Bye-week Recap: How Bad is it Really?

One and seven. 1-7. Eight games played, one victory. One W, seven Ls. Winning percentage: .125. Six games below .500.

No matter how you slice it, the first eight games of the 2007 campaign have been an utter disaster for the Fighting Irish. There's no way to dress it up, to somehow salvage a silver lining or a handful of moral victories. Sure, you can trot out some excuses, but you'd only be deluding yourself. By any measure Coach Charlie Weis, his staff, and this team have failed to put a competitive football team on the field. Sure, we've been the underdog in every game played. Yes, we're relatively young and inexperienced. Yes, the talent level of our upperclassmen is not where we expect it to be at Notre Dame. But I've made the point before, and it needs to be made again: There are plenty of other teams playing football with less talent than the Irish who aren't getting embarrassed every week. After eight games, Notre Dame is a team that cannot pick up a yard on 3rd-and-1. We still have no bread-and-butter plays. Every toss sweep, off-tackle dive play, and 5-yard out pattern is an adventure. While the defense is, I think, good enough to win games, it isn't good enough to win games by itself, and the offense has, for the most part, been incapable of providing any assistance. The Irish offense simply cannot move the chains.

But how bad is it really? According to Jeff Sagarin, Notre Dame has played the toughest schedule in the country so far this season. We're #1! Also according to Sagarin, Notre Dame is ranked #99 in the country (I generally use Sagarin's "predictor" ratings rather than the more politically correct ratings that throw out margin of victory as a factor). According to Sagarin, The Irish rank just behind Wofford, Elon, Buffalo, McNeese State, UNLV and South Dakota State. Thank goodness we don't have to play any of them.

Clearly, Notre Dame isn't as good as the schedule it has played (Thanks Dr. White!). But I don't think there are 98 teams in the country better than the Irish. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. So I want to just do a quick breakdown of the Irish schedule to date to see how depressed we should really be, or perhaps even to look for some kernel or nugget of hope that we can cling to for the future.

Week 1: Georgia Tech, @ Home.
OC Domer pre-season expectation: "Irish win by a touchdown. Call it 24-17."
OC Domer pre-game expectation: Same.
Las Vegas line on the game: Georgia Tech by 1 pt.
Actual Result: Irish lose by 30 (33-3), with 122 total offensive yards, including a net minus-8 yards rushing.
Georgia Tech today: #39 in Sagarin, 5-3 record (2-3 in the ACC). Barely a Top 40 team today, a 30-point loss to this team really stings. When you consider that Coach Weis had the entire off-season to get ready for this game and bungled it so badly, it's hard to find anything good coming out of this contest.

Week 2: Penn State, @ Happy Valley.
OC Domer pre-season expectation: "I expect a workman-like win by Notre Dame, 21-13."
OC Domer pre-game expectation: "We compete, and we return to respectability, but we lose by a touchdown."
Las Vegas line on the game: Penn State by 17.5 pts.
Actual Result: Irish lose by 21 (31-10), with zero net rushing yards.
Penn State today: #30 in Sagarin, 6-3 record (3-3 in Big 10). Penn State was a nice story for a while, but the losses to Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State clearly indicate that they aren't anywhere near the elite team that many PSU fans were hoping for this year. A 21-point loss to a #30 team is nothing to feel good about. But it's better than a 30-point loss to the #39 team, I guess.

Week 3: Michigan, @ the Big House.
OC Domer pre-season expectation: "It's another epic game in the series, but the Irish fall by less than a touchdown, 30-24."
OC Domer pre-game expectation: "Notre Dame wins by a touchdown, 24-17."
Las Vegas line on the game: Michigan by 9.5 pts.
Actual Result: Irish lose by 38 (38-0), with 79 total offensive yards.
Michigan today: #26 in Sagarin, 7-2 record (5-0 in Big 10). After losses to Appalachian State and a very good Oregon team to open the season, Michigan has won seven straight games and is clearly a very solid football team. Losing to the Wolverines is no disgrace, but losing by 38 points is another matter.

Week 4: Michigan State, @ Home.
OC Domer pre-season expectation: "The Irish are excited to be back home and explode on Sparty, winning 35-17."
OC Domer pre-game expectation: Undecided. "I'd feel very fortunate if we can at least look respectable in a 34-20 loss to Sparty." AND "Notre Dame explodes all over Sparty, crushing his little green heart, 31-17. Years from now we will all look back on this game as the day the new era of Irish football began."
Las Vegas line on the game: Michigan State by 10 pts.
Actual Result: Notre Dame loses by 17 (31-14), but actually shows some sign of life, with 117 net rushing yards and two offensive touchdowns.
Michigan State today: #48 in Sagarin. 5-4 record (1-4 in Big Ten). Mired near the bottom of the Big Ten rankings, Michigan State is a pretty medicore football team. Not horrible, just not very good either. The good news is we actually played some credible football against Sparty. The bad news is we still lost to a pretty weak team by 17 points.

Week 5: Purdue, @ West Lafayette.
OC Domer pre-season expectation: "Irish win 31-20, while trying not to look ahead to Pasadena."
OC Domer pre-game expectation: "Notre Dame manhandles Purdue and gets its first victory of the season, 31-27."
Las Vegas line on the game: Purdue by 21.5 pts.
Actual Result: Irish lose by 14 (33-19), but actually out-gain the Boilermakers 426 yards to 371. For the first time, Notre Dame plays above expectations.
Purdue today: #29 in Sagarin. 7-2 record (3-2 in Big Ten). Purdue is a decent football team, but they didn't put up much of a fight against Michigan (48-21 loss) or Ohio State (23-7 loss).

Week 6: UCLA, @ The Rose Bowl.
OC Domer pre-season expectation: "Irish lose a close one, 24-21."
OC Domer pre-game expectation: Notre Dame wins, close.
Las Vegas line on the game: UCLA by 21 pts.
Actual Result: Irish WIN by 14 points! (20-6).
UCLA today: #19 in Sagarin. 5-3 record (4-1 in Pac 10). You want to feel really good about the win over the Bruins. And we do. But you can't get too excited. UCLA is perhaps the most inconsistent team in the country, and the Bruins played most of the game against us without their top 2 quarterbacks. With their #3 QB in the line-up, this obviously isn't a Top 20 team. Washington State (Sagarin #75) beat the Bruins by 20 yesterday (27-7). The Irish were 3 of 17 on 3rd down conversions and had just 140 total yards. The defense won this game, not the offense.

Week 7: Boston College, @ Home.
OC Domer pre-season expectation: "Footballs will be in the air and we'll see some scoring. Notre Dame 31, Boston College 17."
OC Domer pre-game expectation: "I expect a great game, and although it will be closer than I expected in my pre-season analysis, I do think the Irish get a VERY, VERY important second win tomorrow."
Las Vegas line on the game: Eagles by 13.5 pts.
Actual Result: Notre Dame loses by 13 (17-14), with 27 net rushing yards and 222 total yards. Notre Dame played a strong second half and actually made a game of it until late. Except for the UCLA win, the best game of the year for Notre Dame.
Boston College today: The polls love B.C., they are #2 in the BCS (before Thursday's win over VaTech). Sagarin has them at #16. Either way, at 8-0, the Eagles are a very good football team. I don't think they're elite, but they are Top 10 in my opinion. The fact that the Irish actually played ball with the Eagles and made a game of it is a very good sign.

Week 8: USC, @ Home.
OC Domer pre-season expectation: "Trojans talent and depth eventually wear us down and we lose by just under two touchdowns, 30-17."
OC Domer pre-game expectation: "If we can rattle them, anything can happen."
Las Vegas line on the game: Trojans by 16.5 pts.
Actual Result: Irish lose by 38 (38-0), mustering 165 total yards and turning the ball over three times.
USC today: Sagarin #15. 6-2 record (3-2 in Pac 10). With losses to Stanford and Oregon, the Trojans no longer dominate the Pac 10 conference, although they are still a very strong football team. Losing to USC is not a disaster. Getting shut out and losing by 38 at home is a disaster.

Conclusions: It is very tempting to grab onto Notre Dame's #1 ranking in strength of schedule and conclude that the Irish have simply run into a buzz saw schedule-wise, and that if we had played a more balanced slate of games we would not look nearly as bad. But I'm not so sure. Yes, the Irish looked decent for stretches against a very good Boston College team. But take a step back. The win over UCLA came against a walk-on QB. We "competed" against a Spartan squad that is barely a Top 50 team, and still lost to them by 17. Purdue is barely a Top 30 team and they beat us by two touchdowns. Against a single win we have losses by margins of 30, 21, 38, 17, 14, 13 and 38 points. In our eight games we have scored 3, 10, 0, 14, 19, 20, 14, and 0 points. Are we the 99th best team in the country? No. But I don't think we're any better than about #50, either.

The future: The Irish faithful have been clinging to the notion that after our ridiculous eight-game gauntlet to start the season we would win the last four games. Navy, Air Force, Duke, Stanford are all "easy Wins." But are they?

• Navy: #80 in Sagarin (19 spots above Notre Dame) with a 4-4 record. Navy put up 52 points against Delaware yesterday. The Irish have scored 53 points TOTAL in our last four games.

• Air Force: #58 in Sagarin (41 spots above Notre Dame) with a 6-3 record. USAFA has defeated TCU, Utah, Colorado State and Wyoming.

• Duke: Sagarin #85 with a 1-7 record against the 4th toughest schedule in the country. Duke beat Northwestern and lost to Wake Forest by 5 and Miami by 10.
  

• Stanford. Sagarin #61 (38 spots above the Irish) with a 3-5 record including a win over USC. You remember - the USC that beat us by 38 points last week.

How many of these opponents would the Irish be favored against today? By how much? I believe the Irish will win these four games, but I'm not taking anything for granted. Not until I see us finally run over somebody.

How bad is it really? It's so bad that I'm writing a blog post publicly wondering whether the Fighting Irish of the University of Notre Dame can beat Duke. At home.

I Flew 2000 Miles for That? (USC Review)

As I mentioned in my hastily-written USC preview post, I took my family back to South Bend for the USC game. We don't get back there very often to see Irish home games, but we were offered tickets, and the timing worked out pretty well since we wanted the OC Daughter to see the campus again before she starts filling out college applications a year from now. So we took a red-eye out of LAX to Chicago (via Atlanta), grabbed a rental car, and made it to Notre Dame by mid-afternoon on on a cool, gray Friday. First stop was the bookstore, then the rest of campus. We watched the Band rehearse their step-off, and sat in on the Glee Club's Friday afternoon practice, which was really neat. Then we visited the grotto and walked around St. Mary's Lake to my old dorm, Carroll Hall. By then it was getting late, we were really tired, it was getting cool out and we were starving. So we called it a night and went to dinner. As we were walking back to our car, a gentleman approached me somewhat tentatively. I was pretty sure he wanted to ask me a question, but he seemed a bit reluctant. Finally he asked "Are you OC Domer?" I wasn't sure how to react. "Yes I am. How did you know that?" He told me that he reads the blog regularly and that he recognized my kids from the pictures I have posted here! What an amazing memory he has. He was very nice and complimented the blog, and I thanked him for reading. How weird was that! If you're still reading after Saturday, friend, it was great to meet you!

The next day dawned gloriously. Bright blue skies and a perfect autumn day. I, of course, had been promoting my theory that the key to an Irish victory was heavy snow. Thus, my theory was not going to be put to the test. Instead Notre Dame and USC fans alike were to be treated to the most perfect day you could imagine for a college football game. We headed back to campus around 1:00. We wandered for a bit enjoying the sights and taking some pictures, eventually making it over the the Knights of Columbus Hall where we bought our steak sandwiches for lunch. Then we listened to the Band concert on the steps of the Architecture building and finally followed the band as they stepped off for the stadium. I took over 500 pictures in two days, and have selected the best of the bunch for a slide show which is embedded below. Click on any of the pictures to open a new window that will let you see the entire album in full size.

As you can see from the photos, it was a fantastic weekend to be at Notre Dame for a football game (or for anything else).

Unfortunately, the football game did not live up to its setting. I felt, going into the game, that the Irish actually had a chance against a banged up Trojan squad playing behind a second-string quarterback. That theory pretty much fell by the wayside when it turned out that many of the key USC players who had been nursing injuries felt just fine on Saturday. In particular, the Irish were really hurt by the fact that Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing seemed to be at full strength. As you know, I was at the game, and haven't seen any recordings of it, so I don't have any benefit of instant replays or announcers' analyses. All I can relay to you are some of my impressions from being present in the stadium.

A couple of things are clear at the outset. First, USC should never have lost to Stanford. They are much too talented for that. Second, this Notre Dame football team is getting emotionally fragile. They play hard as long as they still feel they are in the game, but once a few breaks go against them you can sense (from the crowd as well as the team) the "here we go again" fears creeping in. In my estimation, Notre Dame (especially the defense) was mentally and emotionally in this game until late in the second quarter. Down 14-0 and starting a "drive" with 1:57 left in the half, the Irish were faced with a 3rd-and-1 situation at our own 23 yard line. A poorly thrown ball to Kamara fell incomplete and the air went out of the balloon. We punted and USC went on a 70 yard drive in 1:30, capped by a field goal with 11 second left in the half. At 17-0 it was "Game Over."

Evan Sharpley was definitely NOT Evan Spark-ley. He looked exactly like Jimmy Clausen, holding onto the ball too long, unable to make the decisions on where to throw it. Looking at my photos today, I don't think we can lay it all on the O-line. While Sharpley certainly didn't have the time and space that Mark Sanchez had, and while he was frequently under pressure, he also had numerous plays where the protection was sufficient to complete a pass. The problem in many cases seemed to be that (1) nobody was open, or (2) receivers were open, sometimes wide open, but Sharpley never saw them. There were also accuracy and hands issues. All-in-all, anything that CAN go wrong with the passing game DID go wrong.

Although the defense clearly broke down in the second half, it was once again the futility of the offense that was the major culprit. Our defense is not good enough to win games all by itself, but it is good enough to win games if the offense can help just a little bit. But the offense has been utterly unable to provide that help.

I'm not going to break down the numbers in this post, but rest assured that they tell largely the same story we have seen all season - Notre Dame's offense cannot do anything. They can't sustain drives by converting third downs and moving the chains, and they can't score with the big play. Against USC the Irish only moved the ball late in each half. At the end of the first half USC was playing a very soft prevent defense, and Sharpley completed a few balls underneath. At the end of the game, USC had it's reserves in the game and we moved the ball down to the USC 25 before the drive sputtered out. How absolutely miserable it was to stand in Notre Dame Stadium and hope that Notre Dame could score a touchdown in the final seconds of the game so that they could avoid a shut-out and only lose 38-7 instead of 38-0. Humiliating.

I don't have any answers. I only have questions. How is it that we can't move the ball at all? We can't reliably execute an off-tackle run, or a toss sweep. We can't throw and catch a quick slant, a ten-yard out pattern or a seven-yard crossing route. We still can't get a single yard when faced with a crucial 3rd-and-1. How can it have gotten this bad?

Right now I am only clinging to one hope: We can't be as bad as we have looked. We've played an extraordinarily tough schedule against Top-25 teams. We aren't a Top-25 team right now, so we're 1-7. But we aren't the 90th best team in the country either, and we'll do fine over the last month of the schedule. Wins over Navy, Air Force, Stanford, and Duke will bring the Irish faithful back in off the window ledges and we'll start looking forward to next year, when all the pain of this season will bear fruit. I hope.

Final kneel-down. Pathetic Irish whipped 38-0. Very hard to watch.

Evan at QB

The Band Plays

Spectacularly beautiful day on campus.

Spectacularly beautiful day on campus. So much for my snow game strategy. Steak sandwiches at K of C. Band about to play.

Notre Dame Our Mother

Cheer, cheer...

Good to see her again.

Road Trip for a Home Game (USC)

I'd like to write a comprehensive preview of this Saturday's Notre Dame - USC tilt, but time is short. An old and dear friend of my wife's family called about a month ago and said he had some USC tickets with our name on them. (He's a fairly prominent Alum who lives in South Bend). Some quick work with Orbitz.com revealed that if we were willing to fly at strange hours we could actually make the trip happen within the OC Domer family budget. So we take off tonight from LAX at around midnight and get to Chicago tomorrow morning, then we fly home from Chicago at about 6:00 a.m. Sunday. Factoring in the drives between Chicago and South Bend and spending as much time as possible on campus Friday and Saturday, it looks like we might be able to get a little sleep Friday night, but that's about all.

I'm taking my camera, so I'll take about a thousand pictures and put the best of them up here in a slide show like I did after the UCLA game. I won't be able to post normally until Sunday night at the earliest, but I hope to make some remote posts (including live pictures!) using my cell phone throughout the weekend, so check back in with OC Domer to see how the weekend is going.

The Domer Law Blog has a nice USC preview up, and I pretty much agree with his analysis, including this:

This is the granddaddy of them all, the greatest rivalry in college football.

It's become cliche, but it is often true that when these two teams meet, you can throw out the records.

[...]

Despite the fact that the matchups appear to favor the Trojans, I simply refuse to allow myself to believe that we will lose this game. It means too much to the players and coaches for them not to come out and play the game of their lives on Saturday morning.

I'm hoping that a couple years from now, when we are celebrating our 12th national championship, I'll be able to say that I was in Notre Dame Stadium for the turning point in this program, when the Irish started something special that woke up the echoes, not just for a fleeting week or two, but for good.

This week could serve as the foundation for the building of a dynasty. It's that important.

I can't add much to that.

As a resident of Southern California, the USC game is always huge. Neighbors, co-workers, friends are all USC grads and/or fans. My wife's family is littered with USC alumni from her Dad, to her aunt, to her brother. Radio and television is saturated with Trojan coverage year-round. For a Domer in the OC there is no bigger date on the calendar than the date of the USC game - it means an entire year of bragging rights or humility depending on the outcome.

Notre Dame heads into Saturday a total mystery. Instead of numbers on the awful green jerseys they will be wearing they ought to be wearing question marks. Youth and inexperince all over the field. At quarterback we're trotting out the third guy this season to make his first-ever collegiate start. The defense is steadily improving, and shows flashes of brilliance, but they are still giving up big yards.

The offense has been woeful, despite glimmers of potential. Everyone is hoping that Evan Sharpley can be Evan Spark-ley and get the Irish on the board early so we aren't playing catch-up in the second half, again.

USC comes in proud but banged up. They had their pride tempered significantly by the loss to Stanford, but the fact is that their fans are really looking past this game. They see Oregon and Cal on the horizon, and don't think the Irish present any sort of an obstacle. USC will feature at QB an experienced John David Booty playing with a broken middle finger on his throwing hand, or an inexperienced Mark Sanchez making his second career start. Radio reports here are saying that Sanchez is the likely starter, but there is no way of knowing if Pete Carroll is blowing smoke. The Trojan offensive line is really banged up and may present some real opportunities for our D-line to make some plays, as USC has been prone to both turnovers and penalties this year. USC has other guys injured all over the field, which has led to erratic and un-inspiring play for much of this season (including the big loss to Stanford).

Bottom line: Both of these teams are a snake-bit this year. They are not playing at levels that they are accustomed to historically. They are making mistakes and feature youth and inexperience on both sides of the ball, albeit talented youth and inexperience. The way I see it, the home field advantage for Notre Dame is huge this week, especially if Sanchez is at QB for USC. If Notre Dame stadium can present a truly hostile environment for the Trojans, I think this year's team can be rattled. And if we can rattle them, anything can happen.

I can't even remember what year it was, but a few years ago my wife and I went back for the USC game with her brother, his wife, and another USC couple. It was a cold, drizzly, miserable day in Notre Dame stadium. It was clear early on that neither the Trojans nor their fans had any interest in playing a football game in those conditions. USC was flat and uninspired and the Irish won in workmanlike fashion in front of a bunch of happy home fans and miserable Southern Californians. The weather forecast right now is calling for cool weather and some showers on Saturday. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, but as far as I am concerned, the colder and wetter the better. Think snow!

Go Irish! Beat the Trojans!