Trojan Excuses Are B.S.

I just have to get something off my chest about the USC Trojans.  Living in Orange County, we get a lot of Trojan talk.  All Trojan talk, all the time.

In the wake of USC's humbling loss at Stanford on Saturday, Head Coach Lane Kiffin was not very subtle in blaming the lack of offensive production on the fact that USC's starting center Khaled Holmes was not available to play due to an injury.  Kiffin said that Stanford was the worst team on their schedule to play without their All-American center.

I call bullshit.

1.  All teams have to deal with injuries.  Half of Notre Dame's starting defensive backfield is now lost for the year due to a couple of blown Achilles tendons, just to name one random example off the top of my head.  Losing one offensive lineman hardly seems adequate explanation for the utter ineffectiveness of what the media were proclaiming just a week ago to be the greatest offensive football team of all time!  "Nine players from USC's offense will be playing football on Sundays" declared one pundit.  If USC was really as awesome as everyone says (Pre-season #1!), the loss of one lineman wouldn't be that big of a deal.  So maybe USC isn't as great as everyone says?

2.  Holmes' injury wasn't a surprise.  He didn't get hurt during the coin toss.  The Trojan coaching staff has known for at least week that he was hurt and probably wouldn't be able to play.  The media asked questions about Holmes' status all week.  So Kiffin & Co. had plenty of time to come up with a plan to deal with the situation.  The problem is, whatever plan Kiffin came up with didn't work.  The plan, assuming they had a plan, failed miserably.  That's a coaching failure.

3.  Kiffin and Trojan Nation have been quick to note that Holmes was replaced at center by "a freshman."  That's baloney.  The backup center is Cyrus Hobbi, who is a red shirt freshman.  In other words, he is really a sophomore.  Graduated high school and started college in 2011.  And he's no slouch.  Hobbi was a 4-star recruit on both Rivals.com and Scout.com, just like Khaled Holmes (who was a 5th-year senior).

4.  Hobbi wasn't playing alone out there.  The tackles on the Trojan O-line are Aundrey Walker (Sophomore, 4-star recruit) and Kevin Graf (red shirt Jr., i.e., a Senior, 4-star recruit).  The guards are Marcus Martin (Sophomore, 3-start recruit) and John Martinez (red shirt Junior, i.e., a Senior, 4-star recruit).  It must be noted that Martinez, who was playing right next to Hobbi, was rated by Scout.com coming out of high school as the #1 prospect in the country AT CENTER.

So Kiffin, faced with the loss of his starting center, is able to pluck yet another 4-star center off the shelf and plug him in among the rest of his 4-star offensive line.  He has at guard an experienced 4-star player who was at one time considered the top center prospect in the country.  But Kiffin can't crack the code of how to get the line calls made against Stanford.  I'm not a genius like Kiffin, but maybe, just maybe, USC could have slid Martinez over to center once Holmes got hurt.  Or maybe leave Hobbi at center, but let Martinez (or even Graf) make the protection calls from the guard (or tackle) position.

That doesn't seem so hard.  So what happened?  Hubris happened.  Despite the fact that USC was 0-3 in their previous three games against the Cardinal, Kiffin didn't respect Stanford enough to think that he needed to change anything to compensate for the loss of Holmes.  He just thought USC would roll into Palo Alto, throw their jocks onto the field, and the Cardinal, playing without Andrew Luck, would roll over.  Kiffin has gotten a lot of mileage about his "prep versus hype" mantra.  But he started reading his own press clippings and he bought into the hype.  He and his staff failed to properly prepare his team and they got whipped.  He can't blame one injury.  He can't blame Matt Barkley.  He can only look in the mirror and blame himself. 

       

Zen and the Art of Irish Blogging

Forgive me Father, for I have not blogged. It has been 261 days since my last post.

With so much happening in and around the Fighting Irish program, how in the world can any self-respecting blogger go silent for 8 months and 19 days? I have been asking myself the same question, off and on, for months.

The answer, I believe, is inner peace. Not inner peace about the world, or America, or even my own personal or professional life. But rather inner peace about the state of Notre Dame football. Over the past 261 days I realized that the reason I wasn't blogging is that I wasn't feeling the urgent need to write that has driven the OC Domer Blog since I started it 1,611 days ago (March 14, 2007). My motivation for blogging has generally been my personal angst about what the Fighting Irish were, and what they weren't.

In the spring of 2007 the Irish were coming off a 10-2 regular season and a Sugar Bowl appearance. But they had been hammered by USC in the regular season finale (44-24), and were pummeled by LSU in the bowl game (44-14). Brady Quinn was heading for the NFL and four young, untested quarterbacks were vying to replace him. Jimmy Clausen eventually won the job over Zach Frazer, Demetrius Jones, and Evan Sharpley. The three seasons of the Weis/Clausen era (3-9, 7-6, 6-6) did little to ease my Irish angst. Of course, the excitement of Brian Kelly's first season under the Dome made 2010 a great year to blog Irish football.

But something funny happened in over the final four games of last season: The Notre Dame football team started to play the way the Fighting Irish are supposed to play. Following back-to-back losses to Navy and Tulsa (can you feel the angst?) Notre Dame hosted the #15-ranked Utah Utes, and in miserable rainy conditions the Irish dominated. After the game I wrote about the experience of being there:

First, although I don't get to South Bend for a lot of games, the game against Utah was the first I can remember for a long while where I felt that the crowd was being vocal enough to give our team a true home-field advantage. It has seemed to me in recent years that the Notre Dame home crowd is generally pretty flat, and not too fearsome for opposing teams. But the crowd was into it last week (sparked by Robert Blanton's punt-block touchdown!) and I really felt that Utah was having trouble communicating and that they were rattled by the crowd. It was awesome!

Second, the scene after the game was unlike anything I had ever seen. I stormed the field as a student at Notre Dame, but I have never witnessed anything like the celebration last Saturday. It was clearly a catharsis. On one level it is silly for a 5-5 Notre Dame team to storm the field after a win over Utah. We're the Fighting Irish for crying out loud. On another level, this team, these seniors, those students have experienced tremendous adversity over the last four years and even in the last few weeks. They needed some good news like nobody's business. The first win over a ranked opponent for this senior class was a sufficient excuse to celebrate. The students poured onto the field, and it didn't take long for the ushers and security staff to switch from trying to stop it to just making sure nobody got hurt. The team and the band and the students were all partying together, and the crowd was so jammed in that the band couldn't march out through the the tunnel. So they just kept playing! The fact that my wife and I watched from the stands while both our kids were down on the field (somewhere!) just made it that much more special.

Third, and this is probably just the optimist in me, but the outstanding play of the defense and the efficient play of the offense (including the appearance of a power running game) really felt like a turning point for this team and for Coach Kelly's program. From the stands you could feel the confidence of the team grow as the game wore on. I sure hope we're able to look back at this game and say "We were there" when Coach Kelly and the Irish turned the corner.

The Utah game did feel like a real turning point in the program. That feeling was reinforced when Tommy Rees and the Irish went to the new Yankee Stadium and did what a Fighting Irish football team is supposed to do to a service academy team - beat them soundly (27-3).

A week later the Irish were in OC Domer country, playing the Trojans in the L.A. Coliseum. It was a glorious day of rain and unseasonably cold temperatures. Both teams were playing back-up quarterbacks in the game. It was only the four Irish turnovers that kept the game close, as the Irish out-rushed and out-gained USC, capping the game with a punishing 7-play, 77-yard drive featuring Robert Hughes power runs of 6, 12, 13 and 5 yards, the final rush for the game-winning TD. I stood with my wife in our typical end zone Coliseum seats with all the other Domers, the rain dripping off us, and I was very happy and excited. But I was also overcome with an intense feeling of relief. The Irish had finally snapped the streak of eight straight losses to the Trojans. To me, the world was once again restored to its proper balance. Notre Dame had gone into the Coliseum and had pushed the Trojans around, literally shoving them backwards the length of the field to score the final touchdown (20-16). It was clear to me standing there in the rain, cheering for Old Notre Dame as the clock wound down, that the Fighting Irish were back. Maybe not all the way back, yet. But Coach Kelly clearly knows what he is doing, and while there may be some bumps along the way, Our Lady's University finally has the right man for the job.

My feeling of inner peace with respect to the Irish was obviously boosted by their impressive performance in the Sun Bowl. Media darling Miami, with all that "speed", couldn't hang with Notre Dame on either side of the ball. The final score was 33-17, but the game wasn't that close.

Although I was hugely impressed with how the defense had matured over the final four games of 2010, and how Tommy Rees had stepped in and led the offense after Dayne Crist went down with injury, I didn't feel the urge to sit down and write about it. It's hard to be interesting when the substance of your posts boils down to: "Wow! We're really good! Did you see how good we looked!"

So where does the OC Domer blog go from here? I have been giving it a lot of thought. The Blue-Gray Sky set an awfully classy example of how a blog should probably just ride off into the sunset when the sense of urgency fades, and real life intrudes. But I don't think I can be that classy. The OC Domer will endure, but it will probably change from what my readers have seen over the past few seasons. I'll still be blogging, but posts will, I expect, be a little less regular. I probably won't write as many long game-preview posts or post-game analyses. I will be gracefully (I hope) bowing out of the weekly Irish Blogger Gathering. But when I notice something that moves me to offer my two-cents' worth, I'll be here. You'll probably see more non-football topics as well. (I know I have threatened that before).

The changes here don't mean I am less passionate about my team, or my alma mater. It just means that I'm more at peace with the state of the Fighting Irish, and that other aspects of my life will be getting a little more of my attention. At least for now.

A Little Blogkeeping

There are a couple of items I want to address before we can move forward with the 2011 season.

1. Congratulations to Tommy Rees, who has been named the winner of the 4th Annual OC Domer Player of the Year Award for 2010. What can you say? A backup QB who takes the reins of a team on the brink of collapse and leads it to wins over Utah, Army, USC and Miami is a no-brainer for this award. Past winners of the OCDPOTYA include David Bruton, Michael Floyd, and Golden Tate. Tommy is no less deserving of this prestigious honor just because I am months late handing it out. The runner-up for 2010 was defensive sensation Manti Te'o, with honorable mention going to kicker David Ruffer.

2. Congratulations to the winner of the OC Domer 2010 Fantasy Football League: OC Domer! I want to thank everyone who has participated in the OC Domer FFL over the past four seasons. I have really enjoyed running the league, and I hope everyone else had fun too. As part of the general reorganizing and re-prioritizing here at OC Domer HQ, I do not plan to organize/manage a league for the 2011 season. Not because I didn't enjoy it, but just because I want to use that time pursuing other interests.

Irish Blogger Gathering: The Fall of Troy

Living in Southern California as I do, Subway Domer is kind enough to let me be the host for this week's edition of the Irish Blogger Gathering. It's an exciting week here at OC Domer Headquarters. As I type this our daughter is on a plane flying home for Thanksgiving (and the ND v. USC game). She is bringing her roommate with her, and we are going to be seeing a lot of her OC and Notre Dame friends over the next several days. OC Headquarters is as clean and ship-shape as it has ever been, as Mrs. Domer has had us working overtime for weeks in preparation. But now that all the preparations are complete, we can turn our full attention to those heathens who call themselves the "Trojans." I don't think I can over-emphasize the importance of this game to all the Notre Dame alumni and fans here in Orange County. This is Trojan country, and this game is for a full year's worth of bragging rights. I don't know if you have a lot of interaction with USC's bandwagon fans where you live, but I can tell you that the last thing you want to give a Trojan is a year's worth of bragging rights. You might think that having a National Championship, a Heisman Trophy, and two years of bowl eligibility stripped from them by the NCAA would teach them a little humility. You would be wrong.

USC has had a nice little run lately against the Irish, having won eight in a row. It's almost enough to make you forget that the Irish owned USC for 13 years in a row from 1983 through 1995, or that Notre Dame leads the all-time series over USC 42-34-5.

Both of these teams are in transition. The Irish are beginning what they hope will be a long, successful run under new head coach Brian Kelly. USC said a tearful goodbye to Pete Carroll and is now led by Lane Kiffin. It hasn't been pretty for either team this season. USC of course got hammered by the NCAA, and they have lost four games to PAC-10 opponents so far, getting completely undressed by Oregon and Oregon State. The Irish have had troubles of their own, losing five games so far and having been whipped by Stanford and Navy. Yes, whipped by Navy. The Irish have not had any NCAA trouble, but they have been beset by a rash of injuries to key personnel and a tragic death within the program. The good news for Irish fans is that the team is playing its best football of the year behind freshman quarterback Tommy Rees and a defense that seems to have finally got its groove on with outstanding performances against Utah and Army in the last two games, whereas USC is coming off a beat-down at Corvallis and may have lost their starting quarterback to a high ankle sprain.

Which brings us to this week's IBG questions:

1. Notre Dame played perhaps its best game of the year in a win over the Utah Utes two weeks ago. Utah remains ranked at #23 in the Associated Press poll. Notre Dame likewise took Michigan State (AP #11) to overtime before losing on a fake field goal. Therefore the Irish should have no trouble with this unranked Trojan squad. Agree or disagree? Show your work.

Disagree. USC is unranked, but perhaps unfairly. Yes, Oregon and Oregon State whipped them pretty good. But those are two great teams (#1 and #22 in the Sagarin ratings). But USC has also beaten California, Arizona, and Arizona State (#27, #17, and #29 in Sagarin). They lost to Stanford (Sagarin #2) by just two points. You might recall that Stanford beat the Irish by 23.

Although the Irish win over a ranked Utah team was nice, let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Irish themselves are unranked in the major polls and Sagarin has them at #37 versus USC's #19.

But, a lot of that is history. Notre Dame is playing its best football of the year. The defense in particular appears to have had an enormous light bulb turn on over its collective head. The challenge for the Irish this week will be to take its high level of play into the Coliseum against a team with athleticism which is a significant cut above that of Utah and Army. The Irish defense was clearly faster, stronger, more athletic than the skill players of Utah and Army. How will they match up against the 4- and 5-star players of USC, even if they are playing with the same focus and discipline? The Notre Dame defensive line dominated the past two games. Can they dominate the USC offensive front?

Notre Dame's backups - at QB, receiver, tight end, running back - were able to outplay the starters for Utah and Army. Can our backups outplay USC's starters?

I think it will be a close game. Our spread O against a USC defense that has been out of sorts this year. USC's dynamic offense against an improving D that has been gashed at times. It may well come down to whether Matt Barkley is able to play. If we can put the Trojans in the same position we are of playing back-up QB, I like our chances. Our back-up quarterback is better than your back-up quarterback!

Bottom line: I like the momentum and mental toughness of the Irish. USC is feeling a bit besieged right now. The streak ends Saturday, as the Irish beat the Trojans 27-24.


2. It is almost time for the OC Domer Player of the Year to be named. This award is intended to recognize the Notre Dame football player or players who played the best when it mattered the most. Suffice it to say that the primary criterion is a consistently high level of play, with significant bonus points awarded for exceeding expectations. Injuries have taken many of the pre-season favorites for this prestigious award out of the running. Who is your nominee for this award, and why?

Well, there is still a chance for a star to emerge against USC and take the prize. And I am very interested to see who the other bloggers nominate. But the obvious candidates for me are Manti Te'o, Chris Stewart, and Tommy Rees. Manti has been a tackling machine and is a rising superstar at the national level. Chris Stewart is just an amazing story of character and perseverance. And freshman back-up Tommy Rees has been remarkable off the bench so far.


3. With a delicate flavor similar to beef, though slightly sweeter than other meats, horse meat can be used to replace beef, pork, mutton, and any other meat in virtually any recipe, though most aficionados prefer it in marinated or spicy dishes. Nutritionally, horse meat has around 40 percent fewer calories than the leanest beef, while supplying 50 percent more protein and as much as 30 percent more iron; and horse fat is considered an excellent health-conscious deep-frying alternative, especially for delicately-flavored foods that are easily overpowered by heavier oils. What is your favorite horse meat recipe?

Filet Mignon

This simple French classic serves 4.

4 four-ounce filets of horse
4 slices bacon
salt and pepper to taste

Prepare exactly as for a filet mignon. Wrap outside of filet with uncooked bacon slice and secure with toothpicks. Broil to taste.

4. Do you miss Pat Haden, who left the Notre Dame television broadcasts to become athletic director at USC?

Absolutely not! It was always a little weird that Notre Dame had a USC guy on its T.V. broadcasts, although I always thought Haden did a good job. But I have been blown away by his replacement in the booth, Mike Mayock. Mayock is outstanding in analyzing the X's and O's, as well as in relating his stories and his impressions of the student-athletes involved in the games.

As an aside, I think Haden was an excellent hire to replace Mike Garrett as USC's A.D.

5. USC is the Notre Dame rival I love to hate. What Notre Dame rival do you most despise, and why?

As noted above, USC is villain #1 in the OC Domer household. It started with watching Anthony Davis and that damn horse gallop all over the field against Notre Dame. Living amongst the Trojan faithful the past several years hasn't helped things. The contrast between flashy, west coast, Hollywood USC and wholesome midwestern values Notre Dame is just so stark for me. It's a clash between two different cultures.

6. Reggie Bush got a car, his parents a house. Cam Newton's Dad was looking for $180,000 in straight cash homey. Can Notre Dame compete for athletic recruits in this environment? Or do you believe these incidents are the exceptions to an otherwise clean recruiting landscape?

I think this type of stuff happens more than I would really care to admit to myself. But I still think there are enough kids of good character who are going to college for the right reasons that the Irish can field a strong football team. I do think, however, that in some parts of the country (cough *SEC* cough) the motto is still "If you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin'." That's why the sanctions against USC and a strong NCAA response to the Cam Newton situation is so important.

As the other members of the IBG post their responses I will put links to those posts below.

The Domer Law Blog post is here.

We Never Graduate chimes in with some Gary Gray love and USC Hate.

Subway Domer goes on the record, in his own inimitable style.

Frank V. of UHND.com has some love for the Irish secondary.


Go Irish! Beat Trojans!

Lack of Institutional Control

The NCAA has finally spoken on the Reggie Bush & O.J. Mayo investigation. In sum, the committee was wholly unimpressed with the NCAA rules compliance efforts of the University of Southern California and actually dropped the "lack of institutional control" hammer on them.

Here is the NCAA's release which summarizes their findings.

Here is the full 67-page report.

I have now read the entire report. Good stuff. Reggie Bush's parents lived in a house provided by wanna-be sports agents rent-free for a year. Reggie got a nice Chevy Impala, with very expensive rims, stereo, and alarm system, from the same wanna-be agents. Reggie and his folks and some of his friends received various benefits of cash, airline tickets, hotel rooms, and limo service from the same wanna-be agents. Then Reggie and his family stabbed the first group of wanna-be agents in the back and started getting benefits, including a paid "internship" and some travel benefits from a second group of wanna-be agents. This really annoyed the first group of wanna be agents, who then enlisted a USC assistant coach (apparently running backs coach Todd McNair) to pressure Reggie into living up to the deal he made with the first group of agents. The assistant coach denies this ever happened and the NCAA flat-out calls him a liar.

O.J. Mayo (and some of his boys) received cash, a 42-inch flat screen T.V., travel, clothes, shoes, meals and other stuff from some scummy "marketers" who acted as go-between essentially representing O.J. in the recruiting process.

In both cases, what got USC in hot water with the committee was its utter lack of curiosity when confronted with serious clues that NCAA rules were being broken. Time and time again representatives of USC (football coaches and basketball coaches mostly) had information that would have led any reasonable person to conclude that something fishy was going on, and in every instance they chose to essentially ignore the information rather than engaging in prudent follow-up to determine whether there was a problem the University needed to address. The NCAA notes that for most of the period in question the compliance "staff" for the entire University was two people, and that at one point the compliance staff was just a single person. Given the high-profile nature of the USC athletic program and the athletes it recruits, the NCAA strongly felt that USC needed to allocate significantly more resources to its compliance efforts.

To me, the biggest message the NCAA is sending with this report is that the "ostrich" approach to potential NCAA violations by member institutions is not sufficient to shield them from responsibility. Sticking one's head in the sand when the evidence of corruption is swirling around you, so that you can later claim you didn't know anything about it, is no longer an option. I'm looking at you, Pete.

The NCAA was also disturbed by the environment and the atmosphere surrounding the football program and football players at USC. This led to one of the more interesting sanctions imposed: The ban on non-university personnel traveling with the team or being at practices, on the sidelines, or in the locker rooms before, during, or after games. College football's version of the Showtime Lakers just got canceled. Sorry Will Ferrell and Snoop Dogg.

As for the sanctions themselves, I don't think anybody will seriously argue that USC got a slap on the wrist. They are labeled a repeat-offender and the committee states that the decision on whether or not to impose a total T.V. ban was a close one. As it is, the Trojans can only award up to 15 new football scholarships (and carry no more than 75 total) for the next three seasons. They are banned from post-season play for two years. All wins in which Reggie Bush played from December 2004 through the 2005 season are vacated. This means that USC had a combined record of zero wins (all 12 wins are vacated) and one loss (The BCS title game loss versus Texas still stands) for the 2005 season. Unfortunately, USC's loss is not Notre Dame's gain, as a vacated win is not the same as a forfeit. The Irish still record the loss, although I would advocate for a giant asterisk next to the "Bush Push" game in the N.D. media guide. Those are the most significant of the twenty-five different sanctions imposed.

No word yet, as far as I know, regarding the BCS Championship USC won in January of 2005 in the Orange Bowl over Oklahoma. If Reggie played in that game, it stands to reason it would have to be vacated unless the BCS is not bound by the NCAA ruling. Also still waiting to hear from the New York Downtown Athletic Club.

Basketball got hammered as well, and even women's tennis took a hit. Cheating in football and basketball is one thing. But cheating in women's tennis is simply depraved.

It's really, really tempting to gloat. I'll admit I have gloated a little, mostly privately. But to me the big picture here is that the NCAA did something very important today. They took a stand for the integrity of college athletics, and they severely disciplined one of the geese that lays the golden eggs in college football. A cynic might say that they cut off their nose to spite their face. I am instead reminded of the biblical passage:

And if thy hand offend thee, cut it off: it is better for thee to enter into life maimed, than having two hands to go into hell, into the fire that never shall be quenched.

What does all this mean for Notre Dame? Well, we get to put an asterisk in the media guide, as noted above. We'll get a bit of a recruiting edge against USC for a few years because they won't be able to offer as many scholarships, and the taint of this scandal will hamper them for a while with some prospects. The bowl ban and the scholarship limits will likely hurt USC's on-field performance for a while, which should give the Irish a chance to restore the proper balance to the USC-ND series. Life for a Notre Dame alumnus in Orange County will be a little more pleasant as hopefully today's report will help to tone down the arrogance level of the many USC alumni and bandwagon fans in the O.C.

But I can't help but wonder what Charlie Weis thinks of all this? Notre Dame ended the 2005 regular season at 9-2, the only blemishes on their record an overtime loss to Michigan State (epic comeback from a 21-point deficit) and the "Bush Push" loss to USC. What would have happened if Reggie Bush, who has today been ruled ineligible for that entire season, didn't play that day? He ran for 160 yards and three touchdowns in that game. If USC hadn't played an ineligible player, the Irish probably defeat USC, ending their 27-game winning streak in what would have been one of the biggest wins in Notre Dame football history. The Irish end the regular season at 10-1. Would they have played in the BCS Championship game?

The rap against Charlie was that he never got that "signature win." A win against USC in 2005 would certainly have qualified. Nobody would have questioned his contract extension. Team confidence would have soared. Recruiting would have been even better. Maybe even good enough to prevent, or at least moderate, the disaster we saw on the field in 2007. Things might have been a lot different for Coach Weis. I think I'll probably drink a cold one for Charlie tonight.

Interesting side note: Do you remember Missy Conboy? Missy Conboy is the Deputy AD at Notre Dame and actually served as interim Athletics Director before Jack Swarbrick was hired. Well, it turns out that Ms. Conboy is also a member of the NCAA Committee on Infractions and is a signatory on today's report. I'd love to buy her a drink or two and just get her talking. I'm sure it would be very entertaining.

Quick Hits, Pearl Harbor Edition

Things have been busy at OC Domer HQ and I just haven't been able to write all the posts I have wanted to write lately. So here are my thoughts on recent developments in condensed Readers Digest format:

1. Coaching Search. Well, what do you know? Brian Kelly will be meeting with Jack Swarbrick on Tuesday to discuss ... well, you know. All as foretold by OC Domer.

2. Pete Carroll's Girlfriend. Do I really care if Pete "Always Compete" Carroll is (or was) living with a USC grad student in Malibu? Hell yes I care. I'm not particularly proud of it, but I do care. I'm sure the Los Angeles media is all over this story and we'll get all the juicy details real soon. With pictures. (Won't they?) I want to see if Pete is hitting a higher class of "mistress" than Tiger Woods is. But you will note that in his profuse apologies about allowing an off-the-record comment to get into print that Charlie never quite says that the underlying facts about Pete and the grad student aren't true. Hmmm. Seems very unlike Charlie to let something like that slip without any basis.

3. Tiger Woods' Mistresses. Latest count is up to nine. At what point do we get real and stop calling all these tramps "mistresses"? And don't you love how all these "hostesses" are shocked and hurt by Tiger's infidelity? "I thought I was the only hooker gold digger in his life." Hilarious. What's not hilarious is that Tiger has hurt his wife Elin, who deserved better from him. I hope a few hundred million dollars will ease her pain.

4. Jimmy & Golden. Going pro. Not a surprise. I would love to see them play at Notre Dame for another year, but they'd be crazy to. Good luck to both guys as they move the show to Sundays. I hope they each make a big pile of cash and have long, glorious NFL careers. Thanks to both of them for giving all of us everything they had for three years. I hope they find the time somewhere down the road to complete their degrees and graduate from ND.

5. Charlie to Da Bears? Rumors have the Chicago Bears as a potential landing spot for Coach Weis next season, likely as offensive coordinator. Makes great sense. I would expect that CW will try to find a position as close to South Bend as possible to remain close to the Hannah & Friends facility that means so much to him.

6. Still Recruiting. Thanks to Coach Weis and all his assistants for being completely classy and professional and working to keep all the 2010 verbal commits in the fold.

7. Bowling. I agree with the decision not to accept any bowl invitations this year. Notre Dame has a long history of declining bowl invitations. During decades when we were THE elite program in the country we won National Championships without bowl games. We have frequently declined to go bowling when the team had a sub-par season or when the invitation wasn't from a prestigious bowl. There is no reason to humiliate ourselves by playing a bowl game in Detroit against some MAC opponent. In the current context there is no real upside. More weeks practicing the system of the just-fired coach? And who is calling the plays? And how motivated are our soon-to-be millionaire offensive leaders? And what would a win get us? Have some pride and play in a bowl again when you've actually earned it and when the game would mean something.

8. OC Domer Owns Subway Domer's 2009 Pick 'em Contest. Subway Domer once again hosted a weekly Pick 'em contest for this season. Players had to pick winners for about a dozen college games each week, straight up. Bonus points for correctly picking upsets. More bonus points for picking upsets in Top 25 games. After a very slow start to the season I went on a very nice run and finished 2009 as co-champion. Final results are here. My team is "Holy Cross." Thanks to Subway for putting on the contest again this season. I really do enjoy putting my picks together each week. It makes Saturdays more interesting without costing me a wad of cash.

USC Post Script

A week ago, on the eve of their much-anticipated game against USC, I posted here an open letter to the Notre Dame football team. In that post I urged the Fighting Irish to -

Play hard. Run like your hair is on fire. Hit like a freight train. If you get hit hard, hit back twice as hard. Finish your blocks. Take care of the football. Don't commit a dumb penalty. Play every play with the urgency of a last-minute drive. Wrap 'em up on your tackles. Play with all the heart we know you have.

It was my hope that if they did these things, if they gave it everything they had on every play, they would beat the Trojans.

And they almost did.

As it turned out, despite giving it their all, the Irish last Saturday ran out of time 4 yards short of a touchdown that, depending upon whether they chose to attempt a 1 or a 2-point conversion, would have tied or even possibly won the game. To get to that final play Notre Dame had rallied from a 20-point deficit earlier in the 4th quarter that left many Irish fans, including this one, worried that the game was teetering on the verge of another lopsided finish.

I share the tremendous disappointment of a missed opportunity to beat USC, and of yet another Trojan victory that extends their win streak over ND to 8.

Over the past few seasons USC's dominance over Notre Dame and their blowout wins in both Los Angeles and South Bend left me frustrated and embarrassed and, frankly, angry that the Irish were not even remotely competitive against the Trojans.

This week I have been emotionally drained, but I have not had a single moment of frustration, embarrassment, or anger. This week, I have have been able to hold my head high and I have been especially proud to be a Notre Dame alumnus. Because last Saturday the Fighting Irish played exactly how I hoped they would. They played hard, they fought and they scraped, they took care of the ball and didn't commit dumb penalties. They played with heart and with character and they surprised the college football world by going toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the nation for 60 minutes and coming within a whisker of pulling an upset that would have been one for the ages.

Great game guys. Thanks for being such outstanding representatives of Notre Dame.

Now go beat B.C.!

Dear Fighting Irish

An Open Letter to the Notre Dame Football Team

Dear Fighting Irish,

Tomorrow's a big day. It's a big day for you, and a big day for tens of thousands of Notre Dame alumni and for the millions of subway alumni who embrace Our Lady's University and all she stands for. There has been an intensity and a buzz on campus all week that is felt all the way out here in Southern California. Your fans and supporters genuinely believe that this is the year the Fighting Irish can restore the proper balance to the college football universe by beating USC. We BELIEVE you can do it.

I was going to write to encourage you to think about all the history of Notre Dame football, and to go out there tomorrow and win the game for Rockne, Leahy, Parseghian, and Holtz. To win for the former players that tried their best to "Play Like a Champion" when they wore that uniform and ran out through the tunnel and into Notre Dame Stadium. To win for the alumni, young and old, who will be standing in the middle of their living rooms and cheering you on because they can't sit down during a Notre Dame football game even when it's on T.V.

But I'm not going to encourage you to beat USC for me, or for thousands of other alumni and fans and players you have never met and will probably never meet. It would be both foolish and selfish to expect you to play for all of us.

You need to play tomorrow for YOU. The mighty Trojans of Southern California are rolling into Notre Dame Stadium tomorrow afternoon and they want to show the world, again, that they are better than you. Look around your locker room. No player on your team has EVER won a game against USC. Every Notre Dame - USC game gets a tremendous amount of national and even international attention and every game is broadcast on national television so that everyone who cares at all about college football can watch the game. The senior class that graduated last Spring never beat USC, nor did the seniors that graduated the year before that, or the year before that. If Notre Dame does not win tomorrow, then this year's seniors will be added to that group of players who never beat Southern Cal.

Why does it matter? It matters because the results of the USC game stick with you for the rest of your life like a giant tattoo on your face. The USC - Notre Dame rivalry is one of the biggest in all of sport, and for the rest of your life after you leave Notre Dame you will be reminded about how you played against the Trojans. In your social life, in your professional life, everywhere you go it will be with you. It can be with you in a good way, or in a bad way - but it will be with you. You'll bump into Notre Dame alumni and fans. You'll meet alumni of other college football powers. You'll be introduced to, and maybe even work with, former players and coaches from USC. And the question will always be there.

How'd you guys do against USC when you played at Notre Dame?

You chose Notre Dame perhaps for many reasons. Hopefully you have found there what you sought. But one of the things you came to Notre Dame for was the chance to prove that you have the talent and the determination to be the best. Now is your chance. For the past several years the USC game has, unfortunately, shown that the Notre Dame football team was not the best, was not among the best, and was a long way from being the best. Tomorrow is your chance to prove that things at Notre Dame have changed. That we do have great players with the talent and the drive and the heart to be among the best. You have the chance to go out into the stadium tomorrow and make that statement, and if you meet the challenge and beat the Trojans, you will have the privilege of carrying that victory with you for the rest of your life. And you will also have the distinction of being the team that restored Notre Dame to it's rightful place among the college football elite.

Play for that. And play for your fellow students in the Northwest corner of the stadium who will also be asked, for the rest of their lives after they leave Notre Dame, "How'd you guys do against USC when you were there?" You guys are all in this together.

Play hard. Run like your hair is on fire. Hit like a freight train. If you get hit hard, hit back twice as hard. Finish your blocks. Take care of the football. Don't commit a dumb penalty. Play every play with the urgency of a last-minute drive. Wrap 'em up on your tackles. Play with all the heart we know you have.

And Beat the Trojans!

Believe me, no one will mind if you win tomorrow for you, instead of for us. We'll still be just as proud to be sons and daughters of Notre Dame, and just as happy that Notre Dame football is back.

Go Irish!

Sincerely,


OC Domer

Irish Blogger Gathering: The Quest for a Signature Win

Welcome to the USC-week edition of the Irish Blogger Gathering, hosted right here at OC Domer in a nod to the fact that I have to live my life surrounded by Trojan alumni & fans. Having grown up in California, and living in So Cal for the past 16 years, the USC game annually is the "Big One" at OC Domer HQ. Win this game, and you get a full year of smack-talk satisfaction out of it. Lose this game and you're in for a full year of crap at every cocktail party and other social function you attend for 12 long months. It's funny how many more USC fans you meet when they're winning than when they're losing.

Added to the usual stakes surrounding a USC-ND game this year is the Quest for the Signature Win. Charlie Weis is in his fifth season as Notre Dame's head football coach. He rolled up a lot of wins in 2005 and 2006, but lost the Bowl game following each season. 2007 & 2008 were unequivocal disasters with the exception of the Hawaii Bowl win last Christmas Eve. Can you name Coach Weis' biggest win to date? Neither could I, so I looked it up. The candidates for "signature win" are:

• Unranked ND beats #23 Pittsburgh, 42-21. (2005)
  
• #20 ND beats #3 Michigan, 17-10. (2005)
  
• #13 ND beats #22 Purdue, 49-28. (2005)
  
• #4 ND beats #19 Penn State, 41-17. (2006)
  

Those are Coach Weis' only wins over ranked opponents, and the last one was more than three full years ago (September 9, 2006 over the Nittany Lions). It's nice to win games over weaker teams (which itself has been pretty uncertain for the last three years), but WE ARE ND! We should be competing with and beating highly ranked opponents our fair share of the time. And it needs to start now.

This week's IBG Questions:

1. The weather forecast for Saturday's game (as of this writing) has the high temperature in the mid 40's with some chance of rain (or snow?). What weather would give Notre Dame the best chance to beat USC? Why?

Think snow. Better yet, think sleet and wind chill. Snow can be beautiful, and it might be novel enough that the Trojans find it amusing to play in. But cold, near-frozen rain in a driving wind would be ideal playing conditions. USC's players, as talented as they are, traditionally have not adapted well to poor weather in South Bend. Frankly, if it gets cold enough, you quickly get the sense that they'd just as soon be anywhere else but playing football in Notre Dame stadium. Our guys don't really like it either, but they're more used to it and can gut it out better. The worse the weather is on Saturday, the more I like our chances.


2. Irresistable Force or Immovable Object? Notre Dame's offense is ranked #10 in yards (470 per game) and #27 in points (32.6 per game). USC's defense is ranked #6 in yards allowed (238.6 per game) and #4 in scoring allowed (just 8.6 points per game). In 2008 Notre Dame had just 91 total yards against USC. Will the Notre Dame offense be able to move the ball on Saturday? If so, how?

To me, this is the key question in the game. USC graduated most of the players off their 2008 defense (you can watch them playing on Sundays now), but the guys they have plugged in this season are playing very well. Notre Dame returns most of the players who were completely bottled up in 2008. What has changed?

Without Michael Floyd in the lineup, Coach Weis has been much more creative this year with how he creates favorable match-ups and tries to get the ball in Golden Tate's hands. Thus, it will be more difficult for the Trojan defense to double Golden and take him out of the game. Also, in contrast to late 2008, Coach Weis has some more weapons in his arsenal. Kyle Rudolph is a real match-up problem, and Coach Weis has been creative in moving him around and in stretching the defense vertically with Rudolph. Mix in a little bit of Robby Parris and Shaq Evans and Jimmy should be able to find an open receiver. The offensive line has matured in both pass protection and run blocking, so I think we'll be able to move the ball some. Last year the Irish had some success running straight at the Trojan defense with James Aldridge, who will be back for this game. Rather than trying to get Armando Allen to the edge (a losing proposition), I'd like to see Robert Hughes and James Aldridge running inside the tackles, with some play action passes mixed in. I think the Irish will be able to move the ball, but I don't think we'll be able to sustain 80-yard drives. In order to score points, we'll need some big plays on defense and special teams to set up scoring opportunities.


3. USC's offense is #22 in yards (430.6 per game) and #53 in scoring (28.8 points per game). Notre Dame's defense is #100 in total defense (403.2 yards per game) and #59 in scoring defense (allowing 23.8 points per game). Will the Notre Dame defense be able to slow down the USC offense? If so, how?

USC's offense is a very balanced attack, averaging just slightly more passing yards per game than rushing yards. I'm hanging my hat on two factors. One is the fact that USC quarterback Matt Barkley is a freshman. I am hoping that at some critical moment in the game a combination of environment, moment, confusing Jon Tenuta defense, and inexperience will coalesce into a major mistake or two by the young QB. I am also hoping that the defensive stat sheet for Notre Dame against Washington is the beginning of a trend. I have been lamenting for a very long time that the leading tacklers in ND's defense are the defensive backs. The safeties have almost always been the leading tacklers, way ahead of any linebacker, and the defensive linemen were statistical ghosts. There was a sharp turnaround in that pattern against UW. Kyle McCarthy was still the leading tackler. But linebacker Manti Te'o was second, and several other members of the front seven stepped up in a big way to dislodge the defensive backs from their normal spots atop the stat sheet. In other words, the defensive front seven finally started making plays against the Huskies. If that continues, it will allow the defensive backs to concentrate on down field coverage and hopefully eliminate big plays in the passing game.

I don't expect the Irish defense to stop USC. They haven't stopped anyone else. But I think they can slow them down enough, and make enough plays, to keep Notre Dame in the game.

4. In 2008, with Michael Floyd unable to play due to injury, Golden Tate had 2 catches against USC for a team-high 15 receiving yards. How do you expect Golden Tate to play against USC this year?

I expect Golden to play much better. As noted above, Charlie is working much harder to find creative ways to get the ball into Tate's hands. It reminds me of the way Lou Holtz made sure that Tim Brown got his touches, or even the way USC always found a way to get Reggie Bush the ball.

However, I don't expect Golden to put up the clown numbers he has for past few weeks. I think he'll have perhaps 120 total yards. But he won't be able to carry the team on his back. In order for the Irish to win, somebody else is going to have to break some big plays. Who will be the hero?

5. Jimmy Clausen has started to get some Heisman buzz. In your opinion, which Notre Dame player is the most deserving of Heisman attention, Jimmy or Golden Tate? Why?

Jimmy is playing well. But in Floyd's absence Golden Tate has been ridiculous. His highlight reel is absolutely sick. If he continues to play the rest of the season the way he has the past few weeks, I think Golden is more Heisman-worthy than Jimmy. But Jimmy could change my mind on Saturday. In fact, I hope he does.

6. Overrated or Underrated. Notre Dame cracked into the AP Poll at #25 this week. Are they overrated or underrated at #25? Where would you put them in your poll?

The Irish are underrated at #25. I'd put Notre Dame at about #20. As I look at the AP poll I see about 5 teams that in my view should be below the Irish.

7. USC Song Girls: Ambassadors of Collegiate Goodwill or Anachronism from a bygone era of oppressive sexist stereotypes?


I'm gonna have to come down pretty firmly on the side of "Ambassadors of Collegiate Goodwill."


8. Green Jerseys? There's a lot of "green" talk coming from campus this week, and it raises the question of whether the team will be wearing green on Saturday. Do you want to see the green jerseys or not? Why?

Unless the team is begging Coach Weis for the chance to wear the green because they think it will really fire them up, I don't want to see the green jerseys for a while. Lately the green jerseys have not been "lucky" and they certainly haven't been associated with big wins. To me, the wearing O' the green has been a bit of contrived emotion tried by coaches who have run out of ways to motivate the team.

That said, if we're winning at halftime (or even keeping it really close at half time), coming out in green for the second half might be just what the doctor ordered.


9. Name the next number in this sequence: -3, -20, -38, -35, _______. Explain.

The next number in the sequence is +3. There is no way this game doesn't get decided in the final moments. I see a tie game at the end of regulation. USC gets the ball first, but we hold them to a field goal. Notre Dame gets the ball and scores a touchdown, and doesn't need to kick the extra point. Irish win by 3.

Follow-up:

The Domer Law Blog IBG Contribution for this week is HERE.

The Brawling Hibernian's post is HERE.

OneFootDown checks in for this week HERE.

Subway Domer is in the house.

And Sarah at Bad Trade goes on the record.

Charlie's Nasties aren't feeling it. Yet.

Notre Dame Shaking Down the Thunder in 2009

Put up or shut up. That seems to be the consensus among the Irish faithful and the college football cognoscenti regarding Notre Dame's 2009 football season. The Irish return almost the entire offense from a year ago, led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a junior heading into his third year as a starting QB who completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards last year with a 25/17 TD/INT ratio. Clausen will be playing behind an offensive line that has already amassed 100 career starts between them, which puts them among the most experienced offensive lines in the country. That line experience should translate into time to throw the ball for Clausen, and a new offensive line coach, Frank Verducci, will hopefully mean improved O-line play in the running game.

If Clausen does have time to throw, and he should, that means trouble for opposing secondaries. With Golden Tate and 2008 OC Domer Player of the Year Michael Floyd at wide receiver and Kyle Rudolph at tight end, Notre Dame has among the best receiving corps in the nation. All three players can stretch the field (they average 18.6, 15.0, and 11.7 yards per catch, respectively); none can be effectively covered by a single defender. And you can't double-cover all of them. If these three stay healthy, Clausen and the Irish offense should put up Brady Quinn-esque numbers in 2009. Tate, Floyd and Rudolph are complemented most notably by junior Duval Kamara (who has terrific size but needs to have a bounce-back year) and freshman Shaquelle Evans who has looked impressive in camp and is really pushing for early playing time.

The ability to stretch the field with the passing game should really benefit the Irish running game, led by 2008 leading rusher Armando Allen (134 carries for 585 yards; 50 receptions for 355 yds), who has been announced as the clear starter by Coach Weis. Allen will be accompanied in the backfield by James Aldridge (91 carries for 357 yds in '08), now the starter at fullback. Robert Hughes (112 carries for 382 yds in '08) will be first to spell Allen, but sophomore Jonas Gray and exciting freshman Cierre Wood will both see carries in 2009. The expectations with the running game are that the vertical threat of the passing game prevent defenses from stacking 8 defenders at the line of scrimmage, thus giving the running backs some room to work. Key will be whether the new offensive line coach can solve the short-yardage woes that have plagued Charlie Weis' offense since he arrived in South Bend. If these experienced backs, running behind an experienced group of linemen, can finally be counted on to reliably move the sticks in short yardage situations, thus sustaining drives and keeping our defense fresh, Notre Dame fans should be treated to a very enjoyable year.

In the off-season Charlie Weis shuffled the duties of his coaching staff a bit (he now has an associate head coach and two assistant head coaches), but the most significant result is that Jon Tenuta is now the defensive coordinator. Most expect that this will therefore be an aggressive, attacking defense that attempts to dictate the tempo of the game to opposing offenses and keep opponents back on their heels. In some respects the approach can be high risk - high reward, as the frequent blitzes Tenuta employs leaves defensive backs working in single coverage. Fortunately, the Irish secondary looks to be top-notch this year and should be more than capable of handling the assignment. The loss of safety David Bruton to the Denver Broncos will certainly be felt, but safeties Kyle McCarthy (110 tackles in 2008, most ever by an Irish defensive back) and Harrison Smith (57 tackles in '08 was 4th on the team) should fill in ably. Notre Dame is deep at the corners, led by Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton. If teams are going to move the ball on Notre Dame, it will not be through the air.

As in previous seasons, the concern with the Irish defense is up front. Once again, D-line is considered to be talented and scrappy, but probably a bit undersized. Nose Tackle Ian Williams weighs in just north of 300 lbs, but the other projected starting defensive tackle, the very disruptive Ethan Johnson, weighs just 275 lbs. The defensive ends, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal weigh in at 265 and 246 lbs. These players are all well suited to Jon Tenuta's aggressive defensive system, but it remains to be seen how stout they can be against teams that are content to run the ball straight at you. The defensive front seven have to show the ability to take on blockers heads-up and stuff a hole. The past two seasons have seen too many defenders trying to run around blocks, leaving big seams for opposing ball carriers to run through until a defensive back came up to make a tackle.

The top tackler among defensive linemen last season was the departed Pat Kuntz, whose 42 was 6th best on the team. The next D-lineman in tackles was nose tackle Ian Williams with 40 (8th best in '08). Digest that for a minute. Notre Dame's top five tacklers in 2008 did not include a defensive lineman. You might argue that it's the scheme, that the D-line is supposed to occupy blockers and let the linebackers run to the ball. I'd buy that, if the stats backed it up. But the top two tacklers for ND last season weren't linebackers. They were safeties. And it wasn't close. Kyle McCarthy led all Irish defenders with 110, David Bruton was 2nd with 97. Linebacker Maurice Crum was a distant third with just 65 tackles. Notre Dame's front seven needs to be much more effective this year stopping the run, so that the defensive backfield can worry less about run support and concentrate instead on defending the pass.

While the loss of Maurice Crum's leadership in the middle of the defense will be felt, the fact is that the guys replacing Crum are much more talented. Super-recruit Manti Te'o will get on the field early, likely playing alongside junior Brian Smith and sophomore Darius Fleming, although the competition for starting linebacker jobs is intense this season, and that's a good thing. Whoever plays, the linebackers have to step up this year in both stopping the run without DB help and in getting home and sacking opposing quarterbacks on Coach Tentuta's blitzes.

On special teams, freshman Nick Tausch came into camp and took control of the kicker position, winning both the kick-off job and the place-kicking job. I am very anxious to see the young man kick. Lack of a consistent place-kicker has plagued the Irish for two seasons, and the inability to kick the ball into the end zone for touchbacks has been frustrating. If Nick Tausch can bring Notre Dame's not-so-special teams up from "awful" to "average" it will be a big boost to Irish fortunes in 2009. Eric Maust remains the ND punter.

So how do I see this team shaping up in 2009? As I wrote in an earlier post:

With respect to Notre Dame football, there just isn't much uncertainty this year, other than the ultimate uncertainty of how many wins the Irish will put in the books. [...] For 2009, there just aren't many unknowns. The players in 2009 are almost without exception the same guys we watched lose at home to Syracuse and then win impressively in Hawaii. Same quarterback, same running backs, same linemen, same receivers. Same defensive players, with the exception of an opening at linebacker and an opening at safety.

So, given that we're going to see what is essentially the same group of players, each of them a year older, a year more mature (physically and emotionally), a year more experienced, what can we realistically expect?

The 2008 Fighting Irish posted a 6-win, 6-loss regular season and had a dominating performance in winning the Hawaii Bowl 49-21. That's a 7-6 overall record. Digging just a little deeper, however, one quickly learns that the 2008 squad, from a talent perspective, should have posted a 9-3 regular season record. The losses to Michigan State (argh), Boston College and USC were never really in doubt. But ND blew double digit leads against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. A team with a little more experience, and a little more maturity, doesn't lose those games in 2008. So while they fully earned their 6-6 mark, from a talent and ability standpoint the Irish were arguably playing at the level of a 9-3 squad.

Is it unreasonable to expect the 2009 Fighting Irish, with the added maturity and experience, to play at least at that 9-3 level this season? I do not think that's unreasonable at all. And that's before you even begin to look at the 2009 schedule.

Let's go ahead and look at that schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).


Sept. 5: Nevada. The danger in this game is that the Irish fail to take this good team from the wacky WAC seriously enough while looking ahead to the Michigan game. In 2008 the Wolf Pack's offense was potent and balanced, led by QB Colin Kaepernick who is a true dual threat with 1,100 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing last season. 2009 will be his third season as a starting QB. The Irish defense's speed and athleticism should be able to slow Kaepernick enough to allow Jimmy Clausen and the ND offense to win the game by scoring at will against a poor Nevada defense whose main weakness is in the secondary. Key to the game will be the Irish defense getting off the field on 3rd Down and the Notre Dame offense controlling the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. (Isn't that always the key?). The point is, Nevada is dangerous and if you don't take care of business they are good enough to ruin your entire season in Week 1. I will be watching this game closely to see if the 2009 Irish dominate a less talented team like they should, rather than playing down to the level of the opponent and keeping the game "interesting" far longer than they should (see: 2008 season opener against San Diego State). Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%

Sept. 12: @Michigan. It was a party in Notre Dame Stadium as the Fighting Irish blew out the Wolverines in what must have been a cathartic 35-17 victory following the travesty that was 2007. While Notre Dame looked impressive that day, they were helped by 6 UM turnovers and actually had some problems slowing down the Wolverine running game in the person of Sam McGuffie. I expect UM to cut down on the turnovers and put up a better fight in the Big House, but they are still in a serious re-building mode and are expected to start a freshman at quarterback. Add to their already substantial problems the exploding controversy about the Wolverines and Dick Rod being a bunch of cheaters and I expect UM to be distracted and confused enough for the Irish to get a nice road win in a physical game. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Sept. 19: Sparty. I hate those guys. Coach Weis is 1-3 against Michigan State which, to coin a phrase, is not good enough. In 2007 MSU beat ND by 17 pts. In 2008 the margin was 16 pts. This is not progress. Notre Dame's problems against Sparty have been in the trenches. MSU has been more physical than the Irish on both sides of the ball and that has told the tale. ND has been unable to run the ball with any success, and has had difficulty contending with the Spartan power rushing attack. This game will be an important test against a very good team. Will the experienced Irish O-line finally be able to assert itself in the running game? Will the Irish front seven on defense be able to man up and compete with MSU's power game? MSU will be a very good team and probably the second toughest game on the Irish schedule. But Sparty will badly miss the leadership of talented QB Brian Hoyer and the production of RB Javon Ringer. Irish win a battle at home. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%

Sept. 26: @Purdue. Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 last season. Purdue's top three rushers, top two passers, and top two receivers from that team are gone, to be replaced by untested players led a by a first year head coach. The defense does return a lot of experience, and talent, but Purdue is going to have a tough year. The Irish defense should force some turnovers and lead Notre Dame to a convincing win in West Lafayette. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%






Oct. 3: Washington. The once proud Huskies were winless in 2008 and own a 14-game losing streak. But they got rid of Coach Tyrone Willingham and brought in former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to be the new head coach. No doubt they will eventually get better, but the Irish crushed UW last year 33-7 in Seattle, and one would have to expect a similar result when the Huskies visit Notre Dame Stadium in '09. Sarkisian will have the team playing with more heart and pride, no doubt, but even with touted QB Jake Locker healthy again, Notre Dame fans know all too well how hard it can be to overcome a Ty Willingham-created talent deficiency. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%

Oct. 10: -Bye-. Great spot for the bye week. Five games played and USC next up on the schedule. Gives the coaches and players a chance to re-group, get healthy, and take some time to prepare for the Trojans.

Oct. 17: USC. Toughest game on the schedule, again. It's great to get USC in Notre Dame Stadium. Unfortunately the Trojans are coming off a bye week as well. But they may well need it, having already played Ohio State and Cal, both on the road. A third tough road trip this early in the season could have the boys of Troy feeling a little ragged. Of course, USC is loaded, particularly at running back and receiver. But they just announced that true freshman Matt Barkley will be the starter at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. Recalling last year's painful game in the Coliseum, the Notre Dame defense actually played pretty respectably against the Mark Sanchez led Trojan offense. But the complete inability of the Irish to move the ball meant the defense was on the field all night, usually with their backs against the wall. Given the loss of so many 2008 Trojan defensive players, the Irish offense should fare better in 2009 (It really hurt that Michael Floyd was injured and unable to play against USC in '08). Likewise, the Irish defense should have more success this year playing against a true freshman at QB. I still can't predict an Irish victory, given that the gap between the two programs is too wide to close in the space of one season. Two things can really help Irish chances in this game. First, the students MUST go to the game. October 17 falls on the first weekend of Fall break, and it would be tough to win the game if the students go home for break and leave empty seats in the stadium. The team will be pumped up if everyone stays for the game and gets LOUD. Second, pray for snow. Or at least a really miserable cold, rainy day. Those Southern California kids HATE the cold. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 40% (i.e., 40% chance of Irish win)

Oct. 24: Boston College. My irritation at losing to Boston College (6 straight) is probably second only to my irritation at losing to Sparty. BC has a new head coach, although he's been in the program for a while, in Frank Spaziani. They do return some experience for '09 (13 or 14 starters depending upon who you read), but will be breaking in a new quarterback and installing a new offesnive system. The Irish lost to the eagles at BC in '08 by a 17-0 score, in a lackluster game featuring awful playing conditions and reportedly an Irish QB battling the flu. Despite the score, ND had more yards and more first downs than BC, but Jimmy Clausen threw four interceptions that killed off any chance te Irish had of scoring. Bring this game home to the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium (and hopefully in front of the students on Fall break who stayed on campus or came back early to cheer on the team), eliminate the INTs, and sprinkle in a little payback, and Notre Dame should FINALLY get over the hump against the Eagles. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Oct. 31: Washington State (@ San Antonio). That's right, San Antonio. wtf? Presumably, a lot of die-hard Notre Dame fans living in or near Texas will pack the Alamo Dome (or wherever the game is being played), giving the Irish a nice "home field" avantage for this neutral site game. I am also presuming that Charlie Weis will be using this game as a showcase of the program for Texas-based high school recruits and potential recruits. Otherwise this game makes no sense to me. All that said, the Cougars beat Portland State and Washington last season (in OT, at home). They lost every other game, most of them by very ugly lopsided scores. They'll be better this year (they would have to be, wouldn't they?), but they won't give the Irish much trouble. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%


Nov. 7: Navy. The Middies had a very nice 8-5 season in '08 under first year coach Ken Nimuntuukomuntotrklo, and gave the Irish a scare last season in a 27-21 ND win. But Navy has to replace all their top offensive weapons from '08 (rushing, passing receiving). They will play valiantly but lose to ND @ ND. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%


Nov. 14: @Pittsburgh. The third toughest game on the schedule, Notre Dame lost at home to the Panthers last season in quadruple overtime, 33-36, blowing a game they led 17-3 at halftime. This year the game is in Pittsburgh. The Panthers return nine offensive starters (but not LeSean McCoy), and four defensive starters (but not defensive leader Scott McKillop). It should be a real tester for the Irish on the road, but hopefully the desire to atone for last season's embarrassing collapse will be the difference. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%

Nov. 21: Connecticut. The Huskies lose their top rusher (Donald Brown, 2083 yards in '08) and starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen 48.8 pct., 869 yds passing) off a team that went 8-5 with a Bowl win last season. Starting at quarterback for U-Conn in '09 is a familar face - former Notre Dame QB Zach Frazer, who was 46 of 83 (55.4%) for 536 yds, 2 TDs and 6 INTs for the Huskies in '08. You may recall that Zach was the first big recruit to commit to Coach Weis after he took over at Notre Dame. Upon his transfer out of the program I wrote:

I can only wish Zach all the best. When they write the book on the Charlie Weis era, Zach Frazer should have a small chapter in it all to himself, as he was a pivotal character in the Weis story. Zach was the first big recruit landed by Coach Weis. Zach was the answer to the question: Will this former NFL assistant coach be able to bring premiere talent into the Notre Dame program when competing against experienced college head coaches in the recruiting wars? Zach Frazer was a high school junior with a big arm, big numbers, and big hype. He was rated four stars at both Rivals.com and Scout.com. His verbal commitment sent shock waves throughout the Notre Dame community and throughout college football. It served notice that Coach Weis was a serious, energetic, and aggressive recruiter. No longer would Notre Dame wait, and wait, and wait before finally tendering offers to 4- and 5-star athletes. From now on, we were going to get into the hunt early and force other programs to play catch up. With one verbal commitment from Zach Frazer, Coach Weis (and Zach) changed the perception of Notre Dame's talent level. Zach took the Irish from being a program of mostly 3-star talent with some 4-star athletes sprinkled in, to being a program with 4-star talent sprinkling in some 5-star players. After his verbal commitment, Zach continued to help build the program by actively recruiting other top talent to come to Notre Dame. [...] Prior to the arrival of Charlie Weis, Notre Dame was losing 1- 2- and 3-star quarterbacks to transfer when they learned they either weren't going to be the starter (LoVecchio) or weren't going to be the primary back-up QB (Wolke, Olsen). Notre Dame now expects to lose a 4-star quarterback who can't crack the top 3 positions on the depth chart. That is a dramatic change, and we ironically owe that change, at least in part, to Zach Frazer.

Frazer's 2 TD / 6 INT ratio last season is worth noting, since interceptions were a problem for him at Notre Dame as well. In the 2007 Blue & Gold game Zach was 0 for 4 with an INT, which set the table for his departure from South Bend. I'm guessing Coach Weis will be able to find some Zach Frazer videotape for Coach Tenuta to digest in preparation for the U-Conn game. U-Conn comes to Notre Dame after a bye week and they will be looking to get a BIG win for their rising program. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Nov. 28: @Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh has brought some toughness (one might say dirty play) to the Farm, and Stanford is no gimme for anyone. Notre Dame beat the Cardinal 28-21 in '08 in Notre Dame Stadium, so a road game against a team that returns 17 starters from last season, including all the key playmakers, is no picnic. Still, it is Stanford, who will be hosting the Irish the week after hosting the Cal Bears in the annual "Big Game." There's a significant chance that Stanford could have a letdown when Notre Dame shows up. This game reminds me of the 2005 game between these two teams. Brady Quinn's Notre Dame squad was highly ranked and traveling to Palo Alto in need of a win to secure a berth in a BCS Bowl game. The game was a real battle, with the Irish coming out on top 38-31 and on their way to the Fiesta Bowl to face Ohio State. The '09 ND v. Stanford game could have similar implications. If Notre Dame has the kind of season they are capable of having, a win against the Cardinal could punch their ticket to a BCS Bowl game. In that case, I would expect ND to be very motivated, and to be playing very well if they are in that position. Stanford would be pesky but ultimately no match for Notre Dame. If, however, Notre Dame does not live up to expectations and needs a win against Stanford to earn a trip to a lesser bow game, and if Stanford could improve their bowl outlook with a big win, this game could be close again. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Conclusion: You've already heard all about the predictions of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook, who each have Notre Dame playing in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, so I'm not sure what else I can add. I am as optimistic as any Notre Dame fan, but even I don't predict an appearance in the Championship game. To get there would require a 12-0 season, which of course means beating USC, which I personally think is only about a 40% possibility. I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.