Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Will it be a "Super" Tuesday?

I voted on the way to work this morning, "yes" on Mitt Romney and "no" on everything else (Indian gaming, term limits funny business, transportation and community college funding tweaks). I had hoped to glean from my visit to the polls some insight as to how the day might go. I was very surprised that at 8:00 a.m. I was almost the only person casting a ballot. Poll workers easily outnumbered actual voters at that moment. So, I concluded, shockingly low turnout. Interesting.

When I got to work, my secretary reported that she had voted on the drive in as well. Her polling place was jammed with voters. Huh. Which means turnout is somewhere between "very low" and "very high." Not very helpful.

But then I thought about it a bit more. I live in Orange County, in a pretty Republican district. Low turnout in my area probably means low interest among Republican voters. This is not surprising since, as I have noted before, the slate of candidates being offered to GOP voters is not very inspiring. If Republican turnout is low, that probably means big trouble for Mitt Romney (who needs GOP voters) and good news for McCain (who has been winning GOP primaries on the strength of non-GOP, Independent support).

My secretary lives in Los Angeles, in an area with a large minority population. Heavy turnout there makes sense since the Hillary v. Obama contest is much more interesting and impassioned. Judging from the results in South Carolina, heavy Democrat turnout in minority areas of Los Angeles is probably very good news for Obama, and very bad news for Hillary.

So, based upon anecdotal data taken from two polling places, I'm calling California for McCain and Obama.

1 comment:

Joshua B. Mack said...

I voted Huckabee in Los Angeles today and there were maybe 10 voters. I was the only republican who voted at that time.