Showing posts with label recruiting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recruiting. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Thoughts on Coach Kelly


My Dad reminded me a few weeks ago that I hadn't yet chimed in with my opinion on Brian Kelly being hired as the new head football coach at Notre Dame. He was right, as he often is, but at the time I didn't really have anything intelligent to add to the conversation beyond "Yippee!" I wasn't surprised by the hire, as loyal OC Domer readers will recall that I confidently posted here on November 18th that his hiring was "all but a done deal." And of course I am extremely pleased that Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick targeted and landed a coach who was arguably the most qualified candidate he could have possibly lured to South Bend and a man who is easily the best prepared head football coach Notre Dame has hired since Lou Holtz.

To me, Coach Kelly perfectly fits the model that has produced National Championships for Notre Dame in the past. As I wrote during the long November of 2009 when we were all waiting for the curtain to come down on Charlie Weis' tenure at ND:

For me, the preferred model is the one that has made Notre Dame most successful in the past. Hire a coach who has been a very successful college head coach elsewhere. Find a guy who has displayed a knack for over-achieving at a "lesser" program, of doing "more" with "less." Frank Leahy was very successful at Boston College before coming to Notre Dame. Ara Parseghian won at Northwestern. Dan Devine won at Arizona State and Missouri. Lou Holtz won at William & Mary, North Carolina State, and Arkansas.
I don't think people truly appreciate how important experience and sustained success as a head coach is as a predictor of future success. People tend to think of Ara Parseghian as a young "up and comer" that we snatched away from Northwestern. But did you know that Ara was the head coach at Miami University for five years and at Northwestern for eight season before landing the Notre Dame job? That's thirteen years of incredibly important experience in the top job before coming to ND. Dan Devine had spent three years as head coach at Arizona State, thirteen years as head coach at Mizzou, and four years as head coach of the Green Bay Packers before coaching under the Golden Dome. That's twenty years as a head coach in Division I and the NFL. Lou Holtz's head coaching career before Notre Dame included three years at William & Mary, four years at N.C. State, one year with the N.Y. Jets, seven years at Arkansas and two years at Minnesota. That's seventeen years as a head coach before leading a team into Notre Dame stadium.

Contrast the above list of Championship coaches with this list: Gerry Faust (No college head coaching experience prior to ND); Bob Davie (No head coaching experience prior to ND); Ty Willingham (Seven seasons HC at Stanford); Charlie Weis (No college or Pro head coaching experience).

When looking at what has worked versus what hasn't worked historically at Notre Dame it should be painfully obvious that if you want to have a reasonable chance of football success you must hire a coach with significant experience as a head coach. Even Ty Willingham's seven years of HC experience at Stanford wasn't enough to prepare him for true success at Notre Dame. On the other hand, Brian Kelly's twenty years as a head coach at Grand Valley State, Central Michigan, and Cincinnati makes him more experienced than either Holtz or Parseghian and puts him on par with Dan Devine.

Take that twenty years of experience, give it to an Irish Catholic kid from Boston who has always dreamed of coaching at Notre Dame and who is a bundle of energy and seemingly a natural motivator and leader, and you have to expect that good things are about to happen for Notre Dame football.

So, to answer my Dad's e-mail, I'm pretty pumped about the beginning of the Brian Kelly era at Notre Dame.

Having had the time to sit back a little and watch as Coach Kelly has gone about the task of retooling the Irish football program, I do have some initial impressions that I would like to share.

Players. Coach Kelly has his own definite notions of the type of players he wants in his program. He calls them RKGs (Right Kind of Guys). He wants young men who are football players. Not necessarily the most gifted or talented guys, but guys who love the game and who will work hard to be prepared to play hard on Saturdays. He wants guys with heart and passion and work ethic and discipline. He wants guys who want to be at Notre Dame and who really, really, want to wear that gold helmet and play for the Fighting Irish. He wants guys he can trust to be selfless and committed to the team and to their teammates. Prima donnas need not apply. I think he wants Rudy, but with more size and 4.4 speed.

Of course, not every 4-star and 5-star prospect will fit the RKG mold. Many of the most talented players choose their college with one eye focused on a future NFL career. Sure, they want to win. But it's at least as much about them as an an individual pro prospect as it is about the team. It's about making highlight reel big hits rather than a sure tackle. It's about the big breakaway run rather than putting your head down and getting a first down. It's about not getting hurt rather than going all out on punt coverage.

Notre Dame is already limited in the pool of 4- and 5-star recruits we can really pursue due to above-average academic standards. That pool is clearly going to be narrowed a little bit more as Coach Kelly and his staff weed out players who are not RKG material. We may not see it this year as Coach Kelly nails down a recruiting class that was mostly selected and secured by Coach Weis' staff, but in February 2011 I think Irish fans are going to be very surprised by how the pundits rate Coach Kelly's first true class of recruits. I expect that class to be rated much lower than Charlie Weis' classes have been. Part of it will be the result of the RKG test discussed above. But a larger part will be that Coach Kelly has his own very strong opinions about the types of athletes that will perform best in his system.

I'll discuss it more below, but Coach Kelly has a very definite system and style of play that he coaches. He wants to recruit RKGs who will get the most out of his offensive and defensive system. He does not believe that Scout.com or Rivals.com are as good at evaluating prospective players as he is. If he really likes a tackle for his offense who is "only" rated a 3-star prospect, he is not going to lose sleep over it. If the 3-star guy is a better fit than available 4-star guys, he'll take the 3-star guy. I think we'll see this play out all over the depth chart, on both sides of the ball.

Now, this isn't to say that future Notre Dame recruiting classes are going to look like recent Cincinnati classes. Clearly Coach Kelly will have access to a bigger, more talented pool of RKGs than he did at Cincy. But where Charlie Weis' recruiting classes were generally Top-10 caliber and even Top-5, I fully expect Coach Kelly's classes to be in the second ten (ranked 11-20) rather than Top 10.

Not that there is anything wrong with that. One of the great laments for Irish fans in recent years (as during the Gerry Faust years) is that we keep bringing in highly touted recruiting classes, but it isn't translating into wins on Saturday. So what is happening? Are the coaches failing to develop the players to their potential? Are the players not working as hard as they should? Are the folks at Rivals.com and Scout.com who rank these players full of baloney?

I think one of Coach Weis' problems at Notre Dame was that he was prisoner to the star system. Certainly when he first arrived it was important to him to create the impression that Notre Dame was on the way back. One quick way to do that is to land some big recruits, create some buzz, and use that buzz to land more big recruits. And it worked, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Bringing in Jimmy Clausen certainly helped land other talented skill players. But were all these guys good fits for Charlie's system? Were they RKGs? Were they really as talented as their star ratings? I think Charlie paid too much heed to the star system and I think he lacked Coach Kelly's confidence in his ability to evaluate the college potential of high school football players.

So after several seasons of watching highly ranked recruiting classes under-perform on the field, I am more than willing to try another approach: Taking less-heralded RKGs and seeing them get coached up so that they over-perform on Saturday.

Coaches. Let's face it, Charlie Weis never really figured out how to evaluate and hire good coaches. Having never been a head coach, and not having any college coaching experience, the pool of guys he could draw on to join his staff based on personal relationships was small. So he had to rely on the recommendations of his NFL buddies on who would be good hires. And maybe these guys were good coaches. But they had never coached with Charlie, and they came from different systems, and in my view it never really came together as a full staff. I think the offensive staff this past season was (finally) excellent. But the Tenuta/Brown experiment on defense didn't work. The inexplicable loyalty to John Latina as O-line coach was, well, inexplicable. I don't want to dwell on it, but I file it under "lessons learned" that hiring an all-star hodge-podge of guys with no common experience is not the way to build a staff.

Coach Kelly has gone another direction. With a few exceptions his new Notre Dame staff is a group of guys that have coached with or for him before, in some cases for many years. These guys know each other, they trust each other, they know the system and trust the system. They are on the same page and pulling in the same direction from day one. (Cliche' alert!) They aren't big names or all-stars. They don't have much NFL experience. They are career college coaches who have won championships with Coach Kelly before, and who expect they will do so at Notre Dame.

The relative lack of name recognition and complete lack of Super Bowl rings will probably make recruiting just a little more challenging. But Coach Kelly isn't as worried about recruiting as he is about what happens to the players once they arrive at Notre Dame. He wants coaches who he knows can teach his system and who he knows can develop young high school players into the best college players they can be. He believes this staff of coaches will do that.

System. Through twenty years of learning and growing and evolving as a head coach, Brian Kelly knows who he is and he knows what type of football he wants to play. He has a system. It isn't an exotic or gimmicky system (although it may seem a little exotic to Notre Dame fans at first). It's a fully developed, established and de-bugged philosophy and playbook on both offense and defense. On offense they run a wide-open spread attack that features footballs flying all over the yard. On defense they run a base, balanced, aggressive 3-4.

In sharp contrast to Coach Weis' philosophy of trying to out-scheme opposing teams ("schematic advantage" anyone?), Coach Kelly's goal is to have his players learn his system inside and out and then out-play (out-execute) opponents. Rather than trying to find and exploit individual match-ups to win games, Coach Kelly is in effect telling opponents "This is who we are, this is what we do. Good luck stopping us." It reminds me of the Notre Dame teams under Lou Holtz. Under Lou everybody knew we were going to run the option or hand the ball to Jerome Bettis. Stopping it was another matter. Bill Walsh's 49er teams led by Joe Montana were similar. Opponents knew what plays the 49ers were going to run. But the plays, if executed properly, put so much pressure on a defense that they were impossible to stop.

Having a clear system has several advantages. First of all, as discussed above, it allows you to be very precise in targeting recruits that fit your program. If you are a spread offense you need nimble offensive linemen and versatile running backs who can run routes and catch the ball. Giant tackles who can drive block but who can't move laterally, or fullbacks who can't catch the ball out of the backfield are not good fits, so you don't pursue those guys. On the defensive line, you need big guys that can anchor that 3-4 defense, not pass-rushing defensive ends who can't stand up and play linebacker. Having a clear philosophy and system on both sides of the ball allows you to focus on finding RKGs that are the best fit for your program.

Second, having a clear system gives players a sense of identity and therefore a sense of confidence. They know who they are are. They know what their role is. They know what they are supposed to do. The fundamentals of the system stay the same from the time they enroll as freshman until they are getting significant playing time as juniors and seniors. Practicing the same fundamentals, the same techniques, the same playbook over a course of several seasons breeds confidence, it breeds trust in the system and in their teammates. it allows players to react on the field without having to think about it, it allows players to play faster with fewer mistakes. I'll talk more about it below, but having a familiar system that is consistent from week to week and from year to year leads to what Coach Kelly calls "unconscious competence", which means that you have become so adept that you know what to do and how to do it without even having to think about it. It becomes second nature.

Compare the above concept of an established system with a defense that changes each year from a 3-4 (with 4-3 personnel) to a 4-3, and then back to a 3-4, and that changes defensive coordinators every year. Or an offense that is experiencing a competition at quarterback among four players who are inexperienced in the base offense while trying to also install a gimmicky "wildcat" offense that will hopefully "surprise" the opening day opponent. Do you think those players are gong to be thinking a little too much on game day? Is it any wonder the O-line played in slow motion on opening day 2007 against Georgia Tech? In retrospect, to a lesser degree one has to wonder if Charlie's attempts to out "X" and "O" opponents by devising a clever new game plan every week just slowed the guys down by forcing them to think too much, rather than just executing with confidence.

Development. Listening to his press conferences and reading his interviews, it is clear that Coach Kelly believes that the way to win football games is to develop players. Not recruit players. Develop players. He believes in developing them as players on the field, and as people off the field, in the classroom, and in the community. I'll be focusing here on development as players on the field.

All the topics I discussed above tie into the concept of player development. Getting the Right Kind of Guys (RKGs) who are passionate about the game, and who are disciplined and committed and willing to work hard to become better players. He hired a coaching staff of guys he knows to be great teachers and great at helping young men reach their full potential. And he has an established system which is designed to lend itself to and reinforce the development of players.

I have heard Coach Kelly mention the concept of "unconscious competence" more than once. It's an odd phrase and one that I was not familiar with, but it seemed to be fundamental to his coaching philosophy, so I looked it up. It isn't a new concept, but it is a powerful learning model that one can easily see would lend itself perfectly to teaching football. If you look it up you'll see these concepts referred to variously as the "conscious competence ladder" or the "conscious competence model" and so forth. I found one web page that did the best job of explaining the concepts fairly succinctly, so I'm going to borrow liberally from it below, but I encourage you to go read the full article at MindTools.com if you want more information.

The conscious competence model is a conceptual way of looking at the transition from a state of blissful ignorance of a skill to mastery of that skill. It can be applied to almost any endeavor, but I'm going to look at it in the context of football.
Level 1 - Unconscious Incompetence (You Don't Know that You Don't Know)
At this level you are blissfully ignorant: You have a complete lack of knowledge and skills in the subject in question. On top of this, you are unaware of this lack of skill, and your confidence may therefore far exceed your abilities.

[COMMENT: Think about that freshman running back who dominated every game he ever played his whole life and who thinks he knows all there is to know about being a running back and that he will excel as a college back from Day 1. He has no idea how little he really knows and how much he needs to learn to play at this level]
Level 2 - Conscious Incompetence (You Know that You Don't Know)
At this level you find that there are skills you need to learn, and you may be shocked to discover that there are others who are much more competent than you. As you realize that your ability is limited, your confidence drops. You go through an uncomfortable period as you learn these new skills when others are much more competent and successful than you are.

[Comment: Think about the freshman running back who gets into Fall practice and realizes he isn't the fastest or strongest guy on the field anymore. He is having trouble reading the defense to run in the correct hole or figure out who to block. He keeps getting tackled for no gain in the scrimmages and run over by linebackers in drills.]
Level 3 - Conscious Competence (You Know that You Know)

At this level you acquire the new skills and knowledge. You put your learning into practice and you gain confidence in carrying out the tasks or jobs involved. You are aware of your new skills and work on refining them.

You are still concentrating on the performance of these activities, but as you get ever-more practice and experience, these become increasingly automatic.

[Comment: Following good teaching and coaching and repetition in the familiar system, the young running back learns how to read the defense, how to find the hole, who to block and how to block them. Now he's ready to get on the field on Saturday.]

Level 4 - Unconscious Competence (You Don't Know that You Know - It Just Seems Easy!)
At this level your new skills become habits, and you perform the task without conscious effort and with automatic ease. This is the peak of your confidence and ability.
[Comment: Now the young running back can spot the holes and pick up the blitzer without having to think about it. It's automatic and second nature. Now the player can let his natural abilities and instincts flow, and he'll be playing fast and with incredible confidence.]

It seems obvious once you read through it. And once you understand the learning model, you can see how important it is that the players are being developed within an established system. In order to play fast and with confidence, the players have to get to level four - unconscious competence. They can only get there if they get enough practice and repetitions in the fundamentals of the system to make their play reactive and automatic. Any time the coach changes the system, or introduces a new series of plays or a new defensive concept, all the players get knocked back down to level 2, conscious incompetence, and have to work their way back up to level four. With good coaching they will get to level 3, conscious competence, within a reasonable period of time. But only with a sufficient number of repetitions and practice will the team get to level 4 on the new concepts.

Under NCAA rules the coaching staff only gets so many practice hours with the team each season. They can only squeeze so many reps into that time. A choice has be made, a balance struck, between how much playbook is installed and what percentage of the time will the players be playing with unconscious competence. It is clear that Coach Kelly places a premium on running a more limited, but known system extremely well rather than installing a more diverse playbook that the players can only execute at level 3, conscious competence.

Conclusion. Having watched Coach Kelly from my perch out here in California, I have been very impressed. His enthusiasm is palpable, and from his opening press conference I had no doubt that his players will be fired up and ready to run through walls come September. Hell, I'm ready to button my chin strap and go play. I've still got four years of eligibility to burn!

But as I've examined his moves and tried to get inside his head, he is even more impressive. He is completely ready for this challenge. Not only does he know football. It's clear from the discussion of "unconscious competence" above that he has been studying leadership and psychology and teaching for the past twenty years and he is fully equipped to take the young men who choose to go to Notre Dame places even they don't realize they can go.

Welcome to Notre Dame Coach Kelly! Go Irish!

Friday, July 24, 2009

Fine, thanks. How's your summer going?

I know I've been remiss in not being more active on the blog, but I have two problems. First, the things that have really been getting me fired up are all political, and I don't want to subject all of you to a steady diet of Obama criticism with no football posts to keep things on an even keel. So I have held my tongue, so to speak. Second, it is July and nothing much is happening on the college football front. Of course, I could post every day just to keep my fingers in shape and to hear myself talk, but I prefer to write substantive posts that are thoughtfully reactive to actual events rather than manufactured topics designed just to keep you visiting the blog. But football season is approaching, the camps are getting ready to open, and I think I can just detect that "new season smell" in the air. Today I just wanted to get back into the groove by clearing the decks with a collection of quick thoughts that have been occupying my mind lately.

1. I listen to Colin Cowherd on ESPN Radio as I drive to work each morning. Erik Kuselias is sitting in for Colin today, and he spent considerable time this morning talking about Florida QB Tim Tebow. He noted that Florida is favored by many to win the National Championship, and Tebow is favored to win the Heisman. If those things happen, Kuselias contends that Tebow would be the greatest college football player of all time, and that nobody else would even be in the discussion. I think Tebow is a very good quarterback on a great football team. Being on a great team gives you a chance to win National Championships. Being a very good QB on a great team gives you the chance to win Heisman Trophies. But being a very good QB on a great team does not make one the "greatest of all time." I like Kuselias a lot (very interesting guy, and very funny) but I think he is crazy on this topic. Off the top of my head I came up with about six players who are clearly greater than Tebow, and after a couple minutes research I rounded my list out at an even ten players. The following list is my quick and subjective opinion. I didn't even get into receivers, linemen, and defensive players. Just looking at QBs and RBs, here are my Top 10 College Football Players Greater Than Tim Tebow (In No Particular Order):

1. John Elway
2. Steve McNair
3. Colt Brennan
4. Billy Sims
5. Bo Jackson
6. Barry Sanders
7. Archie Griffin
8. Tony Dorsett
9. O.J. Simpson
10. Herschel Walker
How did I do?

2. I've been watching the Tour de France. Hey, It's freaking July! Alberto Contador is clearly the best rider this year. His performance in Stage 15, pulling away from the peloton on the final climb like the other riders were standing still was simply amazing. Lance Armstrong is riding very well and has an excellent chance of finishing on the podium in Paris, which in itself is very impressive. But Contador is the Big Dog now. By the way, Versus has been broadcasting the Tour in HD this year, and the French countryside is just beautiful. France has definitely moved up my list of places I want to visit.

3. Michael Vick is a free man, and the NFL Commissioner is expected to conditionally reinstate him very soon, permitting him to sign with an NFL team and go to camp, but not allowing him to play until after serving an additional four game suspension. Like a car wreck, I'm very anxious to see what happens with Vick. To me, he has paid his debt to society, so I don't have a problem with him playing football again. But I am very interested to see what team or teams are willing to give him a chance. How much will they pay him? What role will he play? How well will he play? To me, Vick's best asset has always been his speed and his running ability, and I think he'll be way behind the curve in the passing game. I think he can make his best contribution to a team as a return man and maybe a flanker/H-Back where the threat of a reverse or a Wildcat package would keep defenses off-balance.

4. Tom Watson, at 59 years of age, came within a gray whisker of winning the British Open last weekend. Great story. But did he or did he not just punk every other player in the PGA? How bad did it make Tiger Woods and every other young player on the Tour look to have gramps kick their collective ass around Royal Turnberry for four days?

5. The Over/Under win total lines for college football are starting to trickle out. So far, the O/U for Notre Dame is 8.5 games. I'll take the over. Notre Dame should win 11 games this year. Less than 10 wins may cost Coach Weis his job. To lose on the "over" the Irish would have to lose 4 regular season games. Where could those losses possibly come from? USC, Michigan, Michigan State, and ... B.C.? Pitt? Stanford? If Notre Dame loses four games against the 2009 schedule with this roster of players then new leadership would be required.

6. Where's Waldo? I think he's rooming with former USC quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate John David Booty. Do you remember how great J.D. Booty was at USC? How he was just waiting his turn to be the next Heisman Trophy winner at USC? Yeah, well he's still in Minnesota, sitting behind Tavaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and maybe Brett Favre on the Vikings' depth chart. I wonder if John David will give up his #4 jersey when Favre shows up in Mankato? And what about Heisman Trophy winner and National Champion Matt Leinart? Is he still sitting on the bench behind a 38-year-old grocery store stock-boy and Arena Football League league player Kurt Warner? Well, yes he is. All of which is a prelude to the question: How good is Mark Sanchez, really? Is he the next Carson Palmer? Or the next J.D. Booty? USC quarterbacks have the tremendous advantage of playing with a supporting staff of NFL-caliber players at every position. Their defenses are dominant. They are harassed in the pocket, and their receivers are generally wide open. They lose all those advantages at the next level. I still think Brady Quinn is better than any of the recent crop of USC quarterbacks, and I think we'll finally get the chance to see it this season. Go Browns!

7. Are you on Facebook yet? If not, you're just about the only one. Just a quick tidbit for you. My daughter will be a freshman at Notre Dame this year. (Woo-Hoo!). Earlier this summer she got her official Notre Dame e-mail address. The very first thing she did with it was to add it to her Facebook profile, so she could join the official Notre Dame network on Facebook. She also quickly joined the University of Notre Dame Class of 2013 group on Facebook. That group already has over 1,600 members. Think about that for a minute. Notre Dame enrolls about 2,000 students as freshmen each year. School doesn't start for this year's freshman for another month. There is no official University requirement or even suggestion that students should join Facebook. Yet 80% of this year's incoming freshman are already part of the ND Class of 2013 group on Facebook. That blows me away.

8. Speaking of Brett Favre. I really hope he plays. I love the NFL, although I'm not a huge fan of any particular team. I just love good games, and I love watching Brett play. I also hope he makes a decision soon, as I think it's a little unfair to the Vikes to keep them hanging this long. Of course, it has entered my mind that his "conflicting" emotions about whether he wants to play is really code for: "It's going to take more cash than what you've offered me to get me in purple."

9. I wrote previously about how cool it would be for Notre Dame to play Army in the new Yankee Stadium. Pencil it in. November 20, 2010. Road Trip!

10. Coach Weis and his staff have been working hard on the recruiting front, and the number of verbal commitments to the 2010 freshman class is already up to thirteen. This is great news as it shows that Coach Weis and Notre Dame can still attract quality kids to the University. I don't blog recruiting much, because (1) I have a life, and (2) I have a life. But seriously, it's a crapshoot. Projecting high school kids to the next level is very difficult. Kids mature at different rates. 5-star kids don't pan out. 3-star recruits surprise the heck out of you. Kids get hurt, buried on the depth chart, lost to academic or other problems. Think about this: We're all excited/anxious about how good Defensive End Justin Utupo will be and he won't set foot on campus until more than a year from now, and likely won't play significant minutes for two or three years. I'm still waiting to see how good Emeka Nwankwo, Steve Paskorz, and Mike Ragone are going to be, and they've been on campus since 2007. But I do have a couple thoughts on recruiting this year. First, a hearty OC Domer welcome to each of the thirteen verbal commits for 2010! I hope you all continue to feel the way you do about Notre Dame and honor your non-binding verbal commitment to the University. Second, I know it's early, and as I said I don't watch it that closely, but I get the sense this class so far is a little heavy on 3-star recruits and a little light on 4-star and 5-star players. Of the thirteen commits, we have one who is rated 5-stars on both Rivals and Scout, we have one who is rated 4-stars on both services. We have seven players rated seven total stars (4/3 or 3/4) on the two services, and six commits rated six total stars (3 & 3) on Rivals and Scout. I know the top 4- and 5-star kids tend to wait until later in the cycle to commit, but I would welcome someone pointing me to a good argument that we're right on target compared to Coach Weis' previous classes.

11. President Obama held a press conference earlier this week in which he urged Congress and the American people to pass a health care reform bill that hasn't even been written yet and with which not even he is familiar. In his remarks the President stated that two-thirds of the costs of implementing his proposed health care system would come from more efficiently utilizing the money that is already being spent on the system. In other words, the President is asking us to believe that the new system will be "revenue neutral" because a plan drafted by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and implemented by Barack Obama will achieve hundreds of billion of dollars' worth of improved "efficiencies" annually. When was the last time you heard of the government taking over a complex program and making it markedly more efficient? Are public schools more efficient? Are public hospitals right now more efficient? Does the Government erect buildings, stadiums, airports, etc... more efficiently than the private sector? But here's one data point to consider: In April, President Obama directed the members of his cabinet to find $100 million in budget cuts for 2009, and gave them a 90-day deadline to accomplish this task. At the time, everyone laughed because in the context of $1 Trillion stimulus packages, $100 million is a laughably small amount. Well, the 90-day deadline has come and gone and we're still waiting for the President and his cabinet to identify the $100 million in "cuts" for 2009. The White House has promised that the list of cuts is on the way. But the point is, $100 million is chump change, and the President is having a hard time finding $100 million in improved "efficiencies." If you can't easily identify $100 million is "savings" how do you expect us to believe you can magically produce hundreds of billions of dollars in annual savings in the health care sector? It is time for the American people to stop judging President Obama on his empty promises and to start holding him to account for his actual performance.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Aloha, Manti Te'o! Welcome to the Family


Obviously the biggest news for Irish fans on National Signing Day was that Notre Dame landed Hawaii's stud linebacking prospect Manti Te'o. This may be the biggest recruiting success story of Charlies Weis' tenure, excepting only the Jimmy Clausen signing. A head-to-head win against USC for an elite defensive player is big news - and Te'o seems like a young man of tremendous character as well. Congratulations to Manti as he joins the Notre Dame family (he'll be in the same entering class as the OC Domer Daughter), and congratulations to Coach Weis and his entire staff for a job well done.

The other big news on the day is that it appears all the verbal commits stuck with the Irish and faxed in their signed Letters of Intent. A job well done to hold the class together.

It will be interesting to see how the services rank this class with the addition of Te'0.

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

D-Day Minus-1

Look, I'll admit that new Irish O-line coach Frank Verducci is sort of handsome in a New Jersey way (if not in a SoCal way), but I'm tired of seeing his mug at the top of my blog, so I have to throw something up here.

National Signing Day for high school football recruits is tomorrow, so the geekiest of all the Notre Dame football fans are working themselves up into a lather about which 18 year old kids will commit to Our Lady's University tomorrow and which will plunge a dagger into our little green hearts by choosing to play football (and possibly attend classes) at a lesser institution.

I, for one, have my fingers crossed. But other than that, I'm trying not to let all the hype and speculation get to me. Right now, Notre Dame's incoming class looks solid, although not currently rated as high as the last two classes. I think part of the reason for the lower ranking is that we have fewer players from the "flash" positions in this class (like QB and WR), and also have commitments from a 3-star kicker, a 3-star punter a 2-star long snapper, and a 3-star Golic. The stars of the class as of today are 5-star RB Cierre Wood, 5-star OG Chris Watt, and 4-star players coming in at DT, RB, WR, OG, OT and S. If those guys stick tomorrow and don't pull a spectacular signing day stunt, we'll have a very solid class, especially considering the uncertainty that surrounded Charlie Weis' future just a few short weeks ago.

The biggest suspense surrounds Hawaii LB Manti Te'o, who is expected to be a huge impact player in the middle of the defense wherever he goes. He has narrowed the field to ND, USC and UCLA after surprising everyone by telling BYU he was taking them off his final list. Te'o took an official recruiting visit to USC last weekend, and rumors are swirling that he wasn't overly impressed by the Trojans. If true, that would bode extremely well for Irish chances of landing him. Luring Te'o to South bend would be an enormous win for Charlie Weis and his staff. Not only do the Irish badly need a player of that caliber at linebacker (he's just like Mo Crum except he's bigger, faster, more athletic, more aggressive, has better football instincts and more talent), it would be a win in a head-to-head battle against Pete Carroll and USC. You have to win your share of those battles to remain credible with recruits in future years.

Because I'm hopelessly and unrealistically optimistic when it comes to Notre Dame football, I expect Coach Weis to have at least a couple of surprises (good surprises) in store for the Irish faithful tomorrow, ending up with a class rated in the Top 15, if not the Top 10.

Off-Topic. I really enjoyed the Super Bowl on Sunday, but as has become the norm for that annual spectacle, most of the buzz from the game revolves around the commercials and the half-time show. We're big Springsteen fans at OC Domer HQ, so we enjoyed watching the Boss perform for the whole world and I thought he did a terrific job. The commercials were, on the whole, a bit of a let down. To me, the best commercial of the day wasn't even shown during the game, but just before and after the game. It was an E*Trade ad that I thought was much better than the E*Trade commercial they chose to air during the game itself. So, to give folks a diversion from the stress of National Signing Day I offer the OC Domer choice for the best commercial from Super Sunday:

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Saturday, April 19, 2008

Morning Wood

Happy Blue-Gold Day! Just a couple of quick hits before we here at OC Domer get going on a day full of lacrosse and Angels Baseball.

The BIG NEWS is that Cierre Wood, listed by many as the nation's top running back prospect for next year's recruiting class, verbally committed to Coach Weis and Notre Dame during his unofficial visit to campus this morning. If this is true, it would be a HUGE way to kick off the new recruiting cycle (no disrespect to young Jake Golic, who already committed but who doesn't carry the same cache'). Hopefully the reports are true, and this will get the ball rolling!

The other "news" is the unveiling of the "The Shirt" for 2008. Background on the shirt is here. Best pictures of the shirt are here.

I just have a hard time getting into "The Shirt." Who's the flabby, slow-looking white guy? Is he supposed to be a kicker? A symbol, perhaps, that our kicking game will improve to just mediocre (instead of God-awful) this year? You couldn't throw a picture of a determined David Bruton on there? Or a pumped up Robert Hughes? Or a snarling Coach Tenuta? Sheesh.

ND will rise again? Sounds like "the South will rise again", which is a sad joke because folks in the South have been vowing to "rise again" for 150 years, without success. (There's a great "South will rise again" parody at TheOnion.com which I can't get out of my head when I look at The Shirt).

"The Shirts" were better when they were done by the students, spontaneously, and when they were for specific big games and had a real edge to them (usually involving a nasty insult to the opposing team). It meant something to have "the shirt" that was made for a big USC game, or a Miami game, or an important Michigan contest. The Shirt today is so darn corporate vanilla that I just can't get into it.

But I like the blue.

Pat at BGS informs me that students still make "bootleg" shirts for big games. Bootleg?! What does that mean? The student shirts used to be the only "real" shirts. Now they're considered "bootleg"? What's the world coming to?!

Anyway, I hope everyone has a great day at the "2008 Blue-Gold Spring Football Festival, presented by Home Run Inn Pizza!"

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Welcome Notre Dame Class of 2012!

Just a few very quick thoughts on the recently concluded recruiting cycle.

  1. Let's have a big OC Domer welcome to all the members of the Notre Dame graduating class of 2012. Yes, that's right, graduating class of 2012, because unlike many "premiere" football "schools" we at ND actually provide our kids with a world-class education and a meaningful college degree - in four years. There will no doubt be a few exceptions, but most of these young men will don a cap, gown, and tassel in May of 2012 and get their diploma just like Coach Weis promised their moms they would.
  2. Congratulations to Coach Weis and the rest of the staff for bringing in one of the top classes in America in talent, and the top class in America in character - no matter what ESPN says. I was very impressed by how many of these young men committed to the Irish before, or even during, the worst football season in University history and stuck by their commitment to the very end. That tells me all I need to know about the caliber of young man we are recruiting, and I pledge right now to always keep that in mind when writing about the performance of these guys on the field. Even when things go wrong, and the level of play is not up to our level of expectation, these are fine young men who should be respected as people even if they are being critiqued as football players.
  3. I guess Coach Weis gets a big "I told you so" on the rest of us. When the Irish lost out on a couple of big recruits at the last minute last February, he told us all he was going to reinvent the process to prevent that from happening again. He was largely scoffed at for his remarks at the time, but the reality is that he re-wrote the rules on how recruiting should be done, and his plan bore a bounty of fruit this year. The fact that he was able to analyze a problem and come up with an original solution that yielded positive results makes me optimistic that the other changes he recently announced with regard to coaching style and play calling may well be similarly successful.
  4. While I am very excited about the infusion of talent that Coach Weis has brought into the program, I must remain only guardedly optimistic (rather than wildly optimistic). With respect to recruiting, we've seen this story before. For three years running - 1981, 1982, 1983 - Gerry Faust brought the #1 recruiting class in the nation to Notre Dame. Notre Dame did not win a bowl game with any of those classes, and the Irish failed to crack the Top 20 in the final Associated Press Poll until they were ranked #17 at the end of the 1987 season (the season after most of the 1983 recruiting class would have graduated). As much as we have lamented the lack of talent in the program (and by "we" I mean Boob Davie, Ty Willingham, and Mark May), talent has to be well coached in order to translate into wins. Coach Weis has just about used up the benefit of the doubt he was getting on the talent side of the equation. Now it's time to coach that talent up. To coin a phrase, 3-and-9 is not good enough.
  5. One reason I am a little skeptical that this new class will make huge contributions on the field this season is the lessons we learned from 2007. The first lesson was that true freshman players, at any position, have a hard time getting on the field and being truly ready to play. The learning curve is just very steep, and we saw how our young players, even though they had a world of talent, struggled early in the season. The second reason is that when you look at the depth chart, the positions where you might expect freshman to have a chance to play (generally the skill positions) are already occupied by talented young guys who survived the trial by fire last year, and the positions where we have most need (generally in the line) are the positions where guys usually need a year or two of physical development before they can be really effective. Dayne Crist is great, but he's probably not going to push Clausen for playing time in the first season. We have three terrific running backs who got a lot of time last season (Aldridge, Hughes, Allen) - are true freshman going to pass all of them on the depth chart? Michael Floyd is a stud - but he has to get by Duval Kamara and Golden Tate, among others, to get on the field. I'm sure there will be a glaring exception or two (tight end?), but for the most part the Irish will have to compete and win next year with the same guys who went 3-9 last year.
I'll finish with a few non-recruiting thoughts.
  1. Great hire to get Jon Tenuta. Frankly, I can't believe he was available.
  2. I like the decision to empower the offensive staff to put together the game plan and call the plays. When Charlie was calling plays I think he sometimes outsmarted himself by calling plays that should theoretically work in spectacular fashion (but that failed for lack of execution) rather than calling plays that would reliably work for a first down. When Charlie first came in he had at his disposal an uneven distribution of talent, and he did a great job of using scheme and X's and O's to get the most out if that talent. But the program is ready to enter a new phase. Beginning soon, the Irish aren't going to out-scheme opponents, we're going to out-play them. Our O-line will block better than your D-line rushes, our receivers will beat your DBs, and our QB will deliver the ball in stride. We'll no longer need to call exotic plays in an attempt to mask talent deficiencies. Coach Haywood, being closer to the players, will be in a good position to call plays based upon what is working and who is hot. And hopefully he won't allow his gaudy reputation as a genius play caller to interfere with calling a solid and effective, if un-spectacular game.
  3. Maybe Coach Weis can use some of his spare time to help Coach Latina with the offensive line. I predicted last year that the season would hinge on the play of the O-line, and I was right. With an improving defense and capable players at the skill positions, I believe the same thing is true this year - maybe more so. The defense is good, but possibly thin on the defensive line. The offense has to control the ball this season so that the D-line doesn't get absolutely worn out. And the offense has to score some points so that our opponents can't just grind it out on the ground. We have some talented outside pass rushers and an effective secondary that can defend the pass once our opponents are forced to take to the air. But a thin (young) D-line and linebackers who aren't real run stuffers could be vulnerable to a punishing running attack if we're playing from behind.
When does Spring ball start? I'm going through serious football withdrawals.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Coach Weis Building Bionic Quarterbacks

Todd Marinovich, of the USC Trojans and the Oakland Raiders, was known to many as the "Robo-QB" because of how his father molded and programmed him to play the quarterback position from a very early age. But it seems that Notre Dame football coach Charlie Weis is in the process of manufacturing a new generation of Robo-QBs, and the latest model comes off the production line with a titanium-reinforced spine. One can quickly spot the benefits of this new feature for the QB of the future. Quarterbacks with titanium spines will have great pocket presence, standing tall in the face of even the fiercest pass rush. Nobody will be able to accuse these new QBs of lacking the "backbone" to play the position at pressure-cooker Notre Dame.

Personally, I would have thought the first QB body parts to reinforce with titanium would have been the knees, or perhaps, given recent experience, the throwing elbow. But I'm sure Coach Weis has thought about this in more depth than I have, and he certainly knows quarterbacks better than I do. On the other hand, maybe there was more to Jimmy Clausen's surgery last Spring than we've been told?

But seriously, you can't help but root for Dan McCarthy. I hope he has a successful rehab and is soon pushing for playing time. I must say, despite the debacle that was the 2007 football season, I have rarely failed to be very impressed by the character of the young men Charlie is bringing into the program. He is finding and bringing to South Bend true "Notre Dame Men." These are guys who know where they want to be, and who are willing to have their spines surgically repaired for the chance to compete for a QB job against two of the highest-profile quarterback prospects to come out of high school in the past two years. Folks have been critical of Charlie Weis, but he clearly has been able to connect with these kids and their families. Whatever it is he's selling - I'm buying!

Thursday, July 26, 2007

The Dog Days of July


July is killing me. Football is still more than a month away. Baseball is in the boring middle part of the schedule. The insufferable NBA & NHL are finally over for another year. As bad as both sports are to watch, at least they give sports fans something to listen to as background noise while they go about their lives. The top sports stories in the news are (1) NFL superstar Michael Vick is a sadistic prick, (2) An NBA referee making about $250k per year was gambling on and apparently influencing the outcome of NBA games, (3) A UCLA assistant football coach has been arrested for suspicion of residential burglary, (4) Matt Leinart either is or isn't a bad father, (5) Hank Aaron's home run record is about about to be broken by one of the biggest jerks to ever play the game, and (6) The drug scandals of the Tour de France make MLB's steroid problems look quaint by comparison.

July sucks. For college football bloggers trying to keep their blogs fresh and interesting, this is a very tough time. How tough? Blue-Gray Sky is the best blog in the blogosphere on Notre Dame football. The guys over there are original, creative, talented, tenacious, meticulous, and fanatical about the Fighting Irish. But July is so bad that the folks at BGS have resorted to posting a series of "what if" articles about key moments in Irish history. What if the Irish had beaten USC in 2005? What if Urban Meyer had landed in South Bend instead of the Southeastern Conference? Don't get me wrong, the articles are very thoughtful, detailed, and well written. But it kind of reminds me of the guys sitting at the bar after a few beers who start talking about high school, and about how different things might have turned out if only Coach had given me a fair chance to be the starting fullback. Or how life would be so much better if only that cute cheerleader had gone with me to the prom instead of that good-for-nothing Matt Leinart. It's a great discussion, especially with the beer flowing, but at the end of the day it doesn't mean a whole lot. You didn't get that scholarship to State U, and Betty has been a pretty good wife to you despite your being a knucklehead.

There a couple of Notre Dame related items worth commenting on:

1. Coach Weis lost his medical malpractice suit against the doctors who nearly killed him. Not a big surprise. This case was always a bit of an oddity. Given his current financial position and his professional position, I never thought the case was about money for Charlie. I always felt it had to be about principle. I have assumed that Coach Weis really felt that his doctors badly botched the surgery and should be accountable for that, or that he was so angry about the pain his coma and near death caused his family that he felt he owed it to them to try to get some satisfaction. In any case, his lawyers have said there will be no appeal, so Coach can now return his focus 100% to football.

2. I wrote earlier about my hope/prediction that Notre Dame would schedule Alabama as our opponent for one of the two "barnstorming" games to be played in Orlando in 2011 and 2014. Apparently Coach Saban and/or Alabama fans are only kidding when they say they want to play Notre Dame, because when I floated the idea to Crimson Tide Nation, they came up with all sorts of reasons why my idea just won't work.

There is no way Alabama is going into a one off game for an appearance fee, even if it is against Notre Dame.

As appealing as the idea of playing ND in one of these open spots is, it is largely unworkable though because we already have out of conference road games in 2011 (at Penn State) and 2014 (at Georgia Tech) and I don't see us playing six road games in a year. I think only playing four road games a year is too little, but playing six is way too much. The only way the 2011 or 2014 dates could even conceivably work would be to do a 50/50 revenue split (which would also include splitting the tickets evenly) since that would leave us with only six home games.

That sounds almost as weak as our own "I don't know where we'd put them." Let's be honest, 'Bama fans, you'll never agree to play the Irish unless it's in your house. You won't come to South Bend. Heck, you won't even come to Orlando. So please tell Coach Saban to stop flapping his gums about scheduling unless he really means what he's saying. Which would be the first time he has ever meant what he says.

3. The Notre Dame recruiting class of 2008 is now "standing room only." The latest verbal commitment brings the total already on board for next February's signing day to 19. Steven Filer is a highly rated linebacker from Chicago. Let's parse that sentence. "Highly rated" means four or five stars, depending upon who you ask. We are starting to take these four and five star guys for granted, but it was not long ago at all that we were recruiting three-star classes with a light sprinkling of four-star players. "Linebacker" is significant because our recruiting on defense has not been up to par in recent years. Filer is yet another top recruit on the defensive side of the ball. The strength of this class on defense is what will set it apart from Coach Weis' first two classes. "Chicago" is the hometown of new defensive coordinator Corwin Brown. Under coaches Davie and Willingham the pipeline of Chicago-area talent into Notre Dame had been almost completely shut off. Coach Weis has committed to re-opening that pipeline, and with the arrival of Coach Brown the Irish are now drinking from a fire hose, figuratively speaking. All signs point to this class of 2008 being one of the most important recruiting classes in Notre Dame history. I have two major questions about the Irish this Fall, and they are both relevant to this recruiting class. First, will Coach Brown be as good a defensive coordinator as he is a recruiter? If Corwin can coach these kids as well as he woos them, we'll be a very good defensive team very soon. Second, are the young kids we are recruiting good enough to get onto the field right away? Notre Dame has some areas of need, and our success over the next couple of years will be determined by how quickly we can get the young kids on the field.

4. Put OC Domer down as a "NO" on the 7-4-1 scheduling plan. Many Domers have been calling for Kevin White's head for several years. A persuasive case can be made that for all the good he has done for the athletic program as a whole, he has botched some key decisions when it comes to football. I have generally given AD White the benefit of the doubt in the past. It has been my feeling that he has done a good job overall of improving the facilities for the athletic department as a whole (including football). I feel that the across-the-board competitiveness of Irish teams in men's and women's sports has been very good under White's tenure, despite the disappointment we have felt with the football program. I do not agree that Dr. White does not get the "Notre Dame Way." Under Kevin White, the academic success of our student-athletes has been excellent, and the integrity with which he and the coaches have run the program has been largely beyond reproach.

Originally, I thought Dr. White's "barnstorming" idea was intriguing. Let's get out into the countryside and play some opponents we don't normally face. It will help recruiting, and it will give our fans in other parts of the country a chance to see the Irish play. Unfortunately, the implementation of the plan has been flawed. The major flaw is that Dr. White is treating these "barnstorming" games as virtual home games. Thus, virtually all gate revenue, concessions, parking, and television revenue would belong to Notre Dame. Which sounds good, until you walk through the ramifications. For "virtual" home games you can only schedule teams who would essentially be willing to play you at home (in South Bend). These teams come in two classes. First are high-caliber programs that Irish fans would love to see a game against. This class of teams will not come to Notre Dame Stadium (or anywhere else) on a one-time basis. They will not risk recording an "L" in a tough road game without some serious "quid" for their "pro quo." The "quid" is almost always a "home-and-home" agreement. But Dr. White can't offer "home-and-home" agreements for these virtual home games because it knocks the 7-4-1 concept all out of whack. You end up a 7-5 home/away schedule every other year, on average, which defeats the whole purpose of the neutral site games. The other "quid" that might work would be a 50-50 revenue split. For the national exposure, the recruiting exposure outside their home markets, the chance to play Notre Dame somewhere other than in South Bend, top teams might well meet us in Orlando and risk an out-of-conference "L" for half the cash. To me, this makes the most sense. We already have the revenue of seven home games locked up, and a marquee neutral site match-up would bring in a lot of money even at a 50% share. Add to that the benefit of playing top opponents at neutral sites and you have a winner. Sadly, AD White wants his cake and he wants to eat it too. He wants all the neutral site revenue for the Irish. This approach effectively rules out any chance of playing high-caliber opponents.

Which leaves the Irish with the second class of teams - those that would be willing to come to South Bend on a one-time basis for a decent check. This option is unacceptable.

If I am lucky, I get to one Notre Dame football game per year. When I get to see the Irish play, it is special for me, special for my family. Usually I see ND vs. USC in the Coliseum. Sometimes it's against Stanford on "the farm." If the Irish play in the Fiesta Bowl or other nearby bowl game, I try to get to that. Every once in a while I get back to Notre Dame's campus for a home game. Here's my philosophy on going to a Notre Dame football game: If it's a great game against a traditional power, I would gladly go anywhere to watch it. If it's a game a against a lesser opponent but at a neat venue (like a cool college campus or historical stadium), I will go to enjoy the overall experience of visiting another school. If it's a home game, I will gladly go back to South Bend to see the campus again despite a weak opponent or bad weather. But if we're playing a lackluster opponent in Orlando or San Antonio I'm not spending a nickel to see that game. I will sit at home and watch the game in high-definition on my new 60" widescreen television. Why in the world would I travel to San Antonio to watch ND play Washington State? I've been to San Antonio. It's overrated. Way overrated. If I'm going to watch ND play WSU, I want to go to Pullman, Washington and see another Pac-10 campus that I haven't visited yet. I'm willing to watch the Irish play some of these lesser opponents, if there is a good reason to go.

Give me a reason to go to the games: (1) great match-up, (2) chance to see Notre Dame campus again, (3) fun road trip to another school. The way Dr. White is putting these games together he is adding neutral site games that would be more appealing if they were either true road games or true home games. More appealing for fans, anyway. If you want to play in Texas, schedule a home-and-home with A&M. If you want to play in Florida, schedule home-and-home with FSU. If you want to play the Crimson tide, what would be more fun than a home-and-home against Nick Saban? We can make room. We don't need to play Stanford, Purdue, USAFA, or even Michigan State every damn year. We don't have to play UM every year, if we are picking up 'Bama or Texas instead. But under Kevin White's "plan" Notre Dame gets the revenue of one more home game every year, instead of every-other-year. Notre Dame has a history of being pretty shrewd financially, but a pure money grab for the sake of just the money is not the "Notre Dame Way."

July sucks.

Monday, July 2, 2007

College Football Preview Rags: The Sporting News

The college football preview magazines for the 2007 season have come out, and for true CFB junkies, these rags are just about the only thing that keeps us sane between the Spring game and the opening day of Fall practice. Dark days. So I grabbed a couple of this year's editions off the shelf at my local supermarket, and eagerly sat down to soak up the goodness.


What a fool I am!

This post will likely be the first of a sporadic series of posts reviewing the preview rags, from the perspective of a rabid Notre Dame fan. First up is the Sporting News, which apparently has very little respect for Notre Dame generally, and Head Football Coach Charlie Weis in particular. I'll generally work from the front of the magazine to the back, taking the insults and outrages in the order in which they offend.

1. Toughest Schedules. On Page 4, TSN editors give the Irish credit for having the 2nd toughest schedule in the land, behind only Florida State. But while giving with one hand they slap Notre Dame a backhanded compliment with the other hand. Noting our brutal schedule, they can't help but drop in a snarky reference to our unofficial competition for the Commander-in-Chief's trophy because we play service academies. So, to the guys at Sporting News, having the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation isn't good enough. Should we drop the academies and play half the SEC too?

2. Bowl projections. On page 6 TSN has nice grid laying out the Bowl game predictions of two experts (Tom Dienhart and Matt Hayes), followed by the Sporting News' projection. Both of the named experts project the Irish into the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day. Dienhart has us playing Florida State, Hayes has us playing Virginia Tech. I can live with that. I admit I don't expect the Irish to make it to a BCS Bowl game this year, and the Gator is a respectable alternative. Either of these opponents are worthy, the location, date, and history are respectable. So what is the Sporting News projection for the Irish? The Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas on December 31st against Oregon State. A decidedly less prestigious game. Why does Sporting News have a significantly less favorable view of the Irish than the two experts whose names actually appear in this feature? No explanation is offered. Just a good chance to take an anonymous swipe at Notre Dame.

3. Gotta See Games. Page 7 has a list of "Gotta See Games." LSU appears in three games. Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, and USC each play in two of these games. Notre Dame has "zero" games listed as "Gotta See." So there's no need for you to tune in and catch the Irish against Michigan, USC, Penn State, or even in their historic return to the Rose Bowl against UCLA.

4. Upsets. On page 8 TSN lists 56 that "if they happen, will turn stomachs and quash dreams." Pretty wishy-washy description. They aren't actually predicting the upsets, but seem to be warning of possible upsets. Hey, on any given Saturday .... Of the 56 upsets listed, Notre Dame figures directly in only one - a possible upset loss to Purdue. Ouch. But the Irish figure indirectly in several other games flagged as possible upsets. Purdue (the same team that Notre Dame needs to watch out for) is tagged as a possible upset loser to both Indiana and Toledo. So, Purdue is seen by TSN as a team that could possibly lose to Indiana and Toledo, but also could beat the Irish. Where's the love?

5. Newcomers. Page 11 lists several "Newcomers You can't Miss." It's not clear what that means. Does it mean these newcomers will have the most impact? Get the most publicity? That these are the guys you will most want to keep an eye on? Who knows. But, leading the pack is Jimmy Clausen. Sporting News doesn't whiff on this great opportunity to take a cheap shot. Says TSN:

The most-hyped high school recruit since Brock Berlin, and we all know how that turned out. Oddly, both are from small lower-classification private schools.
What did Clausen ever do to these guys? Jimmy has yet to take a snap, and all of a sudden he's the next Brock Berlin? And do we all know how that turned out? I looked it up, and while it wasn't easy, Brock ended up with decent numbers at the University-that-shall-not-be-named, while his pro career has fizzled.

6. Top Coordinator Hires. On page 12 TSN grades out the head coaching hires, and also includes a list of the Top 5 coordinator hires. Corwin Brown failed to make the cut. Now, I have no idea, really, how Corwin Brown is going to do as a defensive coordinator. Maybe his defenses will have us crying in our beer for the return of Rick Minter. But I doubt it. What do we know? We know that coaching is teaching, and that teaching is communicating. We know that Coach Brown was able to be an effective NFL assistant coach, which means he was able to effectively communicate defensive concepts to the New York Jets' defensive backs. We also know that he has been exceptional as a recruiter since he joined Charlie Weis' staff. It has been remarkable how many of the kids Notre Dame has landed so far have commented on how impressed they were by Coach Brown, how much they enjoyed talking to him, how at ease he made them feel, and how he made them want to come play for him. That's all communication. It's motivation. And I think it's going to make him a pretty good D-coordinator. I have Corwin in my Top 5.

7. Ranking the BCS Coaches. Page 13 includes a list of the BCS coaches, from top to bottom, 1 through 66. Pete Carroll of USC is #1, Gene Chizik of Iowa State is #66. Notre Dame's Charlie Weis is #42. Not even close to being in the top half of BCS coaches. Some of the great coaches ranked by TSN ahead of Coach Weis? Joe Paterno (#18), Houston Nutt (#20), Mike Riley (#25), Chan Gailey (#30), Joe Tiller (#32), Brian Kelly (#36), and Rich Brooks (#40). All Charlie Weis has done in two years at Notre Dame is win 19 games with talent so depleted that other "better" coaches were afraid to take the Notre Dame job. He has lost six games over two years to the following opponents: USC (twice), Michigan, Ohio State, LSU and Michigan State. With the very notable exception of the loss to the Spartans, these losses were to teams considered among the most elite in the nation at the time. Is Notre Dame a Top 3 or a Top 5 team yet? No. But Coach Weis' teams have beaten just about everyone but those Top-5 caliber teams since his arrival.

8. Hot Air. But the Sporting News crew isn't done with Coach Weis yet. Also on page 13 is a short list of the five most overrated coaches. Guess who is #5? That's right, Charlie Weis! It's not clear if TSN thinks Coach Weis is overrated on their own list (at #42) or if they think he's properly slotted at #42 and that everyone else thinks too highly of him. In any case, they were able to irrationally slam Coach Weis twice on the same page, which shows good focus on their part.

9. The Top 25. On page 18 TSN begins discussion of their Top 25 teams for the upcoming season. Surprise! Notre Dame didn't make it. That didn't surprise you? Then you're paying attention. Teams that TSN ranked well above Notre Dame? BYU made it (#25). Southern Miss made it (#24). TCU made it (#20). South Florida and Boise State made it (#21 & #22). Thank goodness we don't have to play any of those guys. Instead, we get to play real Top 25 teams: USC (#1), Michigan (#3), UCLA (#10), and Penn State (#15).

10. The Top 39. Notre Dame is ranked by Sporting News at #39. That's behind all of the teams listed above, as well as the following programs: Missouri (#26), Boston College (#28), Alabama (#31), South Carolina (#36) and our opening day opponent Georgia Tech (#37). We barely edged out Purdue (#40). Does anyone here have bulletin board I can borrow?

11. Zach Frazer. On page 174 (right after the Sun Belt Conference) is the Sporting news preview of Notre Dame. There are at least a couple of glaring clues that tell us the author of this preview has no idea what the hell he is writing about. My personal favorites concern recently announced Irish transfer Zach Frazer. About Frazer as possible starting QB:
Strong-armed Zach Frazer played as well as anyone in the spring.
And, from the "A Pro Scout says ..." item:
I don't know about Jimmy Clausen, but I've seen Zach Frazer, and he would play for a lot of schools. Big kid, stands tall in the pocket, strong arm. Don't be surprised if he wins that job.
How in the world can anyone not on the Notre Dame team or coaching staff say that Zach played as well as anyone in the Spring? All the practices were closed, and Zach went 0 for 4 with an INT in the Blue-Gold game. What can this possibly be based on? And of course, we'd all be surprised if Zach were to win the job now, since he is about to become a U Conn Husky.

12. Schedule tidbits from the preview. Sporting news has Michigan as our toughest game, with USC as our best chance to pull an upset. Wow. According to the Sporting News, we have a better chance of upsetting USC than we do of upsetting Michigan, UCLA, Penn State, Boston College, or Georgia Tech. (Remember that TSN ranks all of these teams ahead of us, so beating any of them would be an upset). Call me crazy, but I'd probably count USC as our toughest game, with best chance of an upset against G-Tech, Penn State, B.C., or UCLA.

What's the bottom line? The editors at Sporting News hate the Irish, hate Coach Weis, and don't even know what the hell they're writing about. Which means I totally blew $6.99.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

The Scout.com Top 100 Recruits Like the Irish


The last thing a 43 year-old man with a wife, a mortgage, and two kids needs or wants is to become a recruiting dork. I don't want to become that guy who watches grainy YouTube game video of high school juniors, pretending that he can form an intelligent opinion of whether a particular junior would be a good fit for the Notre Dame football team two years down the road. That way lies madness. I feel about as qualified to editorialize on the success of Charlie Weis' recruiting efforts as I did to write preview articles on Spring practice.

Nevertheless, I do keep a contstant watch out for any news which might be a signal of how well things are going out there on the recruiting trail. One such indicator which recently came to my attention was Scout.com's Top 100 Recruits list for the Fall class of 2008. I commend it to your review, and I'm sure others will have more in-depth analysis for the truly sick. But some quick numbers crunching at the macro level reveals a few tidbits worth mentioning.

  • Signing day for high school students who probably finished their junior year of high school last week is still eight months and a full senior season of football away, yet Charlie Weis & Co. have already secured public verbal commitments from five players in Scout's Top 100.
  • Those five players are ranked at #40, #50, #65, #74, and #88 on the Top 100 and include one 5-star and four 4-star players (according to Scout.com).
  • In addition to the five players already verbally committed to the Irish, seventeen other players in the Top 100 list Notre Dame among their "Schools of Interest."
  • Thus, fully 22% of the players in the Scout.com Top 100 are either committed to Notre Dame or have an interest in Notre Dame.
  • The seventeen players showing interest are ranked 5, 8, 13, 19, 24, 27, 28, 30, 33, 34, 39, 42, 55, 62, 68, 70, and 75. Eleven of these players are ranked at 5-stars, while the remaining six are 4-star players.
  • All eleven of the 5-star players showing interest are ranked higher than the highest ranked player already committed to Notre Dame (TE Kyle Rudolph at #40).
What does it all mean? It means I need to get a life. At the very least it also means that Coach Weis has the attention of the best recruits in the nation. We certainly won't get all or even most of the recruits showing interest. In some cases I'm sure the interest isn't mutual. In other cases, I am sure the coaching staff is pursuing players who aren't interested in Notre Dame, YET. No doubt the list is very fluid. No doubt some kids with "interest" really just want to visit the campus and see a great football game in the premiere venue in all of sport, before committing to play for a school that will allow them to pursue their dream of a career in kinesiology.

Regardless of how it all turns out, signposts like the Top 100 allow me to sleep a little better at night, knowing that our current coaching staff is working extremely hard to bring to Notre Dame the talent we need to return to the upper echelon of college football programs. Instead of worrying about recruiting, now I can worry about whether or not recruiting success will actually translate to wins on Saturday.