Thoughts on Coach Kelly

My Dad reminded me a few weeks ago that I hadn't yet chimed in with my opinion on Brian Kelly being hired as the new head football coach at Notre Dame. He was right, as he often is, but at the time I didn't really have anything intelligent to add to the conversation beyond "Yippee!" I wasn't surprised by the hire, as loyal OC Domer readers will recall that I confidently posted here on November 18th that his hiring was "all but a done deal." And of course I am extremely pleased that Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick targeted and landed a coach who was arguably the most qualified candidate he could have possibly lured to South Bend and a man who is easily the best prepared head football coach Notre Dame has hired since Lou Holtz.

To me, Coach Kelly perfectly fits the model that has produced National Championships for Notre Dame in the past. As I wrote during the long November of 2009 when we were all waiting for the curtain to come down on Charlie Weis' tenure at ND:

For me, the preferred model is the one that has made Notre Dame most successful in the past. Hire a coach who has been a very successful college head coach elsewhere. Find a guy who has displayed a knack for over-achieving at a "lesser" program, of doing "more" with "less." Frank Leahy was very successful at Boston College before coming to Notre Dame. Ara Parseghian won at Northwestern. Dan Devine won at Arizona State and Missouri. Lou Holtz won at William & Mary, North Carolina State, and Arkansas.

I don't think people truly appreciate how important experience and sustained success as a head coach is as a predictor of future success. People tend to think of Ara Parseghian as a young "up and comer" that we snatched away from Northwestern. But did you know that Ara was the head coach at Miami University for five years and at Northwestern for eight season before landing the Notre Dame job? That's thirteen years of incredibly important experience in the top job before coming to ND. Dan Devine had spent three years as head coach at Arizona State, thirteen years as head coach at Mizzou, and four years as head coach of the Green Bay Packers before coaching under the Golden Dome. That's twenty years as a head coach in Division I and the NFL. Lou Holtz's head coaching career before Notre Dame included three years at William & Mary, four years at N.C. State, one year with the N.Y. Jets, seven years at Arkansas and two years at Minnesota. That's seventeen years as a head coach before leading a team into Notre Dame stadium.

Contrast the above list of Championship coaches with this list: Gerry Faust (No college head coaching experience prior to ND); Bob Davie (No head coaching experience prior to ND); Ty Willingham (Seven seasons HC at Stanford); Charlie Weis (No college or Pro head coaching experience).

When looking at what has worked versus what hasn't worked historically at Notre Dame it should be painfully obvious that if you want to have a reasonable chance of football success you must hire a coach with significant experience as a head coach. Even Ty Willingham's seven years of HC experience at Stanford wasn't enough to prepare him for true success at Notre Dame. On the other hand, Brian Kelly's twenty years as a head coach at Grand Valley State, Central Michigan, and Cincinnati makes him more experienced than either Holtz or Parseghian and puts him on par with Dan Devine.

Take that twenty years of experience, give it to an Irish Catholic kid from Boston who has always dreamed of coaching at Notre Dame and who is a bundle of energy and seemingly a natural motivator and leader, and you have to expect that good things are about to happen for Notre Dame football.

So, to answer my Dad's e-mail, I'm pretty pumped about the beginning of the Brian Kelly era at Notre Dame.

Having had the time to sit back a little and watch as Coach Kelly has gone about the task of retooling the Irish football program, I do have some initial impressions that I would like to share.

Players. Coach Kelly has his own definite notions of the type of players he wants in his program. He calls them RKGs (Right Kind of Guys). He wants young men who are football players. Not necessarily the most gifted or talented guys, but guys who love the game and who will work hard to be prepared to play hard on Saturdays. He wants guys with heart and passion and work ethic and discipline. He wants guys who want to be at Notre Dame and who really, really, want to wear that gold helmet and play for the Fighting Irish. He wants guys he can trust to be selfless and committed to the team and to their teammates. Prima donnas need not apply. I think he wants Rudy, but with more size and 4.4 speed.

Of course, not every 4-star and 5-star prospect will fit the RKG mold. Many of the most talented players choose their college with one eye focused on a future NFL career. Sure, they want to win. But it's at least as much about them as an an individual pro prospect as it is about the team. It's about making highlight reel big hits rather than a sure tackle. It's about the big breakaway run rather than putting your head down and getting a first down. It's about not getting hurt rather than going all out on punt coverage.

Notre Dame is already limited in the pool of 4- and 5-star recruits we can really pursue due to above-average academic standards. That pool is clearly going to be narrowed a little bit more as Coach Kelly and his staff weed out players who are not RKG material. We may not see it this year as Coach Kelly nails down a recruiting class that was mostly selected and secured by Coach Weis' staff, but in February 2011 I think Irish fans are going to be very surprised by how the pundits rate Coach Kelly's first true class of recruits. I expect that class to be rated much lower than Charlie Weis' classes have been. Part of it will be the result of the RKG test discussed above. But a larger part will be that Coach Kelly has his own very strong opinions about the types of athletes that will perform best in his system.

I'll discuss it more below, but Coach Kelly has a very definite system and style of play that he coaches. He wants to recruit RKGs who will get the most out of his offensive and defensive system. He does not believe that Scout.com or Rivals.com are as good at evaluating prospective players as he is. If he really likes a tackle for his offense who is "only" rated a 3-star prospect, he is not going to lose sleep over it. If the 3-star guy is a better fit than available 4-star guys, he'll take the 3-star guy. I think we'll see this play out all over the depth chart, on both sides of the ball.

Now, this isn't to say that future Notre Dame recruiting classes are going to look like recent Cincinnati classes. Clearly Coach Kelly will have access to a bigger, more talented pool of RKGs than he did at Cincy. But where Charlie Weis' recruiting classes were generally Top-10 caliber and even Top-5, I fully expect Coach Kelly's classes to be in the second ten (ranked 11-20) rather than Top 10.

Not that there is anything wrong with that. One of the great laments for Irish fans in recent years (as during the Gerry Faust years) is that we keep bringing in highly touted recruiting classes, but it isn't translating into wins on Saturday. So what is happening? Are the coaches failing to develop the players to their potential? Are the players not working as hard as they should? Are the folks at Rivals.com and Scout.com who rank these players full of baloney?

I think one of Coach Weis' problems at Notre Dame was that he was prisoner to the star system. Certainly when he first arrived it was important to him to create the impression that Notre Dame was on the way back. One quick way to do that is to land some big recruits, create some buzz, and use that buzz to land more big recruits. And it worked, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Bringing in Jimmy Clausen certainly helped land other talented skill players. But were all these guys good fits for Charlie's system? Were they RKGs? Were they really as talented as their star ratings? I think Charlie paid too much heed to the star system and I think he lacked Coach Kelly's confidence in his ability to evaluate the college potential of high school football players.

So after several seasons of watching highly ranked recruiting classes under-perform on the field, I am more than willing to try another approach: Taking less-heralded RKGs and seeing them get coached up so that they over-perform on Saturday.

Coaches. Let's face it, Charlie Weis never really figured out how to evaluate and hire good coaches. Having never been a head coach, and not having any college coaching experience, the pool of guys he could draw on to join his staff based on personal relationships was small. So he had to rely on the recommendations of his NFL buddies on who would be good hires. And maybe these guys were good coaches. But they had never coached with Charlie, and they came from different systems, and in my view it never really came together as a full staff. I think the offensive staff this past season was (finally) excellent. But the Tenuta/Brown experiment on defense didn't work. The inexplicable loyalty to John Latina as O-line coach was, well, inexplicable. I don't want to dwell on it, but I file it under "lessons learned" that hiring an all-star hodge-podge of guys with no common experience is not the way to build a staff.

Coach Kelly has gone another direction. With a few exceptions his new Notre Dame staff is a group of guys that have coached with or for him before, in some cases for many years. These guys know each other, they trust each other, they know the system and trust the system. They are on the same page and pulling in the same direction from day one. (Cliche' alert!) They aren't big names or all-stars. They don't have much NFL experience. They are career college coaches who have won championships with Coach Kelly before, and who expect they will do so at Notre Dame.

The relative lack of name recognition and complete lack of Super Bowl rings will probably make recruiting just a little more challenging. But Coach Kelly isn't as worried about recruiting as he is about what happens to the players once they arrive at Notre Dame. He wants coaches who he knows can teach his system and who he knows can develop young high school players into the best college players they can be. He believes this staff of coaches will do that.

System. Through twenty years of learning and growing and evolving as a head coach, Brian Kelly knows who he is and he knows what type of football he wants to play. He has a system. It isn't an exotic or gimmicky system (although it may seem a little exotic to Notre Dame fans at first). It's a fully developed, established and de-bugged philosophy and playbook on both offense and defense. On offense they run a wide-open spread attack that features footballs flying all over the yard. On defense they run a base, balanced, aggressive 3-4.

In sharp contrast to Coach Weis' philosophy of trying to out-scheme opposing teams ("schematic advantage" anyone?), Coach Kelly's goal is to have his players learn his system inside and out and then out-play (out-execute) opponents. Rather than trying to find and exploit individual match-ups to win games, Coach Kelly is in effect telling opponents "This is who we are, this is what we do. Good luck stopping us." It reminds me of the Notre Dame teams under Lou Holtz. Under Lou everybody knew we were going to run the option or hand the ball to Jerome Bettis. Stopping it was another matter. Bill Walsh's 49er teams led by Joe Montana were similar. Opponents knew what plays the 49ers were going to run. But the plays, if executed properly, put so much pressure on a defense that they were impossible to stop.

Having a clear system has several advantages. First of all, as discussed above, it allows you to be very precise in targeting recruits that fit your program. If you are a spread offense you need nimble offensive linemen and versatile running backs who can run routes and catch the ball. Giant tackles who can drive block but who can't move laterally, or fullbacks who can't catch the ball out of the backfield are not good fits, so you don't pursue those guys. On the defensive line, you need big guys that can anchor that 3-4 defense, not pass-rushing defensive ends who can't stand up and play linebacker. Having a clear philosophy and system on both sides of the ball allows you to focus on finding RKGs that are the best fit for your program.

Second, having a clear system gives players a sense of identity and therefore a sense of confidence. They know who they are are. They know what their role is. They know what they are supposed to do. The fundamentals of the system stay the same from the time they enroll as freshman until they are getting significant playing time as juniors and seniors. Practicing the same fundamentals, the same techniques, the same playbook over a course of several seasons breeds confidence, it breeds trust in the system and in their teammates. it allows players to react on the field without having to think about it, it allows players to play faster with fewer mistakes. I'll talk more about it below, but having a familiar system that is consistent from week to week and from year to year leads to what Coach Kelly calls "unconscious competence", which means that you have become so adept that you know what to do and how to do it without even having to think about it. It becomes second nature.

Compare the above concept of an established system with a defense that changes each year from a 3-4 (with 4-3 personnel) to a 4-3, and then back to a 3-4, and that changes defensive coordinators every year. Or an offense that is experiencing a competition at quarterback among four players who are inexperienced in the base offense while trying to also install a gimmicky "wildcat" offense that will hopefully "surprise" the opening day opponent. Do you think those players are gong to be thinking a little too much on game day? Is it any wonder the O-line played in slow motion on opening day 2007 against Georgia Tech? In retrospect, to a lesser degree one has to wonder if Charlie's attempts to out "X" and "O" opponents by devising a clever new game plan every week just slowed the guys down by forcing them to think too much, rather than just executing with confidence.

Development. Listening to his press conferences and reading his interviews, it is clear that Coach Kelly believes that the way to win football games is to develop players. Not recruit players. Develop players. He believes in developing them as players on the field, and as people off the field, in the classroom, and in the community. I'll be focusing here on development as players on the field.

All the topics I discussed above tie into the concept of player development. Getting the Right Kind of Guys (RKGs) who are passionate about the game, and who are disciplined and committed and willing to work hard to become better players. He hired a coaching staff of guys he knows to be great teachers and great at helping young men reach their full potential. And he has an established system which is designed to lend itself to and reinforce the development of players.

I have heard Coach Kelly mention the concept of "unconscious competence" more than once. It's an odd phrase and one that I was not familiar with, but it seemed to be fundamental to his coaching philosophy, so I looked it up. It isn't a new concept, but it is a powerful learning model that one can easily see would lend itself perfectly to teaching football. If you look it up you'll see these concepts referred to variously as the "conscious competence ladder" or the "conscious competence model" and so forth. I found one web page that did the best job of explaining the concepts fairly succinctly, so I'm going to borrow liberally from it below, but I encourage you to go read the full article at MindTools.com if you want more information.

The conscious competence model is a conceptual way of looking at the transition from a state of blissful ignorance of a skill to mastery of that skill. It can be applied to almost any endeavor, but I'm going to look at it in the context of football.

Level 1 - Unconscious Incompetence (You Don't Know that You Don't Know)
At this level you are blissfully ignorant: You have a complete lack of knowledge and skills in the subject in question. On top of this, you are unaware of this lack of skill, and your confidence may therefore far exceed your abilities.

[COMMENT: Think about that freshman running back who dominated every game he ever played his whole life and who thinks he knows all there is to know about being a running back and that he will excel as a college back from Day 1. He has no idea how little he really knows and how much he needs to learn to play at this level]

Level 2 - Conscious Incompetence (You Know that You Don't Know)
At this level you find that there are skills you need to learn, and you may be shocked to discover that there are others who are much more competent than you. As you realize that your ability is limited, your confidence drops. You go through an uncomfortable period as you learn these new skills when others are much more competent and successful than you are.

[Comment: Think about the freshman running back who gets into Fall practice and realizes he isn't the fastest or strongest guy on the field anymore. He is having trouble reading the defense to run in the correct hole or figure out who to block. He keeps getting tackled for no gain in the scrimmages and run over by linebackers in drills.]

Level 3 - Conscious Competence (You Know that You Know)

At this level you acquire the new skills and knowledge. You put your learning into practice and you gain confidence in carrying out the tasks or jobs involved. You are aware of your new skills and work on refining them.

You are still concentrating on the performance of these activities, but as you get ever-more practice and experience, these become increasingly automatic.

[Comment: Following good teaching and coaching and repetition in the familiar system, the young running back learns how to read the defense, how to find the hole, who to block and how to block them. Now he's ready to get on the field on Saturday.]

Level 4 - Unconscious Competence (You Don't Know that You Know - It Just Seems Easy!)
At this level your new skills become habits, and you perform the task without conscious effort and with automatic ease. This is the peak of your confidence and ability.

[Comment: Now the young running back can spot the holes and pick up the blitzer without having to think about it. It's automatic and second nature. Now the player can let his natural abilities and instincts flow, and he'll be playing fast and with incredible confidence.]

It seems obvious once you read through it. And once you understand the learning model, you can see how important it is that the players are being developed within an established system. In order to play fast and with confidence, the players have to get to level four - unconscious competence. They can only get there if they get enough practice and repetitions in the fundamentals of the system to make their play reactive and automatic. Any time the coach changes the system, or introduces a new series of plays or a new defensive concept, all the players get knocked back down to level 2, conscious incompetence, and have to work their way back up to level four. With good coaching they will get to level 3, conscious competence, within a reasonable period of time. But only with a sufficient number of repetitions and practice will the team get to level 4 on the new concepts.

Under NCAA rules the coaching staff only gets so many practice hours with the team each season. They can only squeeze so many reps into that time. A choice has be made, a balance struck, between how much playbook is installed and what percentage of the time will the players be playing with unconscious competence. It is clear that Coach Kelly places a premium on running a more limited, but known system extremely well rather than installing a more diverse playbook that the players can only execute at level 3, conscious competence.

Conclusion. Having watched Coach Kelly from my perch out here in California, I have been very impressed. His enthusiasm is palpable, and from his opening press conference I had no doubt that his players will be fired up and ready to run through walls come September. Hell, I'm ready to button my chin strap and go play. I've still got four years of eligibility to burn!

But as I've examined his moves and tried to get inside his head, he is even more impressive. He is completely ready for this challenge. Not only does he know football. It's clear from the discussion of "unconscious competence" above that he has been studying leadership and psychology and teaching for the past twenty years and he is fully equipped to take the young men who choose to go to Notre Dame places even they don't realize they can go.

Welcome to Notre Dame Coach Kelly! Go Irish!

Three Envelopes

When Notre Dame Head Football Coach Charlie Weis showed up for his first day on his new job under the Golden Dome, there was a short letter waiting for him in the middle of his desk. It was from Charlie's predecessor, Ty Willingham. The letter read as follows:

Dear Coach Weis,

Congratulations on being named as Notre Dame's football coach. It is truly an honor and a privilege to represent this University and coach these outstanding young men. You have a wealth of experience that has prepared you for the challenges you will face, but I suspect that you may not understand the truly daunting nature of the task before you.

As Notre Dame football coach you will be famous. Most of the time you will be celebrated and praised. But there will also be dark days when your future at Notre Dame is in serious doubt. To help you through those inevitable times of trouble, I have prepared for you three envelopes. They are in the bottom drawer of this desk. When you and your program are under intense criticism and you need a little help righting the ship, you should open one of the envelopes.

Congratulations once again on your new position, and the best of luck to you and the Fighting Irish.

Yours in Notre Dame,

Ty Willingham

Coach Weis though it was awfully nice of Coach Willingham to leave him such a nice note, but he wasn't entirely sure what to make of it. He opened the bottom drawer of the desk and, sure enough, there were three sealed envelopes in the drawer, each of them bearing a number, 1 through 3. Charlie shrugged, dropped the note from Ty into the drawer with the envelopes, closed the drawer, and promptly went about salvaging the Notre Dame football program.

In 2005 and 2006, led by quarterback Brady Quinn, the Fighting Irish went 19-4 in regular season games, and appeared in two BCS Bowl games (losing both). By and large the Notre Dame alumni and fans were very happy with Coach Weis and the direction of the football program. Athletic Director Kevin White was looking pretty smart for having lured Coach Weis back to Notre Dame and locking him into a long term contract.

But in the 2007 season things really went sideways for Coach Weis and the Fighting Irish. Without Brady Quinn at quarterback, and having to play a lot of very young, inexperienced players, Notre Dame won only three games, getting blown out in several contests and losing to Navy for the first time since 1963. The alumni and fans were upset. Kevin White was taking heat for having prematurely granted a long contract extension to Charlie. Shortly after the season ended, Coach Weis was preparing for his annual program review meeting with the Athletic Director when he remembered the note from Coach Willingham and the three envelopes.

Mindful of the fact that a three-win campaign was the worst Notre Dame season since Hugh Devore's 1963 squad, Charlie Reached for Envelope #1, and he opened it. Inside was an index card that said only: "Blame the previous head coach."

Charlie went to his meeting with Kevin White, and he explained in great detail how Coach Willingham's failures in recruiting had left Notre Dame with huge holes in the roster, and that it was going to take some time to overcome such a talent deficiency. The Athletic Director saw Charlie's point, and wished him luck in 2008.

The 2008 Fighting Irish squad was much better than the 2007 team. An early whooping of the Michigan Wolverines seemed to bode well for Irish fortunes. But as the season played out the team suffered several embarrassing come-from-ahead losses culminating in a humiliating defeat at the hands of an awful Syracuse squad in Notre Dame Stadium followed by yet another drubbing at the hands of the hated USC Trojans. Notre Dame was Bowl eligible, but just barely. Committed recruits were rumored to be nervous about the future of Coach Weis and the direction of the program, whispers about Charlie's suitability to be a head coach were now replaced by loud calls for his head. As Coach Weis was preparing his team to play their Bowl Game in Hawaii, he too was worried about the recruiting class and his own future. Notre Dame had a new Athletic Director, Jack Swarbrick, and it wasn't at all clear that Swarbrick wanted to hitch his legacy as A.D. to Charlie's wagon.

Charlie opened the bottom drawer of his desk and took out Envelope #2. The card inside said simply: "Blame your staff."

Coach Weis met with the new A.D. and explained that he was going to fix the team's problems by shuffling his coaching staff. He was going to reclaim play-calling duties from his departing offensive coordinator. He elevated Jon Tenuta to defensive coordinator over Corwin Brown. He brought in new coaches for the offensive line, the defensive line, and the running backs. Jack Swarbrick wasn't completely convinced, but he gave Charlie a public vote of confidence that kept the recruits on board through signing day. The big win in the Hawaii Bowl, breaking the embarrassing bowl losing streak, had everyone feeling better about Notre Dame football.

In 2009 everyone was expecting Notre Dame to have a BIG year. Coach Weis' recruits were now all grown up, and the schedule looked very favorable. The team looked improved, but not dominant. Last second losses to Michigan and USC, combined with last minute wins over Michigan State, Washington, Purdue, and Boston College left Irish fans feeling very uncomfortable. After eight games, at 6-2, the team was within a whisker of being 8-0. But they were also arguably within a whisker of being 2-6. The quarterback and the offense was having a Heisman-caliber year. But the defense appeared all too often to be playing the season on roller skates. Nobody was sure if the team was really getting better, or if the close wins were just a mirage.

Then came the annual game versus Navy, this year played in Notre Dame Stadium. Despite a 450-yard passing day from quarterback Jimmy Clausen in the midst of a furious comeback attempt, Notre Dame lost to Navy 23-21 due to turnovers, poor Red Zone play-calling, and atrocious defense against the triple option. The home crowd in Rock's House was disgusted. Boos rained down from the student section in the northwest corner of the stadium. Parseghian, Devine, Faust, Holtz, Davie, Willingham. None of them had ever lost a single game to Navy. Yet Charlie Weis had managed to lose two home games in a row to the Midshipmen. The Charlie Weis bandwagon had suddenly become a very lonely place. Speculation had begun to swirl about who the next Notre Dame coach would be.

Charlie Weis remained defiant in his post-game press conference. But when he returned to his office, he opened the bottom drawer of his desk, and took out Envelope #3. He hesitated to open it for a moment, but finally tore it open. The card inside fell onto his desk. It said simply: "Prepare three envelopes ..."

Jake and the Dawgs Visit Rock's House (Plus the IBG)

This post will serve as your combination platter U-Dub preview and Irish Blogger Gathering entry for the week. First my pre-game thoughts as yet another "Greatest Dual Threat Quarterback Ever" leads the Washington Huskies into Notre Dame Stadium.


This game is all about Notre Dame. The Irish smoked a Jake Locker-less Huskies squad in Seattle last year, 33-7. And the game was not nearly as close as the score indicated. Last year's game at Washington was the only Notre Dame game I ever remember watching where I felt like the opponent had actually given up. It was a great performance by a prepared Irish squad, and an embarrassing display of hopelessness by U-Dub. Seeing the lack of Husky heart in that game, it was no wonder they went 0-12 on the season.

What a difference a coach and a quarterback can make.

Other than changing head coaches and getting their star QB back from injury, the 2009 Huskies are largely the same group of players that UW fielded in 2008. Yet this year the Huskies came within a whisker of beating SEC powerhouse Louisiana State (31-23), and they did beat the visiting USC Trojans two weeks ago (16-13). Washington is 2-2 on the year, the two losses being to LSU and last week to Stanford (34-14) in their first road game of the season.

Looking at the Huskies' season so far, they seem to have a split personality. The Dawgs really enjoy home cooking, and really feed off the home crowd at Husky Stadium, reputedly one the loudest stadia in the nation when the crowd gets into it. The close game against LSU and the win against USC were both home games.

Last week down on the Farm, in a stadium that was filled to the rafters with 36,390 wine-sipping Cardinal fans (only 36 thousand fans for a PAC-10 game? Really Stanford?) the Huskies were basically dominated, 34-14. Playing without their home crowd, but hardly in a hostile environment, the Huskies allowed 424 total yards --- 321 of those yards on the ground (an average of 6.4 yards per rush).

The "amazing" Jake Locker had 20 net yards rushing on 7 carries and went 16 of 31 (52%) for 191 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.

I don't doubt that part of the problem for U-Dub last week was them looking ahead to this week's game against the Irish. But that's a pretty weak performance, even granted that Stanford is an improved team under Coach Harbaugh.

Tomorrow, the Huskies are going to face not just 36 thousand apathetic Cardinal fans, but 80 thousand die-hard Notre Dame fans. Playing in Notre Dame Stadium as the second leg of back-to-back road games will be a challenge for Washington. As I wrote at the top, this game is all about the Irish.

It's all about whether they are prepared and focused and hungry. In my view, if the Irish had a good week of practice, and if they come into the stadium tomorrow ready to take care of business, and if they play with the requisite energy and heart, there is no way they lose this game. As noted before, both teams in this game are playing essentially the same guys that played in last year's game in Seattle, and that was a blow-out home loss for Washington.

On defense, Coaches Tenuta and Brown have to contend with the vaunted dual-threat quarterback, Jake Locker. Given all his hype, I might be worried. Except that Locker is the third "dual threat" QB our defense has faced this season. Our coaches and players have therefore had plenty of opportunity to fine-tune our strategies for defending this type of attack. The Notre Dame defense totally frustrated Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick, and were in turn frustrated by Michigan's Tate Forcier. So they've had a chance to see what works and what doesn't work. What doesn't work is really poor tackling inside Michigan Stadium. In addition to our own experience, the defense gets the added assistance of watching film of Stanford neutralizing Locker and the Husky offense. If we improve our tackling (which has been emphasized in practice this week), I have confidence that the Irish defense will fare well against the Huskies' offense.

On offense, the Irish coaches face a real quandary. One can't help but notice the rushing numbers Stanford put on U-Dub. 321 yards on 50 carries? Really? It will be very tempting for Coach Weis to hand the game plan over to run game coordinator (and O-line coach) Frank Verducci, and the maybe learn how to play golf. Notre Dame's offensive linemen outweigh Washington's defensive linemen by an average of 30 pounds per man (315 vs. 285). One easy route to success would be to send Irish running backs at the Washington defense in waves. Pound them with Robert Hughes, and Jonas Gray, and Theo Riddick, and Armando Allen. Again, and again, and again.

No doubt we'll see some of this in the game plan.

The quandary comes from the fact that Notre Dame plays USC in two weeks (after a bye week next week), and USC's defense is not going to be impressed with a one-dimensional offense featuring a group of running backs that is generally slower than just about every player on the USC defense. To beat USC, Notre Dame will need a balanced attack, including a potent aerial attack that stretches the field vertically. Prior to the Purdue game I wrote:

I hope that Coach Weis keeps the offense fundamentally the same as the first few weeks, stretching the field vertically with Tate and (probably) Evans. The difference will be that, in the absence of Floyd, Jimmy Clausen won't be able to just throw the ball up in the air and expect #3 to come down with it. He'll have to actually wait for a receiver to get open, and thus more throws will come over the middle of the field to Rudolph, Kamara, and Parris once Tate and Evans have lured the coverage deeper.

It would be a mistake to decide that this is Purdue, we should be able to handle them, so let's just work on our run game. That could well work for one game, but Coach Weis needs to let Clausen and the receivers run the entire offense so that they are ready to execute the full passing attack against Washington and USC without Floyd to lean on.

(Emphasis added).

While the win over Purdue was a gutsy one, my fears about the direction of the offense in the absence of Michael Floyd were largely realized. With the exception of the final scoring drive, the win over Purdue was the result of a very conservative, ground-based attack, with short horizontal throws mixed in. Kudos to the offensive line and the running backs for taking charge of the game and keying the win. But our "vertical" passing game all but disappeared last week.

The longest play from scrimmage against Purdue was Theo Riddick's 24-yard rush in the 2nd quarter. The two longest pass completions in the game were a 22-yard completion to TE Kyle Rudolph on the final scoring drive and a 23-yard completion to RB Gary Gray in the 1st quarter. Both of those plays consisted of very short throws (caught near the line of scrimmage) and long runs-after-catch. The longest completed down field throw was a 17-yarder to Golden Tate on that final scoring drive.

In order to get the ball into the hands of our one remaining play maker, Coach Weis had to resort to the wildcat package and get the ball to Golden Tate in the backfield. That might be enough to get the job done against Washington too, but it won't be enough against USC.

It's axiomatic that you take the games one at a time and you don't look ahead. But part of the game plan this week has to be finding a wide receiver who can complement Golden Tate and threaten the defense down the field if Tate is double covered (which he will be).

Now, on to the Irish Blogger Gathering for this week, hosted by the founder of the IBG, Subway Domer. Subway has moved his blog into new digs, so head over there to check him out and to read all this week's IBG contributions once you're done here.

1. Describe your worst nightmare coming true on Saturday. Can that nightmare become a reality?

My worst nightmare is that Jake Locker plays like Tate Forcier, the Big Televen officials that called the Michigan game sneak into Notre Dame Stadium, and the defense once again forgets how to tackle. Yeah, it could happen. Locker is a talented QB with a lot of moxie. He will find a way to beat you if you give him half a chance. But I don't think it will happen. The defense is getting better each week, and I can't imagine the Indiana State Police letting those officials cross the state line.

2. Can we all agree that Jake Locker will be the best quarterback that we have/will face all season?

No. In the pre-season I picked USC's Matt Barkley as the top QB we will face. His shoulder injury has hampered his development, so I no longer think it will be Barkley. But that Forcier kid sure got my attention. Sparty's Kirk Cousins put 302 yards on us and even Purdue's Joey Elliott pu 289 yards and 3 TDs on the board. I don't think Locker will be as productive as any of those QBs against Notre Dame. So maybe Jake is 4th best QB we'll see.

3. Replace two starters on both sides of the football for the Washington game. Who are they, who are they replacing, and why?

On offense we have to get Duval Kamara out of there. He is dropping passes and getting called for inexcusable penalties. He is playing in Michael Floyd's stead, and nobody is going to replace Floyd, but Duval does not threaten defenses down the field at all. He's a decent possession receiver at his best, but not a speed guy. He has to be replaced by a speedster, and the most likely candidate is Shaquelle Evans. Put him in the same role Golden Tate played as a freshman - send him deep and chuck the ball to him a few times. Force the defense to account for him so Golden has a chance to get open too.

Give Robert Hughes the start over Armando Allen. He earned it with his play last week, and the U-Dub defense can be pounded into submission with a strong run game. Let Hughes pound the defense for a while and wear them down, then bring in Armando as the change-of-pace speed guy to break some big plays.

On defense Toryan Smith needs to make way for the youth movement. Toryan goes to the bench, Brian Smith slides over to the middle, and Manti Te'o starts at the Will linebacker spot. Toryan just hasn't been making plays. He lacks the speed and lateral movement to get to the QB on blitzes or to chase down any play that isn't run right at him.

Finally, I'd give Raeshon McNeil the start at cornerback over Darrin Walls. I haven't gone back and looked at the tape, but it just seems that I have seen #2 miss on too many plays this season.

4. Ty Willingham enters the stadium in the second quarter. What happens?

At the urging of the ushers, the crowd gets eerily silent. Coach Willingham, a look of intense concentration on his face, paces up and down the home sideline, seemingly oblivious to what's happening on the field. At last, he locates his golf ball near the southwest corner of the end zone, and hits an impressive 8-iron over the stadium rim and in the general direction of Legends. He doffs his hat in response to the polite smattering of applause from the crowd, and he leaves as mysteriously as he arrived.

5. Are you impressed with the improvement in the run game in 2009, or is it a figment of our imagination?

Impressed. I think Verducci is an improvement over Latina. Weis has given Verducci responsibility/authority for game-planning the ground attack, and these guys are all a year older and more developed. Add in a dose of more decisive running by the backs (thanks Coach Alford) and you have a better ground game.

6. Who's hotter, Wendi Nix or Erin Andrews? Why. It your hottie a defensive or offensive player?

I'm going with ... Hannah Storm. Hannah is a brunette, and a Notre Dame grad. She's hot and smart, although not as hot or as smart as my dear wife, (Hi Honey!) and I've always like her. She would certainly be on the defensive around me! (Badabing! I'll be here all week).



I'm not a big Wendy fan. And I'm not going to add to the unfair and cruel objectification of Erin Andrews after all she's been through lately.

7. Predictions please...

I predict I'm going to get some heat over my answer to question 6.

And I predict a comfortable Irish win. We control the ball on the ground, hit some big plays over the top as a change of pace, and have a bend-but-don't-break day on defense, giving up some points but keeping things under control.

Notre Dame 27, Washington 17 in a game played in a cold rain.

Coach Weis Working Hard for his Guys

First of all, congratulations to David Bruton! The OC Domer 2007 Player of the Year was drafted by the Denver Broncos on Sunday. He was the Broncos' 4th round pick, and taken number 114 overall. When I heard about Bruton going to the Broncos the first thought that jumped into my head was that maybe he could be the next Steve Atwater for them. Atwater was a hard-hitting, rangy safety that was noted for doing a great job coming up and defending against the run. Given David Bruton's penchant for being among Notre Dame's top tacklers the past few seasons, I think the Atwater comparison is apt. Steve Atwater was listed as 6' 3", 220 lbs with a 4.44 second 40-yard dash time. Bruton is listed at 6' 2" and 219, with 40 times from 4.40 to 4.46 seconds. Go Broncos!

It's disappointing that the Irish had only one player drafted in 2009, but not really surprising. This class was the recruiting class of 2005, which was the hybrid Willingham/Weis class. Weis gets the "credit" (blame) for the recruiting class, but it was Willingham and his staff who had done all the background and recruiting for this group and then handed it over to Charlie with a month left before signing day following the Super Bowl. To me, this weekend's NFL draft finally closes the book on the Ty Willingham era at Notre Dame.

The South Bend Tribune noted today:

Fifth-year seniors Lambert, Brown and Crum represent the final three pieces of the last full recruiting class of the Tyrone Willingham Era (2004), a class that now holds the distinction of not having one player selected in an NFL Draft.

That includes the 10 players from that class who transferred and finished their football careers at other schools, and running back Darius Walker, who jumped into the draft pool after his junior season.

Willingham's first, and as it turns out only, senior class at Washington also went draftless this weekend.

The 2009 Fighting Irish will be stocked with Charlie Weis recruits from top to bottom, from seniors down to freshman. Any personnel or roster deficiencies fall at the feet of CW. To coin a phrase, "No Excuses."

Although we had only one player drafted over the weekend, that does NOT mean that more Notre Dame men won't get a chance to play football on Sundays. Early this morning my cell phone started buzzing with Twitter messages from Coach Weis. Here they are, in order:

• Good morning. I returned home late Saturday night from the ND Club of El Paso Texas. I spent Sunday watching Day 2 of the NFL Draft.
• I was happy for David Bruton winding up with Denver & my buddy, Josh McDaniels. Denver loves him as a safety, but even more on special teams
• After the draft, I worked on placing all our undrafted players. It looks like Mo Crum will go to Tampa, Grimes to Denver…
• Lambert to the 49ers, Kuntz to Indy, Justin Brown to Washington, and both Schwapp & Turkovich to the Cowboys.

I was very glad to read (1) that Charlie thought he had a chance to get seven more players signed as free agents and into NFL camps, and (2) that Coach is working hard for his guys. Clearly Charlie's Twitter messages are intended, at least in part, to get the attention of potential recruits who want to know that CW will do everything he can to get them their shot at the NFL if they prove themselves NFL-caliber.

There have been more developments since my break-of-dawn messages from CW. The SBT is now reporting that five Irish free agents agreed to terms Sunday night: Grimes (Denver), Kuntz (Indianapolis), Lambert (San Francisco), Schwapp (Dallas) and Turkovich (Dallas), and that Brown and Crum are expected to finalize agreements soon.

Although the odds of an undrafted free-agent making a roster are generally long, Notre Dame players have a way of sticking around in the NFL. Once these kids get into camp, the coaches see players that are of above-average intelligence, have been well-coached, have played big time football for four years, and who are high character guys. It's hard to let players like that go.

Good luck to all the NFL Irish as they chase their dreams.

Ty Willingham Resigns, Effective End of Season

According to this news report out of Seattle, Washington Head Football Coach Ty Willingham will be stepping down at the end of the season. Full text of the report:

SEATTLE, Wash. - University of Washington football coach, Tyrone Willingham, says he will step down at the end of season. The Huskies are winless in seven games this year. They have an 11-32 record under Willingham.

Pressure has been growing on the university to fire Willingham. Athletic Director Scott Woodward had said he didn't foresee making a change in the middle of the season.

Willingham decided to resign after Saturday's 33-7 loss to Notre Dame. This Saturday the Huskies are playing at No. 7 Southern Cal. The Trojans are 6-1.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled goofing off ...

Wow, Washington is Awful

Well, I'm eager to take the credit when I call one right, and today I have to admit that I pretty much whiffed with my worries about how the game against the Huskies might go. In my (relatively clever) Washington pre-game post was worried that those predicting a blow-out needed to factor the Huskies' #1 toughest schedule in the country into their calculations. I concluded:

All I'm saying is - don't be surprised when the Dawgs don't roll over for us and instead put up a fight. They are playing at home, with their backs against the wall and they are used to playing (albeit losing to) quality teams. But it looks like the Irish will have good weather, a vulnerable opposing secondary, and a very fast artificial surface for Golden Tate and Michael Floyd to play on. I expect the Irish to win fairly comfortably. But they haven't really shown the killer instinct yet when it comes to putting teams away, so I won't be surprised if it's close enough to preserve some of Willingham's dignity.

Well, the Dawgs pretty much did roll over for the Irish, and they didn't put up a fight. They did not play like a team with their backs against the wall. In fact, they played like a team standing against a wall wearing a blindfold and smoking one last cigarette. The Irish did show some hint of a killer instinct, even though Coach Weis was merciful and took his foot off the gas midway through the second half. Despite Irish efforts to respect their opponent, Ty Willingham did not preserve much of his dignity.

More about Willingham and Washington is a moment, but first the Irish. Much like Pete at BGS who was "Happy to be Miserable" after the North Carolina loss, I am happy that I was pretty thoroughly bored by the game last night. The Irish got their first road win of the season and their biggest margin of victory since the Army game in 2006 (ND 41, Army 9), and it just wasn't very exciting. It was clear very early in the game that Notre Dame was a lot better than UW, and that the Irish would have their way with the Dawgs. After a couple of electric plays very early in the game by Michael Floyd and Golden Tate (and big Sam Young), the Irish offense was pretty much on cruise control. Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen did not look particularly good. His accuracy was poor all night, but his talented receivers and/or Washington's awful defense bailed him out of bad throws often enough that his stat line ended up looking okay (14 of 26 for 210 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT). The Irish running game was dominant. I'm going to type that again because it was so much fun the first time. The Irish running game was dominant. Notre Dame ran for 252 net yards and 5.1 yards per carry. James Aldridge had 84 yards on 13 strong carries (6.5 ypc) and scored 2 TDs. Highly touted freshman running back Jonas Gray checked into the backfield and looked very good averaging 6.8 yards per carry on 9 rushes. Thoroughly boring, yet thoroughly enjoyable.

Notre Dame's defense absolutely smothered the Huskies. UW managed only 26 net rushing yards for the game (1.1 ypc), 98 net passing yards, for a total of just 124 yards of offense on just 9 first downs. But 69 yards and 5 first downs came in the final Huskies' drive of the game, which began with 6:13 remaining. On that drive, Notre Dame was playing defense with a mix of second and third string players and it was clear that Coach Weis was more interested in rewarding those guys with some playing time than he was in preserving a shut-out. Prior to the point of emptying the bench, the Irish "D" had allowed a total of 55 yards and 4 first downs, and had not allowed the Washington offense beyond it's own 44 yard line. Total domination. One high point of the evening was the fact that Notre Dame had excellent pressure on Washington's QB the whole game and sacked him 4 times. Overall, the defense seemed to be showing a little more of the Tenuta influence against UW.

I have just a couple of things to say about Coach Willingham, and then hopefully never again. Hopefully.

Last night we saw a Ty Willingham team with a full roster of Ty Willingham players competing against a Charlie Weis team with a full roster of Charlie Weis players. And it was not pretty. The talent of the Notre Dame team was clearly an order of magnitude better that the Huskies. There were numerous times last night when a Notre Dame ball carrier simply ran over UW defenders. Ran over them. We had back-ups and and former walk-ons delivering knock-out blows to Washington starters. If it wasn't obvious to the casual observer before last night, it has to be obvious today. Ty Willingham, despite being a good man and a good coach from Sunday through Friday (I am completely serious), was not getting the job done as the head football coach at Notre Dame because he was failing as a recruiter. He was not bringing in the talent that Notre Dame was used to getting, that ND needed to get, to play at the level they aspire to. It was almost sad to listen to Bob Davie last night when he talked about Ty's first recruiting class at Washington. According to Boob, Ty decided to quickly infuse the roster with talent by focusing on juinior college transfers in his first class, an effort which utterly failed and which left Washington with a yawning chasm of talent in this year's senior class. It all sounded so familiar. If you want to be a Division I-A head football coach you can't whiff on recruiting every second or third year. There are no mulligans in recruiting.

As a result of his fatal flaw, Washington is talent-deficient and is playing more freshman than almost anyone in the country. And getting embarrassed week after week. The fans have given up on TW, and last night it looked to me like his players have given up on him as well. It's likely that Ty will be let go at the end of the season, if not sooner, and that may be the last we see of him on the national stage. I don't know who is going to hire him after he has taken two once-proud football programs to their knees. He's clearly too stoic and cryptic for television, so he can't join Boob Davie in the broadcast booth. He has no experience as an offensive or defensive coordinator. But he has a big pile of money that Notre Dame paid him for NOT coaching the team after leaving South Bend. Keep an eye out for him next time you hit the links.

Next up: Pittsburgh. At our place.

Washington. It's All About The "W"

The Fighting Irish play the University of Washington Huskies tomorrow night in Seattle, at 5:00 Pacific time on ESPN2 (more on that in a minute). Here are my quick hits on the Washington game, and this week it's all about the "W".

• W is for Washington, who is 0-6.

• W is for Willingham, coach of 0-6 Washington, who was fired from his job at Notre Dame and who is now dead man Walking at the U of W.

• W is for Weis, who succeeded Willingham at ND, and who is succeeding where Willingham couldn't.

• W is for the Whiner, Coach Boob Davie who failed at ND before Willingham and who will be calling the TV broadcast for ESPN2. I'm sure the execs at ESPN think that is just hilarious!

• W is for Winning, which Notre Dame is doing again this year.

• W is for Winless, like Washington and Willingham.

• W is for Wagering. The wagering on this game has moved the line in Washington's favor from +11 to +10.

• W is for Wise Guys, who like Washington to beat the spread.

• W is for Weather, which should be clear and cool (low 50's), with only a little Wind (8-9 mph).

• W is for Walk-on kicker who has gone from interhall ball to back-up for Walker in just a week!

• W is for "Who have they played?"
  

It's true that Washington is a hapless 0-6, while the Irish are a majestic 4-2. This has prompted many Notre Dame fans to predict a road blowout win by ND. And maybe we'll see it. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Notre Dame has played two road games this season, both of them a lot closer to home than Seattle, and lost both of them. You have to walk before you can run, and I think the Irish need to win a game on the road before we start calling for blowout wins on the road.

And while the Huskies have looked pathetic, one must take into account who they have played. According to Jeff Sagarin, Washington's schedule so far this year is ranked as the #1 toughest schedule in the country. Notre Dame's schedule is ranked 45th. Washington's six opponents have an average Sagarin ranking this week of 29th in the nation. Notre Dame's six games were against teams with an average Sagarin rank this week of 64th. The four teams the Irish have beaten rank, on average around #85. The two teams we lost to have an average rank of 23rd in the country, which is just slightly better than the average ranking of Stanford's whole schedule. That's right, the teams that have beaten Notre Dame rank only slightly better, on average, than the teams that have beaten Washington.

The best team Notre Dame has beaten was Stanford, ranked 51st. We beat them by 7 points. It just so happens that Stanford is the worst team that Washington played this year (by a significant margin), and they lost by just 7 points. Washington's players are not going to be awed by Notre Dame's talent. Notre Dame sits at #44 in the Sagarin rankings this week (one spot ahead of Cincinnati!). Five of Washington's six opponents are currently ranked higher than that (at 4, 18, 32, 33, and 35). Only Stanford was ranked below the Irish. So they are not going to be intimidated by us. I also expect Washington to play with a lot of fire and emotion. They have their backs against the wall, and they know that their coach is under serious fire. As disappointing as Willingham has been at UW, I have no doubt that their locker room is full of players who love their coach and who feel like they have to defend his honor against all the haters.

All I'm saying is - don't be surprised when the Dawgs don't roll over for us and instead put up a fight. They are playing at home, with their backs against the wall and they are used to playing (albeit losing to) quality teams. But it looks like the Irish will have good weather, a vulnerable opposing secondary, and a very fast artificial surface for Golden Tate and Michael Floyd to play on. I expect the Irish to win fairly comfortably. But they haven't really shown the killer instinct yet when it comes to putting teams away, so I won't be surprised if it's close enough to preserve some of Willingham's dignity.

OC Domer 2008 Notre Dame Football Pre-Season Spectacular

The time for annual “pre-season” blog posts has just about run out, so I present the “OC Domer 2008 Notre Dame Football Pre-Season Spectacular.” Of course, “spectacular” is a very subjective term. Very, very subjective. The plan is to bring you three pre-season posts in one because I’ve just run out of time to do each of them separately. The three posts are:

1. A quick review of my earlier post on the Top 10 Irish Lessons Learned from the 2007 football season to see if there is any evidence that Coach Weis and the 2008 Fighting Irish squad have taken those lessons to heart heading into this season.

2. A quick rundown of my general overall expectations for the Irish in 2008.

3. A quick look at each Notre Dame opponent and how I think the Irish will fare against them this season.

Lessons Learned

So let’s jump in. The intent of my Top 10 Irish Lessons Learned post after last season was to lay out a blueprint for how the Irish could be a significantly improved team in 2008. My thinking was that if the Irish were truly able to take those lessons to heart heading into this season, they could reasonably expect to be a much improved team. So counting down from 10 to 1, here is my very quick analysis of whether Charlie Weis and the team have actually learned the lessons taught by the historically bad 2007 season. Of course, this analysis is based on the scant evidence available to the average fan from press conferences, interviews, Spring practice, the Blue-Gold game, and Fall camp. For many of the lessons, we won’t know for sure if they’ve been learned until kick-off.

10. “Special Teams are too important to be left to a committee.” All signs point to a much improved coaching approach to special teams this year. Special Teams are now the sole responsibility of Coach Brian Polian, and his assistant special teams coordinator is Charlie Weis. No more committee. Add to this development an off-season visit to special teams guru Frank Beamer of Virginia Tech, and one has to expect improved special teams play in 2008, which will hopefully help Notre Dame close the gap in “hidden yardage” that they were giving away last year on exchanges of kicks and punts.

9. “Talent Needs to Play.” Looking at the latest two-deep and seeing all the underclassman who have moved ahead of their elders, it’s clear that talent is going to play this season. In looking at the depth chart I don’t see anyplace where a veteran is playing ahead of a youngster just because they’ve been around longer (a la Travis Thomas).

8 & 7. “The football field is not giant craps table” & “Coach the Team You Have, Not the Team You Wish You Had.” These two lessons are closely intertwined, so we’ll take them together. In the UCLA game last year, Coach Weis finally relented to the percentages and consistently punted the ball away to play the field position game rather than forcing the action with risky gambles on 4^th down. Coincidentally, that was the first Irish win of 2007. In the USC game, CW finally went against his normal preference and decided to kick the ball off to USC and play defense rather than go on offense first. These were significant signals that Coach Weis now understands that there is a significant gap between theory and reality; that one must account for the gap between design and execution. Running the ball on 4^th and 2 at midfield may be the right percentage play sometimes, but it isn’t the right percentage play when your team can’t get two yards and their confidence is fragile. Electing to receive the ball to start the game sends a great message if your offense can back it up with a good drive. But if you are more likely to go 3-and-out you are setting your squad up for failure. The screen pass is a nice call if your linemen can get outside and actually make a block. If they can’t, a screen pass equals 2^nd and 12 after a two yard loss. The crux of these two lessons is making decisions and play calls that put your team in a position to succeed, rather than at high risk of failure. For 2008 Coach Weis has assigned play-calling responsibilities to Coach Mike Haywood. I believe in 2008 we’ll see a more conventional coaching approach that features repetition of plays that are working (if it works, keep doing it until the opposition stops it), and that emphasizes field position and relies more on an opportunistic defense than a gambling offense to set up scoring opportunities.

6. “Quarterback Derby = Bad Idea.” No more quarterback carousel this year. Jimmy C. is the QB, Evan Sharpley is #2, and that might as well be carved in granite.

5. “Men versus Boys.” Coach Weis seems to have taken to heart the differences between coaching paid professionals and coaching college underclassmen. Part of the rationale for giving up his duties as play caller was to make himself more approachable and more visible to the whole team, and to allow him to focus more on his players as people rather than as X’s and O’s in his playbook. I thought it was a great example of this new approach when he announced this week that he had changed the players’ weekly schedule for game weeks to let them sleep in on Sundays and get some rest.

4 & 1. "Scheme is overrated” & “Niche.” Coach Weis has expressed his pride in being able to out “X and O” the opposition, and he delights in the complexity of his playbook. But after last season’s disastrous start he acknowledged that the team needed to find a “niche,” or a core of plays that it could execute well and then start to build on. Turning play calling over to Coach Haywood was a first step in the transition from out-scheming opponents to out-executing opponents. Rather than winning by “design” we’re going to move to winning because our players can outplay your players. As the (very young) talent is moving into the program and onto the field, Notre Dame is getting more comfortable with the idea that we can just line up our guys and let them play. Coach Weis spoke during Fall camp about doing fewer things and doing them well, rather than overloading the team with more plays than they can handle.

3. “Let's Get Physical.” Due both to his NFL background and Notre Dame’s serious depth issues in previous years, CW has not been one to do a lot of practicing at game speed. Last year he realized that this was a problem and famously took the entire team “back to training camp” after the debacle in Ann Arbor. Part of the idea of returning to training camp was to find the team’s “niche.” But part of it was also to get more physical in practice. This Fall we have already seen many players forced to sit out for a few days because concussions seemed to be spreading through the team like a virus (or like jock itch at USC). I don’t remember talk of concussions in previous camps, so it seems clear that this camp has been very physical compared to years past.

2. “Tempo.” Tempo is closely related to physical play. I’ve been writing about tempo since August of 2007, and CW talked about tempo being an issue in the loss to Georgia Tech in last year’s opener. Last Spring and during Fall practice this year Coach Weis has remarked several times about how the team is working on tempo, on playing fast. So it seems that he understands the problem and is trying to fix it. I just hope it shows up on the field.

Based upon my keen observations from 2,000 miles away, I am encouraged that Coach Weis appears to have learned many of the lessons to be gleaned from a very painful 2007, and has taken positive, concrete steps to incorporate those learned lessons into the program for 2008. Which segues nicely into my general expectations for this 2008 edition of Notre Dame football.

Overall Expectations

Others have done a fine job of previewing the 2008 Irish squad with position-by-position analyses of the depth chart. (Here, here and here, for examples). For purposes of my analysis (I use the term “analysis” very loosely), Notre Dame returns in 2008 with most of the same guys from last year, with a few new faces sprinkled in. We didn’t lose many key players to graduation and the NFL draft, and a few freshmen are already listed on the two-deep (or even the one-deep). But for the most part the Irish are going to the dance with the same group of players that we saw slogging around on the crappy, muddy turf in Stanford’s new stadium in the 2007 finale. It’s really tempting for me to start 2008 with a clean slate and pretend all the bad things that were 2007 never happened. So I went back and read my review of the Stanford game as my starting point for looking at the new year. The key bits from that review focused on how the Irish did on each of their sixteen offensive possessions against the 97^th ranked defense in the country:

Sixteen possessions. Throw out possessions 10 and 16, which were kneel downs. Of the remaining 14 possessions, three of them ended on lost fumbles, one ended on a Clausen INT, one ended on a failed 4th-and-1, and one ended on a missed (but very makable) FG attempt. That's 43% of the time that our offensive possessions ended in mistakes that either cost us crucial field position or a scoring opportunity (or both). We scored on three of the fourteen possessions (21% of the time), and punted 5 times (36%). All-in-all that is not very efficient offense.

The Irish converted just 4 of 13 third down opportunities (31%) and were 0 for 1 converting 4th downs. Clausen was sacked five times, and Stanford beat us in time of possession 34:15 to 25:45 (and actually held the time of possession margin for each of the four quarters).

So that’s our jumping off point. 5 sacks, 3 lost fumbles, 1 INT, one turnover on downs, and one missed FG attempt. To me, Irish fortunes in 2008 do not hinge on Jimmy Clausen or Duval Kamara or Robert Hughes (or Michael Floyd or Jonas Gary) becoming superstars. Those fortunes don’t even hinge on the ND offensive line becoming a dominating unit. To me, Notre Dame’s season depends most upon the Irish offense taking care of the football, becoming more efficient, and avoiding the big mistake. If we can avoid the sacks, the fumbles, and the INTs, move the ball with just modest bit of efficiency, and then punt when we have to from somewhere near midfield, we will see a vast improvement in 2008.

Blue-Gray Sky has done some great work on the concept of measuring offensive efficiency by tracking the percentage of MOE (Major Offensive Errors), which looks at the items listed above (sacks, fumbles, interceptions) and adds dropped passes and offensive penalties. The essential concept is that if a team can commit fewer of these unforced, drive-killing errors than their opponent they are very likely to win the game. Last year Notre Dame had a better MOE rating than the opponent in just four games – the three wins and the Purdue game. (Notre Dame was within 7 points of Purdue with just under eight minutes to play).

Of course, significant improvement in offensive efficiency will depend on the O-line getting significantly better. They don’t necessarily need to physically dominate (though it would be nice), but they do need to work better together. They have to communicate with each other and understand their assignments and prevent the free-runners that disrupt the backfield and cause the sacks, fumbles, and tackles-for-loss. They have cut way down on holding and other penalties. If the offensive line can play more efficiently as a unit, it will give the skill guys on offense a chance to make some plays and will at least permit the team to effectively play the field position game. It would be gravy on top (and a big surprise) if the O-line is able to not only eliminate the blown assignments, but to actually use their beefed-up physiques to blow opponents off the ball and create some room for Hughes, Allen & Co. to get past the line of scrimmage and into the second level of the defense. If the O-line can assert itself physically, then we could see not just an improved year for the Irish, but a very good year.

I expect to see improved O-line play and a step up in efficiency in 2008, but I must be honest and admit that I don’t expect to see a dominant offensive line unit. Coach John Latina hasn’t put a dominant line on the field in the whole time he has been at Notre Dame, and I don’t expect to see a miraculous transformation now. The system seems to put an emphasis on pass protection, at the expense of a power running attack. Even in 2005 and 2006 when Brady Quinn was putting up great passing numbers, the running game was predicated on Darius Walker dodging a tackler as he took the hand-off in the backfield and squirting through a gap or weaving around end for a 4-yard gain. Darius never had a big hole between the tackles to run through. In 2005 and 2006 (and in 2007) our best short-yardage play was the QB sneak.

At the skill positions we have a group of talented, if young, running backs who will make the most of any hole or crease the line can create. My favorite back is Robert Hughes, who I think is the best overall blend of size and speed and does the best job of winding his way through the line of scrimmage. Armando Allen is the speed guy, but in his freshman campaign he had difficulty running through contact and we rarely got see him display his speed from scrimmage (although he showed real flashes returning kicks). A year in the weight room should make Armando a stronger runner and a more reliable blocker, so he could surprise us. James Aldridge is similar in style to Hughes, and will share some of the “big back” carries, but I expect him to be #2 in that role. Jonas Gray is this year’s top freshman running back, and many think he may push for carries. But we’ve learned not to get too dazzled by the “whoosh” factor of incoming freshman. The bottom line is, our running back corps is a strength of the team and I have great confidence in them.

At QB is of course a healthy, bigger and more experienced Jimmy Clausen. He has a lot of upside and will play as well as the pass protection and his receivers permit. If he has time and a man open, he’s going to put the ball on him. I’m not too concerned with JC. In the Blue-Gold game this year he was making all the required throws and seemed to be in command of the playbook. His arm looked very strong and he only made a couple of bad decisions. His accuracy wasn’t amazing (he threw a few balls high or behind receivers), but it was good enough to get the job done. JC is backed up my Evan Sharpley who is more than capable of getting it done if the O-line gives him a chance.

The “other” question mark on offense is the receiving corps. Led by veterans David Grimes, Robby Parris, George West and Will Yeatman (TE) the unit should at least be “solid.” Whether the passing game can move to the next level will depend on the young guys – Duval Kamara, Golden Tate, and freshmen Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph (TE). If Kamara can be more consistent, if Tate can climb the learning curve, if Floyd really is “all that”, then the Irish passing game has the chance to move from “solid” to “dynamic.” (Assuming the O-line can keep Jimmy on his feet).

I expect the Irish offense to be very improved, but I don’t expect it to be very exciting. I expect Coach Haywood to force opposing defenses to respect our running game and only take to the air when the defense has committed to stopping the run or when the situation forces his hand. I expect it to be balanced, but definitely run first, focused on controlling the ball and moving the chains. I expect a dramatic reduction in riverboat-gambler play calling. Punts will be up, going for it on 4^th down will be down. The number one priority will be taking care of the ball and eliminating drive-ending turnovers and penalties.

The reason for the plain-vanilla offense will be our dynamic, dare I say dominant, defense. Lost in the anguish of last year’s 3-9 was the fact that our defense under first year defensive coordinator Corwin Brown was good enough to win a lot of football games if they had just a little help from the offense. After finishing 64^th in total defense (average yards allowed per game) in 2006, Notre Dame was ranked 39^th in total defense in 2007, and 2^nd in passing defense (allowing just 161 yards per game through the air). When you think about how much time the defense spent on the field last season, and how rare it was for the defensive players to watch from the sidelines while the offense controlled the game, the improvement from 64^th to 39^th in yards allowed against a very tough schedule is pretty remarkable. Add one year of physical development and mental maturity to that mix of young guys, and add one psychotic new defensive coach (Assistant Head Coach and Linebackers Coach Jon Tenuta) to the mix, and I expect the Irish defense to set the tone for this season. Under Coach Brown the Irish defense last year became noticeably more aggressive and dynamic. Adding Coach Tenuta to the staff is like adding gasoline to a bonfire. It should be really cool to watch.

The strength of the Irish defense will be a veteran secondary, led by the 2007 OC Domer Player of the Year, safety David Bruton. The secondary is veteran enough and talented enough to hold the fort downfield while Coaches Brown and Tenuta use the other seven players on defense to terrorize opposing quarterbacks and offensive linemen. The young crop of Irish linebackers have the speed and athletic ability to be dominant pass rushers off the edge, as well as to cover and chase down opposing ball carriers in space. Given their youth, they will make some mistakes, but more often than not they are going spell trouble for the opposition. The D-line is seen as the question mark of the defense. Depth and experience issues are cause for concern, but the little bit of practice video we have seen shows that as a group the front seven have been more than holding their own against the first O-line group.

I am expecting the 2008 Irish to be led by the defense, much as the 2002 squad was. You’ll recall that in 2002 Notre Dame started the year with 8 straight wins led by an aggressive, opportunistic defense which featured several stars in the secondary (Gerome Sapp, Vontez Duff, Shane Walton, Glenn Earl). For much of that eight-game winning streak the Notre Dame offense was utterly impotent and was actually being outscored by the Irish defense.

I don’t expect the Irish offense to hearken back to the days of Carlyle Holiday and Pat Dillingham. I expect the offense to be much more productive than that. But the point is that even a very modest offense can win a lot of games if they take care of the ball, get off a good punt, and let a very aggressive defense create turnovers and scoring opportunities.

Between a very good defense and what I expect to be improved special teams, the Irish offense doesn’t need to be spectacular. If they can be efficient and relatively error-free, the defense should give them enough opportunities in the red zone to score all the points we’ll need to have a very good year.

Game-by-Game

With my general expectations for the 2008 Notre Dame team now on the record, here are just a few thoughts from me on each of the opponents the Irish will face this year.

San Diego State University Aztecs, Sept. 6^th, Home. The Aztecs return just eleven starters from a squad that went 4-8 last year as members of the Mountain West conference. Phil Steele drops this nugget on us: SDSU is 2 wins against 24 losses in road openers, including losing the last 15 straight. They are also 2 wins vs. 10 losses out of conference over the last three seasons. Steele picks them for 8^th place in the MWC. Athlon Sports has SDSU at #104 (pre-season) in the country and 9^th in the MWC. And all that was before the Aztecs lost Saturday (at home) to Div. 1-AA Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, 29-27. I will be very disappointed (and very worried) if Notre Dame wins by less than 40 points and if we allows SDSU to score a touchdown.

University of Michigan Wolverines, Sept. 13^th, Home. It’s tempting to look at this match-up against a team that beat the Irish 38-0 last year and feel that the tables have turned 180 degrees. But that would be only half right. The tables have turned for UM. They have lost their top two QBs, top RB, top two WRs, the top 4 tacklers, and head coach from a team that was expected to compete for a National Championship last season but who was an embarrassed 0-2 when Notre Dame rolled into Ann Arbor. Yes, the Wolverines are a much younger, inexperienced team, getting to know a new coach and a new system, so in some respects they look like ND did last year. But Notre Dame hasn’t changed all that much from the team that got whipped by UM last year. We do have more stability and continuity, and our players are a little more experienced. But we’re still very young and unproven. The question for this game is whether the Irish players have matured enough, improved enough, to take advantage of UM’s transition period as new coach Rich Rodriguez tries to implement a whole new system with a lot of new faces. I expect Notre Dame to win this game, and they’ll do it because of defense. In watching UM lose to Utah on Saturday (25-23, a damn shame really), you could see that they really struggled to run Dick Rod’s newfangled spread offense. Against the Utes the vaunted Wolverines mustered a net 36 yards rushing and just 167 yards passing for a total of 203 yards of offense. They’re going to get better, but they are not going to get better against the Irish. Coaches Brown and Tenuta are going to dial up a lot of havoc that is going to make the Michigan offense remember fondly their productive day against the Utes. The Irish “D” will shut down Michigan’s spread offense, and create turnovers to give the Irish “O” easy scoring chances. While running the ball on UM will be difficult, they did give up 305 passing yards to Utah. It won’t be easy, because Michigan still has a lot of talent and athleticism on the roster, but in an unusual twist, Notre Dame will actually exploit its edge in experience to win this game.

Michigan State University Spartans, Sept. 20^th, Away. Sparty returns most of the key pieces from a team that beat the Irish 31-14 last year in Notre Dame Stadium, and despite their loss to Cal on Saturday (31-38), they actually looked pretty good and were only outgained by 65 total yards on offense (467-402). So how can Notre Dame possibly defeat MSU? By playing a conservative, efficient offensive game that avoids the big mistake and wins the field position battle. Our defense will cause Sparty some problems, and we’ll be able to move the ball at least modestly on offense. James Aldridge ran for a net 104 yards last year against MSU and a 5.8 average per carry. Robert Hughes averaged 5.5 yards per rush, and Armando Allen had 4.3 yards per carry, although the passing game struggled as Irish QBs were sacked 4 times. This year we have to win the special teams battle. In 2007 MSU punted 5 times, but ND had zero punt return yards. ND punted 9 times and gave up 28 yards in punt returns. MSU averaged 32.7 yards for their 3 kickoff returns, ND averaged just 20 yards for its 5 kickoff returns. MSU had 1 touchback to ND’s zero. That’s a lot of “hidden” yardage and it has a big impact. Notre Dame started a single possession in MSU territory, and scored a TD on that drive. MSU started at the 50-yard line or better and scored 2 TDs and 1 FG. That’s 17 points and your margin of victory. This is the toughest game in the first half of the Notre Dame schedule, but the home team in this game has lost the last seven games. That streak continues as the Irish beat MSU in a mild upset, due to MSU turnovers and big special teams play from ND.

Purdue Boilermakers, Sept. 27^th, Home. Notre Dame fell to PU 33-19 in West Lafayette last year, but as noted above actually pulled to within 7 points of the Boilers with just under 8 minutes to play in the game. Purdue returns most of its key players from last year (although they do lose 4 of their top 5 receivers), but I pick the Irish to win this game comfortably. We lost last year despite out-passing (377 to 252) and out-gaining (426 to 371) Purdue. It’s a recurring theme, but penalties, turnovers, and special teams play cost us the game in 2007. In the 2008 re-match ND cleans up those problems and takes care of business.

Stanford Cardinal, Oct. 4^th, Home. Second year coach Jim Harbaugh is doing some good things on the farm, and his teams are going to cause trouble in the Pac-10, as evidenced by Stanford’s nice victory over THE Oregon State University (36-28) on Thursday night. They return 16 starters from the team that gave Notre Dame all it wanted last November in Palo Alto, a slopfest the Irish won 21-14. Stanford’s going to be better this year, but so are the Irish, and this one’s at our place. Stanford will be playing its fourth road game in a five week stretch when comes to South Bend. As excerpted in the “Overall Expectations” section above, Notre Dame’s offense was horribly inefficient against the Cardinal in ’07. Clausen & Co. will clean that up, and the defense will be disruptive enough that Stanford will falter in front of 80,795 Fighting Irish faithful.

University of North Carolina Tar Heels, Oct. 11^th, Away. Wow. There’s a lot of pre-season love for the Tar Heels. Phil Steele ranks UNC #38 in the pre-season and #2 in his list of “Most Improved Teams” for 2008. Athlon has them at #37 pre-season. But while Athlon predicts a “W” for the Tar Heels over Athlon’s 60^th ranked Notre Dame, Steele has the Irish ranked #1 “Most Improved Team” and ranked #19 in the pre-season. I’ll admit all the hype had me a little worried about this game. And then they started playing the actual games and Carolina had to mount a second half comeback to hold off Div. 1-AA McNeese State, at home, 35-27. Whew! I do expect UNC to be better as Butch Davis builds his program, but I don't think they're anything special this year. Notre Dame travels to the basketball school and takes care of business in a close game.

University of Washington Huskies, Oct. 25^th, Away. The "Bye" week comes at a good time so that the Irish can rest up and re-focus before flying all the way to Seattle to take on Ty Willingham's pack of vicious animals. Jake Locker, blah, blah, blah. The media will have a field day with the Weis vs. Willingham angle, but the steam has gone out of that a bit since UW has been so mediocre under TW, and since Willingham has been so visibly awful at recruiting for the Huskies. Folks are talking about an "improved" Washington team, but Phil Steele interprets "improved" to mean 8^th in the Pac-10, while Athlon predicts a 7^th place finish in conference. Washington opened the season at Oregon, and got worked 44-10, with most of the damage done by the Ducks' backup QB, as UW's heralded Locker was 12 of 28 passing for 103 yards and 57 yards rushing. Somehow I think the Irish defense will hold its own against a QB that's completing passes at a 43% clip. The UW defense also gave up 496 yards to Oregon, an average gain of 6.9 yards per play. Notre Dame beats the Huskies, handily. In an ironic twist, Notre Dame will play a role in getting TW fired for a second time.

University of Pittsburgh Panthers, Nov. 1^st, Home. Yet another team that had a lousy 2007 but is getting a lot of love from the media in the pre-season. Athlon has Pitt #27 overall and 4^th in the Big East. Phil Steele has the #25 overall and 3^rd in the Big East. Which is all good until Bowling Green rolled into town on Saturday. After Pitt opened up a 14-0 lead, BG rallied with 27 unanswered points and won going away 27-17. Pitt's highly touted LeSean McCoy was held to 71 yards on 23 carries. The last meeting between Pitt and ND was in 2005. It was a highly anticipated showdown between Charlie Weis and Dave Wannstedt, each in their first games coaching their new teams. Brady Quinn led the Irish to a beatdown of the Panthers, 42-21. I have seen nothing from Pitt since then that leads me to believe Wannstedt will out-coach Charlie Weis this time around. This is a bit of a trap game for Pitt, being a road game sandwiched between home games against Rutgers and Louisville. I like the Irish at home.

Boston College Eagles, November 8^th, Away. The Eagles are expected to take a step back this season, as they lost their star QB Matt Ryan to the NFL, and also lost their top three RBs. They opened this season with a rather modest 21-0 win over Kent State. As of right now they're favored to beat ND for a sixth straight time (!!!!). But by this 9^th game of the season I expect Notre Dame to be rolling. With eight games playing together, the offensive line has gelled and is playing well. The young receivers have matured and gained confidence, so Jimmy Clausen is turning heads with some gaudy highlight-reel throws. The defense has become dominant and the Irish finally snap BC's annoying streak.

United States Naval Academy Midshipmen, Nov. 15^th, Home. Congratulations to Navy for ending their 43-year losing streak against the Irish last season. This year marks the beginning of a new streak.

Syracuse University Orange, Nov. 22^nd, Home. Their mascot is a color. The color orange. Or is it the fruit? They won two games in 2007, Athlon predicts they'll win two in 2008. They opened this season with a 30-10 loss to Northwestern. I'll take the Irish at home.

University of Southern California Trojans, Nov. 29th, Away. I watched the Trojans' opener against Virginia, which they won 52-7. I looked closely for vulnerabilities, for signs that Mark Sanchez isn't up to the job. I saw none. USC, 2008 edition, looks every bit like the USC of the last several seasons. I'm as delusional as the next Domer, but while I won't rule anything out as being within the realm of possibility, I just hope that the Irish are more respectable against the Trojans than we've been the past two seasons.

Final Thoughts. Do I really think Notre Dame will finish the 2008 season 11-1? No. While I sincerely believe the Irish could, or even should, win each of their first 11 games, I also expect that a team as young as the Irish will have some untimely penalties and turnovers, or just come out flat, and let a couple of games get away from them. Counting the likely loss to USC, I expect nine wins, give or take one. Of course, a lot has to go right for nine wins to happen. But after last year I figure the Irish are due a little luck.