Jimmy Clausen Has a Bright Future (If he lives to see it)

Boy, losing gets old in a hurry. What can we take from Notre Dame's 31-10 loss to the Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley? Here are my thoughts following the game, in no particular order.

Jimmy Clausen is the real deal. He is amazingly poised for a young quarterback. He had command of the offense, can make all the throws, and generally makes very good decisions. His future at Notre Dame (and beyond) looks very bright, provided he lives to see it. But he still has a learning curve to climb. Some of the six sacks he suffered (for minus 50 yards) were his fault because he held onto the ball too long. A sack is better than an INT, but he has to be quicker to throw the ball away. We had a couple of delay of game penalties that the QB has to avoid. His numbers for the game were 17 of 32 for 144 yards and 1 INT. He missed on some throws, but he also was robbed of a TD pass when Irish receivers dropped two passes in a row in the end zone late in the game. It will be fun to see what he can do when Coach Weis opens the playbook for him. The play calling today was ultra conservative, relying on quick, horizontal throws toward the sidelines. Unfortunately, nobody was breaking any tackles or making guys miss, so all those plays were for very short yardage or even negative yardage. In short, we'll be fine at QB if we can get our other problems fixed.

The offensive line had another poor game, although I thought they played a slightly better game physically than last week. When they were blocking the right guys, they weren't getting physically beat as badly as last week. Mentally I thought it was another dreadful performance overall, despite more plays than last week where they gave an appearance of actually having a clue about what they were doing. Penn State brought a lot of pressure, but not as much as did Georgia Tech. Yet, there were far too any instances of PSU defenders running free into the backfield. Added to last week's woes this week were way too many penalties committed by the offensive line. False starts and holding penalties killed off drives when we were moving the ball, or killed them off before they even started. Against Georgia Tech I felt the guards were the biggest problem. Today it was clearly our tackles. Sam Young had numerous egregious mental errors, and left tackle Paul Duncan was just plain getting beat by the outside rushers. The running game never got going. Running backs were greeted by defenders well before getting back to the line of scrimmage. Much of my pre-season expectations revolved around our young but talented offensive line being able to at least drive block to establish a power running game. So far the power running game is completely AWOL. Call me old fashioned, but I really think you ought to be able to run over your opponent when the occasion calls for it. I never really though I'd miss Darius Walker, but I do.

Travis Thomas was a liability today. He ran the ball six times for 12 yards, and got flagged for a 15-yard personal foul when he was beating up a helmetless PSU player laying on the ground after a punt play. What the hell was up with that TT? That display by TT looked much worse than the personal foul Justin Brown was ejected for last week, and I can only assume the referee didn't see the whole thing or Thomas would have been tossed. Thomas lost his starting RB role to Armando Allen this week. Thomas has not looked good carrying the ball, and he just lacks the speed to reach the corner. He looks like a linebacker playing RB.

Where's Waldo? Better yet, where's Aldridge? We desperately needed to establish a power running game today, yet I only saw James Aldridge line up at RB on one play (when he fumbled). Did Coach Weis bench him because of the fumble? Or was something else going on?

Golden Tate is going to be a star. He flashed his speed when he got juked running down on kick coverage, then turned and ran down PSU's speedy A.J. Wallace 68 yards later at the 27 yard line, saving a touchdown. He showed great hands and tremendous play making ability when he out-maneuvered a PSU defender to catch Clausen's longest pass of the day, even though the completion was negated by a penalty.

Duval Kamara is going to be great, but he is still raw. Kamara had some chances today to make plays, but couldn't hold onto the ball. One chance was a perfectly thrown jump ball in the back of the end zone that clanked off his hands and cost ND a late TD.

David Grimes is a solid receiver, but I'm not yet convinced he's a solid #1 receiver. I expect Parris (or Kamara or Tate) to establish themselves as the true #1 guy soon.

Zibby looks good on the punt returns, when he actually returns them. He is fair catching much more often this year, and I wonder why? Is Coach Weis trying to avoid injuring him? Is he trying to avoid a costly turnover deep in our own end of the field?

Junior Jabbie got a little more time at RB today. He seems to the designated QB protector on obvious passing downs, but also looked good on his one carry for 5 yards.

Our defense is good enough to win games, if the offense carries it's fair share of the load. Unlike the O-line, the defense does not have a "tempo" problem. They came out playing with very high energy, and put Notre Dame ahead early with a fantastic interception return for a touchdown. I was impressed with how quickly and how well all the defenders turned into blockers after Walls pulled down the interception. That was a good indicator of solid coaching by Corwin Brown and his assistants. Here are the numbers on Penn State's offensive drives:

First Half

• 4 plays, 11 yards (Walls INT)
• 2 plays, 13 yards (fumble recovered by Brockington)
• 6 plays, 0 yards (punt)
• 9 plays, 22 yards (punt)
• 6 plays, 51 yards (PSU TD)
• 6 plays, 5 yards (punt)
• 1 play, 7 yards (fumble recovered by Laws)

Second Half

• 4 plays, 7 yards (PSU Field Goal)
• 3 plays, minus 9 yards (punt with Zibby's 47 yard return)
• 7 plays, 65 yards (PSU TD. Drive included 51 yard pass completion)
• 4 plays, 11 yards (punt)
• 10 plays, 62 yards (PSU TD)
• 3 plays, 4 yards (punt)
• 4 plays, 38 yards (end of game)
  

Despite playing on a very short field, the defense gave up only one sustained drive in the first half. The remaining PSU possessions ended in three punts, two lost fumbles, and an INT. That is very good defensive play by any measure. The defense started the second half playing well, before giving up the one big play they allowed, a 51 yard pass down the seam that was misplayed by Bruton. Eventually the defense just got tired, and PSU iced the game by running the ball down our throats on a 10-play, 62 yard TD drive. We could still use some depth in the D-line, but I consider the defensive woes of recent years to be largely solved. Right now it's the offense that is killing us.

Were those Big Televen officials? I didn't hear during the broadcast where the officiating crew was from, but they were not helping matters, especially in the first half. Certainly Notre Dame earned the penalties we were flagged for. But did PSU really not commit ANY penalties the whole first half? In particular, I saw several blatant holds that should have been called against the Lions in the first half, but weren't. Late in the first half, with the Irish trailing by a touchdown, Penn State snapped the ball with 22 seconds remaining. Morelli ran for 7 yards then fumbled. Trevor Laws recovered and the Irish had the ball with just 9 seconds remaining. The officials reviewed the play to confirm that Morelli fumbled, but they didn't correct the clock to reflect the time remaining when Laws fell on the ball. The clock should have been stopped as soon as Trevor covered the fumble and the ball changed possession. But it ran for several seconds before the officials realized that Penn State had turned the ball over. It's not a huge deal, but a few more seconds might have given us another play or two to try for a TD or get into position for field goal attempt. I did feel that the game was called more evenly in the second half.

John Carlson has not been enough of a factor in the Irish offense. I suspect it's because he's been held in to help with pass protection since our running backs have not proved able to pick up the blitzers.

Kicking game has been fairly solid. Kick-offs have been acceptable, though not stellar. Place-kicking has been good from short range. Punts have been good. Price didn't have any shanks, and uncorked a couple of long ones. Coverage in the kick & punt game gets an "F" today. Punt team gave up a TD return. Kicking team gave up a 68 yard return.

Anthony Morelli is going to break the hearts of Penn State fans this year. He was only 12 of 22 for 131 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. For those keeping score at home, that's fewer completions, for fewer yards, for a lower completion percentage than some kid named Clausen had today. Morelli looks good when he has all day to throw and wide open receivers. But he was awful under the modest pressure the Irish were able to put on him, and he's going to cost PSU some games with his poor decision making.

Final thoughts. Although the game got away from the Irish in the second half as Penn State's running game wore down our tired defense, I am very optimistic about our new defense under Corwin Brown. They are giving up some yards in the power running game, but they pursue well, get decent pressure on the passer, and have been good in coverage. Like everyone else who has seen them play I am somewhat astonished by our offense, and not in a good way. I think the line made some progress on their "tempo" problem this week, but still have a lot of work to do. When and if the O-line starts to gel, I think we have a quarterback and enough play makers to enable the offense to hold up it's end of the bargain and help the Irish win some games. I only hope that the "gel" thing happens before we're 0-8. The good news is that the Michigan Wolverines are at least as befuddled as we are right now at 0-2 and we actually have chance to go into the Big House and win a game, which I didn't expect was possible two weeks ago.

Can you fix "tempo"?

Okay, it's been a long, painful week of introspection and depression. We got our asses handed to us by Georgia Tech. Congratulations to the Yellow Jackets and Coach Gailey for having his team better prepared to play on Saturday. As Irish fans, we can only wish them well. If Georgia Tech wins the ACC and goes to a BCS bowl game it might make the Irish look just a little less pathetic than we feel right now. Just a little.

But we have to go on the road this week and play a Nittany Lions squad that believes they are all that and a bag of chips. They were already feeling pretty good about themselves before they hung 59 points on sacrificial lamb Florida International University. I think I've made my feelings about such scheduling pretty clear already, so we'll have to move past that.

The one arguably good thing that came out of Saturday's debacle is that Coach Weis is done being cute with the quarterback situation. If Demetrius Jones and/or the offensive line had played better on Saturday, we might still be living through the long national nightmare of a continuing quarterback controversy. Watching all three of his quarterbacks under fire convinced Charlie Weis (if he didn't know it already) that the future is now for the Irish quarterback of the future, Jimmy Clausen. One can only hope that the public announcement of the starting QB and a return to an offensive style that the players are more familiar with will contribute to team stability and confidence heading into Happy Valley. I take some solace in the fact that, as bad as last Saturday was, both Evan Sharpley and Clausen showed some ability to move the ball through the air when we were in a passing mode on offense. And when the ball was in the air, the Irish receivers surprised me in a couple of ways. First, they were open! Second, they did a good job catching the ball.

But will Clausen have the time he needs to deliver the ball down the field? As I wrote last Saturday, the Irish offensive line was badly outplayed by Georgia Tech. Watching the game at home, it seemed that our guys were having a very difficult time figuring out their assignment. It seemed to me they were completely confused about who they were supposed to block, thus allowing Tech defenders numerous free runs into the Notre Dame backfield. In talking about the loss, Coach Weis had a different take. It wasn't that our guys didn't know what to do, it was a "tempo" problem.

“It isn’t just the players playing each other, it’s handing the speed of the game. You can simulate it in practice the best you can, but obviously they did a much better job than we did of handling the speed of the game. They controlled the tempo with their defense versus our offense.”

And again -

“I thought the speed of the game, especially the offensive front against their defensive front, we were playing at two different tempos.”

What does that mean? Is that like "Well, Mr. and Mrs. Domer, it's not that little Johnny can't read. He actually reads very well. It's just that he reads at a slower tempo than the other children."

Oh, is that all?

And, more importantly, can you fix a "tempo" problem? Because if we don't fix our "tempo" problem I have a very strong feeling that this could be an issue down the road. Like this week in Happy Valley. Or in Pasadena. Or when the Trojans come calling.

This "tempo" issue has been discussed before here at OC Domer. Following the fan appreciation day practice in August I posted my thoughts on what we learned (or didn't learn) from that public practice. Included in my ramblings was the following:

It seemed to me that the line play was only going about 80% speed. Very little real smash-mouth going on. That, and the poor overall quality of the video posted at UND.com (too small, too grainy) makes it very difficult to evaluate line play. So I won't try.

Much has been made of the coaches requiring the defense to "run" a lap around the field when they lined up with only ten men on one play, as though the coaches were really cracking the whip. I was disappointed in how most of the guys dogged it on the lap. They pace was very slow, and many of the guys cut the corners in the end zones. I know the guys are fatigued after a week of camp, but maybe the reason USC and LSU run laps around us on game day is that we don't really "run" our laps at practice. Practice slow and play slow. Maybe I'm being unfair and too harsh, but that "lap" bothered me.

So maybe we've had a tempo problem for a while. If so, I am really disappointed. Living in Southern California, I am subjected to a rather steady stream of USC coverage. I've built up some immunity to it and no longer break out in hives. One common, recurring theme from those who visit Trojans' practices is that they are impressed by the high tempo of USC practices. If I know that one of the distinguishing characteristics of the current top program in the country is their high-tempo practices, surely that word has gotten out to the coaching community. Why wouldn't we (Notre Dame) be trying to emulate that? And if we are trying, why isn't it translating to Saturdays? Is it because we're coaching it wrong? Or is it because our guys are just too slow to play at that higher tempo? I sure hope it's the former, because coaching techniques can be fixed. If it's the latter, we're in serious trouble, because you can't teach speed.

It's commonly said that teams will improve the most between their first and second games. I hope that's more true of the Irish than Penn State. In my pre-season expectations post I felt that the Irish matched up pretty well with Penn State, strength on strength, weakness on weakness. I still feel that way, although one of the strengths I was counting for Notre Dame was an offensive line that would "have it's way" with PSU's defensive front. I certainly don't expect that anymore. I expect to see a Notre Dame team that has dramatically improved from week 1 to week 2, but that still has a way to go. We compete, and we return to respectability, but we lose by a touchdown.

Offensive Line Offensive in Loss to Georgia Tech

A week ago I posted my general expectations for Notre Dame's 2007 football season. With regard to the offensive line I wrote, in part:

We don't have Brady Quinn at quarterback any more. We don't have Darius Walker, who could see disaster coming through the line and side-step it like a matador. We have three inexperienced quarterbacks who will need time to throw the ball. If they aren't given time, we will see interceptions, fumbles, and sacks. We have largely inexperienced running backs who will need actual holes to run through. If those holes aren't there, we'll see negative-yardage runs and fumbles in the backfield.

In short, Notre Dame's fortunes this year are riding on the offensive line. We have to be able to reliably run the ball for 4 yards or more on first and second downs. We can't be in third-and-long situations. Third and long means an all-out pass rush, with young running backs trying to pick up the blitzers, and a young QB throwing the ball down field to young receivers trying to find a soft spot in the nickel or dime zone defense. That is not a high percentage situation. We have to be able to mix pass and run as we choose to, not have it dictated to us by the down-and-distance situation. On short yardage, we don't want our young QBs running the sneak. We want to give the ball to TT, or Schwapp, or Aldridge, or Hughes and know that we can get two yards. Obviously, in the passing game, the QB will need more time to throw than Brady Quinn had last year. If the offensive line can control the line of scrimmage, if the Irish can run the ball with authority rather than finesse, then I think we can have a very good year.

But John Latina had better make sure his resume is current. Because if the O-line fails to produce this year, he will be next year's Rick Minter.

In looking at our chances in this game against Georgia Tech, I wrote:

On offense, the Irish will have to be able to run the ball early and often. GT defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta is an evil genius of the blitz and will feast on our young quarterbacks if we get ourselves into "must pass" situations. If we can mix pass/run on our own terms, and not on Tenuta's terms I think we win it. As I wrote yesterday, it all comes down to how our offensive line plays. If we can control the line of scrimmage and neutralize Tech's blitzing schemes with an effective power running game, we'll be successful.

Well, I was right and I was wrong. I was absolutely 100% correct about how important the play of our offensive line was going to be in this game. I was 100% wrong in my expectation that the young offensive line would get the job done. They did not. Georgia Tech's defensive scheme had our offensive linemen thoroughly confused most of the time, and when our guys did have their assignments correct, they were generally beaten one-on-one. There were a couple of drives when the offense showed glimpses of being able win at the point of attack, but for the most part the Yellow Jacket defense played the entire game in the Irish backfield, making it very difficult for the quarterbacks and running backs to make plays. We're lucky to get out of the game without any of the QBs being carried off on a stretcher.

The defense was largely bend-but-don't-break, giving up yards (especially in the power running game) but not giving up the big play, and showing heart in the red zone. The offense just let them down today.

During the game I jotted some notes on my impressions of Notre Dame's play. I'll set them out here, without the benefit of reviewing the tape or checking the stat sheet. As Coach Weis likes to say "I can only go by what I see." By tomorrow I will no doubt have more perspective, but these are my thoughts right now.

First Half

Anthony Vernaglia made the start at outside linebacker. I wrote in the Spring about Anthony's somewhat disappointing career so far. I also wrote that if Corwin Brown could turn Vernaglia into a productive football player it would be a very good early sign that he is going to be heck of a coach for Notre Dame. After one game, AV looks to be a good fit in the 3-4. He was flying around and made some good plays. I didn't notice any egregious errors. Congratulations to him on making the starting lineup and having a good game.

As I mentioned above, the defense in the 1st half was very much bend but don't break. They were giving up chunks of rushing yards, but the pass defense was pretty solid. The defense was, as expected, more aggressive and featured more varied blitzes.

Offensive line did not play well. Pass blocking (including blitz pick-up) was deplorable. Run blocking was non-existent early, showed moments of success later in the half.

Travis Thomas is the starting running back, but he is NOT the man. Aldridge and Allen are the guys.

The kick return game is exciting. Armando Allen was a step away from breaking a big one a couple of times.

Demetrius Jones has good wheels, but it is clear to me that Coach Weis has very little confidence in him as a passer. It was fun to watch the West Virginia wrinkles that Weis put in for Jones (with some success) but you have to stretch the field and threaten the defense with the pass once in a while or they load up the line of scrimmage and you have no chance. Jones only attempted three passes (one complete for 4 yards). I wrote on Wednesday that starting Jones at QB was the Riverboat Gambler play, that it would be "outhouse or castle" as Coach Weis likes to put it. Well, the Riverboat Gambler lost today, and it was definitely "outhouse" instead of "castle." I understand starting Jones behind an over matched offensive line so that he can avoid some of the pressure. But why not roll him out and throw the ball down the field? Why start him if you don't have confidence that he can be multi-dimensional?

Sharpley can play QB for this team. He made good decisions, was very cool under pressure, threw the ball well, and is very tough. Loved it when he picked up the fumble (without putting a knee down) and completed the pass near the goal line. Very savvy. But the O-line needs to protect him. Watching him get pounded explained why Jones got the start. It wasn't about the quarterbacks, it was about Georgia Tech's aggressive defense and our porous offensive line.

Geoff Price did not punt today as well as he is capable of, and it hurt us. He needs to settle down (which he did later).

The defense showed me some real heart by holding GT to field goal attempts throughout the first half. Good sign for the future.

Justin Brown's personal foul and ejection showed very poor judgment on his part. You don't like to see that from a senior, and the timing was really poor. If we get the ball there we're still very much in the game.

I liked the Notre Dame commercials at half-time. "What would you fight for? We're the Fighting Irish." Glad to see the administration embracing our Fighting Irish heritage rather than distancing the University from it.

Second Half

We kicked the ball into the end zone! From the 30! Yippee! Hope we see a lot more of that.

Georgia Tech running back Tashard Choice was faster than Maurice Crum to the edge. I'm not sure what the scheme is that has inside linebacker Crum responsible for outside contain, but he wasn't fast enough for that assignment today. Choice ran right by him to the outside for big gains several times, including a 44-yard run.

Travis Thomas is NOT the guy. (STAT Check: He carried 7 times for -8 (that's negative 8) yards.)

Our offensive linemen are laying on the ground while the QB is getting sacked. They're going low and the defenders are simply jumping over them.

Junior Jabbie made an appearance at running back, apparently because he knows how to pass protect (blitz pick up) better than the other backs. He had no carries.

The Irish defense was able to get GT into 3rd-and-long pretty regularly, and generally held. (GT was 4 of 13 converting on third down).

The Irish run defense was pretty good on "pursuit" plays, but they had a lot of trouble stopping the power runs off tackle.

Our offensive guards had a very tough time picking up the right defender to block. Again and again they were double-or-triple teaming a blocked defender (usually to their inside) as an unblocked rusher went right past them to the outside.

At 8:46 left in the 4th Qtr, here comes Jimmy Clausen. I guess that answers those who predicted a redshirt year for JC. He throws a long ball incomplete past DJ Hord, and his arm did not fall off his body.

At 7:49 of the 4th Qtr, we wave the white flag and punt on 4th and 2. We start emptying the benches and playing our depth.

The defensive backs played a solid game. Coverage generally very good, no big pass plays. I really thought David Bruton looked good. But, GT quarterback Bennett missed several opportunities to gash us.

Clausen's arm may not be 100%, but his passes looked as lively as Sharpley's throws. The long out-pattern to Wil Yeatman (10 yards) looked especially zippy.

Clausen looked calm and composed out there, except for the one play when he forgot to put his mouthpiece in. The play when he rolled out to his right buying time before stepping out of bounds showed real maturity.

Final score: Georgia Tech 33, Notre Dame 3.

Final Thoughts

The defense looks like it will be good enough to win games if the offense can hold up it's end of the bargain. Clearly Sharpley outplayed Jones at QB. But Clausen looked good as well. If Sharpley and Clausen are essentially even, why not put Jimmy in there and get the quarterback of the future the reps he'll need to lead the Irish to championships? He looked very calm and generally in command, and I think he has a stronger arm. We're fine at RB with Aldridge and Allen, and the receiving corps looked pretty good, with the youngsters (Parris and Kamara) coming on strong.

Next week I think we'll see a more "normal" Irish offense, with a different starter at QB. We won't waste a full half with just a handful of pass attempts. Although Penn State doesn't figure to blitz and stunt on defense as much as the Yellow Jackets, you have to expect them to do it more than normal until our O-line shows we can counter it. And if Coach Weis and Coach Latina can't get those guys working better as a unit in a hurry it's going to be a long eight weeks until the bye week.

Walk of Shame, Part II

Yesterday I wrote about how shameful it is that many of the most elite programs in the country open the season against woefully over matched foes who are willing to go on the road and get abused in exchange for a paycheck and some national exposure. I likened it to the frat boy taking advantage of the shy chubby girl at the party who had too much to drink. Some thought my post was a little strong, and it was meant to be (although I didn't want to offend anyone).

Well, look what happened to frat boy Michigan today. He put the moves on the pitiful shy girl at the party, and woke up handcuffed to her radiator and missing a kidney!

Who's overrated now, Michigan fan?

Yes, the Irish got handled today. But at least we played and got beat by a team that will end the season ranked in the Top 25 and playing in a Bowl game, instead of a team that will end the year in the Div. I-AA playoffs.

The Walk of Shame

So how do you feel this morning, frat boy? You're buttoning up your Tommy Bahama shirt, and you found your Rainbows under the bed. You've got a splitting headache and it doesn't seem as clever now as it did the night before, when your buddies dared you to put the moves on the shy girl in the corner. The one who was a little overweight, who wasn't dressed as cool as the other girls. Who really blushed when you started talking to her. She was glad of your attention and too nervous to decline the Cape Cods you kept bringing her. She didn't know how to react when you offered to walk her home as the party was winding down. She really didn't know how to react once her bedroom door closed and you pulled her close. You used her, made her your dirty girl for the night, and now as you sneak out the door and look back at the bed, you can't even look her in the face. Instead you notice the bright stains on the sheets. You're pretty sure she's still asleep, but just before the door clicks shut you hear her ask, "Will you call me?" Yeah, jerk, she actually likes you. Down the hall and through the kitchen, her house mates give you cold stares as you head back to your dorm.

Are you really going to brag about this? Can you really look yourself in the mirror and be proud of your conquest?

Yeah, I'm talking to you Louisville (defeated Murray State 73-10). You too, Rutgers (defeated Buffalo 38-3). When you run the table on your schedules, are you really going to count these games as "wins"? Are you going to claim you deserve to play in a BCS Bowl game because you humiliated two of the worst teams in college football? Heck, most of the Top 25 ought to be ashamed. USC opens with Idaho. I honestly expect the Trojans to score 100 points in that game. West Virginia plays Western Michigan. Texas plays Arkansas State. Michigan hosts Appalachian State. Urban Meyer's Florida gators are really putting it all on the line, beginning their title defense against Western Kentucky. The Ohio State Buckeyes renew their intrastate rivalry against Div I-AA power Youngstown State (actually, it's the first meeting between these schools). The Penn State Nittany Lions open against Florida International University, generally expected to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference.

These programs, all of which hope to be considered "elite" when January rolls around, ought to be ashamed of themselves. Writing checks to doormat programs to guarantee yourselves a nice home "win" to start the season is not the way "elite" programs should operate.

OC Domer Fantasy NFL League is Open

I realized earlier today that I've been so busy with other things that I haven't joined any NFL fantasy football leagues for this season. So I have created a custom league at ESPN.com. I'm in, my brother is in, my son is in, and MAYBE my Dad will give it a shot. At any rate, we'll have six or seven open slots for any OC Domer readers who would like to join.

I set it up as an auto-pick league, since there is no way I can coordinate a live draft for a group of ten random people who could be located anywhere in the world (even Poland!). Draft will take place early Tuesday morning, so you have all weekend (3-day weekend) to rank your players before the draft. I've tweaked the scoring a bit so be sure to take it into account when preparing for the draft.

If you'd like to enter a league with a bunch of newbies (myself included), send me an e-mail (my e-mail address is in my "profile" linked to the right) and I'll have one of the league invites sent to you.

Outhouse or Castle

Mr. Jones and me staring at the video
When I look at the television,
I want to see me
staring right back at me
We all want to be big stars,
but we don't know why
and we don't know how
But when everybody loves me,
I'm going to be
just about as happy as can be
Mr. Jones and me, we're gonna be big stars...

Speculation about who will start as Notre Dame's quarterback against Georgia Tech on Saturday afternoon has just about reached a fevered pitch. Whispers and rumors right now seem to be coalescing around Demetrius Jones. I have said all along that I thought it would be Evan Sharpley, based upon his time in the system and what we are told is his better command of the offense and better passing in the Spring and in Fall camp. Sharpley would be the safe play. He would be the conservative pick.

But we know there is just a little bit of a riverboat gambler deep inside Charlie Weis. Well, maybe not so deep inside. And the riverboat gambler play is Demetrius Jones. Although the public hasn't been allowed to see it, Jones is by all accounts a charismatic playmaker. Coach Weis has said when you don't have dominant personnel you don't want a "caretaker" at quarterback. You don't want a game manager. When you have inexperienced personnel, or when the talent level isn't going to roll over opponents, you need to have a playmaker at QB if you're going to have a chance to win more than the games you're "supposed to" win.

Jones may be that guy. It would seem unusual for Coach Weis to turn the reins over to a QB who has been erratic in his few public playing opportunities (Blue & Gold Game, Fan Appreciation Day, Student Appreciation Day). His modus operandi until now has been control the ball, move the chains, play field position, don't turn it over. If he turns to Jones, I think we're going become the midwestern equivalent of the Bronx Bombers. We aren't going to be playing station-to-station baseball anymore. We're going to be playing long ball. Coach Weis will be looking to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers and have them make BIG plays.

Which means we're going to see a lot of the young guys very soon. Like Armando Allen and Golden Tate returning kicks. Like Allen and Robert Hughes in the backfield. We'll see Duval Kamara catching passes. I think we'll see Jones on the move in a scheme with a distinct Appalachian flavor. Coach Weis would not have visited West Virginia without a very good reason.

"Outhouse or Castle" was the phrase Coach Weis used in describing his decision to put two freshmen back to receive kicks. As he said, "something big is going to happen." Whether it will be something big in a good way or a bad way remains to be seen. If Weis goes with Jones, the whole season could be "outhouse or castle." We could be a big-play team that wins some huge upsets. Or we could very dramatically implode. Either way, it will be very exciting.

Welcome DomeWire Readers!

When I first fired up OC Domer I sent the folks at DomeWire.com a couple of e-mails, to see if they wanted to include the blog and our posts in their coverage of Notre Dame football. It seems somebody finally opened up the in-box, because today they threw up links to more than two dozen OC Domer posts and added us to their list of Notre Dame blogs.

So, welcome DomeWire readers!

And thanks, DomeWire, for the links!

(I'll be adding DomeWire to the OC Domer blogroll ASAP!)

The Orgy of USC Love is Starting

Do we really have to start reading and listening to all this crap again? From an article in the Washington Times which asks: Is USC's defense the "The Best Ever Assembled"?

"You watch their tapes, and you don't know whether to laugh or cry," said Dennis Erickson, beginning his first season with Arizona State after superb stints at Washington State (1987-88), Miami (1989-94) and Oregon State (1999-2002). "Their defense is like a horror film for opponents. I coached some pretty special groups at Miami, but I think USC's group this year is on another level."

Over the last two decades, three college defenses — 1992 Alabama, 2001 Miami and 2003 USC — have sent nine or more starters to the NFL. Thanks to an unprecedented three consecutive No. 1 recruiting classes, USC's current crew has equal experience, more speed and considerably more depth than any of those three.

"There is no question in my mind that USC is the best team in the country and maybe the best team in the history of college football," first-year Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh said. "They're outstanding offensively and absolutely off the charts defensively."

But of course, Stanford bows down to no one, right Coach Harbaugh?

Actually, if you read the article you can't help but think that USC's defense could present a bit of a problem to opposing offenses. Even those with a genius calling the plays.

OC Domer 2007 Season Expectations (Game-by-Game)

Intro. As I wrote in yesterday's post, I am not close enough to the program or knowledgeable enough about football talent, systems, and match-ups to "predict" what will happen as the Fighting Irish play through the 2007 schedule. But as an alumnus, a very interested observer, and devoted fan of Notre Dame football I definitely have some expectations about what we'll see from this team in Charlie Weis' third year at the helm. A lot has been written about the success great Notre Dame coaches have had in their third year, but I do not put too much stock in it in Coach Weis' case. Previous coaches taking over the program at least had significant talent on the roster to work with. Using better coaching, the likes of Ara Parseghian, Dan Devine, and Lou Holtz were able to win championships using a lot of the players brought into the program by their predecessors. As much of a disappointment as Gerry Faust was, his recruiting classes were generally very highly regarded. Coach Weis had to follow Ty Willingham. The senior class is very small and the talent level in that class is not up to Notre Dame standards. Compounding the issue is that Coach Weis and his staff got a very late start on their first recruiting class. Although they did a pretty good salvage job, that class was not very big and is not ranked as highly as the next two classes were. Thus, while my expectations for this team are high, I think expectations of a run at the National Championship are unrealistic. Without further ado, here is how I see 2007 unfolding.

Georgia Tech (Sept. 1 @ Home). It's hard to get a good read on the Yellow Jackets. I've seen them ranked as high as #14 in the country (Athlon Sports), but most pre-season rankings have them in the low-to-mid 30's, typically just a few spots above the Irish. The latest AP poll has them at #27 (ND is #38). The USA Today/Coaches Poll also has GT at #27 (Irish are #29). But, of course, despite everyone ranking GT ahead of Notre Dame, the Irish head into the opener as a 2.5 point favorite with the odds makers. Go figure. It's easy to dismiss the Yellow Jackets, but it would be a mistake. They won the Coastal Division of the ACC last season, beating out a very good Virginia Tech squad for the honor. Ironically, almost everyone expects improved quarterback play for GT now that four-year starter Reggie Ball has moved on. The loss of All-Universe wide receiver Calvin Johnson certainly hurts the Ramblin' Wreck, but aside from losing Ball and Johnson they bring almost everyone else back from last year's talented team. The Irish defensive front seven will be facing a talented and veteran offensive line and will have to try to stop a very highly regarded running back in senior Tashard Choice (1,473 rushing yards in 2006). Likewise, the Tech defense returns eight starters and will have a significant advantage in experience over the Irish quarterback, running backs, and receivers. It's easy to forget that Notre Dame was trailing Georgia Tech 10-0 last year before the Irish finally got on the board with a quarterback draw from the 5-yard line with 11 seconds remaining in the first half. Notre Dame was able to take Calvin Johnson out of play in the second half with some defensive adjustments, and we squeaked out a 14-10 win.

Tech will probably be a better team this season than they were last year. The returning experience from a very good team, improved QB play, and a more balanced offensive attack led by Choice will make them better on offense. The defense will be improved by virtue of maturity. Have the Irish gotten better? I believe Corwin Brown will revitalize the defense. Choice will get his yards, but we'll keep the Tech passing game largely under control. On offense, the Irish will have to be able to run the ball early and often. GT defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta is an evil genius of the blitz and will feast on our young quarterbacks if we get ourselves into "must pass" situations. If we can mix pass/run on our own terms, and not on Tenuta's terms I think we win it. As I wrote yesterday, it all comes down to how our offensive line plays. If we can control the line of scrimmage and neutralize Tech's blitzing schemes with an effective power running game, we'll be successful.

Two factors weigh heavily in our favor for this opening game. The first is the "Talent Gap." Irish Round Table had a very nice post recently setting forth the differences in talent level between Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, using star rankings from Rivals.com. By some measures, the disparity in talent between these two programs is greater than the difference between Notre Dame and USC last season. Star rankings may not mean much in an individual case, but on a more macro level I think you have to give it some credence.

The second factor is historical. I wrote at length recently about how Notre Dame quarterbacks have done over the years in their first start. Whoever Coach Weis has chosen, I like our chances. According to my research, Notre Dame quarterbacks making their first ever start in a season opener are 11-0 in my lifetime. (I originally had it as 12-0, but a reader correctly identified Joe Theisman's first start as being late in the 1968 season rather than the 1969 opener). Add in the fact that we play this game in our house, and I am confident of a Notre Dame win. I expect a close game, relatively low scoring, Irish win by a touchdown. Call it 24-17.

Penn State (Sept. 8 @ State College). The Irish leave the friendly confines of Notre Dame Stadium and travel to the middle of nowhere Pennsylvania to take on the Nittany Lions, who will be coming off an opening bye week scrimmage game against Florida International. The strength of Penn State's team figures to be its offense. Senior Anthony Morelli returns at quarterback, as do most of his receivers. But the starters at running back are unproven, and PSU is rebuilding the left side of it's offensive line, even bringing in some JUCO players to help them out. The defense will likely be good, but not as good as last year. The defensive line and secondary will see a lot of new faces. Matching the Lions up against the Irish, we see Morelli and his experienced receiving corps passing against the strength of the Irish defense, our secondary. Our linebackers and D-line should be able to handle their new starters at RB. On the other side of the ball, our offensive line should have it's way with a very young defensive front, and our young QB and receivers should be an even match against PSU's rebuilt secondary.

We blew out PSU (41-17) in our place last season. While the Irish were clearly the better team, we weren't THAT much better. Notre Dame did a great job of making the Lions pay when they turned the ball over, and it got out of control pretty quickly. I don't expect an Irish blowout again. Notre Dame played PSU for twelve straight seasons from 1981 through 1992. In that stretch, three games were "blowouts". (ND by 37 in 1984, PSU by 30 in 1985, PSU by 22 in 1991). Two out three times the loser in the blowout came back the following year and won the game. (PSU in 1985 and ND in 1992).

Is it just me, or does Penn State seem way overrated to you? The pre-season AP poll has them at #17. The USA Today Coaches poll has them at #18. For a team that has significant holes to fill on both the offensive and defensive lines, they seem to be getting a lot of love. I thing we match up really well with Penn State. Our offensive line will control the line of scrimmage, and we will run the ball right at them very effectively. The young secondary will begin to over-commit to the run game, and Sharpley will victimize them with big plays over the top. On defense, our front seven controls the run and gets decent pressure on Morelli, making it tough to make plays down the field against our DBs. Our defense will be disruptive enough to force a couple of turnovers, but first-big-game-on-the-road-jitters will probably lead to a fumble or two from the Irish as well. By and large we control the line of scrimmage, although Morelli makes a few plays. I expect a workman-like win by Notre Dame, 21-13. The loss drops PSU out of the Top 25, and Notre Dame cracks the polls for the first time.

Michigan (Sept. 15 @ Ann Arbor). Have Chad Henne and Mike Hart not earned their PhDs yet? Michigan is ranked #5 in both the AP and USA Today polls, and indications are that they deserve to be there. Michigan opens the season with Appalachian State (seriously) and then Oregon (both at home). I think Oregon will play well enough to put a little scare into the Wolverines (who may be looking ahead) and we will see an opponent with renewed focus. The Irish travel to the Big House to take on a team that whipped them 47-21 last season in Notre Dame stadium, and most of the pieces on Michigan's very potent offense remain in place. Henne, Hart, and Mario Manningham figure to pose a serious test for the Notre Dame defense, even though the Wolverines are rebuilding the right side of their offensive line with the latest crop of 300-pounders. Notre Dame will probably be able to move the ball against Michigan, as the Wolverines return only 4 starters on that side of the ball. The question is whether we can move the ball enough to outscore a UM offense that figures to hang some points on us.

Notre Dame has played Michigan 23 times since World War II (starting in 1978). ND is 12-10-1 over that stretch. Only twice in those 23 games has the margin of victory been greater than 20 points. (2003 and 2006). In fact, wins by more than ten points in this series (since WWII) are somewhat unusual, having occurred in only 7 of those 23 games (including the two 20+ pt. blowouts). 16 of 23 games have been decided by fewer than 10 points. In the six 10+ point victories, the losing team has come back the following year to win the game four times and earned a tie one time. Only once has the loser by more than 10 points (UM in 1987) failed to come back and win the game the next year (1988). Even an unranked Ty Willingham team was able to beat UM 28-20 in 2004 after losing 38-0 in 2003.

I expect Notre Dame's defense to have trouble with Michigan's O-line. UM should be able to run against the Irish with the power game, and a pass rush that has trouble pressuring Henne will leave the secondary vulnerable to some big plays. On offense, I think the running game that was successful against GT and PSU will bog down, and we'll be forced to go to the air pitting our young QB and receivers against UM's very young secondary. If the O-line can give our QB some time, I like that match up. In the end, although I expect it to be a close game, I think the Wolverines control the line of scrimmage. We lose the field position battle because we can't kick the ball into the end zone. We also get bit because we miss at least two very makeable field goal attempts. If Demetrius Jones hasn't played much at QB before now, I expect that our need for a playmaker will cause Coach Weis to insert him in the second or third quarters to bring a spark to the offense and throw UM's defense off balance. It's another epic game in the series, but the Irish fall by less than a touchdown, 30-24.

Michigan State (Sept. 22 @ Home). I respect Michigan. I respect USC. But I can't stand the Spartans. There is no logical reason for Sparty to have as much success against Notre Dame as they have enjoyed, but like old gum you just can't scrape them off the bottom of your shoe. The Irish, behind a heroic effort from Brady "Can't Win the Big Game" Quinn came back from a 16-point deficit at the beginning of the fourth quarter to break the Spartans' little green hearts and send their coach to the asylum, all in a torrential rain. After the debacle against Notre Dame in front of their home crowd, Michigan State went off the rails. They have a new coach, a new quarterback, are learning a new system, and are picked by many to finish tenth of eleven teams in the Big , er, Ten? They return to Notre Dame Stadium for the first time since planting their vile flag in the turf there following a victory over the Irish in 2005, Coach Weis' first year. Regardless of personnel, regardless of match-ups, I expect Notre Dame to crush the Spartans every year. MSU will run the ball against us behind a very big O-line, but the new QB will struggle in his first big test, facing the hostile Notre Dame crowd on the road after games against UAB, Bowling Green, and Pittsburgh at home. The Irish offense will run the ball outside against undersized defensive ends and will pass at will against young cornerbacks along the sidelines. The Irish are excited to be back home and explode on Sparty, winning 35-17.

Purdue (Sept. 29 at West Lafayette). In a classic case of good news / bad news, the Boilermakers look to return nine starters on each side of the ball. The offense expects to be very dynamic in the spread passing game, with a speed running game largely as a complement. This match-up seems to be a good one for the Irish, who have much improved depth in the secondary and who have switched to a 3-4 scheme with emphasis on more speed at LB. The key will be whether Corwin Brown's defense can generate enough pass rush to prevent veteran QB Curtis Painter from picking the secondary apart. On the other side of the ball, the pundits basically label Purdue as "soft." The phrase "pushed around" gets used a lot. This plays right into Notre Dame's new smash-mouth philosophy on offense. The Irish play keep-away, control the ball and shove it down the Boilermakers' throats. Time of possession is very lopsided in Notre Dame's favor in a slightly lower-scoring replay of last year's game. Irish win 31-20, while trying not to look ahead to Pasadena.

UCLA (Oct. 6 @ The Rose Bowl). With a 42-yard touchdown pass from Quinn to Samardzija with less than 30 seconds remaining in the game, the Fighting Irish salvaged an important comeback win over the Bruins in last year's matchup in South Bend, 20-17. Quinn is gone. Samardzija is gone. This year the game is being played in the historic Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. And almost every Bruin who had to swallow last year's bitter pill will be back to right what they undoubtedly feel was a horrible wrong. UCLA is ranked #14 in the AP pre-season poll, and #17 in the USA Today poll. They return ten (10) starters on both offense and defense from a team that shocked the world with a 13-9 win over the USC Trojans in Pasadena last season. They held the Trojans to just 9 points with a fast, aggressive defense that refused to let Trojan QB John David Booty get comfortable in the pocket. Credit Quinn's modest success against this defense to his incredible maturity and experience, which none of the current Notre Dame quarterbacks have accrued yet. A glimmer of hope can be taken from UCLA's inconsistent play last year. Despite a win over USC and a near win over Notre Dame, UCLA lost at Washington, at Oregon, against Washington State, at California, and in the Emerald Bowl against Florida State. So they have a history of losing focus and losing games they should win. Do you think the Bruins will lack focus when Notre Dame comes to call?

UCLA hosts the Irish the week after a road trip to Oregon State, which can be a very tough place to play. The Beavers likely catch the Bruins looking ahead and either beat them or put a real scare into them. The Notre Dame game is by far the biggest game on the Bruin schedule up to that point, and they follow our game with a bye week. They are going to be ready for us, and they are going to have one thing on their minds: Payback.

The Bruin offense is nothing special. Solid QB, solid RB, solid receivers, but nobody that strikes fear into opponents' hearts. The question will be whether the Irish offense can get anything done against that defense, which played it's best ball late in the season. This is another game that highlights the importance of the offensive line this season. To neutralize UCLA's defensive speed and take advantage of an undersized, though quick, front seven the O-line needs to take control of this game and we have to be able to ram the ball down the Bruins' throats. Big, strong running backs like Travis Thomas, James Aldridge, and Robert Hughes need to bring the lumber. We won't be able to outrun the defenders to the perimeter. Screens and draws won't work. We need to go right at them and run over them. Then, when the linebackers are committed to stopping the run, and the defensive backfield starts cheating up to help out, we can take some shots in the passing game. If the offensive line can establish control of the line of scrimmage, then we can win this game. If not, if we get behind or are forced by down and distance to drop back and throw, then we are in trouble.

This game worries me. It is one of a pair of swing games in the middle of the season (along with Boston College) which will largely determine how successful Notre Dame's season is. Win both, and a 10-win season is very possible. Lose both and eight wins becomes the best case scenario. Split them and we're likely 9-3. I think we split them. I think the Irish arrive in Pasadena excited about the chance to play in the historic Rose Bowl, but tired. It's the sixth straight game without a break on a schedule that is brutally tough. We have a young team, and it's the second straight game on the road. We're probably a little banged up. UCLA will be jacked up and the Irish will be unable to match their intensity. The game will be close, but a couple of key turnovers to DeWayne Walker's defense and failure to cash in on stalled drives with field goals means the Irish lose a close one, 24-21.

Boston College (Oct. 13 @ Home). The game against BC is the second of the two swing games in the middle of the season that worry me. The Eagles are ranked #28 in the AP poll and #26 in the USA Today poll. They had a nice 10-3 campaign last season in what was really a down year for the ACC. They bring back a decent quarterback in Matt Ryan who played much of last year with a broken foot. They were 50th in the nation in total offense and 34th in total defense. They have a new head coach after Tom O'Brien bolted for N.C. State. I expect Notre Dame's new defensive scheme to be in full bloom by this point in the season and handle the Eagles' quality but not dynamic offense without much difficulty. On offense, we're going to have to change things up and win this one through the air, as there will little room to run. Boston College expects to start two defensive tackles that weigh in at 343 and 337 pounds, and the linebackers are a veteran group that is stout against the run.

Since I anticipate a likely loss at UCLA, I think the Irish bounce back with a solid win and a very balanced performance against BC. Footballs will be in the air and we'll see some scoring. Notre Dame 31, Boston College 17.

[NOTE: If the Irish pull out the win at UCLA, then the BC game is a potential trap game. A letdown after a UCLA win, plus looking ahead to the Trojans a week away would likely mean a Notre Dame loss.]

Southern California (Oct. 20 @ Home). Everyone's pre-season #1 comes to South Bend for Notre Dame's eighth straight game without a bye. Thanks Dr. White! The Trojans are loaded. Although UCLA caught lightning in a bottle and shocked the Trojans last year, this is still a team that beat the Brady Quinn-led Irish by 20 points last season and who embarassed Michigan in the Rose Bowl 32-18 (that was the Michigan team that beat the Irish by 26 points). Although they return only 5 starters on offense, those five include the QB, John David Booty, who is being hyped for the Heisman Trophy. They have 5-star Blue-Chippers coming out of their ears, including 10 9 tailbacks that could likely start for almost any team in the country. They return ten starters on a defense that many predict will be Coach Pete Carroll's best ever. The good news is that the NCAA has turned down Coach Carroll's petition to allow USC to put more players on the field in order to give all their talent an opportunity to play. So he has to live with only playing 11 guys at a time.

Do the Irish have a chance? I mentioned previously how unusual blowouts are in the ND-Michigan series. The opposite is true for Notre Dame and USC. The Fighting Irish and the Trojans have played each other 61 times since World War II (resuming play in 1946). Notre Dame is 32-25-4 in those games. Of those 61 games, 19 games had a margin of victory of 20 points or more - almost 1/3 of the time! Of those 19 blowouts, the losing team has come back the following season to earn a win 8 times and a tie 1 time. Thus, nearly half the time a team gets blown out in this series (since WWII) they redeem themselves the following year. So a Notre Dame win is not at all out of the realm of possibility.

I know Coach Weis would sorely like to find a way to get this series turned around, to get back the one that got away in 2005. But I think the talent gap is still too large, especially with regard to experienced players. When Brady Quinn & Co. almost beat the Trojans in 2005 he was in his third year of playing quarterback full time. This year we'll be led by a player in his first year, and possibly in one of his first games depending on how the season plays out. I think we will have more success with the power running game, enabling us to control the ball a little better and display a more balanced attack. I think the defense will be improved and the secondary will make USC work harder for their touchdowns. I think the "gap" is closing. (Shall we name it the "Davie-Willingham Gap"?) I think the game is undecided at half time, but the Trojans talent and depth eventually wear us down and we lose by just under two touchdowns, 30-17.

And then we get our bye week. Better late than never?

Navy (Nov. 3 @ Home). I think it's good that we continue to honor Navy because of all they did for Notre Dame during the war years. But Coach Weis doesn't fool around with these lesser foes. The Irish beat the Middies soundly but respectfully, 35-10.




Air Force (Nov. 10 @ Home). No disrespect to the Cadets or the USAFA (my Dad is a '63 graduate of the Academy), but when did they become a permanent fixture on the Notre Dame schedule? I'd like to see if we couldn't replace them with another mid-major. Irish beat the zoomies soundly but respectfully, 34-16.





Duke (Nov. 17 @ Home). I wish Duke was better. Duke, along with Notre Dame, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Northwestern, and a few others are among those schools that are ranked among the best academic schools in the nation and who also field Div-IA football teams. I like the idea of these similar schools playing each other and supporting each other's programs, sort of like the Ivy League but with 4- and 5-star players. Alas, Duke is most assuredly NOT better and we beat the Blue Devils handily, 48-13.




Stanford (Nov. 24 @ The Farm). Stanford is better than Duke, barely. I actually expect new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to do some good things in Palo Alto. But it's going to take a while. His team went 1-11 last year and Stanford has no easy W's on the schedule. Notre Dame controls both side of the line of scrimmage (as well as the ball) and starts running out the clock midway through the second quarter. Irish 38, Stanford 16.

Bowl Game. At 9 wins and 3 losses, the Irish don't get selected to go to a BCS Bowl, and instead get to play in a respectable bowl game against an opponent they can beat. Having solved our big-play problems on defense, and having healed up from the brutal first eight weeks of the schedule, Notre Dame handily wins it's first bowl game since New Year's Day of 1994.

Final Results: With young but talented players all over the field, and with new defensive coordinator Corwin Brown, the Irish basically win the games they won and lose the games they lost in 2006 (UCLA being the exception). But we don't get blown out by anyone. We aren't a Top 5 program yet, but at 10-3 overall, we end up just outside the Top 10 in the final polls of the season. Entering 2008 we are a Top 10 team fighting to become an elite Top 5 program.

Conclusion. So, this is how I see the season playing out. Is it a prediction? Not really. It's just a thorough explanation of where I see the program and what I think I'm going to see. Might Charlie's Fighting Irish exceed my expectations? They could. The offensive line could be dominant, the QB play spectacular, the young receivers amazing. The front seven could be energetic AND stout. We could beat Michigan and UCLA, we might even surprise everyone with an improbable win over the Trojans. On the other hand, the O-line might not be what we need it to be. The young QBs and receivers might sputter. The front seven might give up too many yards in the running game. If that happens, we could lose to Georgia Tech, Penn State, MSU and BC. It could be a disaster. But, as one sage once said "That's why they play the games."