept. 5: Nevada. The danger in this game is that the Irish fail to take this good team from the wacky WAC seriously enough while looking ahead to the Michigan game. In 2008 the Wolf Pack's offense was potent and balanced, led by QB Colin Kaepernick who is a true dual threat with 1,100 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing last season. 2009 will be his third season as a starting QB. The Irish defense's speed and athleticism should be able to slow Kaepernick enough to allow Jimmy Clausen and the ND offense to win the game by scoring at will against a poor Nevada defense whose main weakness is in the secondary. Key to the game will be the Irish defense getting off the field on 3rd Down and the Notre Dame offense controlling the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. (Isn't that always the key?). The point is, Nevada is dangerous and if you don't take care of business they are good enough to ruin your entire season in Week 1. I will be watching this game closely to see if the 2009 Irish dominate a less talented team like they should, rather than playing down to the level of the opponent and keeping the game "interesting" far longer than they should (see: 2008 season opener against San Diego State). Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%

Sept. 12: @Michigan. It was a party in Notre Dame Stadium as the Fighting Irish blew out the Wolverines in what must have been a cathartic 35-17 victory following the travesty that was 2007. While Notre Dame looked impressive that day, they were helped by 6 UM turnovers and actually had some problems slowing down the Wolverine running game in the person of Sam McGuffie. I expect UM to cut down on the turnovers and put up a better fight in the Big House, but they are still in a serious re-building mode and are expected to start a freshman at quarterback. Add to their already substantial problems the exploding controversy about the Wolverines and Dick Rod being a bunch of cheaters and I expect UM to be distracted and confused enough for the Irish to get a nice road win in a physical game. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Sept. 19: Sparty. I hate those guys. Coach Weis is 1-3 against Michigan State which, to coin a phrase, is not good enough. In 2007 MSU beat ND by 17 pts. In 2008 the margin was 16 pts. This is not progress. Notre Dame's problems against Sparty have been in the trenches. MSU has been more physical than the Irish on both sides of the ball and that has told the tale. ND has been unable to run the ball with any success, and has had difficulty contending with the Spartan power rushing attack. This game will be an important test against a very good team. Will the experienced Irish O-line finally be able to assert itself in the running game? Will the Irish front seven on defense be able to man up and compete with MSU's power game? MSU will be a very good team and probably the second toughest game on the Irish schedule. But Sparty will badly miss the leadership of talented QB Brian Hoyer and the production of RB Javon Ringer. Irish win a battle at home. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%

Sept. 26: @Purdue. Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 last season. Purdue's top three rushers, top two passers, and top two receivers from that team are gone, to be replaced by untested players led a by a first year head coach. The defense does return a lot of experience, and talent, but Purdue is going to have a tough year. The Irish defense should force some turnovers and lead Notre Dame to a convincing win in West Lafayette. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%






Oct. 3: Washington. The once proud Huskies were winless in 2008 and own a 14-game losing streak. But they got rid of Coach Tyrone Willingham and brought in former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to be the new head coach. No doubt they will eventually get better, but the Irish crushed UW last year 33-7 in Seattle, and one would have to expect a similar result when the Huskies visit Notre Dame Stadium in '09. Sarkisian will have the team playing with more heart and pride, no doubt, but even with touted QB Jake Locker healthy again, Notre Dame fans know all too well how hard it can be to overcome a Ty Willingham-created talent deficiency. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%

Oct. 10: -Bye-. Great spot for the bye week. Five games played and USC next up on the schedule. Gives the coaches and players a chance to re-group, get healthy, and take some time to prepare for the Trojans.

Oct. 17: USC. Toughest game on the schedule, again. It's great to get USC in Notre Dame Stadium. Unfortunately the Trojans are coming off a bye week as well. But they may well need it, having already played Ohio State and Cal, both on the road. A third tough road trip this early in the season could have the boys of Troy feeling a little ragged. Of course, USC is loaded, particularly at running back and receiver. But they just announced that true freshman Matt Barkley will be the starter at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. Recalling last year's painful game in the Coliseum, the Notre Dame defense actually played pretty respectably against the Mark Sanchez led Trojan offense. But the complete inability of the Irish to move the ball meant the defense was on the field all night, usually with their backs against the wall. Given the loss of so many 2008 Trojan defensive players, the Irish offense should fare better in 2009 (It really hurt that Michael Floyd was injured and unable to play against USC in '08). Likewise, the Irish defense should have more success this year playing against a true freshman at QB. I still can't predict an Irish victory, given that the gap between the two programs is too wide to close in the space of one season. Two things can really help Irish chances in this game. First, the students MUST go to the game. October 17 falls on the first weekend of Fall break, and it would be tough to win the game if the students go home for break and leave empty seats in the stadium. The team will be pumped up if everyone stays for the game and gets LOUD. Second, pray for snow. Or at least a really miserable cold, rainy day. Those Southern California kids HATE the cold. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 40% (i.e., 40% chance of Irish win)

Oct. 24: Boston College. My irritation at losing to Boston College (6 straight) is probably second only to my irritation at losing to Sparty. BC has a new head coach, although he's been in the program for a while, in Frank Spaziani. They do return some experience for '09 (13 or 14 starters depending upon who you read), but will be breaking in a new quarterback and installing a new offesnive system. The Irish lost to the eagles at BC in '08 by a 17-0 score, in a lackluster game featuring awful playing conditions and reportedly an Irish QB battling the flu. Despite the score, ND had more yards and more first downs than BC, but Jimmy Clausen threw four interceptions that killed off any chance te Irish had of scoring. Bring this game home to the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium (and hopefully in front of the students on Fall break who stayed on campus or came back early to cheer on the team), eliminate the INTs, and sprinkle in a little payback, and Notre Dame should FINALLY get over the hump against the Eagles. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Oct. 31: Washington State (@ San Antonio). That's right, San Antonio. wtf? Presumably, a lot of die-hard Notre Dame fans living in or near Texas will pack the Alamo Dome (or wherever the game is being played), giving the Irish a nice "home field" avantage for this neutral site game. I am also presuming that Charlie Weis will be using this game as a showcase of the program for Texas-based high school recruits and potential recruits. Otherwise this game makes no sense to me. All that said, the Cougars beat Portland State and Washington last season (in OT, at home). They lost every other game, most of them by very ugly lopsided scores. They'll be better this year (they would have to be, wouldn't they?), but they won't give the Irish much trouble. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%


Nov. 7: Navy. The Middies had a very nice 8-5 season in '08 under first year coach Ken Nimuntuukomuntotrklo, and gave the Irish a scare last season in a 27-21 ND win. But Navy has to replace all their top offensive weapons from '08 (rushing, passing receiving). They will play valiantly but lose to ND @ ND. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%


Nov. 14: @Pittsburgh. The third toughest game on the schedule, Notre Dame lost at home to the Panthers last season in quadruple overtime, 33-36, blowing a game they led 17-3 at halftime. This year the game is in Pittsburgh. The Panthers return nine offensive starters (but not LeSean McCoy), and four defensive starters (but not defensive leader Scott McKillop). It should be a real tester for the Irish on the road, but hopefully the desire to atone for last season's embarrassing collapse will be the difference. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%

Nov. 21: Connecticut. The Huskies lose their top rusher (Donald Brown, 2083 yards in '08) and starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen 48.8 pct., 869 yds passing) off a team that went 8-5 with a Bowl win last season. Starting at quarterback for U-Conn in '09 is a familar face - former Notre Dame QB Zach Frazer, who was 46 of 83 (55.4%) for 536 yds, 2 TDs and 6 INTs for the Huskies in '08. You may recall that Zach was the first big recruit to commit to Coach Weis after he took over at Notre Dame. Upon his transfer out of the program I wrote:

I can only wish Zach all the best. When they write the book on the Charlie Weis era, Zach Frazer should have a small chapter in it all to himself, as he was a pivotal character in the Weis story. Zach was the first big recruit landed by Coach Weis. Zach was the answer to the question: Will this former NFL assistant coach be able to bring premiere talent into the Notre Dame program when competing against experienced college head coaches in the recruiting wars? Zach Frazer was a high school junior with a big arm, big numbers, and big hype. He was rated four stars at both Rivals.com and Scout.com. His verbal commitment sent shock waves throughout the Notre Dame community and throughout college football. It served notice that Coach Weis was a serious, energetic, and aggressive recruiter. No longer would Notre Dame wait, and wait, and wait before finally tendering offers to 4- and 5-star athletes. From now on, we were going to get into the hunt early and force other programs to play catch up. With one verbal commitment from Zach Frazer, Coach Weis (and Zach) changed the perception of Notre Dame's talent level. Zach took the Irish from being a program of mostly 3-star talent with some 4-star athletes sprinkled in, to being a program with 4-star talent sprinkling in some 5-star players. After his verbal commitment, Zach continued to help build the program by actively recruiting other top talent to come to Notre Dame. [...] Prior to the arrival of Charlie Weis, Notre Dame was losing 1- 2- and 3-star quarterbacks to transfer when they learned they either weren't going to be the starter (LoVecchio) or weren't going to be the primary back-up QB (Wolke, Olsen). Notre Dame now expects to lose a 4-star quarterback who can't crack the top 3 positions on the depth chart. That is a dramatic change, and we ironically owe that change, at least in part, to Zach Frazer.

Frazer's 2 TD / 6 INT ratio last season is worth noting, since interceptions were a problem for him at Notre Dame as well. In the 2007 Blue & Gold game Zach was 0 for 4 with an INT, which set the table for his departure from South Bend. I'm guessing Coach Weis will be able to find some Zach Frazer videotape for Coach Tenuta to digest in preparation for the U-Conn game. U-Conn comes to Notre Dame after a bye week and they will be looking to get a BIG win for their rising program. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Nov. 28: @Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh has brought some toughness (one might say dirty play) to the Farm, and Stanford is no gimme for anyone. Notre Dame beat the Cardinal 28-21 in '08 in Notre Dame Stadium, so a road game against a team that returns 17 starters from last season, including all the key playmakers, is no picnic. Still, it is Stanford, who will be hosting the Irish the week after hosting the Cal Bears in the annual "Big Game." There's a significant chance that Stanford could have a letdown when Notre Dame shows up. This game reminds me of the 2005 game between these two teams. Brady Quinn's Notre Dame squad was highly ranked and traveling to Palo Alto in need of a win to secure a berth in a BCS Bowl game. The game was a real battle, with the Irish coming out on top 38-31 and on their way to the Fiesta Bowl to face Ohio State. The '09 ND v. Stanford game could have similar implications. If Notre Dame has the kind of season they are capable of having, a win against the Cardinal could punch their ticket to a BCS Bowl game. In that case, I would expect ND to be very motivated, and to be playing very well if they are in that position. Stanford would be pesky but ultimately no match for Notre Dame. If, however, Notre Dame does not live up to expectations and needs a win against Stanford to earn a trip to a lesser bow game, and if Stanford could improve their bowl outlook with a big win, this game could be close again. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Conclusion: You've already heard all about the predictions of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook, who each have Notre Dame playing in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, so I'm not sure what else I can add. I am as optimistic as any Notre Dame fan, but even I don't predict an appearance in the Championship game. To get there would require a 12-0 season, which of course means beating USC, which I personally think is only about a 40% possibility. I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.

Navy Sinks Irish Dreams of 5-7 Season

I am 43 years old. Roger Staubach led the Midshipmen of the United States Naval Academy to a stirring win over Notre Dame in 1963, just a few months before I was born. Navy had not beaten Notre Dame in a football game in my whole life, until yesterday. Am I sorely disappointed? Of course I am. Not quite as ticked off as this guy - but pretty unhappy. [EDIT: The link to BGS now goes to very toned-down assessment of Coach Weis' play calling. The original rant was an all-time classic, but Jay has decided not to leave it up as a permanent part of the BGS historical record. If you missed it, well, that's a shame. It was probably a little overwrought, but is was darn funny too.]

On the other hand, if I had to write a list of the teams I hate losing to the most, I'd probably run out of ink or get writer's cramp before I put down "Navy." The loss hurts, but in this season alone I'd rank each of our seven other losses well ahead of Navy in terms of personal bitterness.

1. USC
2. Michigan State
3. Boston College
4. Purdue
   
5. Michigan
6. Penn State
   
7. Georgia Tech

I feel bad for the Notre Dame players who, as a group, probably played their best game of the year and still came up short in front of the home fans. I don't feel bad for Irish football fans. As this horrendous year has ground on, I have begun to notice more and more of a whiny, entitled tone creeping into the writing in the Notre Dame blogosphere. "How dare Coach Weis and his players lose to Navy! We're Notre Dame after all. We're entitled to win ten games every year and go to a BCS Bowl."

Calm down, people - it isn't always about you. The Notre Dame football players and coaches want to win more than anyone. And they're working their asses off to make it happen. It isn't yielding much in the way of results right now, but at 1-8 (even when it was only 1-7) you have to write this season off. As I wrote last week, the 2007 season is over. The four games starting with Navy are pre-season games in the 2008 season. These games are about developing our talent and depth so that the Irish can return next season to their rightful place in the football Universe. While still hoping for a win, I was keeping my eye on Chris Stewart getting lots of reps at right tackle. I was watching James Aldridge and Armando Allen learn how to run at the Division I level. I was watching Sam Young, Eric Olsen, and Brian Smith get their work in, mistakes and all, to get better for next year. And because these games are not about the now but really about the future, I fully expect to see Jimmy Clausen worked back into the mix and established as the starting quarterback by season's end. Because Evan Sharpley is serviceable at QB, but he is not the Irish future at QB.


Perhaps I am more patient than many because I attended Notre Dame for four years of the Gerry Faust era, when we lost four straight to Air Force. I am willing to forgive Coach Weis this season, boneheaded game-management decisions and all, because I do believe he is bringing in the quality players Notre Dame needs to get back to the top. I'll give him one Mulligan. But if 2008 looks anything like what we have seen in 2007, Coach Weis can pack his bags.

What did I see in yesterday's game? My first thought was that the offense, while not perfect, played well enough to win the game. I felt that the biggest problem was that the defense could not stop Navy. The "D" couldn't get off the field by forcing a punt or some turnovers. This greatly magnified the importance of each possession by the Irish offense and eliminated any margin for error. When there is no margin for error, the game can turn on any play.

Taking a closer look at the numbers after the game, I realized that it was more complicated than that. While the offense was generally very good (leaps and bounds better than any other game this year), they did fail to produce at several key points in the game, whether through poor play calling or poor execution.

My brief observations:

• Each team missed one field goal attempt.
  
• Each team lost one fumble. Navy turned the Irish turnover into seven points. Notre Dame failed to score after Navy lost a fumble at their own 30 yard line, turning the ball back over to Navy on downs after a ridiculous fake field goal attempt.
• Navy did not punt until 2:23 remaining in the fourth quarter.
  
• Notre Dame had more first downs than Navy (27-23), more total yards than Navy (375-228), and held the ball longer than Navy (30:41 to 29:19), essentially beating Navy at their own game.
• Notre Dame was 9 of 19 in 3rd down conversions (47.37%) while Navy was 9 of 16 (56.25%).
• Notre Dame was 6 of 8 in 4th down conversions. Each failure was huge: (1) the fake field goal attempt that ended the Irish drive on a short field following the Navy fumble, (2) the fourth down at the end of the game where Coach Weis decided that he preferred the odds of converting a 4th and 8 over the chances hitting a 41-yard field goal. The fact that the Irish offense attempted to convert 8 times on fourth downs tells me a couple of things: (1) Although the Irish "O" had a good game overall, they weren't consistently overpowering Navy on downs 1 through 3, and (2) Coach Weis had very little confidence that the Irish "D" could slow down Navy's offense.
• Without ever punting the ball, Notre Dame played the field-position game very well. Notre Dame's average starting field position was it's own 43 yard line. Navy's average starting field position was it's own 27.
• Navy had five sacks on the season before yesterday, but got four against the Irish.

I also have some non-statistical thoughts. When Navy was FINALLY forced to punt the ball to the Irish at 2:23 of the fourth quarter, and Zibby had a very nice return of the punt to the Navy 38 yard line, I knew the Irish were going to win. We had just scored on a 14-play, 76 yard drive that featured James Aldridge and Armando Allen running the ball very effectively, plus an amazing throw and catch from Sharpley to John Carlson. The "O" was hitting on all cylinders. Putting the field goal decision aside for a moment, all I could think at the time was "Why is he throwing the ball to David Grimes?" Duval Kamara had been amazing all game long, John Carlson was looking like himself again, even Robby Parris had been effective. What has Grimes done this year that convinced Coach Weis to put the ball in his hands on the potential game-winning drive? (Answer: Nothing.)

My other thought relates to Travis Thomas. I didn't watch the game live yesterday, as I had to help the OC Daughter with a school function. When I got home, the only highlight of the game I caught before watching the game myself was the failed two-point conversion in the 3rd OT. And I screamed at my TV "Why are you giving the ball to Travis Thomas in that situation?" It's clear that Coach Weis likes TT at the goal line. It's also clear that he is very loyal to his senior captains. But at some point you have to think that James Aldridge and Armando Allen are going to get tired of TT cherry-picking the touchdowns after they have pounded the ball down the field. In the second quarter the Irish had a 12-play, 46 yard TD drive. Aldridge was the feature back on the drive with carries of 13, 4, -4, 3 and 4 yards. That's tough sledding. With the ball down to the 1 yard line after a 4-yard run by Aldridge on 2nd-and-goal, Thomas comes in a gets a 1-yard TD run. Same thing in the fourth quarter. On a 14-play, 76 yard TD drive, Aldridge had carries of 4, 5, 3, and 0 yards, while Allen had carries for 15, 13, 6, 6, 5 and 4 that put the ball at Navy's 3. Thomas then came in and ran for a 3-yard TD. Coach Weis may have very good reasons, based upon what he sees at practice, to use TT in goal line situations. As for myself, I'd like to see what Aldridge or Robert Hughes can do.

Grading the game, I'd give the offense a solid "B." They generally moved the ball very well, and had their best production of the year. The Sharpley fumble and some pass protection issues keeps the grade from being any higher.

I give the defense a "D" for this game. It's not that they didn't play hard. They just couldn't stop the Middies. They forced only one turnover, and didn't force a punt until very late in the game. They surrendered an average of 4.5 yards per play.

Special Teams get a "C". Kick and punt returns were very solid, but our kick-offs and kick coverage was poor. Notre Dame's first kick-off pinned Navy at the 10. Subsequent Irish kick-offs gave Navy starting field position at the 37, 32, 34, and 35 yard lines. Add a missed field goal attempt and failed fake field goal play, and a "C" is probably generous.

Coaching gets an "F". You have to beat Navy. Your defense has to stop that damned option play and get the ball back. You don't run a fake field goal on 4th and 15 in easy field goal range. You don't forego even a long filed goal attempt to win the game on 4th and 8.

Finally: I was glad to see Robert Hughes score the first Irish touchdown and get to keep the ball. That ball is small consolation for the loss of his brother this week, but hopefully he will always have it as a reminder that he is part of the Notre Dame family and that our prayers go out to him and his family at this very difficult time, no matter what happens on the football field.

Go Irish! Beat Falcons!

Navy is no "Gimme"

Much has been written about the historical significance of the Notre Dame v. Navy game. Count me among those who are proud that Our Lady's University honors the Navy's contributions to the University by continuing to schedule the Middies in football.

Before the season began, I think I was in agreement with everyone else in the Universe that, however the Irish might fare over the first eight games, at least we had "four easy wins" lined up for November. Here is the entirety of my pre-season analysis of the Navy game:

I think it's good that we continue to honor Navy because of all they did for Notre Dame during the war years. But Coach Weis doesn't fool around with these lesser foes. The Irish beat the Middies soundly but respectfully, 35-10.

What's amazing to me is how this unshakable faith in the "four easy wins" has persisted despite Notre Dame's 1-7 record and our historically poor offensive production. How, exactly, are we going to beat these next four teams "easily"? WE CAN'T MOVE THE FOOTBALL! WE CAN'T SCORE ANY POINTS! WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO GET A FIRST DOWN!

Navy, on the other hand, has been among the most prolific teams in the country at moving the football and scoring points. Normally you'd have to like the chances of a football team that is really good at scoring playing against a team that is really inept at scoring, wouldn't you? If you put both teams in white helmets and gray pants, played the game in Dogpatch State University's Stadium, and didn't tell anyone that one team had beaten another for 43 straight years, you'd have to favor Navy by two touchdowns based upon the numbers, wouldn't you?

Let's look at those numbers:

The Navy Offense. The Middies average 342 rushing yards per game, which ranks them #1 in the country. They generate 450 yards per game in total offense, good for a #16 ranking. Opposing that offense this weekend is the Notre Dame defense which ranks #93 in the country against the run, and #57 in total defense. In compiling their #1 ranking in rushing, Navy has only played one opponent (Ball State) which ranks worse than Notre Dame in rush defense. Rutgers has the 58th best rushing defense, and they surrendered 254 net rushing yards to Navy. Wake Forest has the 34th best run defense, and they gave up 328 net rushing yards to Navy. The point is, Navy has played run defenses ranked much better than #93 in compiling their gaudy rushing totals.

The Irish Defense. How has the Irish defense managed to sink to #93 against the run? The short answer appears to be: They have played some pretty good teams. The first eight games of the schedule had Notre Dame playing teams with the following rankings in rushing offense (as of today): 13, 32, 22, 18, 72, 43, 85, and 27. When you factor into the schedule the facts that (1) Notre Dame's offense has been unable to control the ball, thus leaving the defense out on the field for too long, and (2) Many Irish opponents ran the ball heavily late in games to run out the clock and preserve big leads, it isn't surprising that our rush "D" numbers don't look good. It's pure conjecture, but you have to figure that our rushing "D" numbers would be much better (though not great) if the defense was getting any help from the offense.

Navy "O" versus Irish "D". There's no getting around the fact that Navy runs the ball exceedingly well, using their option package. Their rushing numbers are not a fluke, they weren't compiled against patsies. Notre Dame's defense has been vulnerable to the run all year. What gives me some reason for optimism is that Notre Dame's problems defending the run this year have been more about physical match-ups than assignments and scheme. Certainly there have been some busted assignments. But the bigger problem has been bigger opponents. Although Trevor Laws and Pat Kuntz & Co. have played their hearts out this year, they have frequently just been overmatched physically when facing power running teams. Against Navy, our defensive front seven, perhaps for the first time this season, figures to be more physical and athletic than the offensive line they are facing. Therefore, we should have fewer problems with getting blown off the ball or shoved out of the hole than we have to date. This means that if our guys make their reads we should be able to slow Navy down a little. We'll still have problems when our inside linebackers need to get to the edge - because at times they have proven themselves too slow to contain the outside run when the defensive call requires it. We'll blow some reads and miss some tackles. But as the game wears on Law and Kuntz and friends will wear down the Navy O-line and start disrupting plays in the backfield. That's when we'll see some turnovers that will help the Irish win the game, if we're still in it.

The Navy Defense. Navy's defense ranks 105th in the country, surrendering 459 yards per game. The current offensive rankings of Navy's eight opponents are: 102, 13, 22, 114, 72, 97, 90, and 3. That's an average ranking of #64. Clearly, Navy has been pushed around by some pretty pedestrian competition, even teams with horrible offensive rankings (Duke at 114, Pitt at 97, Wake Forest at 90) amassed over 400 yards against Navy.

The Irish Offense. It's been well documented that Notre dame's offense is dead last (#119) in the country. We haven't run, we haven't passed. But, our schedule really has been brutal. The current total defense rankings for our eight opponents are: 7, 12, 21, 36, 56, 42, 20, and 4. That averages out to a ranking of 24.75. Thus, on average, Notre Dame's offense has played every game against a Top 25 defense. It's not surprising that our young offense has struggled against such quality competition. The "worst" defense we faced was Purdue (#56), and the Irish actually outgained the Boilermakers. The next worst defense was UCLA (#42), who we beat.

Irish "O" versus Navy "D". Unlike the Irish defense, which has struggled this year because of poor physical match-ups, Notre Dame's offensive woes have not been "match-up" problems. The problems on offense have been assignments and scheme, and unforced errors. The offensive line has been confused about who to block. Defensive linemen and linebackers have been running loose in the Irish backfield untouched. The pulling guard has been running right past the defender who, naturally, makes a tackle behind the line of scrimmage. The quarterbacks haven't spotted John Carlson wide open at the sideline. Or the ball has been poorly thrown, or dropped. If you're letting a linebacker get a free run at your quarterback, it matters little that the linebacker is 5' 10" and 175 lbs instead of 6' 2" and 210 lbs. Thus, while one would expect the larger, more athletic Notre Dame players to simply run over Navy's defense, it isn't that simple. IF the O-line can pick up the right guys, they should be able to block them. IF the fullback can spot the blitzing linebacker, he should be able to handle him. IF the QB can read the coverage correctly, he should be able to find a wide open receiver for a touchdown, IF he can throw a decent ball. Even with a decided physical advantage, there a lot of mental IFs. If the Irish offense has a good MENTAL game, they should easily put up their best performance of the year. I expect to see "simple" from the Irish offense. Simple blocking schemes in the running game should allow Aldridge, Allen and Hughes to pick up big chunks of yards. I expect that this is the week we see what Armando Allen can really do - all he needs is a step and the Navy defenders won't b able to catch him. In the passing game, we'll see max protection and let Duval Kamara, Golden Tate, and John Carlson make plays against Navy's overmatched DBs. It's a key fact that Navy is ranked 118th in QB sacks - with 5 total for the year. Thus Evan Sharpley will actually have time to survey the field and throw those deep balls he is so fond of.

Bottom line. Navy is going to move the ball on Notre Dame. The option scheme will cause the Irish defenders some problems early and Navy will get a couple of early scores. But by about half-time the defense will have figured it out, and we'll start disrupting the option and forcing turnovers later in the game. The Irish offense will start slow, with a conservative running game used to establish some rhythm and some confidence. We'll answer the Navy scores with long drives of our own in the first half. By the middle of the second quarter, with our confidence growing, the gloves come off and Evan will start slinging the ball around the yard. We'll lead by a touchdown at half time, and by three touchdowns at the end of the third quarter. Coach Weis will take his foot off the gas at that point and empty the bench. Each team scores again and the Irish win 42-17.