Brian Kelly Takes the Field: 2010 Expectations & Prognostications

The Notre Dame faithful have been waiting impatiently for the Brian Kelly edition of the Fighting Irish to take to the turf at Notre Dame Stadium, and now suddenly the first game of the 2010 season is bearing down on us like a runaway train and there doesn't seem to be enough time to brace for the inevitable collision. It's game week and there is much to do before kick-off on Saturday:

• Write my "Good Luck Coach Kelly" blog post. (Done).
• Prepare my pre-draft strategy and pre-rank players for the OC Domer Fantasy Football League draft. (Done).
• Submit my weekly picks for Subway Domer's college football pick 'em pool. (Done).
• Write my 2010 Fighting Irish season preview blog post (You're reading it).
• Write this week's contribution to the Irish Blogger Gathering. (Pending).
• Study NFL point spreads, pre-season college and NFL power rankings, and handicap three or four games for the contest against my Dad and my youngest brother. (Pending).
• Pre-trial preparation on my day job. (Really cramping my style!)

With so much still to be accomplished, I'm afraid the OC Domer season preview will be fairly short and sweet. Let's dive in!

What do I expect from Coach Kelly and the Irish in 2010? We've got a new coaching staff, a radically different playbook, but mostly the same players (although there are some surprises in the two-deep as several starters in 2009 have been passed up by new faces). Clausen & Tate are gone, but they are replaced by some outstanding, if raw, talent.

In trying to come up with a rational way of looking at the coming season I start with a few core assumptions:

1. Brian Kelly and his staff are at least as good at coaching today as they were at Cincinnati a year ago.
2. The player talent at Notre Dame is at least as good as the talent at Cincinnati.
3. The player talent at ND in 2010 is overall at least as good as it was in 2009.
4. The significant changes in coaches and system, coupled with a new quarterback, will result in a learning curve of some unknown duration and will result in some bumps in the road.

Viewing 2009 and 2010 through the prism of these assumptions leads me to some observations. The Cincinnati Bearcats went 12-1 last season (losing only to the Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl). The Fighting Irish were 6-6 in 2009. According to Jeff Sagarin, Cincinnati had the 44th toughest FBS schedule in 2009, while Notre Dame's schedule was ranked #37. That's not a significant difference. How is it that a team with less talent than Notre Dame could win six more games in 2009 than the Irish did when they both played comparable schedules?

The answer, of course, is that the Bearcats were better coached. They were significantly better coached.

And now, the coaching staff that won 12 games in 2009 with Cincinnati's talent is at Notre Dame with its more talented players (See Assumption 2). If the more talented players are coached as well as the Bearcats were last year (Assumption 1), then the Fighting Irish should be at least as good as, if not better than, the Bearcats of 2009, eventually (See Assumption 4, Learning Curve). At the very least, better coaching in 2010 should make the Irish better than they were in 2009 with a similar overall level of talent.

On offense, I expect that ND will end up with similar overall numbers as we saw under Charlie Weis when the offense was clicking. In 2009 the Irish ranked #32 in scoring offense (30.1 ppg) and #8 in total offense (451.8 ypg). Cincinnati was ranked #4 in scoring offense (39.3 ppg) and #11 in total offense (447.5 ypg). That isn't a huge gap between the programs in 2009. The difference I expect to see is that with the new scheme the offense will be more consistently productive. Fewer three & out drives. Less reliance on just throwing the ball up in the air and hoping that Tate or Floyd will make a great play. Less coming from behind and hoping Jimmy can pull off a miracle. I expect the new offense will steadily and reliably move the chains (albeit with a high tempo) rather than operate in fits and starts as we often did in 2009. Although the final numbers might look similar, the new offense will do a better job of controlling the game and managing field position. The receivers are a talented group (Floyd, Riddick, Jones, Rudolph), and after watching him in the Blue & Gold game I expect Cierre Wood to be a real home run threat every time he gets a small gap to run through. Much will of course depend on Dayne Crist. But Coach Kelly has a proven track record of getting his QBs ready to play at a high level.

On defense I expect to see improvement, but not drama. The Irish defense was a severe disappointment in 2009. The Corwin Brown & Jon Tenuta tandem blew up in Charlie Weis' face to some degree. There seemed to be some talent there, and it flashed occasionally, but the season was marred by atrocious tackling, missed assignments, and players out of position. The Notre Dame defense was ranked #63 in scoring defense in '09 (25.9 ppg) and #86 in total defense (397.8 ypg). Really, really disappointing. The Bearcats were better on defense in 2009, but only by about 20 spots. They were #44 in scoring defense (23.1 ppg) and #67 in total defense (374 ypg). That isn't a dramatic difference, but it is significant. Those 20 spots of defensive ranking appear to have been the difference between winning and losing close games. Notre Dame lost 6 games in '09 by a combined total of just 28 points. They lost to Michigan by just 4, Navy by 2, Pitt by 5, and UConn by 3. Cincinnati didn't lose any close games, but won three real nail-biters: By 3 over West Virginia, by 2 over UConn, and by just 1 over Pitt. The new defensive scheme seems to emphasize assignment football and keeping the play in front of you. No big plays, no high-risk high-reward blitz schemes. The D will be bend-but-don't-break, with an emphasis on fundamentals like TACKLING. The big plays will come when the opponent makes a mistake with an ill-advised throw, or a missed block, or a fumble. Make the opponent earn every yard and every point, and figure that we can slow teams down enough that the offense can out-score 'em.

I think the biggest difference we'll see will be very subtle. So subtle that you really won't see it unless you're looking for it. That difference will be game management. Coach Weis' teams were plagued by "bad breaks" or "bad luck" that resulted in blown leads, or wasted possessions, or missed opportunities that ended up costing the Irish winnable games. The lessons that Brian Kelly has learned in 20 seasons as a head coach will enable him to minimize the gaffes and the bad breaks and to maximize and seize upon the opportunities. Coach Kelly and his staff have a handle on the myriad small details upon which the outcome of a game can turn. As noted above, the Cincinnati Bearcats won all the close ones in 2009. And they won all the close ones in 2008 as well. Coincidence? I think not.

So I see a dynamic, entertaining offense, with the ball getting quickly into the hands of numerous play makers who will be fun to watch. I see a scrappy, fundamentally sound defense that makes offenses earn every yard. And I see a team that will look well-coached and disciplined and which minimizes mental errors. How do all these things translate into Win and Losses?

Let's look at the schedule. (Confidence level is my subjective prediction of the percentage chance of a Notre Dame win).

Sept. 4: Purdue. We beat the Boilers in '08 and '09, so getting them in our place with all the excitement of a new coach and a new season should mean a win. Normally Purdue is somewhat overlooked on our schedule as the third or fourth game of the year, typically coming off tough games against Michigan and Michigan State. This usually means that Purdue is a little more focused and "up" for the games than the Irish are. Not this year. This year Purdue is batting lead-off, and all Irish eyes are on the Boilers. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 85%.

Sept. 11: Michigan. We lost a game that should have been an important win for Charlie Weis in the Big House last season. But we get the Wolverines at our place this time, and UM's off-season has been filled with tumult and distractions. Plus, they can't cheat by breaking NCAA practice rules this year. The new Irish coaches are very familiar with Dick Rod's spread offense, so we should defend it much better this year. The desire to atone for the 2009 debacle in Atrocity in Ann Arbor will get the Irish off to a 2-0 start. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 75%.

Sept 18: @Michigan State. Night game in East Lansing. First road start for Dayne Crist, very hostile environment. Possible let-down off the win over Michigan. I am not convinced yet that our guys can go toe-to-toe with a very physical Sparty squad, which will have played two cupcakes as warm-ups prior to the ND game. Prediction: Loss. Confidence: 45%. (i.e., 45% chance of Irish win).

Sept. 25: Stanford. Andrew Luck is a really nice quarterback. And Jim Harbaugh is an excellent young coach. But Toby Gerhart, who rushed for 205 yards in last year's game, is now a Minnesota Viking. Harbaugh isn't going to out-coach Kelly. Irish back in the friendly confines, smarting from a tough trip to East Lansing, get back on track against the Cardinal. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 65%.

Oct. 2: @Boston College. Back on the road. A tough game, but B.C. comes off a brutal contest against Virginia Tech. We beat 'em in '09, and this year we're better coached. So we beat 'em in 2010. But it's close. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%.

Oct. 9: Pittsburgh. Irish lost a tough one in Pittsburgh in '09. Panthers picked by many to win the Big East in '10. Coach Kelly and his Bearcats beat Pitt @ Pitt in a close one last year. Can he pull the same feat at home with better talent? Yes, he can. Barely. Maybe. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 55%.

Oct. 16: Western Michigan. I guess I appreciate them making the trip, but I have no idea how the Broncos got on the schedule. What a lousy home game for all the alumni who travel across the country to catch one game per season. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 95%.

Oct. 23: Navy (@ Meadowlands). I don't like the Irish in the Meadowlands. But here is where the coaching experience, the up-tempo practices, the emphasis on speed of play and fundamentals pays off. No more nail-biters against the middies. It won't be a blow-out, but it'll be over by early in the 4th quarter. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%.

Oct. 30: Tulsa. Another really unusual opponent, the Golden Hurricane come into Notre Dame Stadium off a bye week. 5-7 in 2009 against a weak schedule, Tulsa nonetheless can be a dangerous team. As long as we come to play we'll be fine. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 80%.

Nov. 6: -BYE-

Nov. 13: Utah. An excellent home game! And the OC Domer clan will be in the house. Utah is a highly regarded squad that will be looking to make a name for itself on national T.V. The Utes run a spread offense, which won't confuse many Irish defenders who see it every day in practice. Notre Dame has an extra week to prepare for this one, while the Utes are on the road after playing a tough game against TCU. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 70%.

Nov. 20: Army (@ Yankee Stadium). Really cool game to see if you can make it. Lot's of historical overtones for the old school football fan. A typically hard-nosed, scrappy military academy team, but Army lacks the talent to hang with the Irish. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 85%.

Nov. 27: @ USC. Thanksgiving weekend, our daughter is bringing a bunch of her Notre Dame friends home for this game. USC is getting a lot of love in 2010, despite the bitch-slap they got from the NCAA. Notre Dame only lost to USC by 7 in 2009. We're going to be better in 2010 than we were in 2009. Is USC really going to be better than last season? I'm not convinced. This is a statement game for Coach Kelly. His legacy will begin on the floor of the Coliseum. Much like Charlie Weis' first game against the unstoppable Trojans in 2005, this will be an instant classic. Only this time the good guys win. Prediction: Win. Confidence: 60%.

Conclusion: An 11-1 first season for Coach Kelly? Possible, but not likely. Remember Assumption #4, above. There will be growing pains. Using my confidence factors for the twelve games we compute a more reasonable expected win total:

.85 + .75 + .45 + .65 + .60 + .55 + .95 + .70 + .80 + .70 + .85 + .60 = 8.45 wins

So, if we use my estimation of the Irish chances of winning each of their twelve games, we get an expected win total between 8 and 9. I'd really love to see 10 wins. But if we win 8 or 9 and see real progress and growth in year one of the Kelly era, I could live with that. Especially if we beat USC and avoid any really awful Syracuse and Navy type losses.

What are your predictions for the 2010 Irish?

Good Luck Coach Kelly

Six days from now a coin will be tossed into the Indiana sky, a football will be kicked down the middle of a perfectly manicured field inside Notre Dame Stadium, the Irish faithful on the wooden benches and on their comfy sofas across America will be holding their collective breath, and finally the answers will be revealed. The answers to our questions, certainly. But that isn't what Notre Dame fans really want. What we really want is the answer to our prayers. From Iraq and Afghanistan to London, Dublin, Haiti, Peru, Tokyo and Sydney; from Boston to Orange County and from Pasquerilla East to Carroll Hall, the Loyal Sons and Daughters of Notre Dame have been praying for the next Knute Rockne to lift us out of the purgatory of football mediocrity and restore the Fighting Irish to greatness.

Will Brian Kelly be the answer to all those prayers?

Will Coach Kelly dramatically succeed where Davie, Willingham, and Weis so spectacularly failed?

I eagerly embraced Boob and Ty and Charlie. I bought into the idea that Davie was a defensive genius and that he would bring enough speedy ath-a-letes from Texas into the program to maintain what Lou Holtz had built. I was totally sold that Ty Willingham was a young coaching phenom and molder of men who, as a black man himself, would be able to recruit to Notre Dame the talented players from the South who are often reluctant to attend a very white Catholic school in the wintry Midwest. I totally believed that Notre Dame alumnus Weis, with his NFL pedigree and Super Bowl bling, would stock the program with future NFL players and would win titles with his decided schematic advantage.

Yeah, well, not so much.

But am I bitter? Have I become a complete cynic? Truth be told the years spent wandering in the desert with Davie/Willingham/Weis have left a little bit of a bad taste in my mouth. My heart has been broken enough times that it honestly is hard to close my eyes and jump back in with both feet and my rose-colored glasses. I'll admit to dark moments of doubt. Am I living the impossible dream? Has Big Time College Football gotten to the point where a program that genuinely cares about giving its players a quality education can't compete on an elite level? Is the true student-athlete as endangered as the Dodo bird?

But it's nothing a little winning won't cure.

Is Brian Kelly "The Guy"? Here is what we know:

• Coach Kelly has twenty years of experience as a college head coach.
  
• He won two NCAA Division II Championships at Grand Valley State.
  
• He coached the Central Michigan Chippewas to a MAC title.
  
• He took the Cincinnati Bearcats to two straight BCS Bowl games.
  
• I repeat - he took Cincinnati to back-to-back BCS Bowl games.
• Coach Kelly grew up the Catholic son of a Boston politician and a huge Notre Dame fan.
• He talks a good game.

And that, for now is all we REALLY know. But it tells us a lot. It tells us that Coach was able to lift three different programs to a very high level. That's a Division II program, A MAC team, and a Big East team. That's three different schools and three different groups of players. Somehow, he was able to reach each of those teams and pull greatness from them.

He isn't a one-hit wonder, but he isn't necessarily a miracle worker either. When Kelly took over the head job at Grand Valley State in 1991, the Lakers were already a powerhouse, having gone 11-1 and 10-2 in 1989 and 1990. Under Coach Kelly GVS didn't crack the 10-win plateau again until 2001, Kelly's 11th season as head coach. But in 2001, '02, and '03 his team went 13-1, 14-0 (Div. II Champs) and 14-1 (Div. II Champs). Clearly, the years at Grand Valley State were the formative years for Brian Kelly as a head coach. He learned a lot of lessons, honed his craft, and built his "system." Whereas Bob Davie and Charlie Weis had to learn all the hard lessons of head-coaching while on the job at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly had thirteen seasons at GVS to figure it out.

At Central Michigan, Coach Kelly took over a program that had won 2, 3, 4, and 3 games in the four seasons prior to his arrival. A really struggling program. Kelly turned the program around, but it wasn't overnight. The Chips went 4-7 in 2004, just one win better than 2003. They went 6-5 in 2005, two games better than '04. And in 2006 they were 9-4 and won the MAC (although Kelly did not coach the Motor City Bowl as he had moved on to the Cincy job). But look at the progression: 1-game better in year one, 2 more games better in year two than in year one, and 3 more games better in year three than in year two. That is dramatic, accelerating improvement.

Kelly took over an improving Cincinnati Bearcats team from Mark Dantonio, who left Cincy to take the job at Michigan State. The 'Cats were 7-5 in 2006. In Coach Kelly's first full year there (he had coached the 'Cats to a win the International Bowl to end the '06 season), Cincinnati went 10-3 with a win in the Papa John's Bowl. That's a 3-game improvement in year one. The Bearcats went 11-3 and 12-1 in 2008 and 2009, winning the Big East, playing in a BCS Bowl, and finishing the season ranked in the Top 20 both years.

Looking at Kelly's history on the brink of his first season at Our Lady's University, one has to wonder: Is the task he faces at Notre Dame more like his challenge at Central Michigan? Or is it closer to what he inherited at Cincinnati? The Chippewas had been a bad football team for a number of years when Kelly got there, and it took a couple of years to really turn it around. The Bearcats, on the other hand, were an improving team under Dantonio and Kelly just jumped on the accelerator and was able to elicit dramatic improvement in year one.

While I am leery of leading with my heart, I think Coach Kelly faces more of a Cincy situation at Notre Dame than a CMU situation. While the team clearly under-performed in the Weis era, Charlie did do a pretty good job as a recruiter. There is talent in the program, and it just needs to be developed and coached. For all his woes, Charlie Weis took a team that was 6-4 in 2004 under Ty Willingham and went 9-3 in 2005. Charlie was on pace to leave a tremendous legacy at Notre Dame until he was hammered in 2007 by the voids in the roster left him by Ty Willingham. That isn't going to happen to Kelly. The cupboard in not bare in the wake of Weis' departure.

Although 2009 was bitterly disappointing, the 6-6 Irish lost six games by a combined total of 28 points. They lost by four points to Michigan in the Big House in a game they clearly should have won. They only lost to USC by a touchdown. And although Clausen and Golden Tate are gone from that team, almost everybody else returns. Dayne Crist was a highly touted quarterback recruit coming out of high school who many thought was better than Jimmy Clausen. Michael Floyd was every bit as good as Tate when healthy, and Theo Riddick and TJ Jones are play makers.

Can Coach Kelly take these players and close the gap? Can he figure out how to win the close games and how to finish strong in November?

Much has been written about the tempo, the speed, of football practices under Kelly. There is little doubt that he is maximizing the amount of work that can be squeezed from every minute of practice. And it certainly sounds like he is paying attention to the details, as he demands from his players. In the final practices of fall camp last week, the Irish were spending time on Coach Kelly's list of 49 unusual game scenarios, which he said has grown over the years from just 16 scenarios when he started at Grand Valley State. The scenarios run the gamut from how to call a timeout before a two-point conversion attempt, to the turtle punt, to taking a safety on purpose. I can't be the only one who remembers Jarious Jackson spraining a knee while taking an intentional safety against LSU in 1998, thus knocking him out of action for the USC game (a 10-0 debacle in the Coliseum).

I don't get to watch practices. There aren't any meaningful videos available of what the team is doing on the field. All we think we know about how the players are progressing comes straight from the coach's mouth. Coach Kelly says the team is working hard, and preparing well, and is close to being ready for Purdue. But with the exception of Lou Holtz, that's what head coaches always say.

One thing we do know is that the competition for a starting spot on this team is intense. Nobody can take a starting slot for granted. Or even a back-up spot. There is no seniority system, no undue loyalty to the upperclassmen. Talent will play. Fifth-year senior and Notre Dame law student Chris Stewart is being pressed hard by sophomore Chris Watt at left guard. Dan Wenger and Braxston Cave are neck & neck at center. Cierre Wood has blown past Jonas Gray and Robert Hughes at running back and is breathing down Armando Allen's neck. Walk-on Nate Montana appears to be #2 at QB, ahead of heralded recruits like Andrew Hendrix. TJ Jones is pushing Duval Kamara hard at the third WR position (and will pass him in my estimation). There is lots of competition at linebacker, with the vocal and talented Brian Smith on the outside looking in as he has been surpassed (for now) by Kerry Neal and Darius Fleming.

So we have some talented players working very hard and competing intensely for playing time. And we have a Head Coach who has a proven record of winning at the college level. It would seem that the ingredients for success should be in place. But now, with all eyes on Notre Dame Stadium in six days, it only remains to play the games.

Good Luck Coach Kelly.

Go Irish! Beat the Boilermakers!

Dusting Off the Crystal Ball

Happy August to all of you! It's been a little slow around here at OC Domer, but I've been busy with my day job and just couldn't bring myself to write yet another story about not-very-bright students getting arrested by not-very-bright Indiana law enforcement officials for underage drinking at an off-campus party. My thoughts on the situation haven't changed a bit since my last rant on the topic in September of 2008.

The only thing I would add is this: Coach Kelly, you obviously still have a lot of work to do to to in teaching your players the right way to conduct themselves. And yes, I do hold the football team, who are attending the University on full scholarship, to a higher standard than I do the rest of the student body. To me, this incident also shows a lack of leadership on the team. Were there no upper-class players there who were willing to tell the underage players that they needed to put down the alcohol and drink the un-spiked punch instead? A lot of work to do.

But back to the crystal ball. I am getting ready to begin the arduous process of writing the OC Domer Pre-Season Spectacular post for 2010. In doing so, I went back and dusted off my pre-season predictions for the past several seasons (since the inception of the blog), and the results were so hilarious that I had to share them with you. The point of this exercise is to hopefully give you a good laugh, and to also serve as a slap across the face to me that will hopefully knock off my rose-colored glasses before I make any predictions for 2010.

2007 Predictions:

Final Results: With young but talented players all over the field, and with new defensive coordinator Corwin Brown, the Irish basically win the games they won and lose the games they lost in 2006 (UCLA being the exception). But we don't get blown out by anyone. We aren't a Top 5 program yet, but at 10-3 overall, we end up just outside the Top 10 in the final polls of the season. Entering 2008 we are a Top 10 team fighting to become an elite Top 5 program.

Conclusion. So, this is how I see the season playing out. Is it a prediction? Not really. It's just a thorough explanation of where I see the program and what I think I'm going to see. Might Charlie's Fighting Irish exceed my expectations? They could. The offensive line could be dominant, the QB play spectacular, the young receivers amazing. The front seven could be energetic AND stout. We could beat Michigan and UCLA, we might even surprise everyone with an improbable win over the Trojans. On the other hand, the O-line might not be what we need it to be. The young QBs and receivers might sputter. The front seven might give up too many yards in the running game. If that happens, we could lose to Georgia Tech, Penn State, MSU and BC. It could be a disaster. But, as one sage once said "That's why they play the games."

2007 Actual: 3 wins against 9 losses. Blown out by Georgia Tech (33-3), Penn State (31-10), Michigan (38-0), USC (38-0), Air Force (41-24). A triple-OT loss to Navy. The only wins against UCLA, Duke, and Stanford. A total, unmitigated disaster.


2008 Predictions:

Final Thoughts. Do I really think Notre Dame will finish the 2008 season 11-1? No. While I sincerely believe the Irish could, or even should, win each of their first 11 games, I also expect that a team as young as the Irish will have some untimely penalties and turnovers, or just come out flat, and let a couple of games get away from them. Counting the likely loss to USC, I expect nine wins, give or take one. Of course, a lot has to go right for nine wins to happen. But after last year I figure the Irish are due a little luck.

2008 Actual: 6 wins against 6 losses in the regular season, plus a nice win the the Hawaii Bowl to end our bowl game losing streak. This team was all over the map. Strong wins over Michigan, Purdue, Washington. Awful losses to North Carolina, Boston College, Syracuse. Only an impressive bowl win over Hawaii saved Charlie Weis' job.

2009 Predictions:

I do pick Notre Dame as the favorite to win eleven of its twelve regular season games. Does that mean I think they will go 11-1? I certainly hope so, but that's where the "confidence" ratings included for each game factor in. Using the confidence ratings and a little math you can get a better idea of what outcome is more likely for the season win total, just like the guys in Vegas. Adding together the confidence ratings I assign to each game:

.80+.70+.60+.75+.90+.40+.70+.90+.75+.65+.75+.75 = 8.65 wins

Depending upon where you look, I've seen over/under win totals for Notre Dame set between 8.5 and at 9.0 wins, which is right in line with my own estimations as set forth above. I may be more optimistic or pessimistic than you, but I encourage you to try this yourself. Assign your own confidence values to each Notre Dame game and see what your personal over/under is for 2009. For me, 9 wins is what the Irish "should" achieve in 2009, all things being equal. If they earn less than nine wins, they have under achieved and only a very, very nice Bowl win would bring Coach Weis back in 2010. If they manage to win ten games, they will have beaten the odds in my view, and the extra win would have to be credited to Coach Weis who will have earned the chance to stay on as coach. If they win eleven or twelve, that would be a superior job of coaching and you'll need dynamite (or another year like 2007) to dislodge Charlie from the Gug.

What do I think will really happen? I bet the over. And got 25-1 odds on the Irish winning the Championship.

2009 Actual: 6 wins and 6 losses, including four losses in a row to end the season against Navy, Pitt, U-Conn, and Stanford. Adios Charlie.

Conclusion: I cannot be trusted to evaluate the fortunes of the Notre Dame football team. For 2007, 2008, and 2009 I predicted the team would win 9, 9, and 9 regular season games, which translated into 3, 6, and 6 actual regular season wins on the field. Not very impressive. But I'll give it a go anyway later in the month. Don't say you weren't warned!

As an aside, I challenge all my Irish blogging brethren to post their past prediction performance along with their predictions for 2010, so we can have total transparency, just like the Obama administration.

What tho' the odds

We're heading into the long July 4th holiday weekend, and I can just detect the distinct whiff of college football in the air. Basketball season is finally over, with the Lakers bringing home yet another championship (yawn!). Hockey is finally over with the ... heck I don't even know who won the freakin' Stanley Cup. Shouldn't basketball and hockey be done well before June? The baseball All-Star break is almost upon us, after which it will be all systems "Go!" for NCAA football mania, and probably even a little college football betting.

So now is a very good time to take just a little peek at what might be in store for the Fighting Irish in 2010 under new head coach Brian Kelly. Heaven knows that when the time comes I'll pick the Irish to win 'em all. But what do the experts think? To get an idea I checked out the current college football odds, in this case the odds to win this year's BCS championship. A couple of interesting tidbits there. First of all, the USC Trojans are nowhere to be found on the list. (Insert creepy evil-scientist laugh laughter here). This makes perfect sense, of course, given that USC is not eligible to play in the BCS Championship (or any other bowl game) this season.

The other notable tidbit, from a Notre Dame fan's perspective, is how the Irish fit into the mix. Listed at 40/1 to win the championship, Notre Dame is tied with Wisconsin as being ranked #17 on a list of teams most likely to win the BCS title. Here's that list, with the odds:

1. 'Bama (9/2)
2. Ohio State (6/1)
3. Oklahoma (13/2)
4. Florida (8/1)
5. Boise State (10/1)
6. Nebraska (14/1)
7. Texas (15/1)
8. Virginia Tech (16/1)
9. TCU (18/1)
10. (Tie) Iowa & Miami (20/1)
12. (Tie) Oregon, Penn State & LSU (30/1)
15. (Tie) Georgia & Arkansas (35/1)
17. (Tie) Notre Dame & Wisconsin (40/1)
19. Auburn (45/1)
20. (Tie) Oregon State, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Florida State & Washington (50/1)

Certainly this list is different than a typical poll or power ranking, as the odds of winning the title will depend a lot on how tough one's schedule is and how likely one is to get through conference play unscathed. Boise State may not be the 5th best team, but they have a pretty good chance of getting through the regular season undefeated and thus of staking a claim to a spot in the Championship game. Likewise, Ohio State has the benefit of a Big-10 (11? 12?) conference that shouldn't pose much of a problem for them.

The differences in the lists being duly noted, I do find it interesting to compare Notre Dame's standing with the odds makers with the respect they are getting (or not) in the various pre-season rankings. A really good resource for those rankings are found at Wikipedia, and here is how the Irish are perceived:

• Athlon: Not in Top 25 (#26)
• Lindy's: Not in Top 25
• Phil Steele: #16
• Sporting News: #29

With one notable exception, and with many more pre-season predictions yet to be published, the Fighting Irish aren't getting a lot of love. Interesting how closely Phil Steele's predictions line up against the bookmakers. Die-hard college football fans know that Phil Steele's pre-season ranking are the most accurate in the industry, historically.

Maybe I'll put $10 on the Irish to win it all. Certainly it would make the games even more compelling. Not that I need any more excitement. But the real value in this exercise is to help me try to get a handle on my expectations for the Fighting Irish in 2010. Because when I look at the schedule, I look at each game and say to myself, as I always do, "We should win that one."

[Note: Welcome ND Nation readers! I hope you'll add OC Domer to your bookmarks and check back often throughout the 2010 football season.]

Happy Hour

My previous post on the personnel changes in the Office of Residence Life at Notre Dame generated a few comments. Some reminded me that the folks at "Res Life" are good Notre Dame people who are just trying to do their jobs enforcing the rules. That's fair enough, but while I am not questioning the good intentions of the recently departed, I do reserve the right to question the manner in which they exercised their discretion and their authority.

Other comments were more in the nature of dancing in the streets. The recently retired Notre Dame Leprechaun (no, really) asked if students got "res-lifed" in my day? In "my day"? What the heck is that supposed to mean junior? I'm not THAT old. Am I? Get off my lawn you dang kids. By the way, you should check out the Leprechaun's new blog, Irish Creed, when you get a chance. Great perspectives from a couple of newly minted ND graduates and one current senior.

But seriously. Yes, students did get "res-lifed" back in my day. But you had to try just a little bit harder than today's students to get in serious trouble back in the early eighties. The story below should help contemporary readers understand where I and my peers are coming from when we bemoan the draconian approach the Administration has recently taken toward discipline generally, and alcohol in particular. The story is taken pretty much verbatim from a post I wrote several years ago over at Verminnet.com, a web page for Carroll Hall alumni. I'll admit that our experiences in Carroll Hall were not necessarily in the middle of the mainstream back then, but we weren't that far out of the norm either.

The story is called "Happy Hour":

I arrived at Notre Dame and Carroll Hall in August of 1982, having come all the way from California, alone. The bus from O'Hare dropped me and my trunk at the main circle, and I needed some help to find out where Carroll Hall was. I had seen it on the campus map the University sent me, and it seemed like it was sort of far from the rest of the buildings on campus. I didn't know the half of it. I was literally living a dream being able to attend Notre Dame, but I was a little bummed with the dorm I got.

No worries. I carried/dragged my trunk from the main circle all the way to Carroll, and the RA's greeted me and showed me to my room. It was a big cube of a room on the first floor, right across from the rector's office. My roommates were three New Yorkers (geeeeeez). John "Basil" Hayes and Jock Brody Mutschler were both from the Rochester area, and Scott Kiley was from Long Island. Basil, Jock, and myself were Navy, Army, and Air Force ROTC respectively. Scott was not the military type. Neither was Jock for that matter, but that's another story.

The most striking feature of our room was the plush wall-to-wall whorehouse-red carpet that we had inherited from the previous occupants. Those previous residents had dubbed the room "The Love Palace" and the name stuck, although I'm not sure we really deserved the tag. With four of us living there, and the rest of the Vermin wandering through because of our central location, it wasn't really a quiet place for getting to know that special someone. It might have been called the Insomnia Palace. I swear we never got a wink of sleep before 3:00 a.m. that whole year.

At any rate, I settled in with my new roomies. Before long, a couple of big bruisers came through the door and started demanding money from each of us. Turns out these were some seniors in the dorm, and they were collecting cash for the Happy Hour set for that Friday. I don't recall exactly, but they wanted $5 or $10 from each of us. At the time, that was a lot of money for me. My parents had me on a $50 per month allowance, and I hadn't been picked up on my ROTC scholarship yet. Plus, I wasn't much of a drinker, and I wasn't sure I wanted to go to some party. How naive I was. But these guys weren't taking "no" for an answer. After the shake down was over, some other dorm vets clued us in on what the Happy Hour was all about.

Here's the premise: On weeks of home football games, all during the week in classes, etc... you invited every desirable (or near-desirable, or at least breathing) girl you met to come on out to Carroll on Friday afternoon for our Happy Hour. Good music, free booze (and lots of it). A good time to be had by all. Chicks come, chicks drink, chicks get happy, maybe guys get lucky. The Carroll Happy Hour had a good reputation in some of the girls' dorms, and amazingly enough come Friday afternoon, the dorm was rocking! When you walked back up the drive to Carroll after Friday classes, the music was blasting across the lake. Inside (and often out on the front lawn as well) the kegs had been tapped and the beer was flowing. Inside, there were at least two bars set up. One was usually serving blender drinks (Sea Breezes made with ice, vodka, 7-up, and some sort of juice concentrate), the other was something else (I can't remember because I was usually working the Sea Breeze bar, and performed quality control as well.). These parties started at maybe 3:30 or 4:00 in the afternoon. They would die down a bit as dinner hour came, and then as people left for the pep rally. But they usually went on at least at a low level until about 2:00 a.m. on Saturday morning (I think Parietals kicked in at 2:00 a.m. on the weekends, so the ladies had to leave at that time). Although the first floor was the epicenter of the action, the Happy Hour really encompassed the entire dorm. Some partied in big groups downstairs, other partied in more intimate groups on floors two through four.

I remember vividly one scene from my first Happy Hour. I was standing in the party room on the first floor, just down the hall from my room, talking to one of the RA's. He was drunk off his ass, leaning against the wall to hold himself up. He was looking a little ragged, and was quite a bit overweight. And he was passing on a little bit of wisdom. "I used to be like you. In shape, great high school athlete. But before long, you'll look like this too." He was commenting on the crop of young, naive, fresh-faced, super-fit freshman that had just joined the Hall. We thought the guy was pathetic and crazy and bitter. Little did we know.

The Happy Hour was the focus of social life in Carroll Hall, and it gave us our identity. It wasn't always pretty. Lots of guys (especially the freshman) got way too drunk and out of control or sick. Hijinks were common (water drops? Pizza heists? Often post-Happy Hour entertainment). Nicknames were earned. The best example of this from my group of friends was Steve (Last name withheld to protect the sloppy drunk), who was from Texas. One Friday afternoon, during a particularly good Happy Hour, a group of us decided that we wanted to go to the pep rally, and Father Steve was going to take us over to Stepan Center in his van. At any rate, sometime between leaving the dorm for the rally, and returning afterwards, Steve got very sick and blew chunks everywhere. Chunks. The name absolutely stuck. While people later meeting him might assume that "Chunks" got his name from being kind of chunky (he was a big guy), we all knew how he really got the name. Do you remember the show Cheers? When Norm walks in? "NORM!" everyone shouts. Everywhere Steve went for four years, his fellow Vermin would greet him with a chorus of "CHUNKS!"

Many of the stories posted on VerminNet have some connection to the Happy Hour. Of course, nowadays the University would consider our behavior reprehensible. Well, they did then too, but we were pretty much out-of-sight, out-of-mind, and Father Steve was very lenient with us.

I believe it was in my Junior year (1984-85) (Father Steve's last year as rector) that the University killed the Happy Hour. New University policy that year essentially prohibited any alcohol consumption by students under 21 (although they would tolerate drinking in your room behind closed doors if you didn't draw attention to yourself). Alcohol consumption at dorm parties was limited to 21 and older, and was relatively strictly enforced.

It was the end of an era. We held a funeral for the Happy Hour. Father Steve let us borrow some vestments, candles, etc.. from the chapel. We had a last party, and then we laid the Happy Hour to rest. We had a funeral procession, some words were said. And a couple bottles of booze along with some mementos were buried in a hole out behind the dorm. We even had a headstone with "R.I.P." on it. I don't know if the headstone or the grave is still there. I doubt it. But I know there are people out there in cyberspace with pictures of the event, and I think I've got a commemorative button in my trunk somewhere (the same trunk after all these years).

Ding-Dong The Witch Is Dead?

The South Bend Tribune is reporting that Bill Kirk is no longer the University of Notre Dame's associate vice president for residence life. This report seems to be clearly related to other news:

1. Mike Ragone will apparently be eligible to play for the Fighting Irish this season despite this incredibly bone-headed move to get arrested for possession of marijuana on May 8th, and

2. Rev. Mark Poorman, vice president for student affairs, announced last fall that he would be stepping down from that post.

Reading between the lines, it appears that University leadership may have come around to the same opinion as Charlie Weis and many disgruntled alumni and students that the "Res Life" office at Notre Dame was out of control and was having a detrimental impact on the Notre Dame community. Thus, an overhaul of the entire organization, with Mike Ragone as the first (and darn lucky) beneficiary of the changes.

I expect that Notre Dame will continue to hold its athletes and all its students to a high standard of expected behavior. But I also hope that these changes are a harbinger of the introduction of some common sense and some compassion into the Res Life disciplinary process.

Lack of Institutional Control

The NCAA has finally spoken on the Reggie Bush & O.J. Mayo investigation. In sum, the committee was wholly unimpressed with the NCAA rules compliance efforts of the University of Southern California and actually dropped the "lack of institutional control" hammer on them.

Here is the NCAA's release which summarizes their findings.

Here is the full 67-page report.

I have now read the entire report. Good stuff. Reggie Bush's parents lived in a house provided by wanna-be sports agents rent-free for a year. Reggie got a nice Chevy Impala, with very expensive rims, stereo, and alarm system, from the same wanna-be agents. Reggie and his folks and some of his friends received various benefits of cash, airline tickets, hotel rooms, and limo service from the same wanna-be agents. Then Reggie and his family stabbed the first group of wanna-be agents in the back and started getting benefits, including a paid "internship" and some travel benefits from a second group of wanna-be agents. This really annoyed the first group of wanna be agents, who then enlisted a USC assistant coach (apparently running backs coach Todd McNair) to pressure Reggie into living up to the deal he made with the first group of agents. The assistant coach denies this ever happened and the NCAA flat-out calls him a liar.

O.J. Mayo (and some of his boys) received cash, a 42-inch flat screen T.V., travel, clothes, shoes, meals and other stuff from some scummy "marketers" who acted as go-between essentially representing O.J. in the recruiting process.

In both cases, what got USC in hot water with the committee was its utter lack of curiosity when confronted with serious clues that NCAA rules were being broken. Time and time again representatives of USC (football coaches and basketball coaches mostly) had information that would have led any reasonable person to conclude that something fishy was going on, and in every instance they chose to essentially ignore the information rather than engaging in prudent follow-up to determine whether there was a problem the University needed to address. The NCAA notes that for most of the period in question the compliance "staff" for the entire University was two people, and that at one point the compliance staff was just a single person. Given the high-profile nature of the USC athletic program and the athletes it recruits, the NCAA strongly felt that USC needed to allocate significantly more resources to its compliance efforts.

To me, the biggest message the NCAA is sending with this report is that the "ostrich" approach to potential NCAA violations by member institutions is not sufficient to shield them from responsibility. Sticking one's head in the sand when the evidence of corruption is swirling around you, so that you can later claim you didn't know anything about it, is no longer an option. I'm looking at you, Pete.

The NCAA was also disturbed by the environment and the atmosphere surrounding the football program and football players at USC. This led to one of the more interesting sanctions imposed: The ban on non-university personnel traveling with the team or being at practices, on the sidelines, or in the locker rooms before, during, or after games. College football's version of the Showtime Lakers just got canceled. Sorry Will Ferrell and Snoop Dogg.

As for the sanctions themselves, I don't think anybody will seriously argue that USC got a slap on the wrist. They are labeled a repeat-offender and the committee states that the decision on whether or not to impose a total T.V. ban was a close one. As it is, the Trojans can only award up to 15 new football scholarships (and carry no more than 75 total) for the next three seasons. They are banned from post-season play for two years. All wins in which Reggie Bush played from December 2004 through the 2005 season are vacated. This means that USC had a combined record of zero wins (all 12 wins are vacated) and one loss (The BCS title game loss versus Texas still stands) for the 2005 season. Unfortunately, USC's loss is not Notre Dame's gain, as a vacated win is not the same as a forfeit. The Irish still record the loss, although I would advocate for a giant asterisk next to the "Bush Push" game in the N.D. media guide. Those are the most significant of the twenty-five different sanctions imposed.

No word yet, as far as I know, regarding the BCS Championship USC won in January of 2005 in the Orange Bowl over Oklahoma. If Reggie played in that game, it stands to reason it would have to be vacated unless the BCS is not bound by the NCAA ruling. Also still waiting to hear from the New York Downtown Athletic Club.

Basketball got hammered as well, and even women's tennis took a hit. Cheating in football and basketball is one thing. But cheating in women's tennis is simply depraved.

It's really, really tempting to gloat. I'll admit I have gloated a little, mostly privately. But to me the big picture here is that the NCAA did something very important today. They took a stand for the integrity of college athletics, and they severely disciplined one of the geese that lays the golden eggs in college football. A cynic might say that they cut off their nose to spite their face. I am instead reminded of the biblical passage:

And if thy hand offend thee, cut it off: it is better for thee to enter into life maimed, than having two hands to go into hell, into the fire that never shall be quenched.

What does all this mean for Notre Dame? Well, we get to put an asterisk in the media guide, as noted above. We'll get a bit of a recruiting edge against USC for a few years because they won't be able to offer as many scholarships, and the taint of this scandal will hamper them for a while with some prospects. The bowl ban and the scholarship limits will likely hurt USC's on-field performance for a while, which should give the Irish a chance to restore the proper balance to the USC-ND series. Life for a Notre Dame alumnus in Orange County will be a little more pleasant as hopefully today's report will help to tone down the arrogance level of the many USC alumni and bandwagon fans in the O.C.

But I can't help but wonder what Charlie Weis thinks of all this? Notre Dame ended the 2005 regular season at 9-2, the only blemishes on their record an overtime loss to Michigan State (epic comeback from a 21-point deficit) and the "Bush Push" loss to USC. What would have happened if Reggie Bush, who has today been ruled ineligible for that entire season, didn't play that day? He ran for 160 yards and three touchdowns in that game. If USC hadn't played an ineligible player, the Irish probably defeat USC, ending their 27-game winning streak in what would have been one of the biggest wins in Notre Dame football history. The Irish end the regular season at 10-1. Would they have played in the BCS Championship game?

The rap against Charlie was that he never got that "signature win." A win against USC in 2005 would certainly have qualified. Nobody would have questioned his contract extension. Team confidence would have soared. Recruiting would have been even better. Maybe even good enough to prevent, or at least moderate, the disaster we saw on the field in 2007. Things might have been a lot different for Coach Weis. I think I'll probably drink a cold one for Charlie tonight.

Interesting side note: Do you remember Missy Conboy? Missy Conboy is the Deputy AD at Notre Dame and actually served as interim Athletics Director before Jack Swarbrick was hired. Well, it turns out that Ms. Conboy is also a member of the NCAA Committee on Infractions and is a signatory on today's report. I'd love to buy her a drink or two and just get her talking. I'm sure it would be very entertaining.

Irish Display Progress in Blue & Gold Game

Well the 2010 Blue & Gold Game is in the books, and Coach Brian Kelly has to be pleased with what he saw. The stat sheet isn't out yet, but I wanted to quickly share my initial impressions of the game.

Of course all eyes were on Dayne Crist and his surgically repaired knee, and Dayne looked very good physically while taking every snap for the Blue squad in the first (and most important) half. The first half was played under normal game clock rules and generally featured the players who are on the two-deep depth chart or fighting for a spot on it. The second half was two 12-minute quarters with running clock. It went very quickly and was the opportunity for the back-ups and walk-ons to see some live fire in Notre Dame Stadium.

The most surprising aspect of the game for me was how well all the quarterbacks looked in the new offense. Dayne Crist started for the Blue squad, while Nate Montana ran the Gold team, and both seemed very much in command of the offense, getting everyone lined up and generally making the proper reads and getting the ball where it needed to go. Dayne looked to me to be a little ahead of Nate as far as making the reads and getting the ball out quickly, and he had more zip on his throws, at least until he started to look a little fatigued late in the first half when his throws started falling a little short. But Nate was not far behind Crist in execution and actually had a better stat line for the game. I did not expect our #2 quarterback to look as far along in learning the offense, and I certainly did not expect anything from the #3 QB, Tommy Rees, who looked like he could step in and play if he is needed. Pretty impressive all-around performance from the QB corps (and the coaches who got them ready).

The other really big surprise for me today was Cierre Wood. Wow, that kid has a burst! It didn't take very long to see why Theo Riddick is now a wide receiver (and a good one at that). Wood showed acceleration through through the hole that the Irish haven't seen in decades. He gets through the hole and into top gear right now. If he gets half a step on a defender, he is not going to get caught. I was reminded of the time that Charlie Weis talked about Munir Prince's "whoosh!" speed. Well, we never saw Munir's "whoosh!" translate to a game situation, but Cierre Wood is the real "whoosh!" deal. Armando Allen is the starting running back, but he won't ever get too comfortable in that role because Wood is gaining on him fast.

Robert Hughes and Jonas Gray also looked very good at times. The bottom line is that Coach Kelly has plenty of depth to draw on at running back, especially since we'll generally see only one back on the field at a time.

The one wide receiver that really stood out today was the early enrollee, TJ Jones. Although he doesn't look very big, he did look very quick and sure handed. That young man is going see playing time early and he is going to be a play maker. Shaq Evans also had a good day.

Both Kyle Rudolph and Mike Ragone had very productive days at the tight end spot, and more importantly they both looked 100% healthy.

The defense, although playing vanilla sets, played generally very well and most importantly seemed to tackle much better than last season. Manti Te'o stood out for his instincts and his speed, and Steve Filer surprised by leading the team in tackles. The defensive line seemed to be getting a good push up the middle and had good awareness in batting down several passes.

All in all, I was very pleased that the team on both sides of the ball appears to have already grasped a good understanding of the basic sets they will be using next season, and that the understanding extends fairly broadly across the roster so that Coach Kelly and his staff are developing a lot of depth. The game was played very cleanly with very few penalties, mental mistakes, mishandled balls, etc... I take that as a sign that Coach Kelly's insistence on discipline and attention to detail has begun to take hold.

Overall I was very pleasantly surprised by all the progress the coaches and the team have made over the course of just 15 spring practices. I don't know how many wins that will translate into come the fall, but I am now confident the team will not be unprepared when Purdue rolls that big drum into Notre Dame Stadium on September 4th.

Lou Two?

"The Shirt" has been unveiled, and the 2010 edition of the Blue & Gold Game is upon us. As we wait for the public premiere of the latest version of the Fighting Irish, I wanted to share my thoughts on what has essentially been the prologue of the Brian Kelly Era. I was hoping to make this post much more in-depth, but time constraints (it's already really late on Friday night) dictate that it be just a summary of my impressions. But I think you'll get the flavor.

Lou Two? It hit me like a ton of bricks about a week ago when watching some of Coach Kelly's post-practice remarks to the media that he sounds a lot like Lou Holtz. His remarks that day were particularly tough on Dayne Crist, criticizing his sloppy footwork and his technique in general. He also remarked that "right now we're not a very good football team" and lamented the need to motivate players who are lucky enough to be wearing a gold helmet and playing for Notre Dame. That dose of pessimism and poor-mouthing was vintage Lou. But the similarities don't end there. When Lou came to Notre Dame he found a group of players that thought a little too much of their own abilities, and he had to bring those players down a peg by instilling a much stricter sense of discipline and by emphasizing the concept of "team" over the individual. We're seeing from Coach Kelly a lot of talk about the sense of entitlement he perceived when he walked into the Gug and the need to find the Right Kind of Guys (RKGs) who come to Notre Dame because they want to be part of the tradition of the Fighting Irish, not because it will enhance their chances of being drafted by the NFL. The final similarity I see is the primacy of the "system." Under Lou the Irish ran the option offense. It was who they were. Everyone knew the plays they were going to run, and the game plan was simply to execute the system better than the other team could defend it. Under Coach Kelly the system is his version of the spread offense. His goal is to develop his team to a level of unconscious competence in the spread and then execute it at a high level on game day, regardless of who the opponent is. So, at the outset, the Brian Kelly Era feels an awful lot like the beginning of the Lou Holtz Era. I think these two coaches have very similar ideas about how a head football coach should go about his business. I hope Coach Kelly can have results that compare favorably to Lou's as well.

Tempo. We've had some glimpses of the team's spring practices, although we haven't really been able to see anything meaningful. But we've certainly heard and read a lot about tempo. Those who have observed the practices have said that they are remarkable for the high tempo. Coach Kelly himself has on numerous occasions stated that one of the biggest challenges for the players and the team in the spring has been adjusting to the high tempo at which he expects them to play. But does all the talk about tempo mean anything? Or is it just so much more "new coach" rhetoric? I think all the emphasis on tempo is very significant. Even Charlie Weis noted that one of the problems that really vexed the team in 2007 was "tempo." I have written quite a bit about tempo, or the lack thereof, here on this blog. For example, after the loss to Georgia Tech to open 2007 (sorry to bring that up):

In talking about the loss, Coach Weis had a different take. It wasn't that our guys didn't know what to do, it was a "tempo" problem.

“It isn’t just the players playing each other, it’s handing the speed of the game. You can simulate it in practice the best you can, but obviously they did a much better job than we did of handling the speed of the game. They controlled the tempo with their defense versus our offense.”

And again -

“I thought the speed of the game, especially the offensive front against their defensive front, we were playing at two different tempos.”

What does that mean? Is that like "Well, Mr. and Mrs. Domer, it's not that little Johnny can't read. He actually reads very well. It's just that he reads at a slower tempo than the other children."

Oh, is that all?

And, more importantly, can you fix a "tempo" problem? Because if we don't fix our "tempo" problem I have a very strong feeling that this could be an issue down the road. Like this week in Happy Valley. Or in Pasadena. Or when the Trojans come calling.

This "tempo" issue has been discussed before here at OC Domer. Following the fan appreciation day practice in August I posted my thoughts on what we learned (or didn't learn) from that public practice. Included in my ramblings was the following:

It seemed to me that the line play was only going about 80% speed. Very little real smash-mouth going on. That, and the poor overall quality of the video posted at UND.com (too small, too grainy) makes it very difficult to evaluate line play. So I won't try.

Much has been made of the coaches requiring the defense to "run" a lap around the field when they lined up with only ten men on one play, as though the coaches were really cracking the whip. I was disappointed in how most of the guys dogged it on the lap. They pace was very slow, and many of the guys cut the corners in the end zones. I know the guys are fatigued after a week of camp, but maybe the reason USC and LSU run laps around us on game day is that we don't really "run" our laps at practice. Practice slow and play slow. Maybe I'm being unfair and too harsh, but that "lap" bothered me.

So maybe we've had a tempo problem for a while. If so, I am really disappointed. Living in Southern California, I am subjected to a rather steady stream of USC coverage. I've built up some immunity to it and no longer break out in hives. One common, recurring theme from those who visit Trojans' practices is that they are impressed by the high tempo of USC practices. If I know that one of the distinguishing characteristics of the current top program in the country is their high-tempo practices, surely that word has gotten out to the coaching community. Why wouldn't we (Notre Dame) be trying to emulate that? And if we are trying, why isn't it translating to Saturdays? Is it because we're coaching it wrong? Or is it because our guys are just too slow to play at that higher tempo? I sure hope it's the former, because coaching techniques can be fixed. If it's the latter, we're in serious trouble, because you can't teach speed.

It certainly seems that "tempo" is central to Coach Kelly's ideas about how he wants his teams to play the game, and it appears that he puts his money where his mouth is on that point by forcing the team to work at a very high tempo 100% of the time in practice. Hopefully in will translate into a team that plays faster and with more urgency than we have seen at Notre Dame in many years.

Defense. With all the focus on Dayne Crist and the new offensive system, the defense is getting overlooked. In listening to the coaches, it is clear that the new defensive system will be a significant departure from the Jon Tenuta experiment. Rather than a "Tora! Tora! Tora!" attack mentality, this year's defense will be a more disciplined unit with greater attention to gap control and playing one's assignment. Nobody wants to say it, but it is going to be a "bend-but-don't break" scheme that will focus on slowing down the opponent and avoiding the big offensive play. Once Coach Kelly's spread offense is hitting on all cylinders, a solid though perhaps unspectacular defense should be more than sufficient to enable the Irish to win what I expect will be a lot of shoot-outs. But the offense will surely sputter for a while as Dayne and the receivers grow in it, and the defense is going to have to be more than just "solid" if this team is going to win games in 2010. The defense is going to have to generate turnovers and it will have to be very stout when faced with tough situations following stalled drives and turnovers by the inexperienced offense. I have no idea what to expect from this unit, but I have no doubt that it needs to be a lot better than it was in 2009. Hopefully the new 3-4 scheme will be a better fit for our personnel, and hopefully the new defensive coaches can teach basic tackling techniques better than the previous staff did. There is plenty of talent on this side of the ball, and if they can learn the new schemes sufficiently well to "play fast" without making too many mistakes they could be very good. Coach Kelly's public comments on the defensive talent on this team have been very positive. I don't have a lot of insight to offer on what the defense will do. My only insight is that I think folks are underestimating how important it is that the defense be very good right out of the box since it has to be expected that there will be growing pains on the offensive side of the ball.

Chuck & Duck The Spread Offense. In order get some idea what to expect from Coach Kelly's offense, I have been watching this Tony Pike 2009 highlight video:




Obviously the quarterback drives the bus in this offense, and Dayne Crist will have to be very good from week one or we are in trouble. There is no place for the QB to hide in this scheme. There really is no way to protect the QB or slowly bring him along. It is pedal-to-the-metal from the coin flip. But the receivers are equally important. They have to run their routes correctly to get open, and they have to be able to catch the ball, even if the throw isn't perfect. It is clear from watching the above video that Tony Pike had a tremendous degree of trust in his receivers. He frequently threw the ball to receivers who weren't really open and trusted that they would be aggressive enough to come down with the ball or at least prevent an interception. In this system the QB is frequently going to be throwing the ball under duress, and he won't be able to deliver it to his wide-outs on a silver platter. This offense appears to assume that the QB will simply get the ball out of his hand and into the general vicinity of the receiver, who is expected to attack the ball and come down with it. That's the "bad news" for the receivers, so to speak. The good news is that the wide receivers will have many, many opportunities to make big plays. The ball is in the air all the time. When the offense is working, the receivers frequently catch the ball in space with plenty of room to make big gains. There will be plenty of wealth to spread around to those players who are able to grasp the scheme and step up their game. Michael Floyd is obviously the #1 WR right now. But this offense needs at least four WRs on the field at a time, and Golden Tate is playing for Pete Carroll now. It's time for the young guys to show us what they can do.

BGS RIP. The best college football blog on the 'net has decided to go out on top. The Blue-Gray Sky was the best college football blog when I started OC Domer in March of 2007, and they were still the best when they retired their jerseys on March 25, 2010. Week in and week out, season in and season out, the Blue-Gray Sky was the gold standard against which Notre Dame football blogs were measured. While the rest of us made do with our own modestly informed opinions based upon watching the game once, live, while drinking beer and eating nachos, the crew at BGS watched film, broke it down, and gave us actual analysis (accompanied by video clips, diagrams, and screen-caps) of what the team was doing and why it was or wasn't working. That's a lot of hard work and it was without peer in the Irish blogosphere. And it was greatly appreciated by me and thousands of other loyal BGS readers. It was a proud milestone for the OC Domer blog when BGS added us to their blogroll. Thanks for the traffic guys. Here's a portion of my comments at BGS upon hearing the news that they were shutting it down:

Running my own one-man blog, I completely understand how much work goes into a quality post. And as a dad with a job, I understand how hard it is to find the time to blog well. Thanks for all the blood, sweat & tears you guys have poured into your site the past six years. And good luck to all of you as you move on to the next chapters of your lives. But you and BGS will be missed.

NFL. Congratulations to Jimmy Clausen on being drafted by the Carolina Panthers! It looks like a great fit for Jimmy. The offense is the same one he ran at ND, and it is a fundamentally sound team that just needs a good QB to get to the next level. Jimmy will have a great chance to compete for the starting job right away, and if he wins it he will be in a much better situation to stay healthy and win games than Brady Quinn was in with the Browns. Good luck to Jimmy, and I'm glad he wasn't in New York where the cameras could document his pain as he slid down the board. And congratulations also to Golden Tate, who will be in Seattle playing for his old nemesis Pete Carroll. Great pick by Pete, and good fit for Golden as Seattle sorely needs a playmaker like him. How long has it been since Notre Dame had a player drafted (Clausen at pick 48) before the first USC player was drafted (Taylor Mays at pick 49)? Weird that Tebow was drafted ahead of Clausen and will be competing with Brady Quinn in Denver. I hope BQ wins that job and keeps Tebow on the sideline for a long time.

Conclusion. It's been exciting to watch Coach Kelly take over the Fighting Irish and begin to mold it in his image. But up until now its been like fingering the presents under the tree before Christmas, trying to figure out what's inside the wrapping. Tomorrow the wrapping begins to come off and we get to see what Santa brought us. I hope Santa got my letter.

Go Irish!

The Observer - Brian Kelly to build on community

Interesting article in the Observer today about Coach Brian Kelly's recent meeting with student leaders. He said a lot of good things, such as:

“The kind of guys that I am recruiting here now are going to be hardworking and they better recognize the value of the Notre Dame education,” he said. “Not all of them will be on the same elite level as the students in this room, but they are going to work their butts off.”

And

“The number one thing I talk to my players about is whether or not they care,” he said. “If you aren’t excited to play for the University of Notre Dame then you are not going to play here.”

And

“My players should understand that if they’re going to come to Notre Dame, it’s going to be about being at a unique place,” he said. “There is a uniqueness to us that doesn’t make us better or worse, but it makes us different. The right kinds of guys understand that.”

And

“We’re not going to be bringing in guys who want to hang out here while they wait for the NFL. Those days are over,” he said. “I want guys who want to play for Our Lady — I usually get what I want.”

All of which I agree with 100%. But part of the interview struck me as being a little bit at odds with the actions we have seen from the coach so far. See if you have the same reaction:

Kelly said he was expecting the football team to get rid of the attitude of “us” and “them” and become a part of the student body.

“My job is to reconnect some of the things that I believe haven’t been emphasized in the proper manner,” Kelly said to the students. “This is not a relationship of separation. It should be all of us together.”

Kelly said he saw a divide between student-athletes and the rest of the student body when he arrived on campus this past winter. He said he believes football is the best way to “get the bridge between students and athletes back.”

“I want the players to reengage with something that is really unique to Notre Dame,” he said. “Part of that is the community and the love students have for what happens on this campus.”

Okay, be honest with me, how many of you when you read that excerpt immediately think "training table" and "bookstore basketball"? Those are the two things that jumped into my head. Coach Kelly obviously has a lot of work to do to take this football program back to the level on which it belongs, and it is to be expected that he will change the way the football program operates in all areas. But I have to admit to being a little skeptical about his desire to tear down the wall between the students and the athletes when the first significant move he made upon becoming head football coach was to institute a training table in the Gug that takes the football players out of the dining halls, where they get to really be a part of the student body, and sequesters them into a private athletes-only facility where they get specially prepared meals served at special hours. I'm not saying that there isn't a very sound football reason for training table. I am saying that training table, especially the way it has been implemented, does not build a bridge between students and student-athletes.

Likewise, Coach Kelly's decision to prohibit football players from participating in the Bookstore Basketball tournament this year, while justifiable from a football perspective, serves to eliminate one of events that truly integrates the football team with the rest of the student body each spring.

It's not my intent to be critical. But I'm just sayin' ...