IBG: Nasty, Brutish and Short Edition

The Irish Blogger Gathering is hosted by the Brawling Hibernian. Once you're done here you can head over there to read all the other IBG entries for BC week. Last week's loss to USC left me pretty wiped out, and so I'm way late with my IBG post for the week. Because I am so late with it, the post will be nasty, brutish and short. Really the primary purpose of writing it is to check it off my blogging "to do" list so that I don't beat myself up over letting down the group. It's not about you, it's about me.

1. Coming off a very difficult loss to a rival that has now beaten them eight straight times, Notre Dame faces another that's beaten them six straight. Can Notre Dame end the losing streak against BC or will the combined weight of the USC loss and recent history against the Eagles be too much to overcome? Explain.

Personally, I have been very slow to put the emotional USC game behind me and re-focus on Boston College. And that's the problem with the B.C. game in a nutshell, isn't it? We look at B.C. as a "nice" game to play since they are the "other" big Catholic football school. But for whatever reason the Irish never seem to take the game against the Eagles very seriously. I don't know why, but I suspect it just boils down to the fact that you can't emotionally have a big "rivalry" game every week. You get fired up for Michigan and USC and even Michigan State. In the midst of a long tough slog with no real break in the action, Boston College kind of creeps up on you as just the next game on the schedule.

B.C., on the other hand, looks at the Notre Dame game as one of their BIG rivalry games. For the Eagles, beating the Irish brings a sense of validation born of the inferiority complex that comes from being, in the eyes of most, the "other" big Catholic football school.

Which means that, psychologically, Boston College has shown up to these games more ready to play than Notre Dame has most years. Add in to the mix a very draining loss to USC last week, and the Notre Dame football team is a prime candidate for a letdown loss to B.C. To stave it off, the Irish need to be a lot more resilient than I have been since last Saturday. Hopefully they have been able to shake off the Trojans and re-focus on the Eagles during practice.

I think the Irish will get it done tomorrow. (Okay, who here is truly surprised that I like ND in this game? Seriously.) It's a real break that we get this game at home, where the team can draw some energy from the home crowd and can actually build on the positive vibes of the success they had against USC last week even though they didn't get the win.

But mostly, I think we're a better team. Notre Dame is ranked at #17 in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings this week, going 4-2 against the 13th toughest schedule in Division I. Boston College is ranked #47, with a 5-2 record against the 82nd toughest schedule. Wins against Northeastern, Kent State, and NC State don't impress me.

2. Not unlike Notre Dame's defense, BC's offense has been pretty erratic this season. While in their most recent win, they rolled up 480 total yards and scored 52 points; in their two losses, they've averaged 109 yards and 11 points. Which BC offense and which ND defense show up on Saturday? Why?

This game has the makings of Notre Dame's first comfortable win since the Nevada game. Boston College has two narrow wins over Florida State (28-21) and Wake Forest (27-24). Those schools are ranked #44 and #68 by Jeff Sagarin. Clemson, which hammered the Eagles 25-7 is ranked by Sagarin at #41, which is 23 spots below the Irish. NC State, who surrendered the aforementioned 480 yards and 52 points to BC, is ranked at #91.

The ND defense needs to improve. They really, really need to improve. They will give BC some success. But ultimately the Eagles will look more like the team that played Clemson than the team that played NC State.

3. Does anyone seem primed to have a Robby Parris-like breakout moment against the Eagles? If so, who is it and why?

Mike Ragone. We have been waiting for Coach Weis to get the multiple tight ends sets working in the offense. BC largely frustrated Kyle Rudolph (and Clausen) last year and can be expected to give #9 a lot of attention. Robby Parris is "full go" for the game (which amazes me), but I expect him to be a step slow against BC. We'll need another threat in the passing game to step up, and Mike Ragone is overdue.

4. It's been an and up-and-down year for Boston sports. After a strong start, the Red Sox folded in the second half of the year. The Patriots, meanwhile, seem to be on the upswing after a 59-0 dismantling of Tennessee. For their part, Boston College has seemed as though their season could go either way. Ultimately, will the Eagles be the Sox or the Pats?

Honestly, who cares about Boston Sports? Boston College is in something of a rebuilding year. If they do as well as the Red Sox (a wild card team who were SWEPT by the Angels in the playoffs) they will be very happy.

5. While most Irish fans refer to BC as "Fredo", tell me to which other cinematic character you would compare the Eagles.

Why mess with a good thing? The sniveling, weak, younger brother of the Godfather saga is a truly inspired cinematic comparison. To me, the Eagles are typecast as Fredo, and I can't even envision them playing another role.


Conclusion: Enough already. Just go out there and put the Eagles in their place. Get your cleats on their necks and don't let them up. No need for last-minute heroics this week. Is anybody up for a little domination?

Notre Dame Shaking Down the Thunder in 2009

Put up or shut up. That seems to be the consensus among the Irish faithful and the college football cognoscenti regarding Notre Dame's 2009 football season. The Irish return almost the entire offense from a year ago, led by quarterback Jimmy Clausen, a junior heading into his third year as a starting QB who completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards last year with a 25/17 TD/INT ratio. Clausen will be playing behind an offensive line that has already amassed 100 career starts between them, which puts them among the most experienced offensive lines in the country. That line experience should translate into time to throw the ball for Clausen, and a new offensive line coach, Frank Verducci, will hopefully mean improved O-line play in the running game.

If Clausen does have time to throw, and he should, that means trouble for opposing secondaries. With Golden Tate and 2008 OC Domer Player of the Year Michael Floyd at wide receiver and Kyle Rudolph at tight end, Notre Dame has among the best receiving corps in the nation. All three players can stretch the field (they average 18.6, 15.0, and 11.7 yards per catch, respectively); none can be effectively covered by a single defender. And you can't double-cover all of them. If these three stay healthy, Clausen and the Irish offense should put up Brady Quinn-esque numbers in 2009. Tate, Floyd and Rudolph are complemented most notably by junior Duval Kamara (who has terrific size but needs to have a bounce-back year) and freshman Shaquelle Evans who has looked impressive in camp and is really pushing for early playing time.

The ability to stretch the field with the passing game should really benefit the Irish running game, led by 2008 leading rusher Armando Allen (134 carries for 585 yards; 50 receptions for 355 yds), who has been announced as the clear starter by Coach Weis. Allen will be accompanied in the backfield by James Aldridge (91 carries for 357 yds in '08), now the starter at fullback. Robert Hughes (112 carries for 382 yds in '08) will be first to spell Allen, but sophomore Jonas Gray and exciting freshman Cierre Wood will both see carries in 2009. The expectations with the running game are that the vertical threat of the passing game prevent defenses from stacking 8 defenders at the line of scrimmage, thus giving the running backs some room to work. Key will be whether the new offensive line coach can solve the short-yardage woes that have plagued Charlie Weis' offense since he arrived in South Bend. If these experienced backs, running behind an experienced group of linemen, can finally be counted on to reliably move the sticks in short yardage situations, thus sustaining drives and keeping our defense fresh, Notre Dame fans should be treated to a very enjoyable year.

In the off-season Charlie Weis shuffled the duties of his coaching staff a bit (he now has an associate head coach and two assistant head coaches), but the most significant result is that Jon Tenuta is now the defensive coordinator. Most expect that this will therefore be an aggressive, attacking defense that attempts to dictate the tempo of the game to opposing offenses and keep opponents back on their heels. In some respects the approach can be high risk - high reward, as the frequent blitzes Tenuta employs leaves defensive backs working in single coverage. Fortunately, the Irish secondary looks to be top-notch this year and should be more than capable of handling the assignment. The loss of safety David Bruton to the Denver Broncos will certainly be felt, but safeties Kyle McCarthy (110 tackles in 2008, most ever by an Irish defensive back) and Harrison Smith (57 tackles in '08 was 4th on the team) should fill in ably. Notre Dame is deep at the corners, led by Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton. If teams are going to move the ball on Notre Dame, it will not be through the air.

As in previous seasons, the concern with the Irish defense is up front. Once again, D-line is considered to be talented and scrappy, but probably a bit undersized. Nose Tackle Ian Williams weighs in just north of 300 lbs, but the other projected starting defensive tackle, the very disruptive Ethan Johnson, weighs just 275 lbs. The defensive ends, Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal weigh in at 265 and 246 lbs. These players are all well suited to Jon Tenuta's aggressive defensive system, but it remains to be seen how stout they can be against teams that are content to run the ball straight at you. The defensive front seven have to show the ability to take on blockers heads-up and stuff a hole. The past two seasons have seen too many defenders trying to run around blocks, leaving big seams for opposing ball carriers to run through until a defensive back came up to make a tackle.

The top tackler among defensive linemen last season was the departed Pat Kuntz, whose 42 was 6th best on the team. The next D-lineman in tackles was nose tackle Ian Williams with 40 (8th best in '08). Digest that for a minute. Notre Dame's top five tacklers in 2008 did not include a defensive lineman. You might argue that it's the scheme, that the D-line is supposed to occupy blockers and let the linebackers run to the ball. I'd buy that, if the stats backed it up. But the top two tacklers for ND last season weren't linebackers. They were safeties. And it wasn't close. Kyle McCarthy led all Irish defenders with 110, David Bruton was 2nd with 97. Linebacker Maurice Crum was a distant third with just 65 tackles. Notre Dame's front seven needs to be much more effective this year stopping the run, so that the defensive backfield can worry less about run support and concentrate instead on defending the pass.

While the loss of Maurice Crum's leadership in the middle of the defense will be felt, the fact is that the guys replacing Crum are much more talented. Super-recruit Manti Te'o will get on the field early, likely playing alongside junior Brian Smith and sophomore Darius Fleming, although the competition for starting linebacker jobs is intense this season, and that's a good thing. Whoever plays, the linebackers have to step up this year in both stopping the run without DB help and in getting home and sacking opposing quarterbacks on Coach Tentuta's blitzes.

On special teams, freshman Nick Tausch came into camp and took control of the kicker position, winning both the kick-off job and the place-kicking job. I am very anxious to see the young man kick. Lack of a consistent place-kicker has plagued the Irish for two seasons, and the inability to kick the ball into the end zone for touchbacks has been frustrating. If Nick Tausch can bring Notre Dame's not-so-special teams up from "awful" to "average" it will be a big boost to Irish fortunes in 2009. Eric Maust remains the ND punter.

So how do I see this team shaping up in 2009? As I wrote in an earlier post:

With respect to Notre Dame football, there just isn't much uncertainty this year, other than the ultimate uncertainty of how many wins the Irish will put in the books. [...] For 2009, there just aren't many unknowns. The players in 2009 are almost without exception the same guys we watched lose at home to Syracuse and then win impressively in Hawaii. Same quarterback, same running backs, same linemen, same receivers. Same defensive players, with the exception of an opening at linebacker and an opening at safety.

So, given that we're going to see what is essentially the same group of players, each of them a year older, a year more mature (physically and emotionally), a year more experienced, what can we realistically expect?

The 2008 Fighting Irish posted a 6-win, 6-loss regular season and had a dominating performance in winning the Hawaii Bowl 49-21. That's a 7-6 overall record. Digging just a little deeper, however, one quickly learns that the 2008 squad, from a talent perspective, should have posted a 9-3 regular season record. The losses to Michigan State (argh), Boston College and USC were never really in doubt. But ND blew double digit leads against North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse. A team with a little more experience, and a little more maturity, doesn't lose those games in 2008. So while they fully earned their 6-6 mark, from a talent and ability standpoint the Irish were arguably playing at the level of a 9-3 squad.

Is it unreasonable to expect the 2009 Fighting Irish, with the added maturity and experience, to play at least at that 9-3 level this season? I do not think that's unreasonable at all. And that's before you even begin to look at the 2009 schedule.

Let's go ahead and look at that schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).


Sept. 5: Nevada. The danger in this game is that the Irish fail to take this good team from the wacky WAC seriously enough while looking ahead to the Michigan game. In 2008 the Wolf Pack's offense was potent and balanced, led by QB Colin Kaepernick who is a true dual threat with 1,100 yards rushing and 2,800 yards passing last season. 2009 will be his third season as a starting QB. The Irish defense's speed and athleticism should be able to slow Kaepernick enough to allow Jimmy Clausen and the ND offense to win the game by scoring at will against a poor Nevada defense whose main weakness is in the secondary. Key to the game will be the Irish defense getting off the field on 3rd Down and the Notre Dame offense controlling the ball and avoiding costly turnovers. (Isn't that always the key?). The point is, Nevada is dangerous and if you don't take care of business they are good enough to ruin your entire season in Week 1. I will be watching this game closely to see if the 2009 Irish dominate a less talented team like they should, rather than playing down to the level of the opponent and keeping the game "interesting" far longer than they should (see: 2008 season opener against San Diego State). Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%

Sept. 12: @Michigan. It was a party in Notre Dame Stadium as the Fighting Irish blew out the Wolverines in what must have been a cathartic 35-17 victory following the travesty that was 2007. While Notre Dame looked impressive that day, they were helped by 6 UM turnovers and actually had some problems slowing down the Wolverine running game in the person of Sam McGuffie. I expect UM to cut down on the turnovers and put up a better fight in the Big House, but they are still in a serious re-building mode and are expected to start a freshman at quarterback. Add to their already substantial problems the exploding controversy about the Wolverines and Dick Rod being a bunch of cheaters and I expect UM to be distracted and confused enough for the Irish to get a nice road win in a physical game. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Sept. 19: Sparty. I hate those guys. Coach Weis is 1-3 against Michigan State which, to coin a phrase, is not good enough. In 2007 MSU beat ND by 17 pts. In 2008 the margin was 16 pts. This is not progress. Notre Dame's problems against Sparty have been in the trenches. MSU has been more physical than the Irish on both sides of the ball and that has told the tale. ND has been unable to run the ball with any success, and has had difficulty contending with the Spartan power rushing attack. This game will be an important test against a very good team. Will the experienced Irish O-line finally be able to assert itself in the running game? Will the Irish front seven on defense be able to man up and compete with MSU's power game? MSU will be a very good team and probably the second toughest game on the Irish schedule. But Sparty will badly miss the leadership of talented QB Brian Hoyer and the production of RB Javon Ringer. Irish win a battle at home. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%

Sept. 26: @Purdue. Notre Dame beat Purdue 38-21 last season. Purdue's top three rushers, top two passers, and top two receivers from that team are gone, to be replaced by untested players led a by a first year head coach. The defense does return a lot of experience, and talent, but Purdue is going to have a tough year. The Irish defense should force some turnovers and lead Notre Dame to a convincing win in West Lafayette. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%






Oct. 3: Washington. The once proud Huskies were winless in 2008 and own a 14-game losing streak. But they got rid of Coach Tyrone Willingham and brought in former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to be the new head coach. No doubt they will eventually get better, but the Irish crushed UW last year 33-7 in Seattle, and one would have to expect a similar result when the Huskies visit Notre Dame Stadium in '09. Sarkisian will have the team playing with more heart and pride, no doubt, but even with touted QB Jake Locker healthy again, Notre Dame fans know all too well how hard it can be to overcome a Ty Willingham-created talent deficiency. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%

Oct. 10: -Bye-. Great spot for the bye week. Five games played and USC next up on the schedule. Gives the coaches and players a chance to re-group, get healthy, and take some time to prepare for the Trojans.

Oct. 17: USC. Toughest game on the schedule, again. It's great to get USC in Notre Dame Stadium. Unfortunately the Trojans are coming off a bye week as well. But they may well need it, having already played Ohio State and Cal, both on the road. A third tough road trip this early in the season could have the boys of Troy feeling a little ragged. Of course, USC is loaded, particularly at running back and receiver. But they just announced that true freshman Matt Barkley will be the starter at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. Recalling last year's painful game in the Coliseum, the Notre Dame defense actually played pretty respectably against the Mark Sanchez led Trojan offense. But the complete inability of the Irish to move the ball meant the defense was on the field all night, usually with their backs against the wall. Given the loss of so many 2008 Trojan defensive players, the Irish offense should fare better in 2009 (It really hurt that Michael Floyd was injured and unable to play against USC in '08). Likewise, the Irish defense should have more success this year playing against a true freshman at QB. I still can't predict an Irish victory, given that the gap between the two programs is too wide to close in the space of one season. Two things can really help Irish chances in this game. First, the students MUST go to the game. October 17 falls on the first weekend of Fall break, and it would be tough to win the game if the students go home for break and leave empty seats in the stadium. The team will be pumped up if everyone stays for the game and gets LOUD. Second, pray for snow. Or at least a really miserable cold, rainy day. Those Southern California kids HATE the cold. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 40% (i.e., 40% chance of Irish win)

Oct. 24: Boston College. My irritation at losing to Boston College (6 straight) is probably second only to my irritation at losing to Sparty. BC has a new head coach, although he's been in the program for a while, in Frank Spaziani. They do return some experience for '09 (13 or 14 starters depending upon who you read), but will be breaking in a new quarterback and installing a new offesnive system. The Irish lost to the eagles at BC in '08 by a 17-0 score, in a lackluster game featuring awful playing conditions and reportedly an Irish QB battling the flu. Despite the score, ND had more yards and more first downs than BC, but Jimmy Clausen threw four interceptions that killed off any chance te Irish had of scoring. Bring this game home to the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium (and hopefully in front of the students on Fall break who stayed on campus or came back early to cheer on the team), eliminate the INTs, and sprinkle in a little payback, and Notre Dame should FINALLY get over the hump against the Eagles. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%

Oct. 31: Washington State (@ San Antonio). That's right, San Antonio. wtf? Presumably, a lot of die-hard Notre Dame fans living in or near Texas will pack the Alamo Dome (or wherever the game is being played), giving the Irish a nice "home field" avantage for this neutral site game. I am also presuming that Charlie Weis will be using this game as a showcase of the program for Texas-based high school recruits and potential recruits. Otherwise this game makes no sense to me. All that said, the Cougars beat Portland State and Washington last season (in OT, at home). They lost every other game, most of them by very ugly lopsided scores. They'll be better this year (they would have to be, wouldn't they?), but they won't give the Irish much trouble. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 90%


Nov. 7: Navy. The Middies had a very nice 8-5 season in '08 under first year coach Ken Nimuntuukomuntotrklo, and gave the Irish a scare last season in a 27-21 ND win. But Navy has to replace all their top offensive weapons from '08 (rushing, passing receiving). They will play valiantly but lose to ND @ ND. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%


Nov. 14: @Pittsburgh. The third toughest game on the schedule, Notre Dame lost at home to the Panthers last season in quadruple overtime, 33-36, blowing a game they led 17-3 at halftime. This year the game is in Pittsburgh. The Panthers return nine offensive starters (but not LeSean McCoy), and four defensive starters (but not defensive leader Scott McKillop). It should be a real tester for the Irish on the road, but hopefully the desire to atone for last season's embarrassing collapse will be the difference. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%

Nov. 21: Connecticut. The Huskies lose their top rusher (Donald Brown, 2083 yards in '08) and starting quarterback (Tyler Lorenzen 48.8 pct., 869 yds passing) off a team that went 8-5 with a Bowl win last season. Starting at quarterback for U-Conn in '09 is a familar face - former Notre Dame QB Zach Frazer, who was 46 of 83 (55.4%) for 536 yds, 2 TDs and 6 INTs for the Huskies in '08. You may recall that Zach was the first big recruit to commit to Coach Weis after he took over at Notre Dame. Upon his transfer out of the program I wrote:

I can only wish Zach all the best. When they write the book on the Charlie Weis era, Zach Frazer should have a small chapter in it all to himself, as he was a pivotal character in the Weis story. Zach was the first big recruit landed by Coach Weis. Zach was the answer to the question: Will this former NFL assistant coach be able to bring premiere talent into the Notre Dame program when competing against experienced college head coaches in the recruiting wars? Zach Frazer was a high school junior with a big arm, big numbers, and big hype. He was rated four stars at both Rivals.com and Scout.com. His verbal commitment sent shock waves throughout the Notre Dame community and throughout college football. It served notice that Coach Weis was a serious, energetic, and aggressive recruiter. No longer would Notre Dame wait, and wait, and wait before finally tendering offers to 4- and 5-star athletes. From now on, we were going to get into the hunt early and force other programs to play catch up. With one verbal commitment from Zach Frazer, Coach Weis (and Zach) changed the perception of Notre Dame's talent level. Zach took the Irish from being a program of mostly 3-star talent with some 4-star athletes sprinkled in, to being a program with 4-star talent sprinkling in some 5-star players. After his verbal commitment, Zach continued to help build the program by actively recruiting other top talent to come to Notre Dame. [...] Prior to the arrival of Charlie Weis, Notre Dame was losing 1- 2- and 3-star quarterbacks to transfer when they learned they either weren't going to be the starter (LoVecchio) or weren't going to be the primary back-up QB (Wolke, Olsen). Notre Dame now expects to lose a 4-star quarterback who can't crack the top 3 positions on the depth chart. That is a dramatic change, and we ironically owe that change, at least in part, to Zach Frazer.

Frazer's 2 TD / 6 INT ratio last season is worth noting, since interceptions were a problem for him at Notre Dame as well. In the 2007 Blue & Gold game Zach was 0 for 4 with an INT, which set the table for his departure from South Bend. I'm guessing Coach Weis will be able to find some Zach Frazer videotape for Coach Tenuta to digest in preparation for the U-Conn game. U-Conn comes to Notre Dame after a bye week and they will be looking to get a BIG win for their rising program. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Nov. 28: @Stanford. Coach Jim Harbaugh has brought some toughness (one might say dirty play) to the Farm, and Stanford is no gimme for anyone. Notre Dame beat the Cardinal 28-21 in '08 in Notre Dame Stadium, so a road game against a team that returns 17 starters from last season, including all the key playmakers, is no picnic. Still, it is Stanford, who will be hosting the Irish the week after hosting the Cal Bears in the annual "Big Game." There's a significant chance that Stanford could have a letdown when Notre Dame shows up. This game reminds me of the 2005 game between these two teams. Brady Quinn's Notre Dame squad was highly ranked and traveling to Palo Alto in need of a win to secure a berth in a BCS Bowl game. The game was a real battle, with the Irish coming out on top 38-31 and on their way to the Fiesta Bowl to face Ohio State. The '09 ND v. Stanford game could have similar implications. If Notre Dame has the kind of season they are capable of having, a win against the Cardinal could punch their ticket to a BCS Bowl game. In that case, I would expect ND to be very motivated, and to be playing very well if they are in that position. Stanford would be pesky but ultimately no match for Notre Dame. If, however, Notre Dame does not live up to expectations and needs a win against Stanford to earn a trip to a lesser bow game, and if Stanford could improve their bowl outlook with a big win, this game could be close again. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%

Conclusion: You've already heard all about the predictions of Lou Holtz and Beano Cook, who each have Notre Dame playing in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, so I'm not sure what else I can add. I am as optimistic as any Notre Dame fan, but even I don't predict an appearance in the Championship game. To get there would require a 12-0 season, which of course means beating USC, which I personally think is only about a 40% possibility. I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.

The Debacle at Chestnut Hill

Last week I called the loss to Pitt the worst loss of the Weis era, so I had a few comments on the blog after the Boston College loss wondering how I would categorize that disaster.

Fair question. Was the loss to BC "worse" than the loss to Pitt?

It certainly felt every bit as bad, but ultimately I say "no." The Pitt loss was worse because the Irish gave away a game they had sewn up by half-time. The team came to play, had a good game-plan, played well enough to get a comfortable lead, and then folded up their tents and turned a "W" into an "L" in their home stadium.

At Chestnut Hill, the team didn't really show up. They fought and they scrapped, but the offense never got anything going. It was a road game in poor weather. The defense actually played a very good game. It was perhaps the ugliest game of the Weis era, and watching it gave me a stomach ache. But it wasn't as bad as losing a big lead at home to a team we should have beaten that was led by a back-up QB. But it was almost as bad.

I absolutely could not stomach watching the game for a second time, so I haven't gone back and done any in-depth analysis of the game. But I do have just a few thoughts/impressions that I wanted to throw out here.

1. Kyle Rudolph is not open. Jimmy, did you hear me? I said "Kyle Rudolph is not open." Jimmy Clausen is still growing as a quarterback, and one of the flaws in his game is that he will occasionally lock onto a receiver and force a ball into places it has no business going. Clausen threw four interceptions last week. Mostly they were caused by JC forcing the ball to receivers who were covered by multiple defenders. If Kyle Rudolph is surrounded by three defenders, then Michael Floyd, or Golden Tate, or Duval Kamara must be open somewhere.

2. Can I get quick slant, a hook, or a crossing pattern please? Clearly the Irish offensive game plan was to throw the ball deep and often. But equally as clearly the Boston College defensive game plan was "There is no way you are going to beat us with the deep ball." Coach Haywood, and QB Clausen need to make faster adjustments to the game plan in those situations and start dinking and dunking. Take what the defense is giving. Hit some shorter and intermediate throws and force the defensive backs to creep up. Get the ball into Tate's and Floyd's hands on a short route and let them make a play. More on this point in a moment.

3. Third down needs to get a little more respect. It seemed to me that the play calling on third down was careless. On third down your only goal should be a first down and moving the chains. It seemed to me that the Irish wasted a lot of third down plays with calls that were low-percentage to move the chains. The long fade route down the sideline on 3rd-and-medium is a low percentage call. I need to have the OC Domer interns do some real research on the 3rd down plays, as I'm really going off my impressions here. But the team was just 5 of 15 in 3rd down conversions (and 0 for 2 on 4th down).

4. Do we have any roll-out passes in this offense? Although he was only sacked once, Jimmy was getting a lot of pass rush in his face and I think it was contributing to his poor decisions on where to throw the ball. The Eagles had an M-1 tank playing in the middle of their D-line, and he was dominating the middle of our O-line, including one play where he rather unceremoniously tossed one of our guards into our backfield like Godzilla tossing city buses around Tokyo. I think we should have just conceded the middle and focused on getting some yards on the edges. On the few occasions where Jimmy left the pocket and scrambled left or right, he bought time to find a receiver or he gained a few yards running. I kept asking my wife (rhetorically, of course), "Why aren't they rolling Jimmy out?" Clausen is not a great runner, but but he does do a good job on the move of buying time and throwing the ball. Plus, a QB on the move puts some pressure on the defense to come up and stop him (usually opening up a receiver) or give up a five-yard run. Roll him out!

5. It's really all about taking care of the ball. Once you get over the shock of getting shut out by BC (which takes several days) and look at the stats, you see that it's not quite as bleak as it seemed on Saturday. ND had more first downs than BC (16-13), and outgained them on offense (292-246). The Irish averaged 4.4 yards per play to BC's 3.9. Notre Dame was penalized 6 times for 58 yards, but BC had 9 penalties for 90 yards. But what killed the Irish on Saturday was failure to take care of the football, and failure to win the field position battle. Of course, those two points are very closely linked. Notre Dame lost the Average Starting Field Position metric by 12 yards (ND: 23, BC:35). Most of that differential was due to losing the turnover battle 5-0. Golden Tate fumbled a punt that cost the Irish the chance to begin their first drive of the second half near mid-field when the score was just 10-0. Instead BC got the ball back at the Irish 48 and went 48 yards in 7 plays to make the score 17-0. And of course Jimmy Clausen had four INTs. Not there is ever a really good time to throw an interception (maybe late in the game with a big lead on 3rd and long and you throw an INT way down the field that is better than a punt), but Clausen's timing was especially lousy on Saturday.

• The first INT came on a 3rd-and-6 play at the BC 49 yard line, when Clausen threw the ball 25 yards down the field and it was intercepted at the BC 24 and returned for a BC touchdown. This play illustrates two of the points I made above: Being careless with 3rd down calls that cost us the chance to sustain drives, and forcing balls down the field rather than taking what the defense is giving. The INT ended an 8-play, 31 yard drive.

• The second INT came on a 1st-and-20 play at the BC 35 yard line after a holding penalty. On 1st-and-20 Clausen threw the ball 24 yards down the field where it was intercepted at the BC 11 yard line. That play ended an 8-play, 37 yard drive.

• The third INT was on a 1st-and-10 play at the BC 27 yard-line, when Clausen threw into the BC end zone for an INT, killing another scoring opportunity. That interception ended a 6-play, 63 yard drive.

• The final INT came on a 1st-and-10 play at the BC 26 yard-line when Clausen was picked off at the BC 9. That INT came ended an 8-play, 47 yard drive on Notre Dame's last possession.

As I mentioned above, BC's defensive game plan was to take away the deep ball from the Irish offense. Rather than make adjustments and take completions underneath the defense, Notre Dame kept forcing the ball down the field and getting punished for it. None of the 4 interceptions came on desperate down-and-distance situations. Three were on first down plays, and the fourth was a very manageable 3rd-and-6. Yet the four interceptions occurred 25, 24, 27, and 17 yards down the field. I don't know if it was Coach Haywood's play calling or Jimmy Clausen's audibles or decision-making that is the primary culprit, but four of Notre Dame's five best drives, and best scoring chances, ended in an interception. The best drive was a 9-play drive that ended on a failed 4th-down conversion at the BC 22. The next four best drives (8 plays, 8 plays, 8 plays, and 6 plays) were ended by the untimely interceptions. All remaining Irish possessions were 4 plays or less in duration.

After looking at the above analysis, I realize that the loss to Boston College brought home the same lessons that this team (and this quarterback) should have learned in Chapel Hill. After the loss to North Carolina I wrote:

The lesson to be taken away is that the team has evolved to the point where there is a whole lot riding on the shoulders of sophomore quarterback Jimmy Clausen. The defense and the players around Clausen on offense are good enough that the Irish stand a very good chance of winning most weeks if Jimmy plays well. By the same token, if Clausen has a bad game, or makes crucial mistakes, the team is probably going to lose. That's a big burden to carry. That's life as the quarterback at Notre Dame. In Chapel Hill Jimmy Clausen let his teammates down by not taking care of the football, and it cost his team the game despite all the other great plays he made on the day. And the turnovers were not a fluke. Jimmy has been prone to the occasional really bad throw this season, while UNC has had a knack for forcing turnovers. The situation called for being extra careful with the ball, and instead we self-destructed.

Against BC, the defense and the rest of the team played well enough (not great, but well enough) to win the game if their quarterback had taken better care of the ball. There is no reason to force the ball into a double-covered receiver on 1st-and-10. Take the check-down or throw it away. Run for a few yards and get out of bounds. Preserve the chance for a field goal or a punt. Supposedly Jimmy's ankle hurts and he had the flu last Saturday. Good to him for gutting it out. But there is no excusing the poor decisions he is making with the ball right now, and the team can't win games unless he gets that fixed ASAP.

Go Irish! Beat Navy!

Longest, Crappiest Week Ever

I don't know about you - but I have had an awful week. Yes, the election results were annoying. Hey Barack, if you could get that plan for world peace and an economic turnaround on my desk by the end of next week, that'd be great. Thanks. But what has really made me miserable these past seven days was the Notre Dame loss to Pitt last Saturday. Arrrrggghhhh! For me, that loss was the worst of the Charlie Weis era.

It was worse than losing to a quality USC in 2005 after an epic struggle. It was worse than getting pasted 38-0 by USC or Michigan. It's worse than losing to Navy. It was certainly worse than the two bowl losses to superior opponents.

Last Saturday hurt so much because the team lost a game, at home, that they needed to win, that they should have won, that they pretty much had in the bag, and that they just simply gave away. The Fighting Irish lost an important game to a lesser foe (yes, I do believe a one-dimensional Pittsburgh playing with a back-up QB is a lesser team than the Irish) simply because Pittsburgh wanted the game more than our guys did. It was more important to the Panthers to keep fighting and to come back and win one on the road than it was to our guys to come out in the third quarter and put the game away.

I have been a 100% supporter of coach Weis since the day he was hired, and I still believe he'll get the job done. I have excused bad losses to better teams as he rebuilds the program. I have excused close losses to mediocre opponents based upon our youth and inexperience. But last Saturday was the second time this season that the Fighting Irish had a game well in hand, were outplaying the opponent and had victory in sight, and then allowed the game to slip through their fingers. Coincidentally, both losses were triggered by coming out after half-time and getting whipped in the third quarter. What the heck is going on in the locker room at half-time?

Charlie, just in case nobody has explained it to you: At Notre Dame you are expected to win all the games you play against lesser opponents, and you are also expected to win your fair share of games against better teams. A typical schedule will have about 8 games on it that you "should" win and will have about 4 games that are "toss-ups." A "tossup" in Irish parlance is a game in which you are a decided underdog but which your fans expect you to win anyway. To get to 10 wins you need to win all the "gimmes" and half the tossups. So far, your teams have been losing far too many of the "should wins" and haven't won any of the "tossups," let alone winning any upsets.

Today, Notre Dame is in Boston to take on the BC Eagles. Odds makers have the Irish as a 3.5 pt underdog. That is an insult. Both teams are 5-3. Notre Dame has played a significantly tougher schedule than BC. The two teams have one common opponent - North Carolina. Notre Dame played at UNC and lost by 5 points. The Eagles played at Chapel Hill and got beat by 21 points. That point spread isn't based on the talent of the players on these two squads. That point spread is based on coaching and on heart. The odds makers look at the Fighting Irish and they see a team that still hasn't figured out how winners play football. They look at our coaches and see a group that hasn't yet figured out how to push the right buttons with this team. And who can blame them? Two of our three losses came in games where we had control of the contest at halftime, but managed to lose the game with a combination of lackluster play, poor execution, and bad play-calling.

How bad was it against Pitt? The Pitt game started coming off the rails in the third quarter, when the came roaring out of the tunnel with 14 point lead and managed to possess the ball in the 3rd quarter for 4:09, and had ZERO first downs on ZERO net rushing yards and 7 passing yards. The Irish were 0 for 3 on third down conversions and 0 for 1 converting 4th down. Meanwhile Pitt had one drive that went 8 plays and 71 yards for a TD and another than went 15 plays and 70 yards for a TD (that drive carried into the 4th quarter).

One of those teams made productive use of their time at the half, and one didn't.

The overtime periods were as woeful for the Irish offense as the 3rd quarter. In four OT periods, the Irish managed just 2 first downs, converting only 1 of 5 third downs.

• In OT1 the offense managed to get to 1st and Goal at the 10 yard line but couldn't score a TD.
• In OT2 the offense got to 1st and 10 at the 11, and couldn't score a TD.
• In OT3 the offense went backwards (-4 yards) and ended up kicking a field goal from the 29.
• In OT4 the offense gained 6 yards on 4 plays and had to settle for a FG attempt from the 19 on 4th and 4.

How's that for Red Zone offense?

To be fair, the defense was outstanding in overtime, playing much better than they had during the 3rd quarter.

The bottom line for this team is that they need to learn how to play HARD for 60 minutes. You can't take a play off, or a series off, or a quarter off and expect to win a game. Your opponent is not going to give up, or roll over just because you played a good first half. They want to beat your brains in and you have to return the sentiment. You have to play every down as though the guy across from you just groped your girlfriend at a party and then called her a dirty name when she rejected him. Every down. The goal has to be to score 20, then 40 then 60 points until the coaches call off the dogs and empty the benches.

And that goes for the coaches too. Quit easing off the gas pedal and trying to nurse a 2 TD lead for 30 minutes. It's a prescription for disaster. Go with what has been working until you are up by 40 points, then worry about offensive balance or running out the clock.

I've been so fixated on the loss to Pitt that I haven't taken much of a look ahead to Boston College. Point spreads aside, the teams are pretty evenly matched on paper. The Irish are just a few spots above BC in the Sagarin rankings. Points scored and points allowed per game are pretty even (slight edge BC). Notre Dame's offense averages about 50 yards per game more than BC's offense. Notre Dame's defense allows about 60 yards per game more than BC's defense. Notre Dame's strengths are in the passing game, both offensively and defensively. The Eagles' strength is in the ground game, both offensively and defensively.

Thus, when the Irish have the ball, I expect to see a lot of the spread offense again. Not only has it been most effective for the team this season, it matches up better against the BC defense which is very good defending the run. The wild card here is that the weather in Chestnut Hill is expected to be cool and possibly rainy (50% chance of showers), which could make it harder to throw and catch the football.

When BC has the ball, expect a lot of what Pittsburgh did. The Eagles' passing game is very modest, with more INTs than TD passes. To win this game, Boston College will need to run the ball effectively and often. If they get behind and have to throw the ball to play catch-up, it should work into Notre Dame's hands.

The game is being played on an artificial surface, which I think gives a big advantage to Notre Dame. Hard enough covering Golden Tate and Michael Floyd on a slow grass surface. Put those two and Armando Allen on turf and I think the Irish offense will be dynamic. Plus, playing on turf lessens the impact of the potentially wet weather (no mud).

The Irish actually made a game of it against BC last season and might have had a chance to win it but for some bad officiating. Since that game Notre Dame has gotten much better, and BC lost their first round draft pick QB to the NFL and are not as good as they were during their Cinderella run. But statistics and game plans aside, for me this game will boil down to whether the Notre Dame players are as disgusted and embarrassed by last week's loss as I am. If they come out looking to make the Eagles pay for all that frustration, if they are aggressive and angry, and determined and focused for 60 minutes they should beat BC handily.

Come on guys - show us some nasty!

OC Domer 2008 Notre Dame Football Pre-Season Spectacular

The time for annual “pre-season” blog posts has just about run out, so I present the “OC Domer 2008 Notre Dame Football Pre-Season Spectacular.” Of course, “spectacular” is a very subjective term. Very, very subjective. The plan is to bring you three pre-season posts in one because I’ve just run out of time to do each of them separately. The three posts are:

1. A quick review of my earlier post on the Top 10 Irish Lessons Learned from the 2007 football season to see if there is any evidence that Coach Weis and the 2008 Fighting Irish squad have taken those lessons to heart heading into this season.

2. A quick rundown of my general overall expectations for the Irish in 2008.

3. A quick look at each Notre Dame opponent and how I think the Irish will fare against them this season.

Lessons Learned

So let’s jump in. The intent of my Top 10 Irish Lessons Learned post after last season was to lay out a blueprint for how the Irish could be a significantly improved team in 2008. My thinking was that if the Irish were truly able to take those lessons to heart heading into this season, they could reasonably expect to be a much improved team. So counting down from 10 to 1, here is my very quick analysis of whether Charlie Weis and the team have actually learned the lessons taught by the historically bad 2007 season. Of course, this analysis is based on the scant evidence available to the average fan from press conferences, interviews, Spring practice, the Blue-Gold game, and Fall camp. For many of the lessons, we won’t know for sure if they’ve been learned until kick-off.

10. “Special Teams are too important to be left to a committee.” All signs point to a much improved coaching approach to special teams this year. Special Teams are now the sole responsibility of Coach Brian Polian, and his assistant special teams coordinator is Charlie Weis. No more committee. Add to this development an off-season visit to special teams guru Frank Beamer of Virginia Tech, and one has to expect improved special teams play in 2008, which will hopefully help Notre Dame close the gap in “hidden yardage” that they were giving away last year on exchanges of kicks and punts.

9. “Talent Needs to Play.” Looking at the latest two-deep and seeing all the underclassman who have moved ahead of their elders, it’s clear that talent is going to play this season. In looking at the depth chart I don’t see anyplace where a veteran is playing ahead of a youngster just because they’ve been around longer (a la Travis Thomas).

8 & 7. “The football field is not giant craps table” & “Coach the Team You Have, Not the Team You Wish You Had.” These two lessons are closely intertwined, so we’ll take them together. In the UCLA game last year, Coach Weis finally relented to the percentages and consistently punted the ball away to play the field position game rather than forcing the action with risky gambles on 4^th down. Coincidentally, that was the first Irish win of 2007. In the USC game, CW finally went against his normal preference and decided to kick the ball off to USC and play defense rather than go on offense first. These were significant signals that Coach Weis now understands that there is a significant gap between theory and reality; that one must account for the gap between design and execution. Running the ball on 4^th and 2 at midfield may be the right percentage play sometimes, but it isn’t the right percentage play when your team can’t get two yards and their confidence is fragile. Electing to receive the ball to start the game sends a great message if your offense can back it up with a good drive. But if you are more likely to go 3-and-out you are setting your squad up for failure. The screen pass is a nice call if your linemen can get outside and actually make a block. If they can’t, a screen pass equals 2^nd and 12 after a two yard loss. The crux of these two lessons is making decisions and play calls that put your team in a position to succeed, rather than at high risk of failure. For 2008 Coach Weis has assigned play-calling responsibilities to Coach Mike Haywood. I believe in 2008 we’ll see a more conventional coaching approach that features repetition of plays that are working (if it works, keep doing it until the opposition stops it), and that emphasizes field position and relies more on an opportunistic defense than a gambling offense to set up scoring opportunities.

6. “Quarterback Derby = Bad Idea.” No more quarterback carousel this year. Jimmy C. is the QB, Evan Sharpley is #2, and that might as well be carved in granite.

5. “Men versus Boys.” Coach Weis seems to have taken to heart the differences between coaching paid professionals and coaching college underclassmen. Part of the rationale for giving up his duties as play caller was to make himself more approachable and more visible to the whole team, and to allow him to focus more on his players as people rather than as X’s and O’s in his playbook. I thought it was a great example of this new approach when he announced this week that he had changed the players’ weekly schedule for game weeks to let them sleep in on Sundays and get some rest.

4 & 1. "Scheme is overrated” & “Niche.” Coach Weis has expressed his pride in being able to out “X and O” the opposition, and he delights in the complexity of his playbook. But after last season’s disastrous start he acknowledged that the team needed to find a “niche,” or a core of plays that it could execute well and then start to build on. Turning play calling over to Coach Haywood was a first step in the transition from out-scheming opponents to out-executing opponents. Rather than winning by “design” we’re going to move to winning because our players can outplay your players. As the (very young) talent is moving into the program and onto the field, Notre Dame is getting more comfortable with the idea that we can just line up our guys and let them play. Coach Weis spoke during Fall camp about doing fewer things and doing them well, rather than overloading the team with more plays than they can handle.

3. “Let's Get Physical.” Due both to his NFL background and Notre Dame’s serious depth issues in previous years, CW has not been one to do a lot of practicing at game speed. Last year he realized that this was a problem and famously took the entire team “back to training camp” after the debacle in Ann Arbor. Part of the idea of returning to training camp was to find the team’s “niche.” But part of it was also to get more physical in practice. This Fall we have already seen many players forced to sit out for a few days because concussions seemed to be spreading through the team like a virus (or like jock itch at USC). I don’t remember talk of concussions in previous camps, so it seems clear that this camp has been very physical compared to years past.

2. “Tempo.” Tempo is closely related to physical play. I’ve been writing about tempo since August of 2007, and CW talked about tempo being an issue in the loss to Georgia Tech in last year’s opener. Last Spring and during Fall practice this year Coach Weis has remarked several times about how the team is working on tempo, on playing fast. So it seems that he understands the problem and is trying to fix it. I just hope it shows up on the field.

Based upon my keen observations from 2,000 miles away, I am encouraged that Coach Weis appears to have learned many of the lessons to be gleaned from a very painful 2007, and has taken positive, concrete steps to incorporate those learned lessons into the program for 2008. Which segues nicely into my general expectations for this 2008 edition of Notre Dame football.

Overall Expectations

Others have done a fine job of previewing the 2008 Irish squad with position-by-position analyses of the depth chart. (Here, here and here, for examples). For purposes of my analysis (I use the term “analysis” very loosely), Notre Dame returns in 2008 with most of the same guys from last year, with a few new faces sprinkled in. We didn’t lose many key players to graduation and the NFL draft, and a few freshmen are already listed on the two-deep (or even the one-deep). But for the most part the Irish are going to the dance with the same group of players that we saw slogging around on the crappy, muddy turf in Stanford’s new stadium in the 2007 finale. It’s really tempting for me to start 2008 with a clean slate and pretend all the bad things that were 2007 never happened. So I went back and read my review of the Stanford game as my starting point for looking at the new year. The key bits from that review focused on how the Irish did on each of their sixteen offensive possessions against the 97^th ranked defense in the country:

Sixteen possessions. Throw out possessions 10 and 16, which were kneel downs. Of the remaining 14 possessions, three of them ended on lost fumbles, one ended on a Clausen INT, one ended on a failed 4th-and-1, and one ended on a missed (but very makable) FG attempt. That's 43% of the time that our offensive possessions ended in mistakes that either cost us crucial field position or a scoring opportunity (or both). We scored on three of the fourteen possessions (21% of the time), and punted 5 times (36%). All-in-all that is not very efficient offense.

The Irish converted just 4 of 13 third down opportunities (31%) and were 0 for 1 converting 4th downs. Clausen was sacked five times, and Stanford beat us in time of possession 34:15 to 25:45 (and actually held the time of possession margin for each of the four quarters).

So that’s our jumping off point. 5 sacks, 3 lost fumbles, 1 INT, one turnover on downs, and one missed FG attempt. To me, Irish fortunes in 2008 do not hinge on Jimmy Clausen or Duval Kamara or Robert Hughes (or Michael Floyd or Jonas Gary) becoming superstars. Those fortunes don’t even hinge on the ND offensive line becoming a dominating unit. To me, Notre Dame’s season depends most upon the Irish offense taking care of the football, becoming more efficient, and avoiding the big mistake. If we can avoid the sacks, the fumbles, and the INTs, move the ball with just modest bit of efficiency, and then punt when we have to from somewhere near midfield, we will see a vast improvement in 2008.

Blue-Gray Sky has done some great work on the concept of measuring offensive efficiency by tracking the percentage of MOE (Major Offensive Errors), which looks at the items listed above (sacks, fumbles, interceptions) and adds dropped passes and offensive penalties. The essential concept is that if a team can commit fewer of these unforced, drive-killing errors than their opponent they are very likely to win the game. Last year Notre Dame had a better MOE rating than the opponent in just four games – the three wins and the Purdue game. (Notre Dame was within 7 points of Purdue with just under eight minutes to play).

Of course, significant improvement in offensive efficiency will depend on the O-line getting significantly better. They don’t necessarily need to physically dominate (though it would be nice), but they do need to work better together. They have to communicate with each other and understand their assignments and prevent the free-runners that disrupt the backfield and cause the sacks, fumbles, and tackles-for-loss. They have cut way down on holding and other penalties. If the offensive line can play more efficiently as a unit, it will give the skill guys on offense a chance to make some plays and will at least permit the team to effectively play the field position game. It would be gravy on top (and a big surprise) if the O-line is able to not only eliminate the blown assignments, but to actually use their beefed-up physiques to blow opponents off the ball and create some room for Hughes, Allen & Co. to get past the line of scrimmage and into the second level of the defense. If the O-line can assert itself physically, then we could see not just an improved year for the Irish, but a very good year.

I expect to see improved O-line play and a step up in efficiency in 2008, but I must be honest and admit that I don’t expect to see a dominant offensive line unit. Coach John Latina hasn’t put a dominant line on the field in the whole time he has been at Notre Dame, and I don’t expect to see a miraculous transformation now. The system seems to put an emphasis on pass protection, at the expense of a power running attack. Even in 2005 and 2006 when Brady Quinn was putting up great passing numbers, the running game was predicated on Darius Walker dodging a tackler as he took the hand-off in the backfield and squirting through a gap or weaving around end for a 4-yard gain. Darius never had a big hole between the tackles to run through. In 2005 and 2006 (and in 2007) our best short-yardage play was the QB sneak.

At the skill positions we have a group of talented, if young, running backs who will make the most of any hole or crease the line can create. My favorite back is Robert Hughes, who I think is the best overall blend of size and speed and does the best job of winding his way through the line of scrimmage. Armando Allen is the speed guy, but in his freshman campaign he had difficulty running through contact and we rarely got see him display his speed from scrimmage (although he showed real flashes returning kicks). A year in the weight room should make Armando a stronger runner and a more reliable blocker, so he could surprise us. James Aldridge is similar in style to Hughes, and will share some of the “big back” carries, but I expect him to be #2 in that role. Jonas Gray is this year’s top freshman running back, and many think he may push for carries. But we’ve learned not to get too dazzled by the “whoosh” factor of incoming freshman. The bottom line is, our running back corps is a strength of the team and I have great confidence in them.

At QB is of course a healthy, bigger and more experienced Jimmy Clausen. He has a lot of upside and will play as well as the pass protection and his receivers permit. If he has time and a man open, he’s going to put the ball on him. I’m not too concerned with JC. In the Blue-Gold game this year he was making all the required throws and seemed to be in command of the playbook. His arm looked very strong and he only made a couple of bad decisions. His accuracy wasn’t amazing (he threw a few balls high or behind receivers), but it was good enough to get the job done. JC is backed up my Evan Sharpley who is more than capable of getting it done if the O-line gives him a chance.

The “other” question mark on offense is the receiving corps. Led by veterans David Grimes, Robby Parris, George West and Will Yeatman (TE) the unit should at least be “solid.” Whether the passing game can move to the next level will depend on the young guys – Duval Kamara, Golden Tate, and freshmen Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph (TE). If Kamara can be more consistent, if Tate can climb the learning curve, if Floyd really is “all that”, then the Irish passing game has the chance to move from “solid” to “dynamic.” (Assuming the O-line can keep Jimmy on his feet).

I expect the Irish offense to be very improved, but I don’t expect it to be very exciting. I expect Coach Haywood to force opposing defenses to respect our running game and only take to the air when the defense has committed to stopping the run or when the situation forces his hand. I expect it to be balanced, but definitely run first, focused on controlling the ball and moving the chains. I expect a dramatic reduction in riverboat-gambler play calling. Punts will be up, going for it on 4^th down will be down. The number one priority will be taking care of the ball and eliminating drive-ending turnovers and penalties.

The reason for the plain-vanilla offense will be our dynamic, dare I say dominant, defense. Lost in the anguish of last year’s 3-9 was the fact that our defense under first year defensive coordinator Corwin Brown was good enough to win a lot of football games if they had just a little help from the offense. After finishing 64^th in total defense (average yards allowed per game) in 2006, Notre Dame was ranked 39^th in total defense in 2007, and 2^nd in passing defense (allowing just 161 yards per game through the air). When you think about how much time the defense spent on the field last season, and how rare it was for the defensive players to watch from the sidelines while the offense controlled the game, the improvement from 64^th to 39^th in yards allowed against a very tough schedule is pretty remarkable. Add one year of physical development and mental maturity to that mix of young guys, and add one psychotic new defensive coach (Assistant Head Coach and Linebackers Coach Jon Tenuta) to the mix, and I expect the Irish defense to set the tone for this season. Under Coach Brown the Irish defense last year became noticeably more aggressive and dynamic. Adding Coach Tenuta to the staff is like adding gasoline to a bonfire. It should be really cool to watch.

The strength of the Irish defense will be a veteran secondary, led by the 2007 OC Domer Player of the Year, safety David Bruton. The secondary is veteran enough and talented enough to hold the fort downfield while Coaches Brown and Tenuta use the other seven players on defense to terrorize opposing quarterbacks and offensive linemen. The young crop of Irish linebackers have the speed and athletic ability to be dominant pass rushers off the edge, as well as to cover and chase down opposing ball carriers in space. Given their youth, they will make some mistakes, but more often than not they are going spell trouble for the opposition. The D-line is seen as the question mark of the defense. Depth and experience issues are cause for concern, but the little bit of practice video we have seen shows that as a group the front seven have been more than holding their own against the first O-line group.

I am expecting the 2008 Irish to be led by the defense, much as the 2002 squad was. You’ll recall that in 2002 Notre Dame started the year with 8 straight wins led by an aggressive, opportunistic defense which featured several stars in the secondary (Gerome Sapp, Vontez Duff, Shane Walton, Glenn Earl). For much of that eight-game winning streak the Notre Dame offense was utterly impotent and was actually being outscored by the Irish defense.

I don’t expect the Irish offense to hearken back to the days of Carlyle Holiday and Pat Dillingham. I expect the offense to be much more productive than that. But the point is that even a very modest offense can win a lot of games if they take care of the ball, get off a good punt, and let a very aggressive defense create turnovers and scoring opportunities.

Between a very good defense and what I expect to be improved special teams, the Irish offense doesn’t need to be spectacular. If they can be efficient and relatively error-free, the defense should give them enough opportunities in the red zone to score all the points we’ll need to have a very good year.

Game-by-Game

With my general expectations for the 2008 Notre Dame team now on the record, here are just a few thoughts from me on each of the opponents the Irish will face this year.

San Diego State University Aztecs, Sept. 6^th, Home. The Aztecs return just eleven starters from a squad that went 4-8 last year as members of the Mountain West conference. Phil Steele drops this nugget on us: SDSU is 2 wins against 24 losses in road openers, including losing the last 15 straight. They are also 2 wins vs. 10 losses out of conference over the last three seasons. Steele picks them for 8^th place in the MWC. Athlon Sports has SDSU at #104 (pre-season) in the country and 9^th in the MWC. And all that was before the Aztecs lost Saturday (at home) to Div. 1-AA Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, 29-27. I will be very disappointed (and very worried) if Notre Dame wins by less than 40 points and if we allows SDSU to score a touchdown.

University of Michigan Wolverines, Sept. 13^th, Home. It’s tempting to look at this match-up against a team that beat the Irish 38-0 last year and feel that the tables have turned 180 degrees. But that would be only half right. The tables have turned for UM. They have lost their top two QBs, top RB, top two WRs, the top 4 tacklers, and head coach from a team that was expected to compete for a National Championship last season but who was an embarrassed 0-2 when Notre Dame rolled into Ann Arbor. Yes, the Wolverines are a much younger, inexperienced team, getting to know a new coach and a new system, so in some respects they look like ND did last year. But Notre Dame hasn’t changed all that much from the team that got whipped by UM last year. We do have more stability and continuity, and our players are a little more experienced. But we’re still very young and unproven. The question for this game is whether the Irish players have matured enough, improved enough, to take advantage of UM’s transition period as new coach Rich Rodriguez tries to implement a whole new system with a lot of new faces. I expect Notre Dame to win this game, and they’ll do it because of defense. In watching UM lose to Utah on Saturday (25-23, a damn shame really), you could see that they really struggled to run Dick Rod’s newfangled spread offense. Against the Utes the vaunted Wolverines mustered a net 36 yards rushing and just 167 yards passing for a total of 203 yards of offense. They’re going to get better, but they are not going to get better against the Irish. Coaches Brown and Tenuta are going to dial up a lot of havoc that is going to make the Michigan offense remember fondly their productive day against the Utes. The Irish “D” will shut down Michigan’s spread offense, and create turnovers to give the Irish “O” easy scoring chances. While running the ball on UM will be difficult, they did give up 305 passing yards to Utah. It won’t be easy, because Michigan still has a lot of talent and athleticism on the roster, but in an unusual twist, Notre Dame will actually exploit its edge in experience to win this game.

Michigan State University Spartans, Sept. 20^th, Away. Sparty returns most of the key pieces from a team that beat the Irish 31-14 last year in Notre Dame Stadium, and despite their loss to Cal on Saturday (31-38), they actually looked pretty good and were only outgained by 65 total yards on offense (467-402). So how can Notre Dame possibly defeat MSU? By playing a conservative, efficient offensive game that avoids the big mistake and wins the field position battle. Our defense will cause Sparty some problems, and we’ll be able to move the ball at least modestly on offense. James Aldridge ran for a net 104 yards last year against MSU and a 5.8 average per carry. Robert Hughes averaged 5.5 yards per rush, and Armando Allen had 4.3 yards per carry, although the passing game struggled as Irish QBs were sacked 4 times. This year we have to win the special teams battle. In 2007 MSU punted 5 times, but ND had zero punt return yards. ND punted 9 times and gave up 28 yards in punt returns. MSU averaged 32.7 yards for their 3 kickoff returns, ND averaged just 20 yards for its 5 kickoff returns. MSU had 1 touchback to ND’s zero. That’s a lot of “hidden” yardage and it has a big impact. Notre Dame started a single possession in MSU territory, and scored a TD on that drive. MSU started at the 50-yard line or better and scored 2 TDs and 1 FG. That’s 17 points and your margin of victory. This is the toughest game in the first half of the Notre Dame schedule, but the home team in this game has lost the last seven games. That streak continues as the Irish beat MSU in a mild upset, due to MSU turnovers and big special teams play from ND.

Purdue Boilermakers, Sept. 27^th, Home. Notre Dame fell to PU 33-19 in West Lafayette last year, but as noted above actually pulled to within 7 points of the Boilers with just under 8 minutes to play in the game. Purdue returns most of its key players from last year (although they do lose 4 of their top 5 receivers), but I pick the Irish to win this game comfortably. We lost last year despite out-passing (377 to 252) and out-gaining (426 to 371) Purdue. It’s a recurring theme, but penalties, turnovers, and special teams play cost us the game in 2007. In the 2008 re-match ND cleans up those problems and takes care of business.

Stanford Cardinal, Oct. 4^th, Home. Second year coach Jim Harbaugh is doing some good things on the farm, and his teams are going to cause trouble in the Pac-10, as evidenced by Stanford’s nice victory over THE Oregon State University (36-28) on Thursday night. They return 16 starters from the team that gave Notre Dame all it wanted last November in Palo Alto, a slopfest the Irish won 21-14. Stanford’s going to be better this year, but so are the Irish, and this one’s at our place. Stanford will be playing its fourth road game in a five week stretch when comes to South Bend. As excerpted in the “Overall Expectations” section above, Notre Dame’s offense was horribly inefficient against the Cardinal in ’07. Clausen & Co. will clean that up, and the defense will be disruptive enough that Stanford will falter in front of 80,795 Fighting Irish faithful.

University of North Carolina Tar Heels, Oct. 11^th, Away. Wow. There’s a lot of pre-season love for the Tar Heels. Phil Steele ranks UNC #38 in the pre-season and #2 in his list of “Most Improved Teams” for 2008. Athlon has them at #37 pre-season. But while Athlon predicts a “W” for the Tar Heels over Athlon’s 60^th ranked Notre Dame, Steele has the Irish ranked #1 “Most Improved Team” and ranked #19 in the pre-season. I’ll admit all the hype had me a little worried about this game. And then they started playing the actual games and Carolina had to mount a second half comeback to hold off Div. 1-AA McNeese State, at home, 35-27. Whew! I do expect UNC to be better as Butch Davis builds his program, but I don't think they're anything special this year. Notre Dame travels to the basketball school and takes care of business in a close game.

University of Washington Huskies, Oct. 25^th, Away. The "Bye" week comes at a good time so that the Irish can rest up and re-focus before flying all the way to Seattle to take on Ty Willingham's pack of vicious animals. Jake Locker, blah, blah, blah. The media will have a field day with the Weis vs. Willingham angle, but the steam has gone out of that a bit since UW has been so mediocre under TW, and since Willingham has been so visibly awful at recruiting for the Huskies. Folks are talking about an "improved" Washington team, but Phil Steele interprets "improved" to mean 8^th in the Pac-10, while Athlon predicts a 7^th place finish in conference. Washington opened the season at Oregon, and got worked 44-10, with most of the damage done by the Ducks' backup QB, as UW's heralded Locker was 12 of 28 passing for 103 yards and 57 yards rushing. Somehow I think the Irish defense will hold its own against a QB that's completing passes at a 43% clip. The UW defense also gave up 496 yards to Oregon, an average gain of 6.9 yards per play. Notre Dame beats the Huskies, handily. In an ironic twist, Notre Dame will play a role in getting TW fired for a second time.

University of Pittsburgh Panthers, Nov. 1^st, Home. Yet another team that had a lousy 2007 but is getting a lot of love from the media in the pre-season. Athlon has Pitt #27 overall and 4^th in the Big East. Phil Steele has the #25 overall and 3^rd in the Big East. Which is all good until Bowling Green rolled into town on Saturday. After Pitt opened up a 14-0 lead, BG rallied with 27 unanswered points and won going away 27-17. Pitt's highly touted LeSean McCoy was held to 71 yards on 23 carries. The last meeting between Pitt and ND was in 2005. It was a highly anticipated showdown between Charlie Weis and Dave Wannstedt, each in their first games coaching their new teams. Brady Quinn led the Irish to a beatdown of the Panthers, 42-21. I have seen nothing from Pitt since then that leads me to believe Wannstedt will out-coach Charlie Weis this time around. This is a bit of a trap game for Pitt, being a road game sandwiched between home games against Rutgers and Louisville. I like the Irish at home.

Boston College Eagles, November 8^th, Away. The Eagles are expected to take a step back this season, as they lost their star QB Matt Ryan to the NFL, and also lost their top three RBs. They opened this season with a rather modest 21-0 win over Kent State. As of right now they're favored to beat ND for a sixth straight time (!!!!). But by this 9^th game of the season I expect Notre Dame to be rolling. With eight games playing together, the offensive line has gelled and is playing well. The young receivers have matured and gained confidence, so Jimmy Clausen is turning heads with some gaudy highlight-reel throws. The defense has become dominant and the Irish finally snap BC's annoying streak.

United States Naval Academy Midshipmen, Nov. 15^th, Home. Congratulations to Navy for ending their 43-year losing streak against the Irish last season. This year marks the beginning of a new streak.

Syracuse University Orange, Nov. 22^nd, Home. Their mascot is a color. The color orange. Or is it the fruit? They won two games in 2007, Athlon predicts they'll win two in 2008. They opened this season with a 30-10 loss to Northwestern. I'll take the Irish at home.

University of Southern California Trojans, Nov. 29th, Away. I watched the Trojans' opener against Virginia, which they won 52-7. I looked closely for vulnerabilities, for signs that Mark Sanchez isn't up to the job. I saw none. USC, 2008 edition, looks every bit like the USC of the last several seasons. I'm as delusional as the next Domer, but while I won't rule anything out as being within the realm of possibility, I just hope that the Irish are more respectable against the Trojans than we've been the past two seasons.

Final Thoughts. Do I really think Notre Dame will finish the 2008 season 11-1? No. While I sincerely believe the Irish could, or even should, win each of their first 11 games, I also expect that a team as young as the Irish will have some untimely penalties and turnovers, or just come out flat, and let a couple of games get away from them. Counting the likely loss to USC, I expect nine wins, give or take one. Of course, a lot has to go right for nine wins to happen. But after last year I figure the Irish are due a little luck.